Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

Well what do you think yourself ?

Like it or not all that cheese, wine, and beef imports go up on supermarket shelves

Tell me how

mrbrianj wrote: »

Sorry to put this in a question format, Does anybody think the the media war being waged by (mostly) UK mainstream media and Brexiteer campaigners is going to do long term damage to trade in goods between both camps?

The rhetoric cant be of any benefit for targeting consumers. Regardless of regulations - British cars and Airbus wings as noted above - does this hard push turn people off British products?

I imagine that EU products will take a hit in the UK market, to pro brexit customers anyway.

All the talk of EU bullies, The Murphys, arrogant leaders, and such like has to dent the willingness of consumers across the EU to pick out British products. The only option UK manufactures may have is move from a quality product to a low cost option. Will animosity to UK products be collateral damage to the UK's internal brexit battle?

I think that the number of people who actually make a decision on a product based by a statement in the media is likely to be very small and so while there are probably people somewhere who actually will make a point, it's insignificant in the greater scheme of things.

Look at the furore over some products in the USA such as Nike (Colin Kapernick shirt) and Gillette. Their stories were accompanied with videos on social media of people burning the products but ultimately, even the social media uproar didn't really have a overly negative effect on revenue. Actually did well for Nike.

trellheim

Couple of things

1. INIS a Department of Justice agency, handle most immigration matters at Dublin Airport T1 and T2 now, AGS dont do frontline in Dublin Airport any more.

2. The CTA is a memorandum of understanding. It was renewed by our and Mays Government in May2019 - here it is https://www.dfa.ie/media/dfa/eu/brexit/brexitandyou/Memorandum-of-Understanding-Ire-version.pdf


https://www.dfa.ie/brexit/getting-ireland-brexit-ready/brexit-and-you/common-travel-area/

It predates the EU. Unless Priti Patel has threatened to rip it up - and she can - then it will continue, as it is not affected by Brexit directly.

black forest

There seems to be a US/ UK deal in the making...


https://twitter.com/lanceforman/status/1162257494787256326?s=21

...with a little caveat behind.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1163477159308070912.html


So the probability of some kind of an immediate agreement is just wishful thinking. As Pelosi already said it’ll be stopped should the GFA be damaged in any way. Whatever Trump and Johnson want to have it will be down a long road. Just words and a nice shake hands for the press.

trellheim

Oh for heavens sake.


Well done Faisal for finding this

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1163504244655316993

. interesting reference on that above to “agriculture has sufficient calorific content to feed the population, albeit with a restricted diet and a dramatic reduction in livestock production to enable all crop production to be used as human food” - that is not Brexit specific /2b

fk sake someone is writing that for real , that's subsistence agriculture in a post-war desolation type levels of problems

What levels of written words will actually say to brexiteers "lads theres a problem here and perhaps we should deal with it"

Capt'n Midnight

brickster69 wrote: »

Tell them to cancel it if they want. Set up a new factory, employ and train new staff and everything should be ok in 5 years. Meanwhile there will be a bit of a jam at the assembly plants for planes awaiting some wings to arrive.

What will happen is they keep production going for this model.

But they might not re-invest in the UK factory for the upgrades needed for the next model, preferring to to run the factory into the ground and sweating the assets.

Then in 5 years time the UK factory won't win the internal competition to build the next model and they could walk away.

This is exactly what's already happening to UK car factories.


Yes Aircraft are higher tech, and UK workers will cost less due how much they have lost with the fall in sterling. But when production of the A380 ends Airbus will need to take a decision about keeping that production line open.


From 20th of May 2015

The head of Airbus in the UK has warned that the defence and aircraft company would reconsider its investment in the country in the event of Britain leaving the EU, saying such a move would be destructive with “enormous ramifications” for the UK’s long-term future.

Aircraft parts are zero tariff so free movement may be the bigger issue

jimmycrackcorm

brickster69 wrote: »

Pretty sure every other country in the world that has access to EU markets overcome those easily enough.

Such as the US exporting chlorinated chicken and hormone filled beef to the EU?

jimmycrackcorm

brickster69 wrote: »

Good point. Every company in the world has to make good that conform to the market they are sending goods to. That is globally not just the EU.

