Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ath262

afaik he can try under the fixed term act, but needs 60%(?) to pass which is unlikely - but trying this and failing will just make him look daft (dafter...)

Professor Moriarty

ath262 wrote: »

afaik he can try under the fixed term act, but needs 60%(?) to pass which is unlikely - but trying this and failing will just make him look daft (dafter...)

He needs 66%. Interesting knife edge

ilovesmybrick

Mairead McGuinness is on Pat Kenny at the moment. It's worth listening back to to get a sense of how the the recent shenanigans are coming across to the EP.

realdanbreen

prawnsambo wrote: »

Main reason: Immigration. Unfortunately for them, the source of their fear of immigrants has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with their past colonial history. Imo of course.


Only real stated advantage is their ability to strike trade deals on their own. All the others are illusory. Like sovereignty or taking control of their money, borders and laws.


Any trade deal worth having would place the UK as by far the junior partner and pretty much decimate their domestic business sectors like agri-food and manufacturing. Any other trade deal where the UK is the larger partner would be so small as to be insignificant in relation to the trade they do with the EU. And all the big trade deals will take years. Any that take less time will be eye-wateringly painful. And they will be completely over a barrel, ripe for a jolly old rogering.

TL:DR: Brexit will tear the heart out of the UK economy and have it on life support for decades. All for 'feelings'.

Excellent post. I watch various British current affairs and news programmes and have not seen or heard any presenter put lucid and simple facts as above to any panellist!

Pedro K

Naggdefy wrote: »

In a hierarchy of blame for the Brexit fiasco I think I'd apportion blame to 1. Cameron for such poor judgement. 2. Corbyn for such ineffectual opposition. May did as best she could and Johnson is just the fopish clown we all knew he was with delusions of being a renegade statesman like Churchill.

May deserves a large portion of the blame too. She drew the red lines that led us to this point.

She called the election that led to the DUP holding the balance of power, and she subsequently did the dirty deal with the DUP.

She triggered article 50 without a "sketch of a plan."

She coined the phrase "No deal is better than a bad deal."

is_that_so

Some more musings on what EU countries in general are thinking! I think we've run out of words for it TBH.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

VinLieger

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Mairead McGuinness is on Pat Kenny at the moment. It's worth listening back to to get a sense of how the the recent shenanigans are coming across to the EP.

Dominic Grieve on now should be interesting to hear what he has to say

robinph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He needs 66%. Interesting knife edge

Yes, except it won't be Johnson doing the asking.

Johnson is trying to trick Corbyn into doing the asking by calling a VoNC. You hardly call a vote on yourself being useless.

Water John

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

What that shows above all, is that Katya Adler performs to whatever audience she is addressing. Is this her true journalism and what she does on TV a performance?

is_that_so

Water John wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

What that shows above all, is that Katya Adler performs to whatever audience she is addressing. Is this her true journalism and what she does on TV a performance?

Posted about three posts up! Without the attendant commentary of course.

briany

In the event of a GE, a surge in seats for the Lib Dems will say to the Conservatives... absolutely nothing. Neither main party will acknowledge it, in fact. Any attempt to ask their representatives about it will be met with, "...we have been given a mandate to deliver Brexit..."

Professor Moriarty

is_that_so wrote: »

Some more musings on what EU countries in general are thinking! I think we've run out of words for it TBH.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49553654

Having been on the continent in various countries recently, there is very little reportage on the implosion within British democracy. Mostly, they simply have no interest anymore. Any news on Brexit, Johnson, Parliament etc. is dismissive. If Britain thought that Brexit would show Europe what Britain is really like, then it has been an unqualified success.

briany

Pedro K wrote: »

May deserves a large portion of the blame too. She drew the red lines that led us to this point.

She called the election that led to the DUP holding the balance of power, and she subsequently did the dirty deal with the DUP.

She triggered article 50 without a "sketch of a plan."

She coined the phrase "No deal is better than a bad deal."

May didn't really draw the red lines so much as she was the one shoved out in front of the cameras to speak about them. At least it's hard to believe that someone who campaigned for Remain would box the country into such a tight position of their own volition.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

In the event of a GE, a surge in seats for the Lib Dems will say to the Conservatives... absolutely nothing. Neither main party will acknowledge it, in fact. Any attempt to ask their representatives about it will be met with, "...we have been given a mandate to deliver Brexit..."

I would consider donating to the Brexit party to help them erode the Tory vote.

lobbylad

I can't find a schedule of events for today? Is there a set time when the various actions can/will take place or is it all up in the air?

