Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so

batgoat wrote: »

Think general election is generally viewed as an acceptable scenario for an extension.

I don't think it will be at this point and even if it were they'd get very little.

mcmoustache

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169001298164932610

What is Johnson playing at? How does this help his agenda?

Playing a blinder, supposedly. 4d chess and all that. We're just too silly to understand the genius of these outwardly stupid and chaotic actions.

sondagefaux

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Andrea leadsom talking about a deal. What deal are they talking about ?

A drugs deal? Would explain a lot.

beggars_bush

mcmoustache wrote: »

Playing a blinder, supposedly. 4d chess and all that. We're just too silly to understand the genius of these outwardly stupid and chaotic actions.

Boris is too clever for his own good.
Or he thinks he is.

holyhead

Cameron I think genuinely didn't expect the UK to vote to leave the EU. The vote was folly not because of the outcome. It was folly because the terms and conditions for exiting were not known by the UK public at the time of the vote. Having voted to leave the EU were never going to make it easy for Britain. They would merely serve to undermine the continued existence of the EU.
Johnson is trying to bulldoze his way to Brexit not caring about the collateral damage done along the way. I don't see how Brexit won't be damaging for the UK and I think the MPs know this. Hence the vote tonight. Brexit has paralysed British politics for the past few years. I think personally they should vote again at the point that the terms of leaving are known. Then it would be an informed decision.
Unionists may treasure their loyalty to the Queen and Country. I'm not sure the Country is so loyal to the N.I. loyalists. I don't think Brexiteers thought about/considered the consequences of Brexit on Ireland north or south. The standard of debate surrounding leaving up until the vote was poor and essentially amounted to scaremongering.

Limpy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169001298164932610

What is Johnson playing at? How does this help his agenda?

Good riddance if true. Bring on the election.

Akrasia

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169001298164932610

What is Johnson playing at? How does this help his agenda?

Makes him look tough I suppose... and when the election comes his party will be solidly pro no deal brexit, gets rid of the moderates who would rock the boat

Infini

gmisk wrote: »

Ok question why is Kate hoey still in labour? Is she not pretty much aligned with the DUP these days?

Think the real question is why havent Labour dumped her for being an obious troll and 5th Column, shes little more than a UKIP infiltrator.

Spanish Eyes

Headshot wrote: »

If your like me and not good with names, here's the pics of the 21 rebels

https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/711?byMember=false

A good lot are from the Home Counties. Not many from North of Watford Gap from what I can see.

Is this a sign!

Podge_irl

is_that_so wrote: »

I would be very surprised if they did grant one. The only possible circumstance might be a new HoC finally agreeing to the WA deal.

The EU (insofar as referring to it as such makes sense) have already said an election would be grounds for an extension. They have also said they would renegotiate the WA if the UK's red lines changed. They are not petulant children - if there is a viable expectation that a deal could still be brokered and agreed they will take that chance. And Parliament actually crafting what they want would pretty much guarantee its viability.

gmisk

awec wrote: »

Kate Hoey is from Northern Ireland, but her constituency is in England. Not too many DUP voters in Vauxhall.

I'm well aware of where she is from I'm from northern ireland...but why is she still with labour was my point, should she not just move to another party (brexit party probably)?

Bit cynical

Podge_irl wrote: »

I'm aware of what they've said but I still think that after parliament finally taking some action (and an election looking fairly likely) that there is almost zero chance of them not granting an extension. It would essentially look like the EU forcing the UK out over the wishes of its parliament and that is not something they will be keen on.

I would be inclined to believe this. Even if a fairly perfunctory letter is written by Boris the EU will grant an extension. There have already been unprompted noises about "abolishing" (i.e. extending) the October 31st deadline from EU national leaders.

Quin_Dub

thecretinhop wrote: »

check the suicide rate in Greece
combine that with German gdp till recent
good man...

##mod note##

Thecretinhop will be taking a break

Enzokk

mcmoustache wrote: »

Playing a blinder, supposedly. 4d chess and all that. We're just too silly to understand the genius of these outwardly stupid and chaotic actions.

It could still work out that Johnson wins a huge majority on a no-deal platform and we have to bow the to intelligence of Cummings, but he won a yes/no referendum by breaking electoral laws. The problem they have right now is that they are in an incredibly weak position and it will not get better in an election.

They still have to contend with their record for the past 9 years and I don't see austerity ending in that time.

manual_man

mcmoustache wrote: »

This was a bit of an elephant in the room tonight. Everyone already knew that there were no negotiations worth speaking of but yet the whole tory spin was that they needed the no-deal option on the table to negotiate? I get that they were playing to their brexit constituency but they surely can't think that they're that stupid? Can they?

It’s not stupidity. It’s Negotiations Strategy 101. Take away your strongest negotiating card and then it essentially hands your opponent the reigns and puts you in a position of weakness.

No doubt it’s risky. But honestly is there any other way Brexit is actually going to get done? I kind of doubt it.

