Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

GM228

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Why 6 months?

The Constitution Unit has previously outlined the time frame of 24 weeks and why it takes so long here.

Allowing one week between passage of legislation and the start of the regulated campaign, and a 10-week regulated campaign period, would take the total period from start to finish to 24 weeks

That would seem to be the minimum, the reality is it would probably take longer.

ToBeFrank123

VinLieger wrote: »

Because it takes 24 weeks from start to finish to arrange a referendum in the UK, ive no info why but its the most commonly quoted time frame when anyone who would be involved with organising one discusses it.

I'm guessing its to organise and vote the legislation through parliament, debate the wording, etc. And its right it should take that long, otherwise people can be rushed into something. I think Cameron announced the referendum in early 2015 before the GE. People had plenty of time to discuss and debate it.

Stop moaning ffs

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1168529344098185222?s=21

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Seeing it mentioned a very possible outcome of a GE could be a Tory/BP/DUP alliance.

That’s a whole new hellscape

If the BP split the Tories vote leaving nobody honestly knows how the new parliament will look

Sam Russell

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I could be wrong here but I believe at one stage or another every single party leader in the UK has said the referendum result needs to be respected.

Here's what Corbyn said.

Jeremy Corbyn: 'Brexit result must be respected'

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-result-must-be-respected-a3313661.html

Yep, Tory hating Corbyn said that. He didn't say it was illegitimate, he didn't say it was an opinion poll. He said the result must be respected.

It is possible to respect a result without actually implementing it. For example, you can show respect by explaining why it is a very bad idea to go through with it, because the original result came about by misleading information or even by deliberate lies.

Court decisions are respected even when they are overturned on appeal.

If a referendum was passed to bring back hanging, no self-respecting Western Government would implement such a result. A popular result is not necessarily a workable result.

Zubeneschamali

I think an election before Brexit Day will go badly for the Tories - Leavers will split to support the Brexit Party as Johnson has failed, Remainers will be energized by the possibility that a Remain Alliance can stop Brexit altogether.

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

If the BP split the Tories vote leaving nobody honestly knows how the new parliament will look

I’ve heard farage say he’s support Johnson but only if the entire WA was dropped. But Farage says a lot of things.

kuro68k

So frustrating that Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and all the other remain leaning parties can't get their act together. If there is a GE then they need to beat Boris who will be standing on a platform of delivering brexit no matter what, nullifying the BP vote.

They need unity to win.

LuckyLloyd

Johnson doesn’t have the power to enact any legislation
He doesn’t have the power to stop any legislation
He doesn’t have the power to call a general election himself

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think an election before Brexit Day will go badly for the Tories - Leavers will split to support the Brexit Party as Johnson has failed, Remainers will be energized by the possibility that a Remain Alliance can stop Brexit altogether.

But an election that was 'forced' on him? By 'remainers'? Couldn't get more brexity than a man standing for an election that he's tried to avoid and looking for a majority to implement the 'will of the people' and thwart the remoaners. I could write reams of manifestos on those talking points alone. There would be something compelling for brexiters in supporting the only party that can deliver brexit. Because Brexit Party Limited can't do that on their own.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

But an election that was 'forced' on him? By 'remainers'? Couldn't get more brexity than a man standing for an election that he's tried to avoid and looking for a majority to implement the 'will of the people' and thwart the remoaners. I could write reams of manifestos on those talking points alone. There would be something compelling for brexiters in supporting the only party that can deliver brexit. Because Brexit Party Limited can't do that on their own.

Indeed BUT thanks to FPTP if the BP do split the conservative vote it gives the other parties a better chance to take some previously secure conservative seats, but they would need to agree to a non aggression pact like was done in Wales for the by election where they dont compete against each other for these seats

Bit cynical

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I could be wrong here but I believe at one stage or another every single party leader in the UK has said the referendum result needs to be respected.

I think the LibDems have always been for some sort of second referendum. But yes, Labour outwardly respect the referendum result.

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed BUT thanks to FPTP if the BP do split the conservative vote it gives the other parties a better chance to take some previously secure conservative seats, but they would need to agree to a non aggression pact like was done in Wales for the by election where they dont compete against each other for these seats

Which I'm sure both parties are aware of. Hence Farage suggesting the Tories give the BP free reign to stand in Labour leave constituencies. They'd be mad to stand against each other because the end result would be likely to result in neither winning the seat.