Looking at the Agenda for the HoC it looks like business as usual, will the rebels have to bring SO24 in at a particular time?

lawred2

Mother in law over from Scotland again - almost lost my nerve last night with her. I'll have to make the house a Brexit free zone for the next 10 days.

Wifey at one point while her Mum was going on about sovereignty just straight up blurted out - "Since when have you ever given two f**k ing ****s about sovereignty Mum?"

Apparently she can't stomach all the remoaner media (ALL of the media) and now she gets her fair analysis from youtube.. Gave us the whole EU forced Ireland into revotes spiel despite this being about the fourth visit where I've explained that to be a complete misrepresentation of reality. Also explained that the likes of youtube only serve up content based on what you've been watching previously - but she didn't quite get that. She simply went for the 'sure they can't all be lying'..

At that point I died inside.

There is no coming back from where people have gotten themselves I'm afraid. Reality and the desire to be rational has gone out the window.

My wife thinks it good for her to come here and get the opposite side of things because she's immersing herself in unchallenged fact free bullsh!t when she's at home... I don't know - I see it as a waste of time.

We did get around to her admitting that a lot of her vote was down to feeling worse off than she did 30 years ago... And I do think that's a real and tangible reality for a lot of British people. And it's understandable. For Irish people it's largely the opposite. She even began to concede that the referendum vote was largely a kick out at something perceived rightly or wrongly as a contributor. When asked for one thing that she sees as possibly being better for her in a year post Brexit - she shrugged and said 'probably nothing'...

Would she change her vote in another referendum?

No she wouldn't.

I won't even go into her views on backstop.

boggerman1

Headbanger on lbc.wants dirtier cars to drive and bigger hand towels.such control.Jesus wept

gimli2112

I think you touched on one of the main issues lawred2 and that lots of people are struggling in many areas of the UK. I have no doubt a Brexit works well for the elite but there's large sections of society who can't see things being any worse and things are already so bad why not look for a massive change, such as Brexit?


I think the whole world is becoming a basketcase we're just seeing a lot of the UK issue specifically because of geography and it's really going to affect us too.

Peregrinus

briany wrote: »

May didn't really draw the red lines so much as she was the one shoved out in front of the cameras to speak about them. At least it's hard to believe that someone who campaigned for Remain would box the country into such a tight position of their own volition.

She absolutely did draw them. She spent months aftere becoming PM spouting platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and "Red, White and Blue Brexit" while she worked out what kind of Brexit she would pursue, and finally in her Florence speech she laid down her red lines that dictated that the UK would pursue a hard Brexit. That was absolutely her choice.

As for being "someone who campaigned for Remain", I never found her pose as a Remainer very convincing. She was the most milk-and-watery Remainer you could find.

My take on this is:

1. May was always a Leaver by instinct.

2. But she didn't think Leave was politically attainable, and didn't really think too deeply about what Leave might entail, or even about why it seemed to her to be a good idea.

3. When the referendum came, she didn't think Leave could win, and she wasn't going to expend political capital pursuing it. So she identified as Remainer but, for the reasons just given, it wasn't a very convincing pose.

4. When she became PM after the referendum Brexiters welcomed and supported her, suggesting that they shared my perception; they saw her as a Leaver, and they trusted her as one. Remember the outrage when the courts ruled that she had to be accountable to Parliament in her implementation of Brexit?

5. Her instinctive Leaver status turned out to be based on a dislike of immigrants. The one aspect of her Brexit on which she would never compromise was that the UK would not accept FoM. For that reason she set the "no Single Market" red line. The "no Customs Union" was there to win support from Brexiters motivated by a desire for the UK to pursue an independent trade policy. She was, it later turned out, willing to compromise somewhat on that, but she couldn't sell the compromise to the ultras (and as far as I can see didn't really try).

6. Brexiters only decided that she was a Remainer after all when she tried to craft a real-world Brexit. Since that involved making difficult choices, Brexiters either had to acknowledge that Brexit did involve difficult choices, something they had up to that point been in denial about, or denounce her. They chose the latter course.

Shelga

I love Alex Andreou from the Remainiacs podcast. His voice is usually so calming but it’s clear he’s running out of patience, and it’s hard to disagree with anything he says in this tweet:

https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1168503166347948032?s=21

Stop moaning ffs

Shelga wrote: »

I love Alex Andreou from the Remainiacs podcast. His voice is usually so calming but it’s clear he’s running out of patience, and it’s hard to disagree with anything he says in this tweet:

https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1168503166347948032?s=21

He’s brilliant.

realdanbreen

lawred2 wrote: »

Mother in law over from Scotland again - almost lost my nerve last night with her. I'll have to make the house a Brexit free zone for the next 10 days.