I really think most of the opposition are just trying to stop Brexit altogether, they’re just too cowardly to say it. And ultimately that’s why if there’s an election the Conservatives and the Brexit Party will win big - because their mandate is clear - leave with or without a deal. Whereas Labour and Lib Dems will be a mixed mess of those saying they only want to leave with a deal (with the inevitable further delays) and others calling for a second referendum and ultimately trying to undermine the will of the people.

martingriff

thecretinhop wrote: »

check the suicide rate in Greece
combine that with German gdp till recent
good man...

Greece suicide rate was down to them going insolvent and needing a bailout and taking drastic action to get back. ALL OF THAT IS DOWN TO THE GREECE PARLIAMENT NOT THE EU. It has no correlation to the German GDP

Panrich

Guto Bebb eviscerated Johnson there on BBC News. He says that Johnson cannot be trusted and the conservative party is now only attractive to people who admire Farage and there is no home there any more for traditional conservatives.

is_that_so

Podge_irl wrote: »

The EU (insofar as referring to it as such makes sense) have already said an election would be grounds for an extension. They have also said they would renegotiate the WA if the UK's red lines changed. They are not petulant children - if there is a viable expectation that a deal could still be brokered and agreed they will take that chance. And Parliament actually crafting what they want would pretty much guarantee its viability.

As I said I can't see it giving too much and unless the seat arithmetic changes in a more positive way it'll be No Deal because the UK are not shifting on their demands.

Hodors Appletart

maitliss said Stewart has stepped down, from where though?

10000maniacs

Breaking news, Rory Stewart resigns.

Popeleo

According to Newsnight, Rory Stewart has left the bad ship Tory also.

maebee

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leadsom saying rebels will NOT lose whip tonight and will have second chance tomorrow.

Looks like it will be a closer run thing tomorrow.

I doubt it will be a closer run thing tomorrow. They voted against their leader tonight after being told they would lose the whip in doing so. They have to carry their convictions through tomorrow. If they don't, their actions tonight were meaningless.

Spanish Eyes

Infini wrote: »

Think the real question is why havent Labour dumped her for being an obious troll and 5th Column, shes little more than a UKIP infiltrator.

Well to be fair, you could ask the same about the ERG. Cannot figure that out myself either.

10000maniacs

I hope he goes to the Lib Dems.

Pablo Escobar

thecretinhop wrote: »

check the suicide rate in Greece
combine that with German gdp till recent
good man...

So you want us to add the Greek suicide rate to German GDP and that will reveal your cryptic post? Is that what you’re saying?

farmerval

Is there any chance that Boris is being ridden by Dominic Cummins? Did Cummins spot his chance to really f**K up Westminster as he always wanted to do and sees Boris as his best chance.
Boris is so desperate to be in power that he's handed over all authority to Cummins, who has ever only really wanted to cause destruction to what most people consider normal functioning Government, what if he has no interest in Boris future career has just seen a golden opportunity of harnessing the moment and Boris desperation to drive the whole lot off a cliff.
Maybe that's the game theory he's been playing.

SharpshooterTom

gmisk wrote: »

I'm well aware of where she is from I'm from northern ireland...but why is she still with labour was my point, should she not just move to another party (brexit party probably)?

Kate Hoey is not standing in the next election. She knows her career (certainly within Labour) is done.

martingriff

manual_man wrote: »

It’s not stupidity. It’s Negotiations Strategy 101. Take away your strongest negotiating card and then it essentially hands your opponent the reigns and puts you in a position of weakness.

No doubt it’s risky. But honestly is there any other way Brexit is actually going to get done? I kind of doubt it.

I really think most of the opposition are just trying to stop Brexit altogether, they’re just too cowardly to say it. And ultimately that’s why if there’s an election the Conservatives and the Brexit Party will win big - because their mandate is clear - leave with or without a deal. Whereas Labour and Lib Dems will be a mixed mess of those saying they only want to leave with a deal (with the inevitable further delays) and others calling for a second referendum and ultimately trying to undermine the will of the people.

But is not you are forgetting this is the deal just to get out of the EU. If they just have a No-Deal exit and then decide not to pay the bills they have legally signed up to pay that weakens them when they have to start to trade deals with the EU and everyone (well exept the US who have them already over a barrel). They will go how can we trust you now you will stick with a deal and they will look for harsh terms to make sure

Enzokk

10000maniacs wrote: »

I hope he goes to the Lib Dems.

Doesn't seem likely, he will not stand in the next election. I suppose he may wait for the Tories to move away from the fringes and rejoin when they have regained their senses.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1169007010790215681?s=20

PropJoe10

I'm becoming quite the fan of the voice of reason in the house, the Father of the House. Another superb speech on the current state of the Conservative Party and the Brexit situation from earlier. Not behind the couch in ripping into the right-wing populists taking over the Tories either:

https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/ff02f7f6-014a-4a8c-9ef7-bd2cd9986e53?in=20:15:28