Bit cynical

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is possible to respect a result without actually implementing it. For example, you can show respect by explaining why it is a very bad idea to go through with it, because the original result came about by misleading information or even by deliberate lies.

The problem with this is that, though we can speculate, we actually don't know why other people voted the way they did. You or I might vote a particular way but we not obliged to explain our choice to anyone.

GM228

Interesting note at the bottom of the "Brexit negotiations: update" document from today's Cabinet meeting according to Sky News:-

"My concern is that they are not under any real pressure to engage on solutions until they know the process is not being taken over by parliament," - author

farmchoice

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think an election before Brexit Day will go badly for the Tories - Leavers will split to support the Brexit Party as Johnson has failed, Remainers will be energized by the possibility that a Remain Alliance can stop Brexit altogether.

this is the gamble Johnson has to take. he has worked since the summer to convince the brexit party types that he is gung ho enough for them. his lunatic brexit credentials are there for all to see. he has done things farage would never even have considered. he can say to the brexit party voters ''i have balked at nothing to get you what you want, i even called an election to get one over on corbyn now support me to get this over the line.


he is bizarrely popular in the UK and there is every change he will get his majority. then its''goodbye the dup, hello border down the irish sea''



or he loses the election and corbyn cobbles together a confidence and supply with the SNP and the greens and plaid and alliance in the north. he then gets to own brexit while johnson leads the charge for the pro brexit betrayed.

corbyns government is doomed to failure for a myriad of reasons and Boris is back in power in 18 months to 2 years after remain win the second referendum 51 to 49. johnson promises to work to reform the EU from within and to halt any advances towards federalism.

ToBeFrank123

Corbyn couldn't be dumb enough to go along with a snap election?

Labour are miles behind in the polls. And an election would likely guarantee a No Deal Brexit as the clock is wound down.

farmchoice

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Corbyn couldn't be dumb enough to go along with a snap election?

Labour are miles behind in the polls. And an election would likely guarantee a No Deal Brexit as the clock is wound down.

corbyn is mad for an election, but he would be mad to fall into this trap alright, but then a lot of people not least in his own party say he's a bit mad.

ToBeFrank123

farmchoice wrote: »

this is the gamble Johnson has to take. he has worked since the summer to convince the brexit party types that he is gung ho enough for them. his lunatic brexit credentials are there for all to see. he has done things farage would never even have considered. he can say to the brexit party voters ''i have balked at nothing to get you what you want, i even called an election to get one over on corbyn now support me to get this over the line.


he is bizarrely popular in the UK and there is every change he will get his majority. then its''goodbye the dup, hello border down the irish sea''



or he loses the election and corbyn cobbles together a confidence and supply with the SNP and the greens and plaid and alliance in the north. he then gets to own brexit while johnson leads the charge for the pro brexit betrayed.

corbyns government is doomed to failure for a myriad of reasons and Boris is back in power in 18 months to 2 years after remain win the second referendum 51 to 49. johnson promises to work to reform the EU from within and to halt any advances towards federalism.

Even if he won a majority there is no guarantee the ERG will play ball after the election. They could still oppose any deal, including one with border down the Irish Sea. Some Conservatives might do this too. Its very difficult to get a deal that suits even the whole of the Conservative party.

Borderhopper

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

What facts did you mention?

I'm not sure there is anything worth engaging with here to be honest. You like to use metaphors and such but there is no substance and you didnt address my response to your point on the vote. I'm not sure we will be able to debate in a purposeful manner, but - as I mentioned - it was not a legitimate vote and can't be considered one - would you care to address that point?

That point aside, there are several other issues.

It was actually an advisory (non-binding) referendum which was overly simplistic and did not provide a specific mandate. Yes/No for an extremely complex issue with far reaching implications that weren't sufficiently clear. It certainly did not instruct the government to behave like a clown academy and steer toward a crash out brexit.

The referendum itself was run in an unbelievably cavalier manner: no proper oversight as to the conduct of the respective campaigns and no proper referendum commission providing impartial, factual information. You see, the UK arent used to running referendums, and it shows.

Part of the problem was that barely anyone in the UK even knew what the EU was at the point. Many still don't. There were certainly some vague notions that they outlawed bananas of a particular shape. Theresa May bravely triggered Article 50 in a patriotic flourish... but 'without a sketch of a plan'.

The mandate is bollocks. The far right types have been literally making it up as they go along, becoming progressively more obtuse and obdurate. They are spurred on by some bizarre exceptionalism and a nasty, nationalistic media.