Wifey at one point while her Mum was going on about sovereignty just straight up blurted out - "Since when have you ever given two f**k ing ****s about sovereignty Mum?"

Apparently she can't stomach all the remoaner media (ALL of the media) and now she gets her fair analysis from youtube.. Gave us the whole EU forced Ireland into revotes spiel despite this being about the fourth visit where I've explained that to be a complete misrepresentation of reality. Also explained that the likes of youtube only serve up content based on what you've been watching previously - but she didn't quite get that. She simply went for the 'sure they can't all be lying'..

At that point I died inside.

There is no coming back from where people have gotten themselves I'm afraid. Reality and the desire to be rational has gone out the window.

My wife thinks it good for her to come here and get the opposite side of things because she's immersing herself in unchallenged fact free bullsh!t when she's at home... I don't know - I see it as a waste of time.

We did get around to her admitting that a lot of her vote was down to feeling worse off than she did 30 years ago... And I do think that's a real and tangible reality for a lot of British people. And it's understandable. For Irish people it's largely the opposite. She even began to concede that the referendum vote was largely a kick out at something perceived rightly or wrongly as a contributor. When asked for one thing that she sees as possibly being better for her in a year post Brexit - she shrugged and said 'probably nothing'...

Would she change her vote in another referendum?

No she wouldn't.

I won't even go into her views on backstop.

Sounds like she might have a 'Groundkeeper Willie' way of analysing things!

prawnsambo

Gunmonkey wrote: »

Could add to B

-Investors who are speculating against the British economy after OCt 31 stand to make a killing (I really dont know how it works, just that if the economy sinks, some people make loads of cash)
-Large investors sitting on billions wait for Nov 1st and then treat it as a supermarket sweep at the British stock market, picking up companies for a song

There's already a start on bargain basement UK businesses. Like British Steel being taken over by the Turkish military pension fund. Chuckle. And I think a few Irish companies have been in and picked up some juicy ones as well. Too lazy/busy to look it up, but recall a few announcements recently.

And of course the pound is expected to tank by up to 25% (BoE forecast), so that's a VERY juicy prospect for currency speculators

trellheim

More leaks on AA

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1168769390843768832

trellheim

Remember I said this was a Nikki Da Costa wheeze a little while ago ?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1168827437226106880

Court papers reveal an Aug 15 email from No10 Parliamentary handling advisor Nikki da Costa to the PM and Dominic Cummings saying they should prorogue Pt from Sept 9 (this Monday)

which is ok as far as it goes, its her job to come up with this stuff. However the nuclear bit for me here is

More
A handwritten note from the PM Boris Johnson on Aug 16 said that “the whole Sept session is a rigmarole ((redacted)) introduced to show the public MPs are earning their crust, so I don’t see anything shocking about this decision”

ouch

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

She absolutely did draw them. She spent months aftere becoming PM spouting platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and "Red, White and Blue Brexit" while she worked out what kind of Brexit she would pursue, and finally in her Florence speech she laid down her red lines that dictated that the UK would pursue a hard Brexit. That was absolutely her choice.

As for being "someone who campaigned for Remain", I never found her pose as a Remainer very convincing. She was the most milk-and-watery Remainer you could find.

My take on this is:

1. May was always a Leaver by instinct.

2. But she didn't think Leave was politically attainable, and didn't really think too deeply about what Leave might entail, or even about why it seemed to her to be a good idea.

3. When the referendum came, she didn't think Leave could win, and she wasn't going to expend political capital pursuing it. So she identified as Remainer but, for the reasons just given, it wasn't a very convincing pose.

4. When she became PM after the referendum Brexiters welcomed and supported her, suggesting that they shared my perception; they saw her as a Leaver, and they trusted her as one. Remember the outrage when the courts ruled that she had to be accountable to Parliament in her implementation of Brexit?

5. Her instinctive Leaver status turned out to be based on a dislike of immigrants. The one aspect of her Brexit on which she would never compromise was that the UK would not accept FoM. For that reason she set the "no Single Market" red line. The "no Customs Union" was there to win support from Brexiters motivated by a desire for the UK to pursue an independent trade policy. She was, it later turned out, willing to compromise somewhat on that, but she couldn't sell the compromise to the ultras (and as far as I can see didn't really try).

6. Brexiters only decided that she was a Remainer after all when she tried to craft a real-world Brexit. Since that involved making difficult choices, Brexiters either had to acknowledge that Brexit did involve difficult choices, something they had up to that point been in denial about, or denounce her. They chose the latter course.

