Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Deal with the facts. You can ignore countless votes in the HoC all you like. They are still facts that you have to deal with.

Facts will always trump opinion.

Fact: the Brexit referendum did not give a mandate to politicians leave the EU. It was advisory, not binding.

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

not to respect referendum results would fundamentally undermine credibility in UK politics.

:pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: ... and you think that using funny money to manipulate the results of a non-binding referendum, and then to have one party decide to embark on Brexit without any coherent plan, and then to have one politician decide to shut down parliament so that he can have his (revised, new improved) vision of Brexit forced on the country; that none of that undermines credibility in UK politics? :rolleyes:

ArmaniJeanss

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Keeping a close eye on twitter this afternoon.

Elections two months don’t they? Do they do snap elections over there? Could it be held sooner than the 31st?

35 days is the minimum figure to remember (from when QE2 gives the go-ahead).
So 7th October is now the earliest election possible.
But in reality it's at least couple of days more than that (has to voted on etc)
Also it will likely be the next Thursday after the 35 days.

BarryD2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Really struggling to understand what world you're living in, or what news your listening to, or what forums you're reading - but for the last four years, contributors to this forum have been saying that things will not be grand..

With all due respect to you, a couple of dozen random posters on a boards thread does not constitute the Irish public or represent public discourse in same. You might as well write on a jacks door.

It's plain to be seen and heard that the average citizen of this Republic, like many citizens of the UK are totally bored out of their trees with BREXIT. It's just boring background noise for them and frankly they're more interested in what happened to the guys and gals of Love Island etc. As regards Brexit they hear Coveney drone on about backstops and their eyes glaze over.

We have had almost unanimous united support here from all political parties for the Gov strategy. Sometimes unanimity is good, sometimes it's not so good as people get lazy and don't challenge inherent assumptions. Until the consequences hit them in the face. Maybe that explains the unanimous approach by other parties, they figure this ain't going to end well for FG and then they can stick the boot in and get their own bums in the seat?

trellheim

Seriously lads think for a moment. They cannot call a GE unless Labour agrees. Since Labour has always wanted one they are betting Labour will go for it. Since Corbyn has now come over to 2nd Ref this is all a ploy to make Labour out to be the bad guys

swampgas

seamus wrote: »

That might be the plan. "Nobody's to blame because we were all out campaigning when we should have been saving our economy!".

Not so easy now though. Johnson needs the support of 2/3rds of the house or a vote of no confidence.

I can't see the HoC giving him a free pass to let no-deal go through by inaction, and the opposition can scupper any no confidence motion.

They might force Johnson to be sitting in the captain's chair as the ship goes down.

Presumably it would be easier to amend or repeal the FTPA with a 50%+1 majority if getting 2/3rds looked tricky? Surely at this stage anything that breaks the deadlock must be considered.

ToBeFrank123

trellheim wrote: »

I am quoting TBF123 here. I personally believe this is the cause of all the problems with Brexit and why it is so divisory.

1. The referendum choice includes no comma, or words after it - the words "fully and entirely" do not appear.

2. Therefore everyone was entitled to define 'Leave' any way they chose , and have felt free to do so ranging from BRINO to No Deal.

3. However 'Easiest Deal Ever' was the phrase de jure . As we have seen this is completely not the case , three years and still not even past WA to pol dec yet.

4. There remains a group of Eurosceptics in the Commons for whom "fully and entirely" is now within their grasp and will do absolutely anything in their power to get it.

5. All they have to do to achieve this end is inertia - run the clock down.

---

1 -5 are facts and not hyperbole. All the sides pretty much agree on this.


Edit : more facts.

6. Boris cannot call a GE ; all he can do is put forward a motion for one and hope 2/3 of MP's vote for it.

7. I'd expect a Cabinet meeting before the resumption of Parliament in any event

Tell us exactly what not fully and entirely leaving the EU means and I will answer that.

Numerous attempts have been put forward in the HoC to begin the process of leaving the EU. All failed.

So unless you have something wonderful to propose that a majority in the HoC can vote for, then nothing has changed.

Do you have something to propose that would get a majority in the HoC?

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

Seriously lads think for a moment. They cannot call a GE unless Labour agrees. Since Labour has always wanted one they are betting Labour will go for it. Since Corbyn has now come over to 2nd Ref this is all a ploy to make Labour out to be the bad guys

He wants one. This just today


https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1168490237351387136?s=21

swampgas

BarryD2 wrote: »

It's plain to be seen and heard that the average citizen of this Republic, like many citizens of the UK are totally bored out of their trees with BREXIT. It's just boring background noise for them and frankly they're more interested in what happened to the guys and gals of Love Island etc. As regards Brexit they hear Coveney drone on about backstops and their eyes glaze over.

