Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Dyr

bilston wrote: »

I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

All the SF need to do is stand aside and let Alliance have a run at the DUP in certain seats.

There are unionists who'll baulk at voting for anyone who do a deal with SF but you might find its less than you'd imagine

VinLieger

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

That is complete and utter bo11ox, remain MP's have been consistently saying parliament was sovereign ever since the Supreme court delivered its judgement in November 2016 that Parliament had to vote to pass article 50 to deliver notice of Brexit.

In fact it was Leave MP's who were angry at the judges for confirming parliament was sovereign and along with the right wing rags called the judges "the enemies of the people".

Btw historical revisionism only works when the truth wasn't plastered all over the front of the right wing propagandist rags.

Stop moaning ffs

Bambi wrote: »

All the SF need to do is stand aside and let Alliance have a run at the DUP in certain seats.

There are unionists who'll baulk at voting for anyone who do a deal with SF but you might find its less than you'd imagine

That poll yesterday showed DUP losing three seats to the alliance.
SF would have to publicly say they’re not going to contest the seats. That doesn’t guarantee SF voters will go alliance and it could also mobilize the DUP base who are livid with them right now but might forgive them if they were under threat of losing seats.

It’s a very risky play for all but the alliance.

Stop moaning ffs

Speaking of. DUP about to get gutted in the election. Quick. Find a positive spin asap
*the comments

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsni/status/1169124235400425474?s=21

bobmalooka

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That poll yesterday showed DUP losing three seats to the alliance.
SF would have to publicly say they’re not going to contest the seats. That doesn’t guarantee SF voters will go alliance and it could also mobilize the DUP base who are livid with them right now but might forgive them if they were under threat of losing seats.

It’s a very risky play for all but the alliance.

DUP have been chomping at any chance to make this a green/orange issue.
I think it would be very foolish to cede that ground to DUP at this stage - it’s their only route to mitigate from the damage they’ve done to themselves

RickBlaine

The BBC has a rough timetable for today's events.

It says the first vote for the bill will be at 17:00 and a second round at 19:00.

Why will there be two rounds of voting for the bill?

is_that_so

RickBlaine wrote: »

The BBC has a rough timetable for today's events.

It says the first vote for the bill will be at 17:00 and a second round at 19:00.

Why will there be two rounds of voting for the bill?

Here's the timeline of bills.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/commons/coms-commons-first-reading/

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The fact is that Boris is the first PM to lose his first Commons vote in over a hundred and twenty years. He is on course to be the shortest serving PM ever. His performance yesterday made Theresa May look strong and stable and Cameron look clever.

Is he the first PM whose first piece of legislation he proposed, is to dissolve the government? So, basically PM for a day or two, depending on whether that legislation passes? I know that it'll be much longer, as first the 'no to no deal' bill gets through HoL, but basically, all Boris'll have done, is become PM, and then leave the job through his own volition. Impressive, kind of keeps the theme of the Conservative party's goal to actually do nothing while in power.

Nody

prunudo wrote: »

Given that Brexit fatigue and general ignorance to the facts seem to be a huge problem with British electorate I can't see an election working out well for the remain candidates.
Given what I've seen from vox pops and interviews many people want to get it done and out of the way even without realising or caring (for now) the consequences of what a no deal or hard deal means. It's a dangerous mind set so be so flippant with such important issues but plays well into those that want to leave.
And anyone who thinks that Brexit will cease to be mentioned once its happened needs to think again. Either way there'll be many more twists in the coming months.

Try decades; this is by far a non exhaustive list and applies both if Brexit happens (in any form) or gets cancelled.

• Every time a trade deal is signed
• Every election stating how they protected/betrayed the people and were for/against it
• Every time a business announces they are shutting down / setting something up it will be linked to Brexit
• Ongoing sob stories about "insert person" who can't get "insert medical treatment" due to Brexit (either not eligblie for trial or medical laws stopping it)
• Upcoming finance related scandals were the state has to step in some form
• Any food standard issues such as the horse meat scandal
• Any issues with buldings or rivers etc.

