Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Fionn1952

cryptocurrency wrote: »

amacca wrote: »

because trade deals generally have give and take in them

when the UK tries to strike them outside of the EU, these might end up being some of the things they have to compromise on to get a deal

thats why a lot of people think brexit = retarded....give up a strong negotiating position for a weaker one

So what is the EU giving? Someone here said earlier that the EU will kick the british people forever and the UK will have to take it with no reaction. What has the EU given?

Access to the EU markets, a completely unprecedented watering down of their rules by allowing the backstop (at the British suggestion), then further compromising on their stance to allow that backstop to be expanded to include the entire UK.

The biggest issue is NO ONE knows what the British want, including their own government, apart from, 'all the benefits with none of the drawbacks', which obviously can't and won't fly.

cryptocurrency

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

cryptocurrency

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Access to the EU markets, a completely unprecedented watering down of their rules by allowing the backstop (at the British suggestion), then further compromising on their stance to allow that backstop to be expanded to include the entire UK.

The biggest issue is NO ONE knows what the British want, including their own government, apart from, 'all the benefits with none of the drawbacks', which obviously can't and won't fly.

The EU does have many drawbacks we all know that.

The public is so battle hardened the "complete watering down" will not happen as the next parliament will be voted in by a venomously anti EU public at that stage.

Beyond dangerous.

woejus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

Do you know what the public want? Did you ask every single UK voter? Or do you rely on polls? What are the polls telling us about remain/leave preferences now?

murphaph

With the current numbers the logical next step is a VonC and then a caretaker PM I would have imagined, to pull the emergency brake. The Queen would be only to happy to appoint someone other than Johnson as her next PM I'm sure, even Comrade Corbyn, given what Johnson pulled with the proroguing business. She knows he has lied to her.

If Corbyn could put his ego aside and let Ken Clarke step up to be caretaker PM (he's declared he is willing and now he will not even be a Tory!) this could all be contained, an extension sought on the basis of another referendum with leave with no deal/revoke on the ballot as these are the actual choices available and leave with no deal absolutely must be an option or this will rumble on.

declanflynn

cryptocurrency wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Baldricks, I mean Cummings cunning plan hasn't quite worked out I see. Corbyn showing smarts, ensuring that Johnson reaps what he sows.

Jumping between LBC, Talk Radio and reading UK news sources this morning has none agree with you.

Well they wouldn't

L1011

theguzman wrote: »

Agreed and their solution, throw Ireland under the bus wait and see. Murmurings of no support to come from Europe already. They will accept us as the collateral damage for whatever deal they strike with boris. I expect the RoI to be excluded from the customs union. Easier to put checks in French ports coming to and from Ireland than even bothering with the NI Border which is quiet frankly like something from the Wild West and impossible to police and secure.

Didn't happen before the last deadline. Won't happen before the next one. Fantasyland stuff that has been rabbitted here for 3 years.

The deal for Boris to decide on is the one that is already on the table with the option of varying to an NI only backstop. That's it. And it's the deal he'll be offered if he comes looking from outside too.

woohoo!!!

cryptocurrency wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Baldricks, I mean Cummings cunning plan hasn't quite worked out I see. Corbyn showing smarts, ensuring that Johnson reaps what he sows.

Jumping between LBC, Talk Radio and reading UK news sources this morning has none agree with you.

The opposition needs to take over, install a temporary PM etc. But I don't think they have the numbers. Therefore next thing is GE and ensure BP are in play to take seats off Tories, once the Benn Bill is enacted.

listermint

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

Their isnt the same appetite for hard exit that you think. After successive leaks and reports released recently the middle ground voter. Won't be swayed into smashing up their own jobs and home. It's the economy stupid. I think you've a habit of listening to polls that you like and ignoring the ones you don't.

The world has moved on to reality since 2016. The destruction of manufacturing in the UK he increase of average Spanish holiday by over 700 quid won't pay into your mantra of a landslide exit victory.


I think you might be surprised and the wait to invest in destructed assets will be a long one.

Thankfully. I love to see vultures loose money. And the Tories has a bulk of them.

Akrasia

Naggdefy wrote: »

Right. Getting the flu during the winter knocks someone out of your souped up testosterone superior group. If you say that about people with the flu I can only imagine your attitude to those with mental health problems. Churchill wouldn't even make the cut. Your tending towards extreme facism.