The onus is on the importer that the goods conform to those standards, if they don't they send them back.

Take Airbus for example. Airbus UK make wings for Airbus planes, do you think they will suddenly start making wings that do not conform to EU standards. Considering Airbus have a five year order backlog it would halt production of all Airbus planes. Late completion penalties which those contracts would have would bankrupt them in a year.

Do you think UK carmakers will not make cars that do not conform to EU standards and likewise EU companies will make cars that do not conform to UK standards.

Your argument is that the UK will have to be an EU rule taker regardless and with no say in madding those rules.

brickster69

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Yes Aircraft are higher tech, and UK workers will cost less due how much they have lost with the fall in sterling. But when production of the A380 ends Airbus will need to take a decision about keeping that production line open.


From 20th of May 2015

Here is one from the CEO from a couple of months ago

https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/

brickster69

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Your argument is that the UK will have to be an EU rule taker regardless and with no say in madding those rules.

Of course, the UK will not be a part of the EU. So as is the case for all countries they will have to abide by EU standards if they want to export to that market. Same with all countries wanting to export to the UK. That's how it is.

Capt'n Midnight

brickster69 wrote: »

Here is one from the CEO from a couple of months ago

https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/

Airbus distances itself from reports it has changed Brexit stance

CelticRambler

brickster69 wrote: »

Here is one from the CEO from a couple of months ago

https://www.euractiv.com/section/aviation/news/airbus-now-wants-to-remain-in-uk-regardless-of-brexit-outcome/

From that article:

But the company also wants to reposition itself worldwide.

Airbus, seen as the poster child of industrial integration in creating European champions, also wants to be “more Asian” to be closer to its fastest-growing markets.

Hmmmm ... I suppose if India is demanding (a lot) more visas in exchange for a trade deal, then Britain might well become more Asian, and Airbus could achieve that aim by staying put.

Somehow, I don't think that's what they have in mind. :P

For Forks Sake

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

In reality it would likely be the exact opposite. Northern Ireland would both be in the UK and the single market. It would see loads of companies setting up there to take advantage of that. It would probably be the best thing to happen to the Northern Ireland economy.

Agreed, this (how is that only 18 months ago - seems like half a lifetime?) was my exact take when the DUP flatly refused the original offer

With respect, that's nonsense.

They had a chance with the offer on the table today to improve the lot of all in NI.
Bearing in mind that the place is reliant on Westminster handouts, the deal as reported could have been a once in a lifetime opportunity to diversify and improve the economy there - Belfast could have been a hub for business currently based in other parts of the UK who would like to maintain a base that allowed them access to the EU without the need for wholesale upheaval (moving to other parts of Europe post Brexit). Because they way things are progressing, the handouts will be in very short supply post Brexit.

There was an opportunity - for once - to do something that could have potentially improved the lives of all in NI - and they blew it.

But no, the DUP maintained the only consistant word in their vocabulary. NO.

Enzokk

Seems there was a phone call between Johnson and Varadkar, and nothing happened as there was a stalemate over the backstop.

https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1163512598131818496?s=20

I can imagine a call for an hour like the discussions we have had on here. Both sides stating their positions and if they are entrenched, then there will be a stalemate. I still don't understand the plan from Johnson here. I get he wants a election to get a majority, but the risks with this is so substantial it doesn't make any sense to me. If he gets his majority it only entrenches his position on no-deal. Or he could lose and be the shortest tenured PM in recent memory, so what is the upshot for him?

johnnyskeleton

mrbrianj wrote: »

Sorry to put this in a question format, Does anybody think the the media war being waged by (mostly) UK mainstream media and Brexiteer campaigners is going to do long term damage to trade in goods between both camps?

The rhetoric cant be of any benefit for targeting consumers. Regardless of regulations - British cars and Airbus wings as noted above - does this hard push turn people off British products?

I imagine that EU products will take a hit in the UK market, to pro brexit customers anyway.

All the talk of EU bullies, The Murphys, arrogant leaders, and such like has to dent the willingness of consumers across the EU to pick out British products. The only option UK manufactures may have is move from a quality product to a low cost option. Will animosity to UK products be collateral damage to the UK's internal brexit battle?

