Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

careless sherpa

Naggdefy wrote: »

In a hierarchy of blame for the Brexit fiasco I think I'd apportion blame to 1. Cameron for such poor judgement. 2. Corbyn for such ineffectual opposition. May did as best she could and Johnson is just the fopish clown we all knew he was with delusions of being a renegade statesman like Churchill.

May went and did a solo run and decided to pull the UK out of the SM and CU without her senior officals being aware of the plan until she announced it at the party conference. She was a disaster

ltd440

1 Cameron
2 Cameron
3 Cameron
4 May
5 Corbyn
1,2 and 3 for being so arrogant to call a Ref that was so easily derailed.
4 for calling a GE when she didn't need to.
5 for being so unbelievable ineffective whenever an opportunity fell in his lap

Mr.Nice Guy

If there ends up being an election, what outcome do we want here? According to opinion polls, another hung parliament would be likely:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850

I think the DUP to win the fewest seats possible would be on most people's wishlist, though I sadly feel they will hold most if not all of them.

But what about as far as the main parties go? I don't like Johnson or his cabinet at all, yet is him winning an overall majority the best outcome from our point of view? On the basis that he might be able to ditch the Duppers?

The best outcome for Corbyn looks to be a hung parliament in which he can cobble together a coalition with the SNP and others, but would that be much help to us?

The choice seems to me to be between a narcissistic charlatan with little to no principles but who can possibly command a majority, versus a stubborn, unimaginative traditionalist who does possess some principles but who is unlikely to command a majority.

Which is the best - or maybe I should say least bad - option? What do you reckon?

Limpy

I have been very impressed by PM Johnson since he took the Tory leadership. Very decisive and I think he will win a snap election when it happens.

ballsymchugh

Any idea on a time table for votes later today?

briany

Err, in the event of a GE, why wouldn't Farage's Brexit Party charge into the fray? He will if he thinks that Brexit is at stake, and the seats they win would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Peregrinus

briany wrote: »

Err, in the event of a GE, why wouldn't Farage's Brexit Party charge into the fray? He will if he thinks that Brexit is at stake, and the seats they win would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

On current polling, they most likely won't win any seats at all; one or two, tops. But they could deny the Tories a lot of seats, splitting the No-deal Brexit vote and allowing Labour or the Lib Dems to take the seat.

In 2015 UKIP won 12.5% of the vote, which in a democracy would be expected to yield about 80 seats in a 650-seat assembly. In the UK, however, they took just one seat (a sitting Tory MP who had defected to UKIP, and held his seat as a UKIP candidate). But by taking votes from the Tories they cost the Tories up to 50 seats.

Right now the polls have Brexit Party in the 10%-15% range. If that's what they get in a GE, expect a similar outcome. And Johnson can't afford to lose 50 seats.

Peregrinus

Limpy wrote: »

I have been very impressed by PM Johnson since he took the Tory leadership. Very decisive and I think he will win a snap election when it happens.

I find your ideas intriguing. May I subscribe to your newsletter?

Limpy

Peregrinus wrote: »

I find your ideas intriguing. May I subscribe to your newsletter?

No

Peregrinus

Naggdefy wrote: »

I never remember as poor a party leader in a large county like the UK.

He's undoubtedly the worst Labour leader that I can recall.

But the worst party leader? He's up against some pretty stiff competition for that title these days. The Tories have just had their three worst party leaders of all time, one after another, in succession. You can argue about which of them was worse than the others but I think it's pretty unarguable that, between them, they're the bottom three.

A thought: This has happened after both parties have switched away from having the party leader chosen substantially by the parliamentary party, instead being chosen by the party rank-and-file.

Conclusion: This system produces really bad results. It should be rethought.

um7y1h83ge06nx

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

Zubeneschamali

devnull wrote: »

What illustrated this for me today was that there are a number of people who are now saying that they want to have an option of revoking article 50 put in any legislation as a back-up option should the other ones fail. This is making No Deal more likely.

