Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If Boris refuses to follow the law and request an extension, the logical next step is a vote of no confidence, Boris consigned to the dustbin of history as the PM with the shortest term ever, someone (Corbyn or...) installed as caretaker PM with a limited mandate to request an extension and call a General Election.

With this historic humiliation fresh, the Tories must dive into the election. Do they replace Boris, history's worst PM ever? Do they deselect all those rebels and face them running as Remain Independents (could throw seats to Remain even if they don't win)? Do they team up with Farage?

Anyhow, Remain Alliance wins GE, holds new referendum, Remain wins, Brexit consigned to the nuclear waste pond in Sellafield.

All the people who refused to prepare for Brexit say "I told you so!".

You used the word "logical" in a post about Brexit!
In a likely election they will all need a different type of strategy. Wouldn't call this at all as it could come down to divisions in individual constituencies.

Rjd2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Looks like there's going to be an election.

Methinks he doth protest too much.

He knows there is going to be an election and its why he is planning for one. He wants the narrative to be that he was forced into one to get Brexit through.

With May many things hurt her, but it also for many felt like a vanity project and not needed. Boris wants the public to believe this is a last resort.

Will it work? Who knows.

cj maxx

I think that was supposed to be a barnstorming, rabble rousing speech ala churchill.
Failed miserably on the front imo though I don't know how this will work out for him

listermint

dublinman1990 wrote: »

I heard him say these few words outside No.10 Downing St.

"I don't want an election. You don't want an election."

It looks like, in BJ's world, that Brexit will still happen on the 31st of October.

And some enhanced spending plan to be unveiled by Savid Javid to MP's in the HoC tomorrow.

I hope the MP's get their heads around this huge constitutional crisis in parliament tomorrow.

Ireland is definitely looking more scared of a No Deal Brexit by the hour.

Just for clarity sake 'Dublinman' Ireland isn't scared of no deal. We've spent three years in prep for this exact scenario we are fully aware of the stupidity of an English parliament.


So ,


No.

prawnsambo

Rjd2 wrote: »

He knows there is going to be an election and its why he is planning for one. He wants the narrative to be that he was forced into one to get Brexit through.

With May many things hurt her, but it also for many felt like a vanity project and not needed. Boris wants the public to believe this is a last resort.

Will it work? Who knows.

Yep. I figured this would be the case weeks ago. I even proposed the date: October 17th (dependant on them sticking with the tradition of holding elections on a Thursday). It's like watching a movie where you've already read the book. You know how it ends, but you're watching to see if it remains faithful to the book.

PropJoe10

The problem for Boris is that he has absolutely no idea what he's going to do, other than plead with MPs to back him and threaten them if they don't. He's got no answers on the backstop, and no answers whatsoever to anything.

More bluster and empty words. He's gotten to where he is by spoofing but I can't see it getting him much further.

Stop moaning ffs

PropJoe10 wrote: »

The problem for Boris is that he has absolutely no idea what he's going to do, other than plead with MPs to back him and threaten them if they don't. He's got no answers on the backstop, and no answers whatsoever to anything.

More bluster and empty words. He's gotten to where he is by spoofing but I can't see it getting him much further.

Bullish!t will get you to the top. It won’t keep you there.

And he’s a lifelong bullish!tter come to the end of the road.

robinph

If the opposition is tricked into running a vote of no confidence then they really need to be sure they can get a caretaker government organised to take over and bring in some alternative solution to the brexit disaster. If they don't then it will mean an election and the tory brexit party version will happen instead.

20silkcut

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Bullish!t will get you to the top. It won’t keep you there.

And he’s a lifelong bullish!tter come to the end of the road.

That crowd jeering him as he spoke.
Why did he make the speech outside?
Very pathetic looking. Got it very wrong there. Trump wouldn’t make that mistake.

The Late Late Show

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Sure feels and looks like it is headed that very direction.

“That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary. There wasn't even any rioting in the streets. People stayed home at night, watching television. There wasn't even an enemy you could put your finger on.”
― Margaret Atwood

Sadly, variations of the Republic of Gilead are becoming real and it all stems from Saudi Arabia's oil money you can be sure. They are behind John Bolton's April 2018 regime in America, Brexit, this anti-renewable energy and anti Iran drivel, etc. The likes of Trump gets bailed out in return for allowing 'Gilead' to become government of America and thus the world.

briany

20silkcut wrote: »

That crowd jeering him as he spoke.
Why did he make the speech outside?
Very pathetic looking. Got it very wrong there. Trump wouldn’t make that mistake.

Trump would have said that the crowd was paid by CNN to be there, or something similarly conspiratorial.

Stop moaning ffs

They are definitely in election mode. Focus groups running on full steam on various issues

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1168587490934054914?s=21

SeaBreezes

Feeling incredibly sorry for the average uk citizen. Not a single politician has their interests at heart. In fact any that do will be out of a job. It's all about the MPs themselves and their own agendas. I don't buy that it takes 6 months to hold a referendum. Not good enough in this day and age. Honestly, it looks like the EU dragged them along and contributed to their success. Left to their own devices.. don't hold out much hope for the uk.

VinLieger

What was everyones opinion on Corbyns landlord and shares recovery stuff?

Bit too far left for my liking tbh

Stop moaning ffs

All journalists being briefed there’ll be an election called if MPs take control. So why not just announce that tonight instead of that utterly pointless speech?