By the way Johnson, Rees Mogg etc are all fops. Not much testosterone on display from the Brexiteer MPs.

It’s like how A short skinny brown haired brown eyed Austrian became the supreme dictator in a movement that glorified tall blonde blue eyed Ayrians.

People who get taken in by right wing populism and the politics of fear hatred and victim hood are authoritarians who just believe anything that comes out of the mouth of their strong man politician without ever checking to see if it’s true or even makes logical sense

Stop moaning ffs

Wonder how engaged the electorate will be if a GE is called. We only ever hear the vocal ends of the extremes, the vast majority of people in the uk are beyond browned off with all of it.

Turnout could go either way no? Record highs or lows

Ps are the mods on holiday? For the love of god let’s do a voodoo rain dance and manifest them

20silkcut

theguzman wrote: »

The ordinary brit would have no time for the Parliamentarians who they see as now blocking the will of the people. Boris and Farage will drink a few pints of Ale together on the campaign trail, and tell the people you can choose these liberals or us. Jeremy Corbyn will propose something so outrageous that the Northern Labour working class will vote Tory and Brexit instead of Labour who are more concerned with virtue signalling and ignoring the referendum result than day to day stuff. Add in jingoism, patriotism, casual racism and the Tories will likely increase their vote. Hard Brexit here we come I think. Jacob Rees Mogg is actually very entertaining and witty and he add character. Expect another Trumpian victory here.

Mogg not doing himself any favors over the last few days with his petulance on LBC and stretching himself out on the bench in the commons. Really displayed a distinct sense of arrogance and boredom and disrespect to his fellow parliamentarians and the viewing public.
Unless there is some medical reason for him having to be in a horizontal position it does not reflect well on him.
In any public gathering whether it be a school classroom or public meeting for someone to adopt such an exaggerated outward posture of arrogant boredom is distracting and unacceptable. I know MPs fall asleep in the commons but there is a big difference between dozing in an upright position and stretching yourself out on the front bench with the eyes of the world watching.

Zubeneschamali

cryptocurrency wrote: »

It's all about "the level playing field" which they know without the UK will make utter mince meat of them on global trade.

It is certainly true that a level playing field will be an issue in Free Trade Agreement talks if we ever get to them - a Tory UK might be tempted to have a bonfire of workers rights, environmental regulations, safety regulations, company law and civil liberties in order to lift "red tape" and make the UK into a sort of Singapore off Europe. This would allow UK based business to slash costs and compete unfairly with EU businesses who have to cost in treating workers like actual human beings, respecting the environment and paying at least some taxes.


But of all the entities in the world to try and pull that BS on, the EU is the least likely to fall for it. The big economic blocs are the US, the EU, and China - and of the three, it is the EU that is the big one on these sorts of rules. So you can absolutely guarantee that IF the UK ever Brexits, and comes to the EU looking for a trade deal (which they will desperately need) the EU will have the whole level playing field set out in black and white before David Davis or whoever finds a pen and paper.

L1011

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

"Smoked out the remoaners" by ending up with an opposition majority of 43, possibly more to come, and very likely going out of Government with an opposition having the rest of the mandate til '22 if they want

It takes some balls to try spin this as a win.

Dymo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ps are the mods on holiday? For the love of god let’s do a voodoo rain dance and manifest them

I have a certain person on ignore but it's pointless as everybody quotes them and they're ruining the thread again.

Roger_007

One beneficial outcome of the expulsion of 21 Tory MPs from the parliamentary party, (and the defection of another one), is that the DUP have now absolutely no leverage.
Maybe now they might stop ignoring the wishes of the people of NI.

Peregrinus

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.

They didn't require much "smoking out"; they weren't exactly hiding.

As for having got rid of them, that may turn out to be not such a good idea. Apart from giving the government a "majority" of -43, their brutal treatment (in comparison with the lenience that ultra-brexiter rebels enjoyed) may alienate a lot of moderate Tory voters.

Roger_007 wrote: »

- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.

I'm afraid this is just delusional. Notoriously, the EU has offered them a deal. They've rejected it, they say they want something else, they insist that it is for them to say what the "something else" is, they reaffirm that the onus is o them to come up with the "something else"; they utterly fail to propose any "something else". Not even the most one-eyed ultra-Brexiter is going to be able to persuade himself, never mind anyone else, that this is the EU refusing to offer them a deal. It's the UK refusing to ask for one.