Still engaging in questioning the Referendum Result I see. You might agree or disagree with the result, but the Referendum is done, over, finito.

Its the ultimate waste of time discussing the Referendum result, time I don't intend to waste. The debate has moved on. We are now at the stage of looking at a No Deal Brexit and how it can be avoided.

Crying over the spilled milk that was the election result gets no-one nowhere fast.

Any chance of it being re-run is long gone.

Any chance of its impact being reduced was rejected in the HoC including by the likes of Corbyn who by their actions handed Brexit on a plate to Boris Johnson.

Don’t look at this questionable, non-binding referendum, look at that other thing over there.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Corbyn couldn't be dumb enough to go along with a snap election?

Labour are miles behind in the polls. And an election would likely guarantee a No Deal Brexit as the clock is wound down.

He's been calling for an election since the last one. Every time he's been asked (when it was still a thing) for a second referendum, he's responded with 'election first'. Very hard to then say he doesn't want one. In word or deed. In any case, he could cobble together an alliance even if he doesn't (and most likely won't) get a majority.

Tikki Wang Wang

I think it’s game over. There will be an election (Corbyn won’t be able to help himself) and there will be a Tory landslide.

farmchoice

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Even if he won a majority there is no guarantee the ERG will play ball after the election. They could still oppose any deal, including one with border down the Irish Sea. Some Conservatives might do this too. Its very difficult to get a deal that suits even the whole of the Conservative party.

true but the same stands if he goes for no deal then an election. he then has to negotiate a deal which no matter what he manages to get will not suit the ERG (as it will contain the divorce bill and the backstop citizens rights etc)

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Even if he won a majority there is no guarantee the ERG will play ball after the election. They could still oppose any deal, including one with border down the Irish Sea. Some Conservatives might do this too. Its very difficult to get a deal that suits even the whole of the Conservative party.

That's why the election has to be before b-day. As long as the threat of no deal is there, all other outcomes look better. Push their noses up against the window of whatever hellscape he can leak into the press and tell them it's his deal or oblivion in a post-brexit Corbyn government. All the bogeymen in one neat little parcel. And it works equally well for ERG head-bangers and remainers alike.

farmchoice

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

I think it’s game over. There will be an election (Corbyn won’t be able to help himself) and there will be a Tory landslide.

i think at the back of his mind at all times is the last election. all the polls projected a may landslide for may. instead she lost her majority and labour came within a hairs breath of winning.

ToBeFrank123

Borderhopper wrote: »

Don’t look at this questionable, non-binding referendum, look at that other thing over there.

FFS.

We've been over this numerous times.

All parties but the Lib Dems accepted the Referendum Result. Jeremy Corbyn, lately hero of remainers, said the result needed to be respected.

Rerunning the referendum discussion, especially after UK party leaders accepted the result, is a complete waste of time.

I prefer to stick to what is actually happening at present.

ToBeFrank123

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's been calling for an election since the last one. Every time he's been asked (when it was still a thing) for a second referendum, he's responded with 'election first'. Very hard to then say he doesn't want one. In word or deed. In any case, he could cobble together an alliance even if he doesn't (and most likely won't) get a majority.

Most likely they will lose 50 seats and the Tories gain them. That will weaken him further. There might be a heave against them at that stage.

farmchoice

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Most likely they will lose 50 seats and the Tories gain them. That will weaken him further. There might be a heave against them at that stage.

if you are right then johnson would be mad not to push for an election in fact its bizarre he has not done it before now.

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Most likely they will lose 50 seats and the Tories gain them. That will weaken him further. There might be a heave against them at that stage.

I definitely wouldn't bet on the result. That's for sure. The FPTP system can throw up some unlikely results at times. There are a few sure things though. For example, the SNP will probably sweep Scotland. Plaid Cymru might also have a bit of a boost as well. What really intrigues me is how the LibDems/Greens etc. work together to try and maximise numbers. Labour could definitely be in trouble though. I can't really see them overcoming their current polling deficit by much.

For Forks Sake

prawnsambo wrote: »

Alliance are gobbling up support from everywhere it looks like. SDLP, SF, DUP and a little bit of UUP. Will be an interesting election in NI if it happens soon.

Unfortunately as always, FPTP would show its worthlessness, Alliance would need a far greater surge to actually gain any sizable number of seats.