Probably not more damage than the no deal itself, but two areas it really affects them is in investment and diplomacy.

In terms of investment, Western investors want to invest somewhere politically stable. Would you trust them with your money? As regards Russian, Saudi or Chinese investment, they want to put there money somewhere safe. When you hear all the talk about proroguing parliament etc, you might be reminded of your domestic tyrant from whom you are hiding your money.

In terms of diplomacy, we have seen the UK humiliated internationally over Chagos Islands and Iran, and their response to Hong Kong has been lacklustre. The leaks from ambassadors ans their talk about repealing the Human Rights Act put them on the same diplomatic footing as Russia - to be respected, but not to be trusted.

Quin_Dub

brickster69 wrote: »

Let me repeat. If you want to export internationally to any country you have to provide goods according to it's regulations. If they are higher or lower than the EU it makes no difference at all.

Same with every EU country that wants to export globally.They have to produce goods that conforms to it's market. That can be higher or lower than EU standards.

Every business on the planet understand this, regardless if they are in the EU or not.

You are of course correct - And every single one of the "Certificates of Conformity" (or whatever they might be called) that UK produced goods currently ship all around the world with are provided and certified by the EU.

In the event of a No-Deal Brexit every single one of them becomes null and void on the 31st of October.

The fact that they are still the same products that they are shipping today is irrelevant . If they don't have the correct valid paperwork , they can't clear customs.

So the UK will have to set up certification labs (they may or may not already have them , they could be using ones in other EU jurisdictions today) and get them approved by all the other countries - That might in effect just be a rubber-stamp exercise but it's still a process that has to be completed.

They will then have to re-certify every single product with this new "British Standard" , which despite the use of the that term has not existed in regulatory terms for a long time and get each and every country, supplier & purchaser to accept those new certs.

It's a fair argument to say that that's all just boiler plate paperwork and all the products will pass with flying colours, but it will take more than a little time to get through it all.. All while UK products are going nowhere

VinLieger

brickster69 wrote: »

Of course, the UK will not be a part of the EU. So as is the case for all countries they will have to abide by EU standards if they want to export to that market. Same with all countries wanting to export to the UK. That's how it is.

And pray tell exactly which markets out there will the UK be the one dictating terms to?

amacca

Enzokk wrote: »

I still don't understand the plan from Johnson here. I get he wants a election to get a majority, but the risks with this is so substantial it doesn't make any sense to me. If he gets his majority it only entrenches his position on no-deal. Or he could lose and be the shortest tenured PM in recent memory, so what is the upshot for him?

I think he reckoned this was his best shot at becoming PM so he felt like he had to take it now regardless of risks as he might never get another chance especially as he decided to back the brexit horse

I'm not sure an election is the only thing he wants for the reason you have outlined I think what he's hoping to get out of all of this is to deliberately provoke and stir up remain so that they can block the possibility of exit with no deal....then he can eat his cake and have it too.. ... and then election + continue on as PM of UK that leaves with a slightly tweaked face saving deal (which is essentially the same as WA) thus retaining lions share of brexit voters spinning the deal as best brexit possible - well spin for brexiters anyway as WA probably is best brexit possible

Trouble is Corbyn wants to eat his cake and have it too and sweep in after the torys have taken the blame for this unholy mess.

It's not great but I'd imagine Johnsons problem is he couldn't fold and had to play the hand he was dealt (or engineered for himself) ... corbyn continues to fold until he gets that flush.

briany

amacca wrote: »

I think he reckoned this was his best shot at becoming PM so he felt like he had to take it now regardless of risks as he might never get another chance especially as he decided to back the brexit horse

His best shot at becoming PM for a decent span of time was back in 2016. I mean, he probably would have still run into the same problems, but he got have at least spat out the rhetoric without too much consequence for a fair while and felt like a big man. It's funny that he seemed to think the job was a little too hot to handle back then, but has decided to jump in now, while the job more of a poison chalice than ever. Probably regrets that.

brickster69

VinLieger wrote: »

And pray tell exactly which markets out there will the UK be the one dictating terms to?

