Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

is_that_so wrote: »

This is the risk he faces. It could be good or a disaster.

How are those 7 MPs caught in camera publicly saying proroguging parliament is insane etc, going o hold their seats? Surely everyone knows they lied now. In constituencies like those they could be anyone’s to win

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

This is the risk he faces. It could be good or a disaster.

Unclear if this poll accounts for the possibilty of a Remain pact.

BarryD2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Still engaging in questioning the Referendum Result I see. You might agree or disagree with the result, but the Referendum is done, over, finito.

Its the ultimate waste of time discussing the Referendum result, time I don't intend to waste. The debate has moved on. We are now at the stage of looking at a No Deal Brexit and how it can be avoided.

It is indeed finito, history. The question now is whether the public of the UK should have a confirmatory referendum, on the terms that their government wants to ask them to leave on. That is an entirely logical and reasonable course of action. They are different beasts.

Water John

Someone presumes there that the DUP will stay at 10 seats.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Unclear if this poll accounts for the possibilty of a Remain pact.

It's more the level of the risk he could be taking, I'm thinking of. I think almost everyone else will band together in a new parliament, except the DUP of course.

Zubeneschamali

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The SNP have called the referendum and the result illegitimate from day one (35 votes in the HoC)

Here is Sturgeon's first statement on the result.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-36620375

She does not claim the referendum or result are illegitimate, she just says that since Scotland voted to remain, she will work to see that Scotland remains.

Even if that means leaving the UK (her real goal).

Stop moaning ffs

Water John wrote: »

Someone presumes there that the DUP will stay at 10 seats.

Poll earlier suggested alliance were going to take 3 DUP seats. They will turn up at parliament and will vote whatever way defends NI and the backstop.

is_that_so

Water John wrote: »

Someone presumes there that the DUP will stay at 10 seats.

Actually that's pointed out in a further tweet.

VinLieger

BarryD2 wrote: »

It is indeed finito, history. The question now is whether the public of the UK should have a confirmatory referendum, on the terms that their government wants to ask them to leave on. That is an entirely logical and reasonable course of action. They are different beasts.

A 2nd confirmatory referendum of such a kind was suggested by Mogg, Farage and numerous other leavers prior to the referendum, none of them will agree its necessary or acknowledge suggesting it anymore

swampgas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How are those 7 MPs caught in camera publicly saying proroguging parliament is insane etc, going o hold their seats? Surely everyone knows they lied now. In constituencies like those they could be anyone’s to win

In a single seat contituency you're really voting for the party rather than the candidate. So they'll probably just go all out on the fear-mongering - Jeremy "Stalin" Corbyn will take all their stuff if they don't vote Tory.

Itssoeasy

As if this whole brexit carry on wasn't already a farce, it seems that the draft policy on Northern Ireland that the British cabinet are nearing approval of is the same one as before but with the backstop references crossed out. Yes minister wasn't even this bad.

Water John

Well they used that slur the last time and look where it got May.

seamus

farmchoice wrote: »

corbyn is mad for an election, but he would be mad to fall into this trap alright, but then a lot of people not least in his own party say he's a bit mad.

May called an election because she thought she'd walk it. All the polls at the time said she would too.

Then Labour came out and (figuratively) trounced them. So Corbyn might be confident he can do the same again and gather another 10 or 20 seats.

swampgas

Water John wrote: »

Well they used that slur the last time and look where it got May.

That's a fair point, although:

• This time round Jeremy Corbyn may have been damaged by endless prevarication. Many remainers might vote elsewhere.
• Last time, Theresa May was a truly dreadful campaigner. Johnson has far more charisma.

It will be interesting to see what happens next.

trellheim

Right cabinet and drinks about to start in No.10 , phones being taken off attending MPs

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

It's more the level of the risk he could be taking, I'm thinking of. I think almost everyone else will band together in a new parliament, except the DUP of course.

The question is not if they team up in Parliament after the election, the question is whether they agree not to run against one another ahead of the election.

If there is one Tory vs. one Remain candidate in every constituency, FPTP would give Remain a much better chance than if Remain votes are split between 4 opposition parties.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The question is not if they team up in Parliament after the election, the question is whether they agree not to run against one another ahead of the election.

If there is one Tory vs. one Remain candidate in every constituency, FPTP would give Remain a much better chance than if Remain votes are split between 4 opposition parties.

