Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Jizique

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

If there ends up being an election, what outcome do we want here? According to opinion polls, another hung parliament would be likely:

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850

I think the DUP to win the fewest seats possible would be on most people's wishlist, though I sadly feel they will hold most if not all of them.
What do you reckon?

They should lose South Belfast.
They previously lost East Belfast to Long and I would enjoy that.
But I would really really love Nigel Dodds in North Belfast to lose out - it has been getting tighter and SDLP/FF need to step aside.
Unfortunately, the likes of Greg Campbell and Sammy are safe.

johnnyskeleton

Jizique wrote: »

They should lose South Belfast.
They previously lost East Belfast to Long and I would enjoy that.
But I would really really love Nigel Dodds in North Belfast to lose out - it has been getting tighter and SDLP/FF need to step aside.
Unfortunately, the likes of Greg Campbell and Sammy are safe.

Surely SF should step aside in favour of a candidate who will actually take his or her seat and maybe vote against no deal Brexit if thats the case? I dont think a pact between the Nationalist parties is likely, but UUp and Alliance might agree something together

Jizique

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Surely SF should step aside in favour of a candidate who will actually take his or her seat and maybe vote against no deal Brexit if thats the case? I dont think a pact between the Nationalist parties is likely, but UUp and Alliance might agree something together

SF should step aside in SB for a clear run in NB which should guarantee 2 DUP losses

johnnyskeleton

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

For me personally my views have hardened. What goodwill I felt towards finding a solution has largely evaporated and now I think its important that the EU stands firm. The way the UK have behaved means that any change in stance on the WA by the EU, however small, will be interpreted as the EU crushing a smaller Member State and will give ammunition to the eurosceptics.

So even if there was a practical solution available, it is politically and diplomantically untenable from an Irish point of view and would be almost as divisive as the 1921 Treaty.

I suspect the change in attitude is largely from media commentators that are either looking to present a hot new take on things or else have a different agenda.

A Dub in Glasgo

Polls are all over the place, for example this one shows the Tories winning an overall majority

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1168631630027730944

johnnyskeleton

Jizique wrote: »

SF should step aside in SB for a clear run in NB which should guarantee 2 DUP losses

Perhaps, but I respect SFs policy of abstensionism and so wouldnt ask them to change that for Brexit. It would be better for SF to throw their support behind the SDLP for just this one important election and then go back to business as usual.

um7y1h83ge06nx

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

For me personally my views have hardened. What goodwill I felt towards finding a solution has largely evaporated and now I think its important that the EU stands firm. The way the UK have behaved means that any change in stance on the WA by the EU, however small, will be interpreted as the EU crushing a smaller Member State and will give ammunition to the eurosceptics.

I completely agree and I think the EU realise this but unfortunately not the UK. Ireland get shafted and other smaller states will get spooked and might want to have their own exit.

Stop moaning ffs

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Perhaps, but I respect SFs policy of abstensionism and so wouldnt ask them to change that for Brexit. It would be better for SF to throw their support behind the SDLP for just this one important election and then go back to business as usual.

Why would they? Sitting on their hands and doing nothing brings their UI goal closer. They’re not going to give up their seats to others in order to save the union when brexit in any form brings about the unions collapse all the quicker.

Peregrinus

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Polls are all over the place, for example this one shows the Tories winning an overall majority . . .

The polls on vote share are probably reasonably reliable, but the projected distribution of seats should be regarded as very rubbery indeed. With the pro-no-deal/anti-no-deal split cutting across the traditional Con/Lab split, the deficiencies of the first-past-the-post system are magnified, and the final outcome in terms of seat distribution will depend on local factors which differ from constituency to constituency. So I would treat the seat distribution as a plausible or possible outcome, but certainly not a likely one.

Zubeneschamali

careless sherpa wrote: »

May went and did a solo run and decided to pull the UK out of the SM and CU without her senior officals being aware of the plan until she announced it at the party conference.

In fairness, it makes no sense to give up EU membership and stay in the SM+CU. If you aren't leaving those you're better off Remaining and keeping your vote.