Roger_007 wrote: »

- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

Well, possibly. Or possibly not.

I agree that Johnson's objective was always an early election. But that wasn't because this was a particularly good option open to him; it's just because it was the least awful. Above all else, Johnson wants to be PM. But he had a deeply divided party with a majority (until yesterday) of 1. That wasn't sustainable. The only way to improve the situation was to bring about a general election, and win it. But winning it was never going to be a sure thing.

He has now succeeded in bringing about a general election, but possibly not in the circumstances he would have wished. (He would have preferred a GE just after Brexit had been implemented.) And possibly the things he has done to bring it about will further reduce his prospects of winning it.

I've already pointed to the alienation of moderate Tory voters by purging the parliamentary party of those who oppose a no-deal Brexit. But Johnson has a bigger problem.

Currently BXP is polling in the 10%-15% range. Those votes mostly come from the Tory party. If that holds up, BXP will win few or no seats, but they will cost the Tories many. UKIP won 12.5% of the vote in 2015 and won 1 seat, but cost the Tories about 50. Johnson can't win if that happens again.

So he has to neutralise BXP. (That's why he would have preferred to hold the election after Brexit.) Farage has indicated that BXP will do an election deal with the Tories if the Tories commit to no-deal Brexit.

Johnson probably is targetting a no-deal Brexit, but he has never said so; he has always posed as wanting a deal. The reason is, again, the moderate Tories who value old-fashioned virtues like fresh food, jobs, solvency and cancer medication. If Johnson targets no-deal Brexit, he will drive a lot of Tory voters to stay at home or, worse, vote Lib Dem.

The truth is that while supporters of a no-deal Brexit are passionate and noisy, they are not numerous enough to win a general election. Johnson has to lead a Tory party which has a wider appeal than that, or it will be very difficult for him to win. Which is why engineering an election that turns into a "no-deal Brexit vs every other option" could be a very bad idea.

amacca

cryptocurrency wrote: »

So what is the EU giving? Someone here said earlier that the EU will kick the british people forever and the UK will have to take it with no reaction. What has the EU given?

Access to a very large market essentially...

The UK don't seem to want it

declanflynn

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

Cummings and depaffel took a bad beating last nite old chap

prunudo

Given that Brexit fatigue and general ignorance to the facts seem to be a huge problem with British electorate I can't see an election working out well for the remain candidates.
Given what I've seen from vox pops and interviews many people want to get it done and out of the way even without realising or caring (for now) the consequences of what a no deal or hard deal means. It's a dangerous mind set so be so flippant with such important issues but plays well into those that want to leave.
And anyone who thinks that Brexit will cease to be mentioned once its happened needs to think again. Either way there'll be many more twists in the coming months.

c.p.w.g.w

Is there anyway for the EU can not grand an extension?

declanflynn

prunudo wrote: »

Given that Brexit fatigue and general ignorance to the facts seem to be a huge problem with British electorate I can't see an election working out well for the remain candidates.
Given what I've seen from vox pops and interviews many people want to get it done and out of the way even without realising or caring (for now) the consequences of what a no deal or hard deal means. It's a dangerous mind set so be so flippant with such important issues but plays well into those that want to leave.
And anyone who thinks that Brexit will cease to be mentioned once its happened needs to think again. Either way there'll be many more twists in the coming months.

About 22% of the Brits want a no deal Brexit, so Tories are finished if the go with a no deal manifesto

amacca

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU does have many drawbacks we all know that.

Everything has many drawbacks ...thats life. To me when choosing options its a question of choosing the option with the least drawbacks

The brexit option has a lot more drawbacks which are becoming clearer by the day to those who advocated for it because they liked the idea rather than because it furthered their own ends

Theres the problem as I see it. Brexit is an ideology...its seductive especially if you've been brainwashed by pop;ar opinion/media over the years...its not a winning strategy........

if it was both it wouldn't be floundering right now and would have happened.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The public is so battle hardened the "complete watering down" will not happen as the next parliament will be voted in by a venomously anti EU public at that stage.

Beyond dangerous.