I don't think you'll get polls with that level of granularity at this point. It seems to be a straightforward voting intentions poll. And I agree with you. It is something those who want to oust Boris need to think about.

is_that_so

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1168546340428812288

sabat

It's not unthinkable that Johnson himself could get booted out in a GE. I was just looking at the figures from 2017 there and he has a majority of only 5,000. If the Brexit Party run a candidate cannibalising the CP vote and there's a higher turnout voting Labour to take a shot at him personally and the Tories in general we could well be watching one of those famous late night declarations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think you'll get polls with that level of granularity at this point. It seems to be a straightforward voting intentions poll. And I agree with you. It is something those who want to oust Boris need to think about.

Seems to bear out the idea that no-one will vote for Farage in a real election.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Seems to bear out the idea that no-one will vote for Farage in a real election.

Well he has a poor track record on that really. Remember he was very much in favour of proportional representation as it would have given them seats.

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Firstly I don't think you understand what a Hard Brexit is and how it applies to Ireland.

Secondly I don't think you have accepted the UK voted to leave the EU, fully and entirely.

.

I don't give a s**t about what the UK wants- they have existing obligations under the GFA and as a consequence of their carving up of Ireland. Strictly speaking it is questionable whether any form of brexit is possible given the UK's GFA obligations (unless and until NI is handed over)- and even if possible, said brexit may need to be a soft SM/CU brexit only.

Water John

I presume, no french wine available. Only british beers and lagers, courtesy of Tim Martin. Scotch whisky won't even make the grade.

Flex

Itssoeasy wrote: »

As if this whole brexit carry on wasn't already a farce, it seems that the draft policy on Northern Ireland that the British cabinet are nearing approval of is the same one as before but with the backstop references crossed out. Yes minister wasn't even this bad.

I presume that passing this (if it passes) is their way of showing the EU they can have a deal if only they would just throw Ireland under the bus (already done previously with the Brady amendment)

trellheim

No. It is to be technically correct when mentioning that they have a text ready to go, its to convince waverers and not tell a lie.

( that said, there MAY be a real text and the leakers have it wrong - but on balance thats almost never the case )

fash

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Staying in a Customs Union including more than likely free movement of people was always going to be a tough sell by any PM who would struggle to get it through the HoC.

Abiding by rules you have no say or input into was going to be difficult to accept. Its not really leaving the EU. Its like staying in the EU but not having any power in the EU, a worse fate than actually staying in the EU for those who wanted to take back power. It would render the HoC a rubber stamping parliament for EU rules and I can't see the majority accepting that in the HoC. Like I said a tough sell.

You understand that FOM has nothing to do with a CU? Turkey is in a CU but has no FOM. Do we really need to go through the basics in this?

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Seems to bear out the idea that no-one will vote for Farage in a real election.

And at the same time (almost) justifies Johnson's brexity stance. I know wishful-thinking hard brexiters (is there any other kind?) would like to see a Johnson/Farage alliance leading them to the sunlit uplands, but when it comes to marking an X on the ballot paper, the old habits will come to the fore.

The problem (from Johnson's pov) is that the SNP will take Scotland, probably in its entirety. So that's a lot of seats lost and then he's scratching around looking to win some Labour marginals, which of course puts paid to any putative election alliance with BP Ltd. And the danger for Labour is that with the Tories nibbling at his arse in leave constituencies and the LibDems et al nibbling at the other cheek in remain ones, he's going to get squeezed. This is the problem with sitting on the fence, you don't hold any ground.

Flex

trellheim wrote: »

No. It is to be technically correct when mentioning that they have a text ready to go, its to convince waverers and not tell a lie.

( that said, there MAY be a real text and the leakers have it wrong - but on balance thats almost never the case )

You mean preparing this to maintain pretense of aiming for a deal albeit being prepared for/willing to go through with no deal to keep moderate Conservative MPs onboard?

ToBeFrank123

fash wrote: »

You understand that FOM has nothing to do with a CU? Turkey is in a CU but has no FOM. Do we really need to go through the basics in this?

I said I think it would mean FOM. I didn't say I knew for sure.

It would definitely mean accepting EU rules and regulations in a whole host of matters with ZERO input into those rules and regulations.

In any point, its moot. A majority in the HoC voted against a customs union.

Next...

GM228

Hilary Benn's new Bill:-

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168560598650621953?s=19