Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Infini

Bambi wrote: »

Was hearing a rumour that SF are agreeing an arrangement with alliance to target certain DUP seats if there's an election

Would be nice to get some veracity as to the truth of it BUT it's also a valid tactic if it is. The DUP are wide open on Brexit and their stupidy is out there for anyone to tear into them but people in those area's are very unlikely to vote for SF or SDLP. If they want to dislodge the DUP they need to have it as a strait up contest between the DUP candidate and Alliance and avoid splitting the vote.

bilston wrote: »

I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

To be fair they wouldn't be doing a deal as basically a mutual understanding to give people a simple choice between a candidate for a waster organsition and one that wishes to be the voice of reason. If anything this just gives a straitr up choice between Dumbass Unionist candidate and a legitimate unionist candidate.

Lucy8080

Infini wrote: »

It's still not a guaranteed strategy though, the opposition and expecially those in Labour and the Lib Dem's will look to try and maximise the anti brexit vote as much as possible, they'll likely need to adopt a strategy similar to the by election in Wales by not running candidates that split the vote, their only chance at winning is to make sure both Lib Dem's and Labour outnumber the pseudo UKIP group at this point. Scotland is all but nearly guaranteed to be SNP country thanks to all this. Ultimately comes down to the numbers on the day.

True. But, they now have a real fighting chance of staying in power compared to their chances under May.

Imreoir2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is a lot of comments by people who don't have much of an idea about the UK.

Scotland is nowhere near independence.

It depends, but if you are correct in your opinion and Borris wins a majority and takes the UK out of the EU then it is impossible to see how Scotland stays in the UK.

bobmalooka

Lucy8080 wrote: »

The Tories are back in the game in regards to the next G.E. They have a single issue ticket to bring to all those Brexit voters. Boris " I want a good deal but will settle for no deal if the E.U. try to dictate to old Blighty" Vs. the opposition.

A few months ago the Tories were dead in the polls. They are rolling the dice,and I can't see Farrage standing in their way when the alternative is Corbyn and the Lib Dems.

It's the U.k.s version "make america great again". No in depth detail needed for the brexit believers . Boris is now there only man.

Farage absolutely would stand in the way - brexit end game makes him redundant. He needs to strike a balance between being relevant and getting what he says he wants.

Farage has publicly been angling for a pact, I suspect to use as a stick to whack the tories if they delay, revoke or passed a deal.
Brexit party is the elephant in the room and Johnson needed to take them out. I think whatever strategy he was trying to pull off was influenced by trying to eliminate them.

Now that Johnson and Cummings have snookered themselves my concern is that they may see a pact with Farage as the only option to keep in the game - and hope to neutralize brexit party later.

So while tonight was a good moment for sensibility, the stakes have gone higher again, it’ll take even more dangerous maneuvers for the leavers to succeed - and the players haven’t been shy of risk to date.

Even more madness to come I think

cryptocurrency

bilston wrote: »

I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

More fantasy from the position of the south. This will more likely strike fear into the mlore open and moderate unionists that dilution of the unionists position will not help them and see them retreat back to the usual parties.

PropJoe10

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is a lot of comments by people who don't have much of an idea about the UK.

Scotland is nowhere near independence.

I have relatives in Scotland and have visited there often. I might know more about it than you seem to think.

bilston

Shelga wrote: »

So the Tory (Cummings) plan is:

- have a GE before October 31st (most likely after parliament has forced through legislation stopping no deal)
-have a purge of current MPs and only run ultra hardline Brexiters in the election
- Enter a pact with the Brexit Party- Nigel Farage promises not to run alongside the Tories.
-Get a majority in the HoC and leave without a deal ASAP.

Sad thing is, I think this has a medium to strong chance of succeeding.

The UK electoral system could throw up the bizarre scenario where 55% of the electorate vote for Remain supporting parties (or at the very least anti No Deal parties) and yet we end up with a Tory government filled with Brexiteers and a healthy majority of 30-40 seats, and therefore able to force through a no deal if necessary.

Although the counter argument to that, is that a clear Tory majority might make a deal more likely as a NI only backstop might get through the Commons.

maebee

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The cats on the street knew this would happen today. Don't you follow this?

They even mentioned the calling of an election last week when this happened and it happened. Corbyn bodyswerve the election and kicks the date to January. The people vs Parliament is set and boris and cummings have set their stage.

This has been well documented.

Can you please answer my question "What do you mean when you said it's happening"
What exactly is "happening"?

Imreoir2

bilston wrote: »

I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

My thinking as well, SF voters are probably not that likely to vote for Alliance anyway, a deal with SF would make Alliance toxic to Unionists and it is among unionists that it has the greatest pull as a protest against the DUP.

Spanish Eyes

UK will be fine.

That is because it is ruled by the elites and FPTP system.

