Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

AbusesToilets

prawnsambo wrote: »

He has voted against every EU treaty that went through parliament afaik. The method in his madness is that the Tories bring about brexit and take the blame for all the chaos and he rides in on his white charger and builds his worker's utopia on the ashes. And nationalisation is top of his agenda, which of course the pesky EU may have issues with. Among other things obviously. His is just another pick 'n mix EU membership unicorn farm.

I understand he's a fool, but why the rest of the party content to let him "lead" them off a cliff baffles me. Does he have a such a stranglehold on the reins of power in Labour?

trellheim

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I understand he's a fool, but why the rest of the party content to let him "lead" them off a cliff baffles me. Does he have a such a stranglehold on the reins of power in Labour?

Yep from the membership not the PLP plus it is not as simple as it looks . Google Seumus Milne and Karie Murphy

(actually heres an FT article) https://www.ft.com/content/166d32d8-a26b-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1

Water John

You now also have the likely scenario that, no party leader will be able to command a majority in a new HOC. That, if it happens just after 31st will be a major crisis.
The country in trouble with Brexit kicking into reality and no Govn't to deal with it.

We'll see how Johnson receives the news that the EU won't budge. But that's all a blame game as he knows the answer already.

seraphimvc

Brexit: Freedom of movement 'will end' says the government

No 10 has said rules allowing EU nationals to live and work freely in the UK will end in the event of a no-deal Brexit at the end of October.
...

EU nationals who are already in the UK would be unaffected and can apply for settled status or pre-settled status in the same way as now.

Well...is this a bluff or?

This is clearly not well thought out if they are actually going to do it so soon - they wont have the resources to effectively deal with the 'visa/settled status applications' by so many EU nationals in UK ffs. This is hilarious either way if Boris is seeking any kind of reaction from EU like this.

prawnsambo

seraphimvc wrote: »

Brexit: Freedom of movement 'will end' says the government

Well...is this a bluff or?

This is clearly not well thought out if they are actually going to do it so soon - they wont have the resources to effectively deal with the 'visa/settled status applications' by so many EU nationals in UK ffs. This is hilarious either way if Boris is seeking any kind of reaction from EU like this.

It's the logical extension of brexit. It's stating the obvious. Again. Yes, it will end, because all the treaties will end.

Leroy42

I thought they had already guaranteed the rights of all EU citizens to remain in the UK? Johnson had said it I thought?

It is odd that a many in the country complain that immigrants don't integrate, but the answer to that seem to be to only let immigrants stay for the shortest possible time and not their families etc.

peter kern

But, sadly for the UK, on balance this won't pan out well for them. Looking at the EU's goods exports:

- 93% will be unaffected by Brexit (because they don't go to the UK)
- 6% go to UK but (unless UK changes its tariff rules) won't attract tariffs because they are in tariff-free categories
- 0.85% will attract low- or medium-rate tariffs in the UK
- 0.35% will attract high tariffs (more than 10%) in the UK

But looking at the UK's goods exports:

- 48% will be unaffected by Brexit (because they don't go to the EU)
- 25% go to EU but won't attract tariffs because they are in tariff-free categories
- 24%% will attract low- or medium-rate tariffs in the EU
- 3% will attract high tariffs (more than 10%) in the EU

So it seems the "lots of goods attract zero or low tariffs" point, while valid, is going to deliver a lot more benefit to the EU than it is to the UK.[/QUOTE]

could you share the source for the numbers you posted ?
cheers

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

I thought they had already guaranteed the rights of all EU citizens to remain in the UK? Johnson had said it I thought?

It is odd that a many in the country complain that immigrants don't integrate, but the answer to that seem to be to only let immigrants stay for the shortest possible time and not their families etc.

That hasn't changed. This announcement is in the "Well, d'uh, yes" category. So no new FoM intake obviously, but (red tape and hurdles excepted), those who are already there are entitled (ish) to remain.