Here's me back in 2016 in the first of these Brexit threads:

I think Wolf is right - even an idiot can see that Swiss or Norwegian terms are worse than EU membership, so the voters will have to back hard brexit or admit they made a terrible mistake.

I can't see them admitting that until they've tried it.


https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=101125507&postcount=4673

allthedoyles

If only they could have a GE and a referendum on the same day.
If Cons get overall majority they will immediately brag about the fact the people gave them a mandate to leave EU regardless of the terms.
Just respect the 2016 referendum result.

stoneill

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Perhaps, but I respect SFs policy of abstensionism and so wouldnt ask them to change that for Brexit. It would be better for SF to throw their support behind the SDLP for just this one important election and then go back to business as usual.

In these exceptional and fraught times SF could have abandoned their abstentionism policy for the greater good of the island of Ireland. It was small minded to adhere to a policy that was appropriate in the last century, if Britain leave with a no-deal, then SF will have to shoulder some of the blame when they could have stopped it.

Zubeneschamali

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

HI'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

Yes, I would be interested to learn who is funding the spread of that opinion.

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I understand them not trusting him but I can’t see him allowing no deal crash out to happen.

Check the Peter Foster reporting linked just upthread.


He reports that Johnson has not even started trying to renegotiate with the EU, instead he has been running down the clock to No Deal.


The Attorney General told him to his face that the EU dropping the backstop is a total fantasy.


His only plan is to convince the EU he is going for No Deal and then negotiate mini-deals to take some of the pain out of it, which the EU have also said they are not going to do.


Everything he has said to Parliament and the British Public about renegotiating and getting a deal has been a lie.

murphaph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, I would be interested to learn who is funding the spread of that opinion.

I wonder is there any social media advertising aimed at Irish residents taking place along those lines. Maybe it's not worth the effort as the polls show strong support for the government's Brexit stance and those targeted facebook campaigns work when you have a pretty even split and just need to target the swing voters.

Stop moaning ffs

stoneill wrote: »

In these exceptional and fraught times SF could have abandoned their abstentionism policy for the greater good of the island of Ireland. It was small minded to adhere to a policy that was appropriate in the last century, if Britain leave with a no-deal, then SF will have to shoulder some of the blame when they could have stopped it.

Think you’ll find it’s the DUP own all the blame for what is to come in NI post brexit.

As has been explained several times; if SF turned up in parliament to take their seats no party no MP not a single one would or could vote along side them. No matter what. It would be an utterly pointless exercise. They could form a pact as O Toole suggested a while back and surrender their seats to SDLP or alliance but even that would cause furore as it would spun as SFIRA interfering in British democracy.

VinLieger

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

Weve been getting hut hard by UL right wing propaganda since Johnson and Cummins tool over, im not surprised such attitudes are increasing but i dont believe it will ever be popular enough for the government to change the current stance

Going Strong

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder is there any social media advertising aimed at Irish residents taking place along those lines. Maybe it's not worth the effort as the polls show strong support for the government's Brexit stance and those targeted facebook campaigns work when you have a pretty even split and just need to target the swing voters.

I've seen Brexity talkboards seizing on the comments by the usual bots, cranks and weirdos that post on the likes of Journal.ie as proof that there is a huge groundswell of support for Irexit. Or, if not that extreme, that a lot of Irish people are anti the Irish government's stance.

FrancieBrady

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

That's not necessarily the case. This from Sam Coates:


My joke last year that this would end up like flight 401 iin the Everglades is starting to look more realistic now. They're so busy looking at each other to see what they're up to, they're going to forget that the ground is coming up to meet them.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So decisive he wrote a letter for and against brexit at referendum and waited to see which way wind blew.

And voted for and against the Withdrawal Agreement. Very decisive.

is_that_so

Derek Eager Registrar wrote: »

Has there been any opinion polls ran recently in Ireland regarding people's thoughts on Brexit?

I'm increasing encountering a minority opinion that people believe we will be hit harder than the UK by Brexit and that we should change our position in order to avoid a no deal Brexit.

