Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs

[Deleted User] wrote: »

OK I have to ask; what's this about hand towels?

The caller used these two examples of emissions on cars and hand towel sizes as examples of Eu forcing rules on the uk

And the Eu are going to force Britain to dissolve its army

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

OK I have to ask; what's this about hand towels?

Really curious about this, couldn't find anything about it on the EU's euromyths list

ancapailldorcha

quokula wrote: »

Agree with this totally, it's amazing the extent to which she's been pushed as an arch remainer when she set out so many red lines to go for the hardest Brexit possible (without reneging on things like the Good Friday agreement and existing commitments)

It isn't when you think about it.

Brexit's strength is in it's impossibility to define in clear, specific language. May's primary problem was that she just happened to be the one who drank from the poisoned chalice and survive. Ultimately, this is what killed her. Brexit cannot be all things to all people. The backstop compounded this difficulty further.

None of this is to say of course that she didn't create significant problems herself. As Peregrinus notes, her Florence speech was where she decided to box herself in with the red lines she drew for herself. With these in mind, the EU afforded the UK as much access to the single market as it could. We've all seen the slide detailing how a CETA-style free trade deal is the only way an accord can be reached which satisfies these completely artifical red lines.

In addition, she made several other mistakes. The go home vans seem to serve no purpose to me save for shoring up her anti-FoM credentials to people who were always going to betray her when it suited them or when the fog began to lift from Brexit. She also afforded far too much power to her "chiefs", Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill who came to be despised and not without reason.

Even with all this in mind, I think that she would never have dared to prorogue Parliament. She was not in favor of a no deal Brexit and would have been much easier for Parliament to handle. In a way, Johnson can provide the necessary impetus for Remain to organise itself but now he has gone a bit too far to be too hopeful.

trellheim

USD to GBP close to 5-10 year low , 1.19 reached this morning

EUR - GBP holding steady at .91 but if we see HMG going postal tonight it will be fun

Stop moaning ffs

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

1 seat for brexit party with 14% of vote

That lib dem constituency in Northern Scotland is sort of astonishing. Wasn’t aware of them having much traction in Scotland. Would have thought the further north in Scotland you went the bigger the SNP support you’d have

ancapailldorcha

Please do not discuss other fora here.

LordBasil

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

1 seat for brexit party with 14% of vote

That's 'First Past The Post' for you!!

I'd be very wary of reading too much into current opinion polls as last time (2017) they had Labour 20 points behind the Tories and look what happened.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That lib dem constituency in Northern Scotland is sort of astonishing. Wasn’t aware of them having much traction in Scotland. Would have thought the further north in Scotland you went the bigger the SNP support you’d have

But think of the damage they will do to the Tories. Go Nigel.

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

Really curious about this, couldn't find anything about it on the EU's euromyths list

It's been posited that it came from this site. Don't go there, the site certificate is iffy, but here's the Wikipedia (the site doesn't like Wikipedia either as it's too 'liberal') entry.

ath262

interesting possible twist... from Tim Shipman twitter
(Political Editor, Sunday Times)..

"...you can get around the 2\3rds majority needed for an election in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act by passing a one line bill that says notwithstanding the FTPA, we will have a general election on X date”


key phrase being 'by passing a one line bill', good luck with that if the Alliance holds..

newport2

Excellent article by Ivan Rogers about the reality of a no-deal brexit here, well worth a read

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/ivan-rogers-the-realities-of-a-no-deal-brexit/

Nody

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

1 seat for brexit party with 14% of vote

But also look at Lib Dems 21% for 60 seats, Labour 24% for 199 seats and people ask why their voting system is fecked up.

trellheim

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190903so24.pdf


Proposal for S024 debate ... we will find out very shortly if Bercow will go for it ...

Winters

LordBasil wrote: »

That's 'First Past The Post' for you!!

I'd be very wary of reading too much into current opinion polls as last time (2017) they had Labour 20 points behind the Tories and look what happened.

Not enough noise is made of the 2011 referendum result, probably because the word 'referendum' is so toxic now, but British politics will remain broken as long as FPTP remains.

For all the change in politics that people advocate, that is the first place they should be looking. FPTP is simply not fit for modern democracy.

