Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

mrbrianj

Going Strong wrote: »

I've seen Brexity talkboards seizing on the comments by the usual bots, cranks and weirdos that post on the likes of Journal.ie as proof that there is a huge groundswell of support for Irexit. Or, if not that extreme, that a lot of Irish people are anti the Irish government's stance.

What none of them explain is how letting the UK off the hook of the backstop in any way benefits our economy. A no deal or no backstop will trash our economy either way.

realdanbreen

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

is_that_so

intellectual dosser wrote: »

England expects for sure, but at the moment nothing is expected to change by October 31st, what will England expect on October 30th?

Ah no spoilers please!

DOCARCH

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

He will be in trouble (with his own party)! His whole leadership campaign was based on UK leaving on October 31st no matter what.

His only real option is to try and get passing of no no deal brexit delayed as much as possible in the House of Lords by means of endless amendments and/or filibustering.

is_that_so

Christy42 wrote: »

I really see Conservatives getting majority in a GE.

People want this sorted. They don't want to look at the details or a potential crash. That means a decisive result which means labour or conservatives. Labour do not have a plan, conservatives do ( a bad one but that is not what will be looked at).

Many remainers will look at it and avoid conservatives but the less interested voters will go conservatives. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

In normal times yes they probably would. Someone from Delta, who run polls was on after the major speech. Strange times he said and it's way too unpredictable to call. Will there be pacts? How will true blue voters respond to the party cosying up to Farage and co? Will Labour put up a real fight?

VinLieger

Christy42 wrote: »

I really see Conservatives getting majority in a GE.

People want this sorted. They don't want to look at the details or a potential crash. That means a decisive result which means labour or conservatives. Labour do not have a plan, conservatives do ( a bad one but that is not what will be looked at).

Many remainers will look at it and avoid conservatives but the less interested voters will go conservatives. Obviously I hope I am wrong.

If Brexit isnt delivered the Brexit Party will split the Conservative vote which should be the real concern for the Conservatives because if Labour and Lib Dems can get their act together theres going to be a lot of potentially vulnerable seats up for grabs

LuckyLloyd

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Labour voting against an election after today would be really interesting.
What would Johnson do then, having been instructed to ask for an extension? What are his options?

Resign
He’d be completely powerless and irrelevant

darem93

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

Going Strong

prawnsambo wrote: »

The Central Bank has processed 'well over' 100 authorisations for UK based financial institutions to set up or extend their operations in Ireland. Still a small amount outstanding; some of which won't be completed by b-day 3. Brexit dividend incoming.

I work in financial services. Our company closed their London office last year as they couldn't take the risk of the UK becoming a third country under GDPR legislation. So that was 50-odd jobs that moved to Dublin where they have now set up shop advising other UK-based financial companies on how to make a similar move.

It still blows my mind that No Deal is actually being sought after by some people..

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

It still blows my mind that No Deal is actually being sought after by some people..

It's seen as a victory, a very hollow one IMO. Better they leave on their own terms than bow to the EU.

farmchoice

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

thats a trap for boris, he would have to campaign on ''no deal'' not a better deal.

johnnyskeleton

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Why would they? Sitting on their hands and doing nothing brings their UI goal closer. They’re not going to give up their seats to others in order to save the union when brexit in any form brings about the unions collapse all the quicker.

As I said, I dont thjnk its likely. But in response to the other poster who suggested that the SDLP stand aside to try to stop Brexit, logically it should be SF who should do this, not SDLP

johnnyskeleton

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

It wont happen. If you can stomach it, have a listen to Farages radio show. He is more critical of Johnson than he is of Corbyn, probably because Johnson is stealing his thunder.

The key word in the Brexit party proposal is "if" Boris promises a no deal. But they will say Boris wants a deal and is only using no deal as a bluff (which is probably true)

CelticRambler

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

That's an optimistic forecast! There are a huge number of Tory Leavers (and on-the-fencers) who despise Boris' flagrant disrespect for Parliament. If the Brexit Party don't put up a candidate, there's a risk that this kind of voter will simply abstain - especially if it's in a supposedly safe seat where their one vote "doesn't count".