There is no way out of trying to eject anyone really.

UK version of Democracy in action I suppose. But hopefully in the event of a GE there may be some tactical voting.

It is generally for nought though at the end of the day, and the Tories know this. So what gives?

Hulk Hands

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Can you explain. I haven't a clue about gambling on anything.

The Betfair market, priced to 100% with no bookies margin, is the most accurate odds for this. Historically extremely accurate when the market has high liquidity.

Deal (or no Brexit) - 2/5 (71%)

No Deal - 5/2 (29%)

cryptocurrency

bilston wrote: »

The UK electoral system could throw up the bizarre scenario where 55% of the electorate vote for Remain supporting parties (or at the very least anti No Deal parties) and yet we end up with a Tory government filled with Brexiteers and a healthy majority of 30-40 seats, and therefore able to force through a no deal if necessary.

Although the counter argument to that, is that a clear Tory majority might make a deal more likely as a NI only backstop might get through the Commons.

With the first past the post system there is huge numbers of leave seats. Tories will win it hands down as Labour are a shambles and the Lib Dems will only pick up the fluffy head in the clouds votes of Bath and the like. Ultra head in the clouds Brighton will be the sole Green seat.

These are vocal areas and with heavy media presence but no metric for the nation at all.

Chucka and Soubry are so gonna lose their seats. Chucka might wing it, doubt it.

cryptocurrency

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Betfair market, priced to 100% with no bookies margin, is the most accurate odds for this. Historically extremely accurate when the market has high liquidity.

Deal (or no Brexit) - 2/5 (71%)

No Deal - 5/2 (29%)

Deal without backstop as we all know the backstop is to lock the UK into the level playing field which they know full well is a trap for them.

mcmoustache

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Don't be so hard on yourself. Are you really that into the EU?

Well, it brought us from something like India to something like Denmark in 30 years so yeah, I think it's pretty cool. My parents and grandparents grew up in poverty but I didn't and open markets had a lot to do with that. The EU isn't perfect and neither are banks, shops, garages, jobs or hammers but we don't stop using them just because they aren't perfect.

cryptocurrency

mcmoustache wrote: »

Well, it brought us from something like India to something like Denmark in 30 years so yeah, I think it's pretty cool. My parents and grandparents grew up in poverty but I didn't and open markets had a lot to do with that. The EU isn't perfect and neither are banks, shops, garages, jobs or hammers but we don't stop using them just because they aren't perfect.

I grew up in the UK before the EU went all superstate and also spent a lot of my youth and early career in 5 of its overseas territories.

Imreoir2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Deal without backstop as we all know the backstop is to lock the UK into the level playing field which they know full well is a trap for them.

You accuse us of not understanding the "realities" of UK politics, yet you seem not to understand the realities of EU politics. There will not be a deal without the backstop, not today, not tomorrow, not on Oct 31st and not in January either.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Now I don't want this to sound elitist or anything, but realistically few will have seen JRB live (watching it live is important) on the Commons benches snoozing away while his country's future is being debated.

Seems to me that it is a two fingured gesture from JRM to everyone else speaking and debating in the Commons. Beneath him to get involved.

But the reality is, and I am sorry to say it, the vast majority in UK (apart from activists) do not care, do not engage, and just want it all to be over.

Must be the FPTP system or something. I find people here with PR much more engaged in politics.

I saw an opinion poll which said a huge number of people who voted in the referendum had virtually no interest in politics. It explains much of the nutiness of the last three years : a disinterested and politically ignorant electorate demanding that their 'will' be implemented

Kermit.de.frog

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I grew up in the UK before the EU went all superstate and also spent a lot of my youth and early career in 5 of its overseas territories.

What version of the UK would you like to go back to?

A decade would suffice for us.

maebee

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I grew up in the UK before the EU went all superstate and also spent a lot of my youth and early career in 5 of its overseas territories.

You've ignored my question but I'll try again. What is it that "is happening"?

cryptocurrency

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What version of the UK would you like to go back to?

A decade would suffice for us.

No issue with the new member states such as poland, much welcome but I would like the club as loose as it was in the 1980s. That is enough.

cryptocurrency

maebee wrote: »

You've ignored my question but I'll try again. What is that "is happening"?

I have answered. I stated that there is nothing in tonight that was not highlighted all week and that the media is still feeding you stories and still has no idea on the public opinion.

Grandpa is toast in the election.

Lucy8080

bobmalooka wrote: »

Farage absolutely would stand in the way - brexit end game makes him redundant. He needs to strike a balance between being relevant and getting what he says he wants.

Farage has publicly been angling for a pact, I suspect to use as a stick to whack the tories if they delay, revoke or passed a deal.
Brexit party is the elephant in the room and Johnson needed to take them out. I think whatever strategy he was trying to pull off was influenced by trying to eliminate them.