Perhaps, but it is also making No Brexit more likely, and since the WA is the hardest Brexit imaginable and Soft Brexit is currently not on the table, No Brexit is the only sane option available.


While No Deal is very bad in the short term, the WA also puts the UK outside the Single Market trying to negotiate a Free Trade Deal, so over, say, 50 years, the two will be similarly bad for the UK.

Peregrinus

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I understand this.

The thing is, Brexit-with-a-deal is also very, very bad for Ireland, if the terms of the deal do not avoid a hard border. (And the UK does not currently seem minded to accept any deal which would avoid a hard border.) So, unless the UK changes its position, we're between a rock and a hard place; we have to choose the less awful of two pretty awful options.

I haven't seen any recent opinion polling on this. The general vibe suggests that support for the government's position is holding up well. (And certainly better than support for the UK government's position in the UK!) But it could be that there's a growing unease/discontent which has yet to manifest itself. How big that is, obviously, we can't know.

Zubeneschamali

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Boris will win a solid majority in election, 20-30MPs

He will airbrush a few minor adjustments to the withdrawal agreement, change the name of the backstop to something more palatable and claim a great victory for Britain

This would be grand for Ireland and the EU.


A catastrophe for the UK, perhaps its death knell, but hey, if they vote Tory after watching the last 3 years of gobsmacking incompetence piled on the previous 6 years of cruelty, I can't really say they don't deserve it.

Zubeneschamali

Naggdefy wrote: »

Is there anyway UK candidates can campaign as one of 3.

1. Brexit no Deal.
2. Brexit WA or some negotiation.
3. No Brexit...

1. Tory/Brexit Party
2. Labour
3. Lib Dems/Greens/SNP/Plaid Cymru

Stop moaning ffs

Brief flick through the main talking heads and politicos on twitter and it seems the mood has shifted into not allowing the circumstances for a GE to come about as they all think Johnson will put the election date after the 31st in order to allow the no deal happen first.

I understand them not trusting him but I can’t see him allowing no deal crash out to happen.

Borderhopper

Limpy wrote: »

I have been very impressed by PM Johnson since he took the Tory leadership. Very decisive and I think he will win a snap election when it happens.

Running in circles and shouting loudly does not constitute decisiveness.

Seriously, though, what actions have convinced you of his decisiveness?

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Brief flick through the main talking heads and politicos on twitter and it seems the mood has shifted into not allowing the circumstances for a GE to come about as they all think Johnson will put the election date after the 31st in order to allow the no deal happen first.

I understand them not trusting him but I can’t see him allowing no deal crash out to happen.

He's been purusing a strategy that is very likely likely to lead to a no-deal crash out.

That means that either (a) he is willing to accept a no-deal crash out, or (b) he is in delusional denial about the likely outcome of his strategy. But even if the truth is (b), the fact that he's in denial about the outcome of his strategy makes it unlikely that he will act in a way to avert that outcome.

So, yeah, either way Johnson, given his druthers, would probably lead the UK into a crash-out Brexit.

Jizique

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

If there ends up being an election, what outcome do we want here? According to opinion polls, another hung parliament would be likely:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850

I think the DUP to win the fewest seats possible would be on most people's wishlist, though I sadly feel they will hold most if not all of them.
What do you reckon?

They should lose South Belfast.
They previously lost East Belfast to Long and I would enjoy that.
But I would really really love Nigel Dodds in North Belfast to lose out - it has been getting tighter and SDLP/FF need to step aside.
Unfortunately, the likes of Greg Campbell and Sammy are safe.

johnnyskeleton

Jizique wrote: »

They should lose South Belfast.
They previously lost East Belfast to Long and I would enjoy that.
But I would really really love Nigel Dodds in North Belfast to lose out - it has been getting tighter and SDLP/FF need to step aside.
Unfortunately, the likes of Greg Campbell and Sammy are safe.