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168587724502327296?s=21

Water John

The big risk is Johnson moving the election date after he gets the GE motion through. He can then shift GE date to Nov 2nd.

there is no chance of a Lb majority, it will be a coalition, so Corbyn's left instincts will be moderated.

prawnsambo

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Feeling incredibly sorry for the average uk citizen. Not a single politician has their interests at heart. In fact any that do will be out of a job. It's all about the MPs themselves and their own agendas. I don't buy that it takes 6 months to hold a referendum. Not good enough in this day and age. Honestly, it looks like the EU dragged them along and contributed to their success. Left to their own devices.. don't hold out much hope for the uk.

You seem very hung up on this. It's been explained to you a number of times. It takes at least as long here. Referendums are not a bit like elections. They don't happen often and they require special legislation. Just look how long it takes a bill to go through both houses and committee stages. Six months is quite quick tbh.

An Ciarraioch

Whatever about the rest of the British media, Peter Foster has certainly seen his reputation enhanced, and this article for Prospect shows how negotiations have reached their current impasse:

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/peter-foster-brexit-longread

PeadarCo

VinLieger wrote:

Bit too far left for my liking tbh

Is that not the biggest issue. Corbyn would if he was in Ireland be leading PBP or another communist group.


However in the UK he leads the main opposition party. That people would vote for a hard no deal brexit ie Johnson before Corbyn is a massive indictment against him and the Labour Party in general. Nevermind that while the Tories have torn themselves apart he has sat on the bench even when dealing with a lame duck PM as May was for a long time. The issue for remainers is that their vote will be split between a few parties, while leave there is only really 2 Tories or BP. Which is better under first past the post.

ThePanjandrum

listermint wrote: »

Nothing in that. Whole thing directed towards Tory MP defectors. Simple as that.

He was told to go out and show his face because they've been torn apart over the weekend.

I think that it was a message to the many Labour MPs representing Leave constituencies to let them know that if they support the Bill they might be explaining their actions to sceptical constituents. Boris would also like the first vote to see which Tories vote against him so that they can be deselected before the election.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1168524451861979137

Calltocall

I agree with Johnson that another extension past 31st October is absolutely pointless, no more, deal or no deal this needs to end on 31st October.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think that it was a message to the many Labour MPs representing Leave constituencies to let them know that if they support the Bill they might be explaining their actions to sceptical constituents. Boris would also like the first vote to see which Tories vote against him so that they can be deselected before the election.

The risk of deselection is that the incumbent could stand as an independent. Of course they are not guaranteed to be successful, but they could still possibly garner considerable personal support. Depending of course on who they are. The likes of Rory Stewart, David Gauke, Philip Hammond etc. spring to mind.

Water John

They could call themselves, 'true conservatives'.

Enzokk

kuro68k wrote: »

So frustrating that Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and all the other remain leaning parties can't get their act together. If there is a GE then they need to beat Boris who will be standing on a platform of delivering brexit no matter what, nullifying the BP vote.

They need unity to win.

What about the recent by-election in Brecon and Radnoshire? The Lib Dems overturned a 8000 vote majority and they worked together with other parties to achieve this. I believe that the Better For Britain campaign has been working hard to ensure the parties that support no-deal and remain actually work together and don't crumble and take away from their own votes likes they did in the EU elections.

Heidi Allen has also been active to ensure no-deal will not become a reality and while she was a Tory, she speaks a lot of sense. I think there will be a campaign to at least ensure Johnson doesn't get a majority for no-deal.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Benn's bill above requests an extension to January 31st. I think the EU will offer only a longer extension, time for something to actually happen in Westminster, like 12 more months.

I saw a lot of chatter that this was the most they could possibly ask for and get support from those Labour MPs in leave areas and Tory rebels.


As for the election, Corbyn still has time to turn this around for Labour. It really doesn't matter how bad we think he has been, the determining factor for Labour will be what is in the manifesto and what is says on Brexit. We know he is a very capable campaigner so if the party is able to scratch together a decent Brexit plan, I am sure their plans on the other important issue will easily beat whatever plans Johnson will come up with.

is_that_so

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

All journalists being briefed there’ll be an election called if MPs take control. So why not just announce that tonight instead of that utterly pointless speech?

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1168587724502327296?s=21

Speech was for rebels with a bit of party political. He can claim he was left with no other option by them not being loyal to the party. It also gives them an out to back off. Personally don't think they'll take it.

steddyeddy

I don't know how many of you guys seen this but I think it's the closest someone has come to dismantling the lies, propaganda and fairy tails propogated by Jacob Rees Mogg in this campaign. Dr. David Nicholl, the clinician involved in writing the government's own Brexit mitigation plan has rung in to LBC to ask Jacob “What level of mortality rate are you willing to accept in the light of a no-deal Brexit?”

Visibly angry, Mogg replies with something a child would spout:

“I think it’s deeply irresponsible Dr Nicholl of you to call in and try to spread fear across the country. It’s typical of Remainer campaigners to try and you should be quite ashamed, I’m afraid.”

Interestingly the doctor also accused Gove of lying about the Yellowhammer papers saying that they weren't worst case scenarios at all.

18 minutes in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a_ecUCq610

boggerman1

Just watching another pointless debate on channel 4.the level of anger and delusion among leavers is beyond comprehension.to hell with them.just go and go tomorrow

ToBeFrank123

fash wrote: »

Tory hating arch brexiter Corbyn? I'm shocked, shocked that he would support brexit

Would that be the arch brexiteer who now wants a second referendum?

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Would that be the arch brexiteer who now wants a second referendum?

Are we sure of that? I've kind of lost count of the times it's been said that Labour are in favour of a second referendum, only for the small print to say that only if it's a particular type of referendum and the sky is a particular shade of blue and the Tories are doing one too, but different. Or something.