Now that Johnson and Cummings have snookered themselves my concern is that they may see a pact with Farage as the only option to keep in the game - and hope to neutralize brexit party later.

So while tonight was a good moment for sensibility, the stakes have gone higher again, it’ll take even more dangerous maneuvers for the leavers to succeed - and the players haven’t been shy of risk to date.

Even more madness to come I think

For me, Farage seems to be beating the "No Deal only" drum recently. Boris is being accused by his enemies/opposition of not being interested in a deal. I think he has stolen Farages ground today. He also appeals to the moderate brexiters by asking for a mandate to try for a Deal .

Farage can scupper the Tories,but if he does he then opens the door for brexit in name only or even a peoples vote/second ref. He has a bit of head scratching to do.

But ,yeah ,definitely more madness to come-the tension is palpable watching all this unfold.

Kermit.de.frog

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No issue with the new member states such as poland, much welcome but I would like the club as loose as it was in the 1980s. That is enough.

And you think that that is more achievable with the UK outside (being kicked around forever more by the EU) and no say instead of inside with a say?

mcmoustache

maebee wrote: »

Can you please answer my question "What do you mean when you said it's happening"
What exactly is "happening"?

"It" is happening. "It" can be so loosely defined that "It" can be whatever you want it to be, yet not be pinned down enough that you can be called out on it.


"It" is more of a feeling. Like a bell going off in your tummy. That feeling you get when you see a bull going at it with a cow as you drive along the motorway, the scent of earth after the first rain in a fortnight, the laughter of a child as they catch their first butterfly.


"It"'s not something tangible - it's much more ethereal.



To ask that "It" be explained to you would be to demand that the guy put into words what "It" was, which, simply put, is too much to ask. Only a poet could perform such a feat.

Infini

cryptocurrency wrote: »

No issue with the new member states such as poland, much welcome but I would like the club as loose as it was in the 1980s. That is enough.

The truth is that time marches on though and the future is one of those dominated by Large blocks such as China and the US. The whole reason for the EU's creation was to turn it into a formidable block to push back against the likes of Trumps America (to be more accurate it was that Europe was in ruins and had the USA and USSR on either side pushing for control) that would try to bully their own way in trade agreemenets.

I mean look at this whole mess and the fact that a small country like ourselves as part of this is able to wield more power to basically not put up with the UK's political shenanigans anymore while they are basically finding out the hard way that by not being a part of this they basically get nothing and can like it.

The EU's not perfect it's like any project a work in progress it has strenghts and weaknesses that need to be dealt with but it's far better to be part of a group of like minded nations and working together on fixing problems than having to deal with the like's of Boris's or Trump's attitude and not being able to do anything about it.

cryptocurrency

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And you think that that is more achievable with the UK outside (being kicked around forever more by the EU) and no say instead of inside with a say?

You really think the EU will be kicking around the UK forever? Really?

The economic reasons for brexit in the UK will see it not kicked around by the EU. I think the US is about to give the EU the shoeing of its life on trade. That is the only kicking I see. I would try to distance myself from that if i was the UK.

maebee

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I have answered. I stated that there is nothing in tonight that was not highlighted all week and that the media is still feeding you stories and still has no idea on the public opinion.

Grandpa is toast in the election.

Sorry, I'm a bit dim. Can you please let me know what "It's happening" means?

What is happening?

What is the "it" that's happening?

cryptocurrency

Infini wrote: »

The truth is that time marches on though and the future is one of those dominated by Large blocks such as China and the US. The whole reason for the EU's creation was to turn it into a formidable block to push back against the likes of Trumps America (to be more accurate it was that Europe was in ruins and had the USA and USSR on either side pushing for control) that would try to bully their own way in trade agreemenets.

I mean look at this whole mess and the fact that a small country like ourselves as part of this is able to wield more power to basically not put up with the UK's political shenanigans anymore while they are basically finding out the hard way that by not being a part of this they basically get nothing and can like it.

The EU's not perfect it's like any project a work in progress it has strenghts and weaknesses that need to be dealt with but it's far better to be part of a group of like minded nations and working together on fixing problems than having to deal with the like's of Boris's or Trump's attitude and not being able to do anything about it.

EU is too different and a lot more left leaning. The UK would be better focused on a trade block that is more global with its Five Eyes partners which would see more politically, and culturally aligned nations stand together with a much wider global reach.

joe40

If the brexiteers feel that it is the wish of the British people to leave the EU with or without a deal, why fear another referendum?

Are they worried that people may have changed their mind?

cryptocurrency

maebee wrote: »

Sorry, I'm a bit dim. Can you please let me know what "It's happening" means?

What is happening?

What is the "it" that's happening?

It = Brexit

Rule divergence,