Zubeneschamali

The Daily Mail have got the latest Yellowhammer report, the one Gove was going to release but pulled yesterday in case it would cause alarm. It has the usual food, medicine and fuel shortages, civil unrest, travel delays, but on a subject we were discussing upthread, trucks queuing to Dover, it has the remarkable statement:

But the official assessment forecasts disruption at the Channel ports, with lorries queuing for up to two-and-a-half days to deal with new customs controls in France. It predicts that queues could stretch for more than 60 miles, blocking the M25 at the Dartford Crossing, ‘which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South East’.

Stop moaning ffs

The watered down version as O Brien just rightly pointed out.

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In addition, she made several other mistakes. The go home vans seem to serve no purpose to me save for shoring up her anti-FoM credentials to people who were always going to betray her when it suited them or when the fog began to lift from Brexit. She also afforded far too much power to her "chiefs", Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill who came to be despised and not without reason.

The go home vans she sent out predate Brexit. They weren't anything to do with shoring up her anti-FoM credentials. They were there because she wanted them there. She wanted them there because pursuing a xenophobic agenda has been high on her priority list for her entire career, irrespective of Brexit.

Maybe that was against her own judgement and on the advice of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, it's impossible to know what went on behind closed doors, but ultimately her decisions fall on her.

They were definitely nothing to do with appeasing Brexiters though, as that wasn't even a demographic that existed at the time. It's arguable that her career as home secretary, consistently putting anti-immigrant rhetoric on the agenda, had a lot to do with creating the conditions that allowed for the leave vote.

trellheim

As Home Sec TM was consistently strong on immigration control.

Shelga

In relation to Alex Andreou’s tweet, this line that Remainers are to blame for the current situation is beyond ridiculous, and anyone with half a brain could see that.

I lived in the UK in 2016 and I voted Remain. I was saddened by the result of the referendum, but I refused to sign the petition that was going around in the days after, calling for a second vote. I thought it smacked of being bad losers and unwilling to accept democracy. I naively assumed that parliament would reach some agreement on how to leave, because that’s what responsible nations do.

Now it’s over 3 years later, and no version of Brexit is available which doesn’t damage the country. Because none exists. If the hardline Brexiters had voted for May’s deal, they would have left the EU 6 months ago. They didn’t because they know it’s rubbish.

How they have managed to convince people that crashing out is actually the One True Brexit, rather than a complete and utter failure to achieve anything at all, is absolutely incredible. And if Farage, who constantly bleats on about ‘the undemocratic treaty’ had actually read article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty before June 2016, he would know that it specifically says that withdrawal will be negotiated, and a future framework agreed- “the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.”

They did exactly what the Lisbon treaty said- and now he’s convinced everyone that they’ve been forced to agree terms of withdrawal rather than go straight into a free trade agreement.

I had a particularly ugly text exchange with a former Brexiter colleague about it all the other day, where he said he couldn’t give a **** about Northern Ireland- it’s really, really hard not to think- let them burn. Let their factories close, let their financial services flee, let hundreds of thousands lose their jobs- who cares anymore. They have become an ugly, ugly nation.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It predicts that queues could stretch for more than 60 miles

I'm nearly sure someone, somewhere, at some point earlier in the year, said that the queues would be 80 miles - so see: they are taking steps to mitigate the disruption!

Enzokk

quokula wrote: »

Agree with this totally, it's amazing the extent to which she's been pushed as an arch remainer when she set out so many red lines to go for the hardest Brexit possible (without reneging on things like the Good Friday agreement and existing commitments)

During the referendum the only real argument she gave for remain was basically "sure, I hate Europeans too, but we need the treaties to be able to deport people effectively and to be obstructive in EU parliament"



Here's some actual full word for word quotes from her big pro-remain speech:

I find it astonishing that the Home Secretary didn't know that the ECHR is pivotal to the Good Friday Agreement. This isn't even debatable, like when we have had discussions that the GFA doesn't state that NI has to be in the EU. There is no spirit when it comes to this argument.

Theresa May wrote:

The ECHR can bind the hands of Parliament, adds nothing to our prosperity, makes us less secure by preventing the deportation of dangerous foreign nationals – and does nothing to change the attitudes of governments like Russia’s when it comes to human rights. So regardless of the EU referendum, my view is this. If we want to reform human rights laws in this country, it isn’t the EU we should leave but the ECHR and the jurisdiction of its Court.