The UK will have its own standards which other countries have to abide by if they want to sell goods into it's market. Just like every other country in the world does the same.

So the UK will be setting it's own standards to every country in the world which they can respect as they please. I much prefer to say setting than dictating which is not really a word businesses warm to.

johnnyskeleton

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Read interesting article in FT, unfortunately it's behind paywall, but some of the points made with facts and figures gave food for thought.

Ireland is one of the largest destinations for Uk exports, they export more here than China.

Irish consumer is a quarter wealthier than UK consumers

Irish workers are 9x more productive.

We went from 90% of our exports going to UK to 9%


to:dr they need us more than we need them

Mod note:

No trolling please. Banned

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

His best shot at becoming PM for a decent span of time was back in 2016. I mean, he probably would have still run into the same problems, but he got have at least spat out the rhetoric without too much consequence for a fair while and felt like a big man. It's funny that he seemed to think the job was a little too hot to handle back then, but has decided to jump in now, while the job more of a poison chalice than ever. Probably regrets that.

Not sure how he felt about it in 2016, but fact is he was toast once the gover stabbed him full frontal in the chest so we'll never know how he'd have gone. If there's a plan at the moment, i've never been able to even guess at it and that's still the case, several weeks in. They still think the EU will blink at zero hour or before it, of that i'm certain. Beyond that sad delusion, i dont know what the strategy is or could be and doubt even the "big brain" of Cummings will get them out of it. Fascinating and very disturbing at the same time.

CelticRambler

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK will have its own standards which other countries have to abide by if they want to sell goods into it's market.

Or, as is far more likely, the UK will have to accept whatever standards are on offer if it wants when it needs to buy stuff from the rest of the world, seeing as the UK produces very little these days, other than those oh-so-valuable services tied to its Single Market/EU membership.

Edit, but let's run with your argument for the moment. I want to sell my weedkiller in the UK in November. Can you point me to the official description of the standards with which my product must comply? I'll be shipping it next month, so need to know by the end of this week. Oh, and can you give me the phone number of the lab that'll certify it as meeting those UK standards? Thanks.

brickster69

CelticRambler wrote: »

Or, as is far more likely, the UK will have to accept whatever standards are on offer if it wants when it needs to buy stuff from the rest of the world, seeing as the UK produces very little these days, other than those oh-so-valuable services tied to its Single Market/EU membership.

It is not the UK buying it is it's businesses that are buying goods which the government set standards that they have to abide by. I'm quite sure plenty of global nations will be more than happy to get a bit of extra trade on it's books. Even if they are not dictating terms to the buyer.

brickster69

CelticRambler wrote: »

I want to sell my weedkiller in the UK in November. Can you point me to the official description of the standards with which my product must comply? I'll be shipping it next month, so need to know by the end of this week. Oh, and can you give me the phone number of the lab that'll certify it as meeting those UK standards? Thanks.

Hi, thanks for your offer to sell us your goods. Can you please contact our buying department who will gladly keep your name on file should we wish to purchase from you.

Goodbye

Foghladh

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You are of course correct - And every single one of the "Certificates of Conformity" (or whatever they might be called) that UK produced goods currently ship all around the world with are provided and certified by the EU.

In the event of a No-Deal Brexit every single one of them becomes null and void on the 31st of October.

The fact that they are still the same products that they are shipping today is irrelevant . If they don't have the correct valid paperwork , they can't clear customs.

So the UK will have to set up certification labs (they may or may not already have them , they could be using ones in other EU jurisdictions today) and get them approved by all the other countries - That might in effect just be a rubber-stamp exercise but it's still a process that has to be completed.

They will then have to re-certify every single product with this new "British Standard" , which despite the use of the that term has not existed in regulatory terms for a long time and get each and every country, supplier & purchaser to accept those new certs.

It's a fair argument to say that that's all just boiler plate paperwork and all the products will pass with flying colours, but it will take more than a little time to get through it all.. All while UK products are going nowhere

The British Standards Institute is very much alive and well and carry out CE testing. It's not true to say that British Standards haven't existed in regulatory terms for a long time. They exist even today and, up to the point where the UK leaves the EU and new standards are adopted by either side, are fully compliant with European Standards. They were specifically aligned.

