Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

newport2

VinLieger wrote: »

Agreed, that sturck me as being very generous to the UK side

Well he is a former UK civil servant, so probably hard for him not to be a bit biased!

That said, I've had to question myself on how squeaky clean the EU has been on this. I've kind of taken the simplistic stance that the EU is 100% right and the UK is 100% wrong on this fiasco when I'm looking at it, which realistically is never true. While I think the vast majority of blame lies with the UK, I'm sure things were a little different behind the scenes from how most people - myself included - perceived them to be.

First Up

newport2 wrote: »

Well he is a former UK civil servant, so probably hard for him not to be a bit biased!

That said, I've had to question myself on how squeaky clean the EU has been on this. I've kind of taken the simplistic stance that the EU is 100% right and the UK is 100% wrong on this fiasco when I'm looking at it, which realistically is never true. While I think the vast majority of blame lies with the UK, I'm sure things were a little different behind the scenes from how most people - myself included - perceived them to be.

The recent "fly on the wall" TV programmes featuring Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstadt gave an accurate insight into how all this is viewed from Brussels.

But the essential point is that the EU is a rules based organisation and - guess what - it is playing by the rules (all of them.)

20silkcut

newport2 wrote: »

Well he is a former UK civil servant, so probably hard for him not to be a bit biased!

That said, I've had to question myself on how squeaky clean the EU has been on this. I've kind of taken the simplistic stance that the EU is 100% right and the UK is 100% wrong on this fiasco when I'm looking at it, which realistically is never true. While I think the vast majority of blame lies with the UK, I'm sure things were a little different behind the scenes from how most people - myself included - perceived them to be.

I can’t see much wrong in their direct dealings with the UK over Brexit but they uncharacteristically and very hastily signed the mercosur trade deal, overwhelming probability this was due to the brexit situation.
And already it looks like a bad decision.

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the different factions against no deal can’t get it together. Two completely different messages and different directions

No, they are the same direction. First, secure against no deal. Then, when that is squared away, election.

No election if it means Parliament is dissolved allowing Brexit to happen.

Corbyn stated this clearly in his speech yesterday:
https://labour.org.uk/press/29461/

funkey_monkey

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the different factions against no deal can’t get it together.
Two completely different messages and different directions

https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/1168868344667267074?s=21

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1168867247227637762?s=21

Corbyn explicitly says he will block a GE before October 31. However, if there is an EU extension and No Deal has been halted, then he has no problem with a GE.

Kermit.de.frog

The UK will have had more governments than Italy since 2016 if Boris has to call time today or tomorrow.

Let that sink in...

prawnsambo

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

They're usually after the debate, which is due around 6:30pm. Expected to last three hours and voting at 9:30 or 10:00.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn explicitly says he will block a GE before October 31. However, if there is an EU extension and No Deal has been halted, then he has no problem with a GE.

And the Lib Dems only have a problem with an election if it would kibosh our ability to stop a No Deal Brexit, so same message.

CelticRambler

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

Some time around/after 9pm London time.

Just looking at Sky's breakdown of the votes Johnson needs to force an election, and they are including the DUP's 10 MPs on his side, on the basis of the C&S agreement. Not sure that support can be guaranteed - while the Tories can go into the election with the hope and a plan to gain seats, the best the DUP can hope for is to hang on to what they've got.

The polls above suggest that won't be the case, but if they support Johnson's bid to win a majority, they're effectively giving up the only leverage they have in Westminster, possibly (probably) never to have that kind of influence ever again. And that's without contemplating the risk that Johnson's gamble will fail and a non-Tory government will cut NI off for the sake of "the mainland".

VinLieger

Oooof watching Sky News and Kay Burley, who I normally hate, was straight to the point with this Labour MP thats on "if you had a stronger leader you would be in power"

Stop moaning ffs

Strazdas wrote: »

Corbyn explicitly says he will block a GE before October 31. However, if there is an EU extension and No Deal has been halted, then he has no problem with a GE.

My heads swimming trying to keep up with what Jeremy says at this stage.
I’d say we’re in for a breakneck speed series of events this evening.

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

My heads swimming trying to keep up with what Jeremy says at this stage.
I’d say we’re in for a breakneck speed series of events this evening.

I'd agree and i don't think he's up to keeping up with any of it.

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

I'd agree and i don't think he's up to keeping up with any of it.

Whatever way it shakes out it’s likely we’re going to witness the end of the DUPs holding the reigns.
I’d settle for that no matter the outcome.

An Ciarraioch

Peter Foster has just finished an excellent thread contrasting Irish and British perspectives on the Border:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1168877012909510656

ArmaniJeanss

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Is there to be a vote today and what time is it to be at?

The Guardian Live is always handy for a 'what happens in the next few hours' timetable, although events can often overtake it.

Guardian wrote:

2.30pm: Dominic Raab takes Foreign Office questions.

