Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

A great day for Boris Johnson. He started the day with a majority of 1 and finished with a minority of 43. He managed to do this all by himself by painting red lines around a vote. They never learn.

He had to prove that he was willing to expell 21 MPs from his party so that those MPs would believe that he was willing to expell them and as such they would be willing to come to a reasonable compromise with him that respected his red lines.

This is how negiotation works, and it never fails...

cryptocurrency

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Wish someone videoed this :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pms-guru-dominic-cummings-goads-19400954.amp


"The oddball strategist had previously been seen conspicuously prowling the corridors of the Commons press gallery, clutching a glass of red wine."

They're losing it

You can't possibly believe that.

Cummmings expected the loss and have hinted at the election play all week. Labour either take it and lose or get their extension till january and then lose. Either way parliament vs the people is set up and outside the shouty folk on westminster green the vast majority if seats are leave. The deal is remains best hope and boris will not bring it back so it will not see the light of day without remain winning an almost impossible election.

Capt'n Midnight

Podge_irl wrote: »

Yes, voters elect people not parties. As of now they are not Conservative MPs however.

Here with multi-seaters and transferable votes, voters can usually vote for a different lizard from the same party after lodging a protest vote for the local hospital candidate.


In the UK most seats are safe so voting in them is generally a formality.

In the others it's usually the party who decides who stands and the voter who doesn't vote for the winner or runner up might as well have stayed at home.

gmisk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

He had to prove that he was willing to expell 21 MPs from his party so that those MPs would believe that he was willing to expell them and as such they would be willing to come to a reasonable compromise with him that respected his red lines.

This is how negiotation works, and it never fails...

But it already has....they voted against the whip and they are being expelled?
Or am I missing something?

prawnsambo

gmisk wrote: »

Honest and has convictions...he doesn't really fit in with the conservative party tbh then...but I agree...hopefully he comes back to politics

Hold the eulogies. It was joke he made at an awards ceremony tonight. He will not be standing down as an MP.

Imreoir2

gmisk wrote: »

But it already has....they voted against the whip and they are being expelled?
Or am I missing something?

It was scarcasm, just like the argument that no-deal must be kept on the table so you can get a deal, you must expell your MPs so you dont have to expell your MPs ,or some such logic.

gmisk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here with multi-seaters and transferable votes, voters can usually vote for a different lizard from the same party after lodging a protest vote for the local hospital candidate.


In the UK most seats are safe so voting in them is generally a formality.

In the others it's usually the party who decides who stands and the voter who doesn't vote for the winner or runner up might as well have stayed at home.

I wouldn't be so sure about most seats being safe......I think in Scotland the conservatives will take an absolute hammering especially with Davidson stepping down.

Spanish Eyes

Shelga wrote: »

Paddy Power's odds on a no-deal Brexit in 2019 have lengthened considerably in the last couple of hours, from 11/10 to 15/8.

Can you explain. I haven't a clue about gambling on anything.

Shelga

Will the EU grant an extension just because Parliament ask for one, if it is not specifically tied to a GE?

gmisk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It was scarcasm, just like the argument that no-deal must be kept on the table so you can get a deal, you must expell your MPs so you dont have to expell your MPs ,or some such logic.

Ah my bad hard to get the tone of some posts on here

cryptocurrency

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here with multi-seaters and transferable votes, voters can usually vote for a different lizard from the same party after lodging a protest vote for the local hospital candidate.


In the UK most seats are safe so voting in them is generally a formality.

In the others it's usually the party who decides who stands and the voter who doesn't vote for the winner or runner up might as well have stayed at home.

Was safe. Labour heartlands are so far removed from the London labour seats its not funny. Corbyn threatening the removal of the whip may well lose huge numbers of northern seats. They are circulating the 21 tories who voted with Corbyn and I'm sure Farage is going to be rolling out hard in the strong leave labour seats at what they MPs has done.

Shelga

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can you explain. I haven't a clue about gambling on anything.

A few hours ago, if you bet €10 on a no-deal Brexit, you'd get €11 back if it happened. Ie no deal extremely likely.

Now, if you bet €8 on a no deal and it happen, you get €15 back. The bookies think it is less likely now, after the vote tonight.

sabat

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Wish someone videoed this :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pms-guru-dominic-cummings-goads-19400954.amp


"The oddball strategist had previously been seen conspicuously prowling the corridors of the Commons press gallery, clutching a glass of red wine."

They're losing it

Read his website https://dominiccummings.com/ - the man is cuckoo bananas. In that lengthy most recent entry he says that there is an "urgent" need to establish a base on the moon. The bulk of his musings, hidden amongst reams of rambling management jargon, are about pre-selecting the most intelligent people and training them to run the world. Basically his main influence seems to be Hugo Drax from Moonraker...

gmisk

prawnsambo wrote: »

Hold the eulogies. It was joke he made at an awards ceremony tonight. He will not be standing down as an MP.