Surely SF should step aside in favour of a candidate who will actually take his or her seat and maybe vote against no deal Brexit if thats the case? I dont think a pact between the Nationalist parties is likely, but UUp and Alliance might agree something together

Jizique

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Surely SF should step aside in favour of a candidate who will actually take his or her seat and maybe vote against no deal Brexit if thats the case? I dont think a pact between the Nationalist parties is likely, but UUp and Alliance might agree something together

SF should step aside in SB for a clear run in NB which should guarantee 2 DUP losses

johnnyskeleton

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

For me personally my views have hardened. What goodwill I felt towards finding a solution has largely evaporated and now I think its important that the EU stands firm. The way the UK have behaved means that any change in stance on the WA by the EU, however small, will be interpreted as the EU crushing a smaller Member State and will give ammunition to the eurosceptics.

So even if there was a practical solution available, it is politically and diplomantically untenable from an Irish point of view and would be almost as divisive as the 1921 Treaty.

I suspect the change in attitude is largely from media commentators that are either looking to present a hot new take on things or else have a different agenda.

A Dub in Glasgo

Polls are all over the place, for example this one shows the Tories winning an overall majority

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1168631630027730944

johnnyskeleton

Jizique wrote: »

SF should step aside in SB for a clear run in NB which should guarantee 2 DUP losses

Perhaps, but I respect SFs policy of abstensionism and so wouldnt ask them to change that for Brexit. It would be better for SF to throw their support behind the SDLP for just this one important election and then go back to business as usual.

um7y1h83ge06nx

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

For me personally my views have hardened. What goodwill I felt towards finding a solution has largely evaporated and now I think its important that the EU stands firm. The way the UK have behaved means that any change in stance on the WA by the EU, however small, will be interpreted as the EU crushing a smaller Member State and will give ammunition to the eurosceptics.

I completely agree and I think the EU realise this but unfortunately not the UK. Ireland get shafted and other smaller states will get spooked and might want to have their own exit.

Stop moaning ffs

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Perhaps, but I respect SFs policy of abstensionism and so wouldnt ask them to change that for Brexit. It would be better for SF to throw their support behind the SDLP for just this one important election and then go back to business as usual.

Why would they? Sitting on their hands and doing nothing brings their UI goal closer. They’re not going to give up their seats to others in order to save the union when brexit in any form brings about the unions collapse all the quicker.

Peregrinus

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Polls are all over the place, for example this one shows the Tories winning an overall majority . . .

The polls on vote share are probably reasonably reliable, but the projected distribution of seats should be regarded as very rubbery indeed. With the pro-no-deal/anti-no-deal split cutting across the traditional Con/Lab split, the deficiencies of the first-past-the-post system are magnified, and the final outcome in terms of seat distribution will depend on local factors which differ from constituency to constituency. So I would treat the seat distribution as a plausible or possible outcome, but certainly not a likely one.

Zubeneschamali

careless sherpa wrote: »

May went and did a solo run and decided to pull the UK out of the SM and CU without her senior officals being aware of the plan until she announced it at the party conference.

In fairness, it makes no sense to give up EU membership and stay in the SM+CU. If you aren't leaving those you're better off Remaining and keeping your vote.

Here's me back in 2016 in the first of these Brexit threads:

I think Wolf is right - even an idiot can see that Swiss or Norwegian terms are worse than EU membership, so the voters will have to back hard brexit or admit they made a terrible mistake.

I can't see them admitting that until they've tried it.


https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101125507&postcount=4673

allthedoyles

If only they could have a GE and a referendum on the same day.
If Cons get overall majority they will immediately brag about the fact the people gave them a mandate to leave EU regardless of the terms.
Just respect the 2016 referendum result.

stoneill

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Perhaps, but I respect SFs policy of abstensionism and so wouldnt ask them to change that for Brexit. It would be better for SF to throw their support behind the SDLP for just this one important election and then go back to business as usual.

In these exceptional and fraught times SF could have abandoned their abstentionism policy for the greater good of the island of Ireland. It was small minded to adhere to a policy that was appropriate in the last century, if Britain leave with a no-deal, then SF will have to shoulder some of the blame when they could have stopped it.