PeadarCo

brickster69 wrote: »

It is not the UK buying it is it's businesses that are buying goods which the government set standards that they have to abide by. I'm quite sure plenty of global nations will be more than happy to get a bit of extra trade on it's books. Even if they are not dictating terms to the buyer.

Which is exactly the problem. In an ideal world for businesses everyone would have the same standards as it makes the supply of a good or service cheaper. The UKs problem is that it is a very small market when compared to its next door neighbour the EU and the USA, China, India etc. There is only so much difference the UK can have in its standards when compared to the major economic powers. The bigger the difference in the UKs standards the bigger the cost of producing something different for a small market. Eventually if the differences are too big the UK won't be able to access a product or service.

So in practice the UK must align itself with the standards of the major economic powers. Standards which the UK will have no influence in setting. The discussion about chlorinated chicken is a perfect example. The UK after brexit must make a choice the EUs standards or the USs. Neither of which the UK will be able to influence directly.

brickster69

PeadarCo wrote: »

Which is exactly the problem. In an ideal world for businesses everyone would have the same standards as it makes the supply of a good or service cheaper. The UKs problem is that it is a very small market when compared to its next door neighbour the EU and the USA, China, India etc. There is only so much difference the UK can have in its standards when compared to the major economic powers. The bigger the difference in the UKs standards the bigger the cost of producing something different for a small market. Eventually if the differences are too big the UK won't be able to access a product or service.

So in practice the UK must align itself with the standards of the major economic powers. Standards which the UK will have no influence in setting. The discussion about chlorinated chicken is a perfect example. The UK after brexit must make a choice the EUs standards or the USs. Neither of which the UK will be able to influence directly.

Come on there is a lot of countries in the world who trade successfully with each other. The UK will have it's own trade policy and its own standards which they will set out in due course no doubt.

You would imagine that they would not be too different as to what they are at the moment for the immediate future. Just for continuity's sake.

PeadarCo

brickster69 wrote: »

Come on there is a lot of countries in the world who trade successfully with each other. The UK will have it's own trade policy and its own standards which they will set out in due course no doubt.

You would imagine that they would not be too different as to what they are at the moment for the immediate future. Just for continuity's sake.

The UK won't have it's own standards in practice . It will have to make choices on which standards to either directly follow the standards of the block it aligns itself with or so closely that it makes no difference(and if that economic block decides to make drastic changes the UK would be forced to do the same). Look at Ireland since independence, a lot of UK standards have been accepted more or less because it's the most practical option. The same will apply to UK Post Brexit. However the UK like Ireland in the past will have no influence over them. The UK will have standards and laws imposed by pure economics post Brexit. That's what being a small country and economy entails as Irelands economic history pre EU shows. Relative to the EU, the UK outside the block is small.

The UK will have its own trade policy. But it will be limited to which economic block it aligns itself with. By doing a trade deal with one block you may rule out a trade deal with another. The issue of chlorinated chicken is a perfect example. The UK will have to choose who's standards it wants to accept. And that is just one of countless choices the UK will be forced to make.

The biggest lie of Brexit was taking back control. The UK will lose much of the control it had as part of the EU. The UK isn't in a position to negotiate on it's own with any of the major economic powers as the entire brexit process has aptly shown.

Flex

UK Prime Minister Johnson has this evening wrote a letter to Donald Tusk

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/106014/read-full-boris-johnsons

In it he refers to the 'undemocratic backstop' as being nonviable and makes out that the backstop actually undermines and threatens the GFA. In exchange he suggests the backstop be replaced by commitments to implementing alternative arrangements.

Effectively its absolutely nothing new; 'replace the backstop with a pledge to seek alternative arrangements before the end of the transition period'. My feeling on this is that as others have mentioned here, the UK government and media is full steam ahead at its 1984 style brainwashing of the UK populace but is getting zero public reactions from the EU or EU capitals and is becoming frustrated. I believe this is an attempt to draw a public reaction that they can use to feed the propaganda machine at the moment, and as such I really hope its met with continued silence.