Perhaps....I hope a majority are not that misguided. If it happens its an even bigger indictment of british establishment, media imo....plummy accents, oratorial skills and stiff upper lips aside.

woejus

Originally Posted by Stop moaning ffs
Ps are the mods on holiday? For the love of god let’s do a voodoo rain dance and manifest them

Dymo wrote: »

I have a certain person on ignore but it's pointless as everybody quotes them and they're ruining the thread again.

Stop moaning FFS!

It is interesting though. It's like when a load of lads on a stag get on the train, the atmosphere changes instantly.

LeinsterDub

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Is there anyway for the EU can not grand an extension?

27 ways in fact. An extension must be agreed by all members.

circadian

declanflynn wrote: »

About 22% of the Brits want a no deal Brexit, so Tories are finished if the go with a no deal manifesto

I don't think Johnstons Tories give a toss about surviving this. A hard exit is their goal, it's just a cash grab for these charlatans and any opportunity to protect their offshore funds will be taken.

Johnstons behaviour shows that he has absolutely no intention of anything other than a hard exit, regardless of the opinion of the majority of Parliament.

Roger_007

L1011 wrote: »

"Smoked out the remoaners" by ending up with an opposition majority of 43, possibly more to come, and very likely going out of Government with an opposition having the rest of the mandate til '22 if they want

It takes some balls to try spin this as a win.

Creating a situation where a GE is inevitable sooner rather than later is the main objective. This has to come about where Boris has to appear that he's been dragged kicking and screaming into having an election.
He has to appear that he's been thwarted by an unrepresentative Parliament from carrying out the wishes of the British people.
He has to appear that he, and he alone, will be the saviour of Britain from the forces of the big bad EU.
He has to paint the EU as being the enemies of Britain. He's already accusing the opposition of surrendering to the EU.
The calculation by Johnson/Cummings is that Boris would win a handsome majority by appealing to the nationalistic sentiment of the voters and be unassailable for 5 years if not more.

Zubeneschamali

declanflynn wrote: »

Cummings and depaffel took a bad beating last nite old chap

Ah, but the Cummings fanclub have convinced themselves that no matter what happens, everything is proceeding as he has foreseen.

Rebel Alliance attacking the Death Star Government's control of Parliament? All part of the plan.

No Deal ruled out? That was what Boris wanted, he just couldn't do it himself!

Election? Ha ha! Boris eats elections for breakfast!

Of course, the same people already have a narrative ready if the opposite happens - Rebel Alliance fails, Boris wins! No Deal crashout likely - that was the plan all along, Boris only pretended to want a deal! Election blocked - Ha! Ha! Boris is still PM!

7 dimensional chess, people!

The fact is that Boris is the first PM to lose his first Commons vote in over a hundred and twenty years. He is on course to be the shortest serving PM ever. His performance yesterday made Theresa May look strong and stable and Cameron look clever.

He is really bad at this Prime Ministering thing, just as he was a disastrous Foreign Secretary and a hopeless Mayor. He wasn't even a good MP, and was fired from his first journamalism job for literally making sh!t up.

If he wasn't an Eton/Oxford posh boy we would never have heard of him in any capacity, but that is the UK class system for you.

Quin_Dub

##Mod Note##

All, the standard of posting over the last 36hrs or so has been very very poor.

Cut out the memes, the name calling and the one liners

There have been a few cards and bans given out already.

It's a fast moving emotive topic, but let's stay civil and stick to the forum rules please.

Thanks

L1011

Roger_007 wrote: »

Creating a situation where a GE is inevitable sooner rather than later is the main objective. This has to come about where Boris has to appear that he's been dragged kicking and screaming into having an election.
He has to appear that he's been thwarted by an unrepresentative Parliament from carrying out the wishes of the British people.
He has to appear that he, and he alone, will be the saviour of Britain from the forces of the big bad EU.
He has to paint the EU as being the enemies of Britain. He's already accusing the opposition of surrendering to the EU.
The calculation by Johnson/Cummings is that Boris would win a handsome majority by appealing to the nationalistic sentiment of the voters and be unassailable for 5 years if not more.

And all this is playing to a subset of the population that is not guaranteed to return him to Westminster as an MP let alone as PM.

It's not a victory. The fact that Boris is being played by a shambling depiction of, well, something of a strategist who isn't even a member of his party let alone a member of Government will not go down well and he's provided plenty of ammunition to turn many against him and his party

No pact with Farage will be forthcoming whoyle Cummings is there either.