I myself think that we should stay firm and that Coveney, even though I'm not a fan of his party for being too left leaning and not representing people that actually work in this country, has played a blinder so far.

If these minority views are being influenced by the torrent of "information" coming out of Number 10 then PM Johnson-Cummings is doing a very good job. It takes a while to sift through it and see what crap it is between the blame game, utter hubris and completely empty plans.

prawnsambo

The Central Bank has processed 'well over' 100 authorisations for UK based financial institutions to set up or extend their operations in Ireland. Still a small amount outstanding; some of which won't be completed by b-day 3. Brexit dividend incoming.

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's not necessarily the case. This from Sam Coates:

My joke last year that this would end up like flight 401 iin the Everglades is starting to look more realistic now. They're so busy looking at each other to see what they're up to, they're going to forget that the ground is coming up to meet them.

And just to explain why this is: The word on the street is that Johnson is expected to put a motion for a GE on (or around) 14th October and then when (if) it's voted through, use prerogative powers to move it beyond 31st October. Hence Corbyn saying the legislation to block no-deal must be locked down before he'd support a motion for dissolution and a GE.

Is the nose-wheel locked?

intellectual dosser

I'm baffled as to what BJ's end game is. He must surely know deep down that the EU aren't going to budge. I understand that MPs voting to block no deal weakens his hand but his hand is incredibly weak to begin with.

Election: If there was a GE and he won every single seat what difference would it make?

No Deal: Crashing his own country into economic uncertainty, with the non-EU major economies circling like vultures. For what?


I get that these are the same questions we've been asking for a long time. Just thought they'd be somewhat clearer by now.

is_that_so

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I'm baffled as to what BJ's end game is. He must surely know deep down that the EU aren't going to budge. I understand that MPs voting to block no deal weakens his hand but his hand is incredibly weak to begin with.

Election: If there was a GE and he won every single seat what difference would it make?

No Deal: Crashing his own country into economic uncertainty, with the non-EU major economies circling like vultures. For what?


I get that these are the same questions we've been asking for a long time. Just thought they'd be somewhat clearer by now.

Because they are Britain and Britain expects! Well, England actually - nothing more and nothing less.

Christy42

I really see Conservatives getting majority in a GE.

People want this sorted. They don't want to look at the details or a potential crash. That means a decisive result which means labour or conservatives. Labour do not have a plan, conservatives do ( a bad one but that is not what will be looked at).

Many remainers will look at it and avoid conservatives but the less interested voters will go conservatives. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

CelticRambler

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

if SF turned up in parliament to take their seats no party no MP not a single one would or could vote along side them. No matter what.

Fantasy mode: how about if SF turned up today/tomorrow and publicly announced that they were going to "pledge allegiance" to the Queen on the grounds that the behaviour and proclamations of May, Johnson et al show that a promise made in Westminster is non-binding;
and having done so, indicated that they were going to vote for whatever kind of Brexit was proposed by the government in the expectation that it would cause maximum damage to the United Kingdom (a new front in their war against the Brits) and precipitate the reunification of Ireland.

Would the HoC vote to revoke Art.50 by the end of the week? :P

Stop moaning ffs

CelticRambler wrote: »

Fantasy mode: how about if SF turned up today/tomorrow and publicly announced that they were going to "pledge allegiance" to the Queen on the grounds that the behaviour and proclamations of May, Johnson et al show that a promise made in Westminster is non-binding;
and having done so, indicated that they were going to vote for whatever kind of Brexit was proposed by the government in the expectation that it would cause maximum damage to the United Kingdom (a new front in their war against the Brits) and precipitate the reunification of Ireland.

Would the HoC vote to revoke Art.50 by the end of the week? :P

I’d love it for the optics and high drama of it all

intellectual dosser

is_that_so wrote: »

Because they are Britain and Britain expects! Well, England actually - nothing more and nothing less.

England expects for sure, but at the moment nothing is expected to change by October 31st, what will England expect on October 30th?