FPTP works really well at returning one party with a meaningful majority when there are only two choices; but that strength becomes a huge weakness when the them-or-us choice is complicated by the presence of unelectable characters in the main parties. This is, in effect, how Macron seized power in France. It's as much in the realms of fantasy as SF taking their seats, but just about conceivable that there are enough disillusioned Tory remainers in many constituencies who hate the thought of Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM to put their X in the Lib Dem's box.

Stop moaning ffs

Been listening to farage the last few weeks. His obvious rebranding of no deal into clean brexit aside,

If he actually got into a position to drive through his ‘clean brexit’ he’d absolutely brick himself.

He’s a mouth playing for attention. If he found himself involved with any power he’d be singing an entirely different song.

He’s singing this one cos he knows it’ll never happen.

is_that_so

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

It wont happen. If you can stomach it, have a listen to Farages radio show. He is more critical of Johnson than he is of Corbyn, probably because Johnson is stealing his thunder.

The key word in the Brexit party proposal is "if" Boris promises a no deal. But they will say Boris wants a deal and is only using no deal as a bluff (which is probably true)

Farage also envisions himself addressing his true peers in the only parliament that matters.

trellheim

Gavin Barwell tweets

V important thread for MPs who would support a deal but not no deal. I've had same reports re "sham negotiations" from multiple govt sources. If not true (my views were sometimes misreported when I was Chief of Staff) Government should publish its proposals to replace backstop

https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1168772470415011840


Ex Theresa May Chief of Staff

LeinsterDub

darem93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1168792492038217728

If this is the case Boris is definitely looking at an outright majority. The main hope to get the Tories out of government was them and the Brexit Party splitting the vote. Now Boris will receive all the no deal votes, while the Remain votes will be split between Lib Debs, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and I guess Labour too.

It reminds me of Labour not standing in 1918 and completely missing the boat for the next 40 years

BarryD2

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

Sure they don't even know themselves if, why and how they want to leave. How would anyone else know?

SeaBreezes

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

A: So the wealthy with offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands won't have to declare their assets or pay tax on them as per new EU tax laws announced in 2016 to be enforced this year.
B: no advantages unless you are one of the top 1% who control gov and media.
C: Disadvantages are obvious for all but the 1% who will make MORE money from an impoverished nation.

BarryD2

Anyone know what would happen in constituencies where there'd be Tory rebels if a GE was called in next few days. Presumably they'd lose the whip and maybe expelled from the party. But if they have the backing of their local Tory party team, how could the Tories then run a new candidate there? They'd effectively be conceding the seat either to the opposition or Farage's party. Surely this wouldn't help Boris get his majority, so the strategy of isolating them would backfire on him?

Stop moaning ffs

So now they have £100 million brexit ready campaign funds to play with.

https://twitter.com/bazziesmith/status/1168664085325582336?s=21

prawnsambo

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU

Main reason: Immigration. Unfortunately for them, the source of their fear of immigrants has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with their past colonial history. Imo of course.

B: Advantages for doing so

Only real stated advantage is their ability to strike trade deals on their own. All the others are illusory. Like sovereignty or taking control of their money, borders and laws.

C: Disadvantages for doing so.

Any trade deal worth having would place the UK as by far the junior partner and pretty much decimate their domestic business sectors like agri-food and manufacturing. Any other trade deal where the UK is the larger partner would be so small as to be insignificant in relation to the trade they do with the EU. And all the big trade deals will take years. Any that take less time will be eye-wateringly painful. And they will be completely over a barrel, ripe for a jolly old rogering.

TL:DR: Brexit will tear the heart out of the UK economy and have it on life support for decades. All for 'feelings'.