Valhallapt

Tommie Gorman on the end to FoM

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1163433557777375233

Priti Patel’s ambitions do look to run counter to maintaining the CTA, most likely not a deliberate ending of the CTA, but unicorn incompatibility

prawnsambo

Valhallapt wrote: »

Tommie Gorman on the end to FoM

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1163433557777375233

Priti Patel’s ambitions do look to run counter to maintaining the CTA, most likely not a deliberate ending of the CTA, but unicorn incompatibility

It's the Polish taxi driver conundrum. Who stops him or her picking up fares in Newry and driving them to Dundalk and vice versa? And multiply that by any and all service providers traversing the border daily.

seraphimvc

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's the logical extension of brexit. It's stating the obvious. Again. Yes, it will end, because all the treaties will end.

I mean sure that's what they said, but why would they do it so soon - they should focus on tackling the actual 'crisis' they are facing now no?

From Guardian also:
menahttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/19/threat-to-end-freedom-of-movement-overnight-reckless-say-eu-citizens

A Home Office spokesperson told the Independent: “The home secretary has been clear in her intention to take back control of our borders and end free movement after 31 October.

“Ending free movement means we are no longer required to give unlimited and uncontrolled access to those from EU countries when they are coming here seeking to work.”

The Home Office minister Brandon Lewis said last week that more than 1 million people had been granted settled or pre-settled status through the scheme, after 1,038,100 people applied by 31 July. It was unclear how many other EU nationals have since had their applications received.

The deadline for applying to the EU settlement scheme if the UK leaves the bloc without a deal is 31 December 2020.

Dymo

I don't think Priti Patel has a clue what shes at and cares less about the people in Northern Ireland, the border in the sea is getting closer and closer as being the only viable option for the UK and then it will probably be cheered as a win for the UK.

They will just have to come up with a plan for the DUP.

Stop moaning ffs

seraphimvc wrote: »

I mean sure that's what they said, but why would they do it so soon - they should focus on tackling the actual 'crisis' they are facing now no?

From Guardian also:
menahttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/19/threat-to-end-freedom-of-movement-overnight-reckless-say-eu-citizens

Except for that one actual landborder they have. They won’t be taking control of that.

I wish just one uk journalist would push on this point and force them to answer it.

prawnsambo

seraphimvc wrote: »

I mean sure that's what they said, but why would they do it so soon - they should focus on tackling the actual 'crisis' they are facing now no?

From Guardian also:
menahttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/19/threat-to-end-freedom-of-movement-overnight-reckless-say-eu-citizens

It's one of the 'highlights' of brexit. "Taking back control... etc.". We're getting all the greatest hits now because Johnson is on an election footing and is busy stealing the brexit party's clothes. FoM ends on b-day 3 unless there's an agreement, that's a fact. It makes for great press for the brexit constituency to hear the beloved leader stating the bleeding obvious. It's what they voted for.

McGiver

New leftist initiative in the UK called LEFT - LEave, Fight, Transform.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/f/leave-fight-transform-founding-statement

We must build a transformative movement that begins with the popular rejection of the EU within many working-class communities and that advances genuine internationalism with allies in the labour movement across the world.

Are they for real? Are they high?

ballsymchugh

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Not actually true, but it was quite close. They won Islington but not the constituency of Islington North.

Regardless there is a 40 year history of Euro election results not really translating to GE voting in the UK.

explains Emily Thornberry's change to full referendum then. Corbyn should be worried though, the Remain alliance wasn't ratified in time for the Euro elections and they will be for any general election. He will be up against one candidate from Green/Lib dems/Change and could be in for a surprise.

Water John

It would be real karma if both Johnson and Corbyn lost their seats in a GE.

ArmaniJeanss

ballsymchugh wrote: »

Corbyn should be worried though, the Remain alliance wasn't ratified in time for the Euro elections and they will be for any general election. He will be up against one candidate from Green/Lib dems/Change and could be in for a surprise.