Ah good to hear.
But he still broke the whip didn't he so out of conservative party? Lib Dems might be a good fit...

cryptocurrency

Shelga wrote: »

Will the EU grant an extension just because Parliament ask for one, if it is not specifically tied to a GE?

Of course the EU will. The UK leaving is their worst nightmare. All this talk of transition and irish solidarity is a shame. It's all about "the level playing field" which they know without the UK will make utter mince meat of them on global trade.

prawnsambo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can you explain. I haven't a clue about gambling on anything.

Well it's an expression of a chance of something. 10/1 is ten to one odds. One chance in ten of it happening. 11/5 is five chances in eleven or close enough to 1 chance in 2.

Imreoir2

Shelga wrote: »

Will the EU grant an extension just because Parliament ask for one, if it is not specifically tied to a GE?

Most likely, there is little enough reason to force the UKs hand while they are already in a state of near collapse. It would do nothing for the EU to create a credible perception, in the UK but also in member states and in the wider world, that no-deal is the EUs fault. Let the crisis in the UK come to a head by itself, the EU will hold the whip whenever the UK gets its act together enough to come to a decision.

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

A great day for Boris Johnson. He started the day with a majority of 1 and finished with a minority of 43. He managed to do this all by himself by painting red lines around a vote. They never learn.

Human Stupidity is the cancer of this existence after all.

Let's face it they kicked out people who voted on principal and because they have legitimate concerns including longstanding members. We also saw another MP defect to the Liberal Dem's ironically BECAUSE of Moggles little tantrum on LBC. I'd be honest though, how many of the remaining conservative MP's are there who actually are willing to continue to support this failure of a goverment because Boris and those who voted him in are little more than Pseudo-UKIP who hijacked the party at this point. It would be hillarious if kicking out those MP's leads to even more MP's reducing Boris's party to not even 150 MP's.

cryptocurrency

gmisk wrote: »

Ah good to hear.
But he still broke the whip didn't he so out of conservative party? Lib Dems might be a good fit...

He always was one. The Tories are moving to their natural position as more a dynamic free market party.

Panrich

Water John wrote: »

Cummings and his ilk are seeing the Tories being up in the polls areund 35% and also view the 12% Brexit voters as theirs to take, giving them 47%.

However they loose 11/12 in Scotland alone, some more in SW England to the Lib Dems.

I think this tactical disaster will affect how Johnson is perceived and will damage him electorally. The opposition and even his own erstwhile colleagues are pushing the untrustworthy line very strongly.

His missteps show rank bad judgement and a ‘strong’ leadership style is tenable while you’re winning but looks like petulance when you’re firing the likes of Kenneth Clarke in a fit of pique.

Spanish Eyes

gmisk wrote: »

Ah good to hear.
But he still broke the whip didn't he so out of conservative party? Lib Dems might be a good fit...

Does that mean another loss to the Tory majority now or what. Hard to keep up with all this now.

Imreoir2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

He always was one. The Tories are moving to their natural position as more a dynamic free market party.

Free market party? By choosing to leave every free trade agreement they are part of and erect WTO tarrifs with the vast majority of the world including its most important trade partners?

Are you feeling well?

BorneTobyWilde

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Wish someone videoed this :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pms-guru-dominic-cummings-goads-19400954.amp


"The oddball strategist had previously been seen conspicuously prowling the corridors of the Commons press gallery, clutching a glass of red wine."

They're losing it

He's like a drunk homeless man who just wandered in off the street.

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Does that mean another loss to the Tory majority now or what. Hard to keep up with all this now.

The opposition has a majority of 43 tonight.

Teresa May leaving Parliament tonight.


I'd say she's loving this.

Popeleo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Does that mean another loss to the Tory majority now or what. Hard to keep up with all this now.

He is still one of the 21 rebels, so he will lose the whip anyway.

But good to hear that he hasn't quit politics. Not too many younger tories that seem to have a conscience.

cryptocurrency

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Free market party? By choosing to leave every free trade agreement they are part of and erect WTO tarrifs with the vast majority of the world including its most important trade partners?

Are you feeling well?

People oversell that but in reality the EU goes on about its size but is largely pretty inefficient and unsuccessful in modern global terms. UK is easy its most dynamic member and its leaving.

I found Mike Pence comments tonight interesting as despite all the fawning over him he still urged the EU to negotiate honestly with the UK. Washington has a view on the withdrawal agreement and its not positive.

Water John

Someone here doesn't understand what being a 'conservative' means.

FrKurtFahrt

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

He's like a drunk homeless man who just wandered in off the street.

Yes, but who are the two on the right?

cryptocurrency

Water John wrote: »

Someone here doesn't understand what being a 'conservative' means.

Most conservatives now idolise Thatcher, Adam Smith, Milton Friedman and the like.

Rory Stewart was always more of a Major/Blairite type