Zubeneschamali

intellectual dosser wrote: »

No Deal: Crashing his own country into economic uncertainty, with the non-EU major economies circling like vultures. For what?

Johnson has been handed the job of Prime Minister, but he has boxed himself into a corner to get it. The only path to any sort of win is to be the PM who delivers Brexit.

So, run down the clock, prorogue Parliament, call an election - anything to stop Parliament preventing Brexit on the 31st October.

If Parliament do manage to prevent it, call an election as the leader in favour of Brexit who was stymied by Remoaner traitors. If he gets a majority, immediate Brexit. If not, well, he's lost and it's over.

The fact that "winning" would be a catastrophe for the UK and possibly bring about its end - who cares? He gets to be PM for another few weeks, and that is what it is all about.

ath262

if the Rebels Alliance get to debate their bill and it looks like getting passed, resulting in Boris following through on the Elections threat, we could see the ridiculous situation of the Government trying to vote itself out of office, and failing .... providing the Rebels (inc. Labour) stick to their guns and vote against (or abstain?)

Zubeneschamali

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can anyone , in not more than 4 lines explain
A: Main reason why Britain want to leave EU
B: Advantages for doing so
C: Disadvantages for doing so.

A. Bloody immigrants
B. Blue passports and bendy bananas.
C. 1 year of crisis: food, medicine, fuel shortages, protests, riots, baton charges, army on the streets. Then 10 years of depressed trade, capital flight, disinvestment, factory closures, job losses, NHS crisis, falling Government revenues, cuts to services, recession. Government grab for emergency powers and sweeping human rights abuses when out from under European courts. Xenophobia and racism on show as immigrants targeted, blamed for taking our jobs etc when Brexit is a disaster. End of the UK as Scotland leaves to reapply to the EU. NI in crisis as agriculture wiped out. Ongoing national humiliation at EU trade talks as the EU twist the knife.

So, much like the usual under a Tory government.

prawnsambo

BarryD2 wrote: »

Anyone know what would happen in constituencies where there'd be Tory rebels if a GE was called in next few days. Presumably they'd lose the whip and maybe expelled from the party. But if they have the backing of their local Tory party team, how could the Tories then run a new candidate there? They'd effectively be conceding the seat either to the opposition or Farage's party. Surely this wouldn't help Boris get his majority, so the strategy of isolating them would backfire on him?

Well even if the local committee refused to deselect them, they can be deselected and replaced by central HQ. Obviously that's a nuclear option and would probably affect campaigning on the ground. And likely the deselected MP would stand as an independent and possibly have the local party machine on side. There will undoubtedly be some (perhaps even a majority) that would toe the line and deselect locally. But it would still likely end up with a split vote. So called safe seats would be the hardest for an independent Tory to take. So it's a gamble of 'you win some, you lose some' for HQ. I'm sure they've figured which ones they'd likely lose at this stage and are prepared to take any losses and hope for gains elsewhere.

Enzokk

ath262 wrote: »

if the Rebels Alliance get to debate their bill and it looks like getting passed, resulting in Boris following through on the Elections threat, we could see the ridiculous situation of the Government trying to vote itself out of office, and failing .... providing the Rebels (inc. Labour) stick to their guns and vote against (or abstain?)

Johnson cannot call an election himself though. If he loses control of parliament there isn't much he can do other than wait for the other side to do what they need to.

Gunmonkey

SeaBreezes wrote: »

A: So the wealthy with offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands won't have to declare their assets or pay tax on them as per new EU tax laws announced in 2016 to be enforced this year.
B: no advantages unless you are one of the top 1% who control gov and media.
C: Disadvantages are obvious for all but the 1% who will make MORE money from an impoverished nation.

Could add to B

-Investors who are speculating against the British economy after OCt 31 stand to make a killing (I really dont know how it works, just that if the economy sinks, some people make loads of cash)
-Large investors sitting on billions wait for Nov 1st and then treat it as a supermarket sweep at the British stock market, picking up companies for a song