Good Friday agreement,

United Kingdom Legislation
2. The British Government will complete incorporation into Northern
Ireland law of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), with
direct access to the courts, and remedies for breach of the Convention,
including power for the courts to overrule Assembly legislation on
grounds of inconsistency.

Good Friday Agreement

So May was so blinded by her dislike of the ECHR she was willing to break an international treaty to get rid of it, or like most politicians she wasn't aware of what she was proposing. Doesn't inspire confidence when your Home Secretary is so uninformed, never mind that she was able to rise to the top job.

robinph

Just saw a comment about the potential October 14th date for an election being a problem for the Jewish community as it's a festival of something day and they are not permitted to write (amongst other things) on that day and that getting postal votes sorted in time might be a problem for people.

Just filled in our postal vote forms now as have the potential for needing to be away at short notice around any upcoming dates for elections.

darem93

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That lib dem constituency in Northern Scotland is sort of astonishing. Wasn’t aware of them having much traction in Scotland. Would have thought the further north in Scotland you went the bigger the SNP support you’d have

Yeah Orkney and Shetland vote for the Lib Dems religiously. I think there was a previous MP there who was very popular and they've voted Lib Dem since. It also happens to be one of the most anti-independence constituencies too, which I still don't really understand.

L1011

robinph wrote: »

Just saw a comment about the potential October 14th date for an election being a problem for the Jewish community as it's a festival of something day and they are not permitted to write (amongst other things) on that day and that getting postal votes sorted in time might be a problem for people.

Just filled in our postal vote forms now as have the potential for needing to be away at short notice around any upcoming dates for elections.

Google tells me its the start of a festival called Sukkot and the first day of it has to be treated like another Sabbath by those who obey those rules. It'd be slightly humorous if it was a Labour MP who pointed that out to Boris after the anti-semitism allegations.

trellheim

Commons begins at 1430 so thats when Bercow probably gets to his oxters and announces the S024 debate is a goer or not. Everyone welcome to tune into the party , live TV here

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Commons

An Ciarraioch

darem93 wrote: »

Yeah Orkney and Shetland vote for the Lib Dems religiously. I think there was a previous MP there who was very popular and they've voted Lib Dem since. It also happens to be one of the most anti-independence constituencies too, which I still don't really understand.

Jo Grimond, who was actually the Liberal leader during the Fifties and Sixties - indeed the party has held the seat since 1950!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orkney_and_Shetland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Stop moaning ffs

The sniping at FG from FF ranks has been on the increase but this is a full shot. I’m thinking FF are going to pull the plug shortly, realizing Ireland’s and the EUs position is secure and not in any danger of any curveballs from Britain

https://twitter.com/irishtimespol/status/1168843594200842240?s=21

Dytalus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The sniping at FG from FF ranks has been on the increase but this is a full shot. I’m thinking FF are going to pull the plug shortly, realizing Ireland’s and the EUs position is secure and not in any danger of any curveballs from Britain

https://twitter.com/irishtimespol/status/1168843594200842240?s=21

They may not be throwing any curveballs, but really do we need to be running an election coming up to (and over the immediate course of) a no-deal Brexit?

I just feel like getting over the hurdle would be better to happen before any change of government.

lawred2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The sniping at FG from FF ranks has been on the increase but this is a full shot. I’m thinking FF are going to pull the plug shortly, realizing Ireland’s and the EUs position is secure and not in any danger of any curveballs from Britain

https://twitter.com/irishtimespol/status/1168843594200842240?s=21

This is pathetic party politics from FF... a leopard will never change its spots.

What exactly does Martin think the Irish Government can do here?

'Come clean'!? What sort of language is that?

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But the official assessment forecasts disruption at the Channel ports, with lorries queuing for up to two-and-a-half days to deal with new customs controls in France. It predicts that queues could stretch for more than 60 miles, blocking the M25 at the Dartford Crossing, ‘which would disrupt fuel supply in London and the South East’.

As I said before, unless something fundamental changes, those queues keep getting longer and longer. Fundamental would be exporters stopping exports until the queue is manageable again or using different routes. There would be capacity for LoLo shipments in other ports and some ferry capacity; although we know that they haven't been able to source additional ships, but the end result could be lower volumes over all.