If your livelihood is threatened by Brexit, and you tune it out because it's "boring", that's ... what can I say? Darwinian?

kuro68k

kuro68k wrote: »

My understanding is that Parliament needs to pass legislation for an election, so presumably will try to amend it to make sure the date is before brexit...

The fixed term parliament act requires a 2/3 majority to call an early election. So Labour would have to back it - Corbyn has called for an election I believe so it would be hard for him to oppose it.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Because it made No Deal a much greater possibility and also because they took the same side as the likes of the DUP and ERG.

Ultimately they opposed the backstop which is the key point. Not much finger pointing at them though.

May proposed and was in favour of the backstop. Corbyn, SNP, etc opposed it. So who is the bad guy here? From an Irish point of view, May tried to help Ireland with the backstop and Corbyn and SNP wanted none of it. Yet they get off scot free.

Well I don't think Corbyn got off scot free. He's been lambasted for sitting on the fence on brexit, not enforcing a three-line whip on votes and allowing brexiter Labour MPs defy the whip without sanction. But trying to apply blame to the parties in the HoC is equivalent to herding chickens. No party has shown a consistent policy via their MP's voting records on the subject. Focusing on the backstop is just aiming at a moving target. The ERG have admitted that if it were removed, they still wouldn't vote for the WA. You quoted the SNP's objection to the backstop, but ignored their opposition to the WA in general. Like this quote from Nicola Sturgeon:

The withdrawal agreement has lots of flaws within it, and fundamentally, there is no clarity whatsoever about the future between the UK and the EU.The House of Commons is going to be asked to effectively endorse a 'blindfold Brexit', where all the difficult issues that have dogged these negotiations for two-and-a-half years are simply kicked further down the road.
I think it would be a mistake and deeply irresponsible for the House of Commons to endorse that.

swampgas

Excellent animation of cross-border traffic, in The Guardian

Hopefully it helps to visualise what's a pretty distant and abstract border to a lot of people in GB.

swampgas

swampgas wrote: »

If your livelihood is threatened by Brexit, and you tune it out because it's "boring", that's ... what can I say? Darwinian?

So what would you suggest these people do?
Especially when there is no realistic strategy that they can follow.

trellheim

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Tell us exactly what not fully and entirely leaving the EU means and I will answer that.

Numerous attempts have been put forward in the HoC to begin the process of leaving the EU. All failed.

So unless you have something wonderful to propose that a majority in the HoC can vote for, then nothing has changed.

Do you have something to propose that would get a majority in the HoC?

My point was, what I wrote there was fact, which I note you have not disagreed with....

'fully and entirely' did not feature in the referendum choice. This is not debatable - it didn't feature on the ballot.

You are entirely at liberty to take that to mean what you want , my opinion is that this is the heart of the problem - everyone did just that.

Stop moaning ffs

That’s a dramatic drop for the DUP but expected

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1168489976805429248?s=21

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He wants one. This just today


https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1168490237351387136?s=21

There can no longer be any doubt that Corbyn wants brexit in any form, the fact that he thinks he could win an election being fought over the Tories delivering Brexit prior to the repercussions coming into effect is also just insanity

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

There can no longer be any doubt that Corbyn wants brexit in any form, the fact that he thinks he could win an election being fought over the Tories delivering Brexit prior to the repercussions coming into effect is also just insanity

Really? Hes saying exactly the opposite but I don’t know how to read him.

trellheim

He wants one. This just today

Ah lads - pull back from the Brink and THEN GE is what was said. read the article ffs

woohoo!!!

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The backstop with the process to review is the fudge. The border cannot become a bargaining chip in trade talks which is why any time limit implies that it can be. To give here, crossing red lines means giving at Dover Calais. Such would be unacceptable to France. It comes back to this outdated thinking that the big boys decide things while the smaller ones fall into line. The whole point of the EU with common rules and seats at the table for all PMs of member states is the opposite, deliberately, for what reigned in Europe before (and all those wars with different groups manoeuvring for power).

It is up to the UK to come to a solution, given they're the ones leaving and want a deal with the larger remaining bloc.

I think something like that was agreed back in March between the EU and May. The UK Attorney General advised it still didn't give enough legal guarantees the UK could leave the backstop unilaterally. This was enough to swing the vote to another defeat in the HoC.

Hence the reason for a clear legally guaranteed timeline for exiting the backstop, probably after a referendum on the issue or something like that.

An unending backstop just has no mandate in the HoC, this seems to escape a log of people.

Everything bar saying no to a no deal Brexit does not have enough support in HoC, but that won't stop no deal. Forget about everything else, what does the UK want? I've still no idea beyond cake and eat it, on both sides, which no non EU country will ever get. It's better for us to accept a temporary border, than signing anything that leads to a permanent one.

swampgas

Deleted User wrote: »

So what would you suggest these people do?
Especially when there is no realistic strategy that they can follow.

It not what they can do now so much as what they haven't done over the last 2 or 3 years. People need to take some responsibility for their own actions here.