Nah, can't happen.
ChangeUK are irrelevant outside their current constituencies and will have no influence on Islington North - their MPs will all be in huge time-consuming battles to keep their own seats.
Libs and Greens may agree on one candidate alright, but actively trying to take Islington North would be a stupid waste of resources, especially for parties where such resources (money, canvassers, known electable candidates) are very limited.
Focussed and concentrated targeting of ~60 winnable seats makes more sense to me. Corbyns seat should be way down any logical target list.

Stop moaning ffs

Water John wrote: »

It would be real karma if both Johnson and Corbyn lost their seats in a GE.

That’s entirely possible right?
Johnson only had a few thousand votes in his favour last time, was it 3000?

Professor Moriarty

peter kern wrote: »

But, sadly for the UK, on balance this won't pan out well for them. Looking at the EU's goods exports:

- 93% will be unaffected by Brexit (because they don't go to the UK)
- 6% go to UK but (unless UK changes its tariff rules) won't attract tariffs because they are in tariff-free categories
- 0.85% will attract low- or medium-rate tariffs in the UK
- 0.35% will attract high tariffs (more than 10%) in the UK

But looking at the UK's goods exports:

- 48% will be unaffected by Brexit (because they don't go to the EU)
- 25% go to EU but won't attract tariffs because they are in tariff-free categories
- 24%% will attract low- or medium-rate tariffs in the EU
- 3% will attract high tariffs (more than 10%) in the EU

So it seems the "lots of goods attract zero or low tariffs" point, while valid, is going to deliver a lot more benefit to the EU than it is to the UK.

could you share the source for the numbers you posted ?
cheers[/QUOTE]

Tariffs won't be the UK's biggest problem, it will be regulations.

CrabRevolution

McGiver wrote: »

New leftist initiative in the UK called LEFT - LEave, Fight, Transform.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/f/leave-fight-transform-founding-statement

Are they for real? Are they high?

The absence of self awareness is staggering

wrote:

......the false prophets of the right will step in with their empty promises and reactionary utopias.

ballsymchugh

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Nah, can't happen.
ChangeUK are irrelevant outside their current constituencies and will have no influence on Islington North - their MPs will all be in huge time-consuming battles to keep their own seats.
Libs and Greens may agree on one candidate alright, but actively trying to take Islington North would be a stupid waste of resources, especially for parties where such resources (money, canvassers, known electable candidates) are very limited.
Focussed and concentrated targeting of ~60 winnable seats makes more sense to me. Corbyns seat should be way down any logical target list.

according to Heidi Allen, any seat that doesn't have a committed remain MP will be targetted by the remain alliance. Mentioned Change as they're still going to be part of the alliance, and they are unlikely to have Lib Dems etc against them in their own constituencies, but i'd still expect a big swing away from Labour in Corbyn's seat if he doesn't get off the fence.

you could have said the same about labour in the last election in Canterbury or Kensington.

trellheim

McGiver wrote: »

New leftist initiative in the UK called LEFT - LEave, Fight, Transform.
https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/f/leave-fight-transform-founding-statement


Are they for real? Are they high?

That's the Morning Star, Corbyn's favourite newspaper ( voice of the hard left ) .... the real point to draw here is that it will be very hard for Corbyn's base -for that's what this is - to stand against Brexit

Whoever is doing this is doing everything possible to stop interference with Out-by-31st-October. It will be read at the highest levels of Labour, and feeds into why Labour's less-than-wonderful opposition to Brexit.

prawnsambo

I wonder will Johnson have the nerve to come out with this guff when he meets Macron and Merkel:

They have seen that the UK parliament has three times rejected the withdrawal agreement, the backstop just doesn’t work, it’s not democratic and I hope that they will see fit to compromise, but in the meantime we get ready to come out on 31 October.

I suspect Macron will have just two words for him; the second being 'off'. Merkel may be a bit more restrained, but the undemocratic backstop stuff would be enough to try a saint.

Somehow I don't think he will have the nerve. I'd love to be a fly on the wall though.