In short the list is very very long of items that will be connected to Brexit one way or the other of the next couple of decades even if they may not really be connected. Brexit discussions are not going anywhere...

woejus

Nody wrote: »

Try decades; this is by far a non exhaustive list and applies both if Brexit happens (in any form) or gets cancelled.

I don't know... most people didn't know wtf the EU was prior to 2015. Brexit was a protest vote in some ways, as covered upthread. If Brexit dies, the cohort of those most aggrieved are in the majority old and beyond rioting, and on the way out themselves.

A50 revocation would be wrenching, yes, but if the Tories shook the magic money tree as promised a few weeks back, it might smooth things over until the bitterest of Brexit voters die off.

Younger voters have more on their plate (kids / jobs) to be listening to the DM telling them how to think. It might fade away quicker than any lasting effects
of implementation of Brexit will, from BRINO to no-deal free-trade fantasy land Brexit.

Igotadose

Sir Philip Lee says he switched to LibDem, because he heard JRM's conversation with the Neurologist who asked him what was an acceptable mortality rate due to Brexit and JRM behaved badly in the interview. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/eddie-mair/philip-lee-defects-after-lbc-caller/

Now that JRM's in the public spotlight, the world's getting to learn what an odious 'Dickensian Cosplayer' he is. I imagine he swayed some votes for the no-deal block bill, due to his performance last night.

Hopefully there's an election and he's gone. Maybe his constituents see the light. What a turd.

lawred2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Speaking of. DUP about to get gutted in the election. Quick. Find a positive spin asap
*the comments

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsni/status/1169124235400425474?s=21

yeah nobody buying it in those comments

awec

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

If there was widespread support for a hard brexit we wouldn't be in this situation. The situation in the house of commons is a fair reflection of society at large, a country that is split with no clear majority for any outcome, as much as it pains brexiteers to admit it.

Do you really believe that MPs are getting thousands of letters and phone calls from their constituents demanding a hard brexit, and that they're simply ignoring them? This is truly fantastical stuff.

Johnson will have to be careful. The tories learnt the hard way the last time what happens when you call an election when you think you have a stronger hand than you really do.

Patser

Rory Stewart on Sky news just there, being asked about Rees-Mogg's lounging around last night

'Yes, it is a strangely 18th century attitude to have, but then again he is a representative of the period'

First Up

Patser wrote: »

Rory Stewart on Sky news just there, being asked about Rees-Mogg's lounging around last night

'Yes, it is a strangely 18th century attitude to have, but then again he is a representative of the period'

Nice one.

trellheim

Catching up here. Any chance they will use the Parliament act to ram it through the Lords

pauldla

Sorry to interrupt the flow of the thread, just leaving this here for reference...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

seamus

He'll be defeated on his call for an election. He needs two-thirds of actual seats to approve, not just two-thirds of members present.

As pointed out on that thread though, if the Withdrawal Bill is approved, Johnson can still advise the Queen not to sign it. Which seems like a possible avenue for him, Johnson and his paymasters aren't too concerned with democratic mandates.

It might be the case that the UK parliament could be literally frozen with a PM who can't dissolve his parliament and who refuses to allow any new legislation to be signed. Does Johnson have the neck to sit it out for 58 days and let the UK leave with no deal?

murphaph

seamus wrote: »

It might be the case that the UK parliament could be literally frozen with a PM who can't dissolve his parliament and who refuses to allow any new legislation to be signed. Does Johnson have the neck to sit it out for 58 days and let the UK leave with no deal?

Labour would need to call VonC and propose government of national unity in that scenario surely.

robinph

pauldla wrote: »

Sorry to interrupt the flow of the thread, just leaving this here for reference...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

Surprising that the majority of that list all have "The" same first name, and that only stopped happening just over 100 years ago. Bit of a reminder of how recent it is for normal people to even have a vote, democracy has not been around for as long as you'd think.

trellheim

In that case Labour might agree to an early GE as it would be the only road out

or VONC 14 days to form a new Government before dissolution, so technically the rebel alliance could form a government without a GE, under the FTPA provisions

CelticRambler

Anyone know if, having taken back control, Parliament can vote to postpone the start-date of prorogation, or even instruct the Queen to revoke her decision?