And if there really are no options, then unfortunately you're going to become a casualty of Brexit, like there were many casualties of the financial crash. At least this time round the warnings were there if you were prepared to pay any attention to them.

Zubeneschamali

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Because it made No Deal a much greater possibility

No Deal suits the SNP, since it will bring about the end of the UK through Scottish Independence. Same reason SF are keeping pretty quiet, let the Tories/DUP do the damage, builds pressure to escape from incompetent Westminster rule later.

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Really? Hes saying exactly the opposite but I don’t know how to read him.

He's still refusing to say if he would vote against an election scheduled for after October 31st in the case that the no deal legislation fails

J Mysterio

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Ah I knew a post like this was coming. I point out the facts and someone like you says I'm defending it.

Its like pointing out the facts of a serious crime in the past, and then being accused of condoning it.

Deal with the facts. You can ignore countless votes in the HoC all you like. They are still facts that you have to deal with.

Facts will always trump opinion.

What facts did you mention?

I'm not sure there is anything worth engaging with here to be honest. You like to use metaphors and such but there is no substance and you didnt address my response to your point on the vote. I'm not sure we will be able to debate in a purposeful manner, but - as I mentioned - it was not a legitimate vote and can't be considered one - would you care to address that point?

That point aside, there are several other issues.

It was actually an advisory (non-binding) referendum which was overly simplistic and did not provide a specific mandate. Yes/No for an extremely complex issue with far reaching implications that weren't sufficiently clear. It certainly did not instruct the government to behave like a clown academy and steer toward a crash out brexit.

The referendum itself was run in an unbelievably cavalier manner: no proper oversight as to the conduct of the respective campaigns and no proper referendum commission providing impartial, factual information. You see, the UK arent used to running referendums, and it shows.

Part of the problem was that barely anyone in the UK even knew what the EU was at the point. Many still don't. There were certainly some vague notions that they outlawed bananas of a particular shape. Theresa May bravely triggered Article 50 in a patriotic flourish... but 'without a sketch of a plan'.

The mandate is bollocks. The far right types have been literally making it up as they go along, becoming progressively more obtuse and obdurate. They are spurred on by some bizarre exceptionalism and a nasty, nationalistic media.

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s a dramatic drop for the DUP but expected

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1168489976805429248?s=21

Alliance are gobbling up support from everywhere it looks like. SDLP, SF, DUP and a little bit of UUP. Will be an interesting election in NI if it happens soon.

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Ah lads - pull back from the Brink and THEN GE is what was said. read the article ffs

In fairness, the BBC article is so short that it is unclear exactly what Corbyn is saying.

Here is the whole speech:
https://labour.org.uk/press/29461/

Excerpts:

But first, we face the threat of No Deal which would decimate industry and destroy people’s jobs in those very same regions.

...

So, first we must come together to stop No Deal. This week could be our last chance.

We are working with other parties to do everything necessary to pull our country back from the brink.

Then we need a general election.

...

And in that election, Labour will give the people the chance to take back control, and have the final say in a public vote, with credible options for both sides including the option to remain.



So my read is first, stop Tory shenanigans trying to cause No Deal by default.

Second, hold an election, with a 2nd referendum including Remain in the manifesto.

Third, win the election.

Fourth, hold a 2nd referendum with Remain as an option.

Stop moaning ffs

prawnsambo wrote: »

Alliance are gobbling up support from everywhere it looks like. SDLP, SF, DUP and a little bit of UUP. Will be an interesting election in NI if it happens soon.

It’s brilliant to see the extremes losing out. Alliance set to take 3 DUP seats.
Also this

https://twitter.com/sarmcdonnell/status/1168496622164160512?s=21

Headshot

Anyone see Politics live on BBC today?

We'll that was quite spiky at the end lol

Murph76

So what about the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland? There is no way that they would be able to watch the myriad of streets connecting the two, would they?

Tikki Wang Wang

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone see Politics live on BBC today?

We'll that was quite spiky at the end lol

Any chance you could reference what was said maybe ?

Seth Brundle

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I don't agree with Johnson on much, but I agree that not to respect referendum results would fundamentally undermine credibility in UK politics.

No-one would bother voting again or there'd be p*ss poor turnout in future referenda or elections. "Why bother, they will only ignore the outcome", would be what people say.

But to prorogue parliament thereby undermining the members of the houses from doing their jobs doesn't undermine UK politics?
What about the likes of Gove suggesting that the British government may ignore the laws in place to prevent a no-deal exit (by not ruling it out)? Surely that undermines UK politics?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/01/brexit-gove-refuses-rule-out-ignoring-law-passed-stop-no-deal-

Headshot

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

Any chance you could reference what was said maybe ?

https://www.express.co.uk/videos/6082564310001/Brexit-Owen-Jones-brands-BBC-discussion-self-indulgent