McGiver

CrabRevolution wrote: »

The absence of self awareness is staggering

......the false prophets of the right will step in with their empty promises and reactionary utopias.

The absence of self awareness is staggering

Oh my, I didn't notice that. Reactionary. This is a real commie stuff...

ancapailldorcha

trellheim wrote: »

That's the Morning Star, Corbyn's favourite newspaper ( voice of the hard left ) .... the real point to draw here is that it will be very hard for Corbyn's base -for that's what this is - to stand against Brexit

Whoever is doing this is doing everything possible to stop interference with Out-by-31st-October. It will be read at the highest levels of Labour, and feeds into why Labour's less-than-wonderful opposition to Brexit.

Well, Momentum had a Brexit consultation and found:

92% of members want all Labour MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal
89% believe a no-deal Brexit should be rejected as a viable option
82% believe Brexit is likely to make things worse for their friends, family and community.
While 41% of members support a public vote in all circumstances a total of 57% either prioritise a General Election over a public vote or do not want any public vote
97% of respondents signed a petition calling on Theresa May to immediately end the uncertainty around the rights and status of EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU.

https://peoplesmomentum.com/2018/11/06/brexit-consultation/

The Labour party is now in a politically perverse place where it is derided by remainers and rightly so for enabling Brexit while Leavers are convinced that it is a remain party and it's all down to Corbyn's policy of constructive ambiguity.

McGiver

prawnsambo wrote: »

I wonder will Johnson have the nerve to come out with this guff when he meets Macron and Merkel:

I suspect Macron will have just two words for him; the second being 'off'. Merkel may be a bit more restrained, but the undemocratic backstop stuff would be enough to try a saint.

Somehow I don't think he will have the nerve. I'd love to be a fly on the wall though.

I think they will all democratically (i.e. in consensus ) tell him to bugger off at the G7 and the EU summit.

Joe_ Public

I have read about the remain alliance targetting Corbyns seat. What a waste of energy and resources. Corbyn had over 70% of the vote in 2017 and has previously got by on 40%. I would imagine it's more to do with getting as much an anti-Corbyn message out there as possible as with any serious electoral strategy in mind.

Johnson is a more interesting scenario i think. Had his majority halved in 2017 and interestingly, Labour are fielding a young Muslim immigrant against him who will be targeting a somewhat dormant big student population in the constituency to help close the gap. The heathrow issue could be another complication. Voting pacts are the other potential dealbreaker, but hard to know how they might work. Uxbridge & Sth Ruislip was a 57% leave constituency in 2016 referendum, but many polls suggest the pendulum has swung slightly back to remain in the meantime.

Professor Moriarty

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I have read about the remain alliance targetting Corbyns seat. What a waste of energy and resources. Corbyn had over 70% of the vote in 2017 and has previously got by on 40%. I would imagine it's more to do with getting as much an anti-Corbyn message out there as possible as with any serious electoral strategy in mind.

Johnson is a more interesting scenario i think. Had his majority halved in 2017 and interestingly, Labour are fielding a young Muslim immigrant against him who will be targeting a somewhat dormant big student population in the constituency to help close the gap. The heathrow issue could be another complication. Voting pacts are the other potential dealbreaker, but hard to know how they might work. Uxbridge & Sth Ruislip was a 57% leave constituency in 2016 referendum, but many polls suggest the pendulum has swung slightly back to remain in the meantime.

There will be zero swing from the Tories so.

prawnsambo

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I have read about the remain alliance targetting Corbyns seat. What a waste of energy and resources. Corbyn had over 70% of the vote in 2017 and has previously got by on 40%. I would imagine it's more to do with getting as much an anti-Corbyn message out there as possible as with any serious electoral strategy in mind.

Read it here or is it something they've said? Because if the former, it's just somebody's wish list and has no basis in fact. If the latter, have you a source?

Edit: If you've read it here, would you mind quoting the post? It at least gives the person who posted it the chance to defend their position and stops the rest of us running around the internet looking for the story.