Alternatively, and I know this would be a very long shot (but still ...), prior to facilitating Johnson's GE, could Parliament award themselves the power to revoke Article 50 to allow heads to cool and/or the establishment of an independent Brexit Commission, and do so before prorogation and the EU summit?

ArmaniJeanss

CelticRambler wrote: »

Anyone know if, having taken back control, Parliament can vote to postpone the start-date of prorogation, or even instruct the Queen to revoke her decision?

Without answering your question, but as an aside we should get the result of the Scottish court case on prorogation today.

Panrich

It really needs to be hammered home that a no deal does not put this issue to bed.

So many ordinary people in the UK seem to think that if they leave with a no deal then it’s all over and everyone can get back to normal and won’t have to mention Brexit or the EU ever again.

Enzokk

Labour could get back a lot of the vote they have lost to the Lib Dems if they are able to get legislation passed to avoid no-deal in law and then call for a general election. I think it is clear now that Johnson has no workable majority so an election is inevitable, but it is imperative to ensure no-deal is avoided.

Then it will be down to the manifestos and the Tories are in trouble as they will have to defend their record for the last 9 years. Brexit will play a role but as with the 2017 election it will be one of many issues for voters.

CelticRambler

Panrich wrote: »

So many ordinary people in the UK seem to think that if they leave with a no deal then it’s all over and everyone can get back to normal and won’t have to mention Brexit or the EU ever again.

I was thinking that earlier when I caught a bit of a CNN vox-pop. Even if posters such as cryptocurrency annoy us with their insistence that Britain will be great on the outside, it's way too easy for every news channel - even the French media looking for opinions amongst the ex-pat community - to find True Believers who share that same undentable assurance that Brexit day is (simultaneously) the End of All This and a glorious New Beginnning.

I'm not sure how to explain to them that (a) signing the WA is not "a deal" - the deal still has to be done; and (b) "no deal" isn't a return to the 80s or the 70s or the 60s, but a step forward into unknown territory where everything they want to do will need a deal.

Stop moaning ffs

Court in Scotland has found Prorogue is legal and can go ahead.

Peregrinus

CelticRambler wrote: »

Anyone know if, having taken back control, Parliament can vote to postpone the start-date of prorogation, or even instruct the Queen to revoke her decision?

No. Monarch acts on the advice of ministers, not parliament. If parliament wants monarch to be given certain advice, needs to vote out ministers who won't give that advice and replace them with more biddable ministers.

CelticRambler wrote: »

Alternatively, and I know this would be a very long shot (but still ...), prior to facilitating Johnson's GE, could Parliament award themselves the power to revoke Article 50 to allow heads to cool and/or the establishment of an independent Brexit Commission, and do so before prorogation and the EU summit?

In principle, Parliament can do anything.

In practice, they'd need to agree among themselves to do that, they'd need to draft some quite complex legislation (without the assistance of the professional drafters who work for the government and who draft nearly all UK legislation) and they'd need to get it passed through all stages in both the Commons and the Lords, and signed by the Queen. Realistically, there isn't enough time for all this.

robinph

The success of last night, and the expected success of later today, in taking control and preventing a no-deal exit on the 31st of October is all completely pointless the moment they agree to a general election. They need to block no deal at the end of October, and also change it from being the default option at the end of any extension or in X months time we'll just be back in exactly the same place again.

Zubeneschamali

pauldla wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

So Boris has to survive 77 days from today to Nov 20 in order to get off off the bottom rung, and he would still be the shortest serving PM in 180 years.

Cameron has over 6 years and is at #22 in the chart.

Even May at 3 years 11 days looks out of reach.