The one thing people who know her say about May is that she is dead set against immigration. Her stint at the Home Office was charactarised by the 'Go Home' vans. And she lost a few landmark cases in the ECJ. Which added that institution to the top of her hate pile.



So if you look at those two aspects in the light of EU membership, her red lines pretty much draw a demarcation line through where her prejudices meet the EU four pillars.

gooch2k9

lobbylad wrote: »

I can't find a schedule of events for today? Is there a set time when the various actions can/will take place or is it all up in the air?

Looking at the Agenda for the HoC it looks like business as usual, will the rebels have to bring SO24 in at a particular time?

No action until after 17:00 according to BBC live politics feed.

quokula

Peregrinus wrote: »

She absolutely did draw them. She spent months aftere becoming PM spouting platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and "Red, White and Blue Brexit" while she worked out what kind of Brexit she would pursue, and finally in her Florence speech she laid down her red lines that dictated that the UK would pursue a hard Brexit. That was absolutely her choice.

As for being "someone who campaigned for Remain", I never found her pose as a Remainer very convincing. She was the most milk-and-watery Remainer you could find.

My take on this is:

1. May was always a Leaver by instinct.

2. But she didn't think Leave was politically attainable, and didn't really think too deeply about what Leave might entail, or even about why it seemed to her to be a good idea.

3. When the referendum came, she didn't think Leave could win, and she wasn't going to expend political capital pursuing it. So she identified as Remainer but, for the reasons just given, it wasn't a very convincing pose.

4. When she became PM after the referendum Brexiters welcomed and supported her, suggesting that they shared my perception; they saw her as a Leaver, and they trusted her as one. Remember the outrage when the courts ruled that she had to be accountable to Parliament in her implementation of Brexit?

5. Her instinctive Leaver status turned out to be based on a dislike of immigrants. The one aspect of her Brexit on which she would never compromise was that the UK would not accept FoM. For that reason she set the "no Single Market" red line. The "no Customs Union" was there to win support from Brexiters motivated by a desire for the UK to pursue an independent trade policy. She was, it later turned out, willing to compromise somewhat on that, but she couldn't sell the compromise to the ultras (and as far as I can see didn't really try).

6. Brexiters only decided that she was a Remainer after all when she tried to craft a real-world Brexit. Since that involved making difficult choices, Brexiters either had to acknowledge that Brexit did involve difficult choices, something they had up to that point been in denial about, or denounce her. They chose the latter course.

Agree with this totally, it's amazing the extent to which she's been pushed as an arch remainer when she set out so many red lines to go for the hardest Brexit possible (without reneging on things like the Good Friday agreement and existing commitments)

During the referendum the only real argument she gave for remain was basically "sure, I hate Europeans too, but we need the treaties to be able to deport people effectively and to be obstructive in EU parliament"



Here's some actual full word for word quotes from her big pro-remain speech:

The ECHR can bind the hands of Parliament, adds nothing to our prosperity, makes us less secure by preventing the deportation of dangerous foreign nationals – and does nothing to change the attitudes of governments like Russia’s when it comes to human rights. So regardless of the EU referendum, my view is this. If we want to reform human rights laws in this country, it isn’t the EU we should leave but the ECHR and the jurisdiction of its Court.

Outside the EU, for example, we would have no access to the European Arrest Warrant, which has allowed us to extradite more than 5,000 people from Britain to Europe in the last five years

And it is time to question some of the traditional British assumptions about our engagement with the EU. Do we stop the EU going in the wrong direction by shouting on the sidelines, or by leading and making the case for taking Europe in a better direction? And do we really still think it is in our interests to support automatically and unconditionally the EU’s further expansion? The states now negotiating to join the EU include Albania, Serbia and Turkey – countries with poor populations and serious problems with organised crime, corruption, and sometimes even terrorism. We have to ask ourselves, is it really right that the EU should just continue to expand, conferring upon all new member states all the rights of membership? Do we really think now is the time to contemplate a land border between the EU and countries like Iran, Iraq and Syria? Having agreed the end of the European principle of “ever closer union”, it is time to question the principle of ever wider expansion.

Larbre34

People are over thinking Theresa May's approach. Yes she's an old fashioned one-nation conservative whose instinct is probably for arms length co-operation with Europe, but her own skin in the game is as MP for the strongly cosmopolitan and FDI heavy tech and pharma M4 corridor from Maidenhead to Slough and Reading. She's BRINO to the core.

boggerman1

boggerman1 wrote: »

Headbanger on lbc.wants dirtier cars to drive and bigger hand towels.such control.Jesus wept

OK I have to ask; what's this about hand towels?