3.30pm: Boris Johnson gives a statement on the G7. Commons statements normally run for about an hour, but John Bercow, the Speaker, likes to call all MPs who want to ask a question, and he regularly lets questions to the PM run for two hours or more. But assuming they wrap up after two hours, that takes us to …

5.30pm?: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gives a statement on no-deal Brexit preparations.

6.30pm?: Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, gives a statement on education funding.

7.30pm?: Chris Philp moves a motion under the 10-minute rule for a bill on clean air. (Although called a 10-minute rule bill, the debate can last up to 20 minute, although normally these speeches last about five minutes.)

7.35pm?: Sir Oliver Letwin submits a request for an SO24 (standing order 24) emergency debate on a no-deal Brexit. After a very short speech, Bercow will either allow or disallow the debate. No one expects him to say no.

7.40pm?: MPs begin the debate on the SO24 motion. It can run for up to three hours, or until 10pm - whichever comes first.

10pm?: MPs vote on the motion.

robinph

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The Guardian Live is always handy for a 'what happens in the next few hours' timetable, although events can often overtake it.

So if Johnson can drag out his Q&A session for long enough the other business of the day will mean they are out of time to get the SO24 item dealt with before 10pm.

Have to assume that Bercow will keep things under control and moving along nicely.

BarryD2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

My heads swimming trying to keep up with what Jeremy says at this stage.
I’d say we’re in for a breakneck speed series of events this evening.

Well not exactly signs of an united front opposing Boris. He could run rings around them yet.

Things also bleak for Stormont, little likelihood of much happening there until Brexit is sorted one way or another. So more direct rule setting in.

Did you hear earlier about the directive requiring GB stickers on all UK cars travelling outside UK, inc those of NI? Maybe the parties up there will finally realise that pulling the plug a couple of years wasn't the greatest idea..

Water John

SO24 could also happen after Gove's speech I think.

Stop moaning ffs

Just in time. Pitching my hopes on the rebel alliance

https://twitter.com/danielhewittitv/status/1168855169750188034?s=21

Igotadose

BarryD2 wrote: »

Things also bleak for Stormont, little likelihood of much happening there until Brexit is sorted one way or another. So more direct rule setting in.

If Stormont doesn't re-convene, doesn't that mean the legislation due to go into effect in a few weeks will in fact go into effect? Decriminalize abortion in NI finally?

Direct rule is bad, but decriminalizing abortion is a big win for NI.

Water John

Cummings and Johnson are taking on some conservative heavyweights. That rump has the ability to run Govn't on its own.

Rjd2

Water John wrote: »

With FPTP, one really has to analyse each constituency simply keeping the national trend in the back of your head.
Trying to get how many seats each of the parties get from a national poll alone would have a major, margin of error IWT.

BTW wouldn't see Corbyn stepping aside, unless someone with similar views to himself was made PM. IWT his convictions are more important to him, than his ego. Despite the majority of the media being against him, he is a good campaigner in a GE.

Who knows?

Corbyn for all his flaws is a fine campaigner and I could understand his annoyance if Labour do well at been asked to step aside.

If Brexit was not an issue, I actually think Swinson would rather go into power with Boris if he was channeling his one nation esque toryism, but alas Brexit.

Depends on the numbers really.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

Cummings and Johnson are taking on some conservative heavyweights. That rump has the ability to run Govn't on its own.

Dominic Grieve being one of them. A very clever man with huge experience of the law. This little snippet gives an idea of what he's like.

Water John

Hammond has already been selected by his constituency, last night, keep up.

VinLieger

Mike Pence asking Leo and the EU to negotiate in "Good Faith" with Boris Johnson.......

https://www.thejournal.ie/mike-pence-varadkar-4793734-Sep2019/

Nody

20silkcut wrote: »

I can’t see much wrong in their direct dealings with the UK over Brexit but they uncharacteristically and very hastily signed the mercosur trade deal, overwhelming probability this was due to the brexit situation.
And already it looks like a bad decision.

More likely it's due to Trump and his anti FTA approach; same with the Japan deal etc.

robinph

Limpy wrote: »

Hammond was always a remainer. Nothing new there. Hopefully he gets the boot and a GE is called.

Hammonds local Conservative association re-approved him to stand for them in the next election yesterday, and said to Johnson to bring it on if he wanted to try and remove him as their candidate.

54and56

12 page leaked UK Govt document dated last week highlighting the inadequacies of the "Alternative Arrangements" - https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/AA-N-Ireland-doc-lobby.pdf

VinLieger

robinph wrote: »

Hammonds local Conservative association re-approved him to stand for them in the next election yesterday, and said to Johnson to bring it on if he wanted to try and remove him as their candidate.

Interesting to see a local conservative association fighting back in that way, any stuff ive heard about the grassroots of the party is its been taken over by no deal hard brexiteers