Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

darem93 wrote: »

Very very poor performance from Boris in his first PMQ's. He really is appalling when it comes to any form of scrutiny.

He may be good at bluster and not answering questions, but like you say under scrutiny he is all over the place.

I think the same will be true of Cummings, what does he know of government and actually being in charge and creating policies that will work? The answer will probably determine how long he still has an office in Downing Street.

CelticRambler

interlocked wrote: »

if I was a Tory backbencher, I'd be sliding under the bench in front of me.

Ah-ha! So that's what JRM was trying to do last night, only he didn't have a bench in front of him?

lawred2

Shelga wrote: »

The Caracas line was truly pathetic, cringeworthy stuff.

Is this the kind of rubbish that they chortle away to smugly at Eton?

In any normal school, it would get them beaten up. Boris exists in a world that is light years away from any normal Brit.

In any normal school - this type of stuff isn't a topic of discussion

briany

Enzokk wrote: »

He may be good at bluster and not answering questions, but like you say under scrutiny he is all over the place.

I think the same will be true of Cummings, what does he know of government and actually being in charge and creating policies that will work? The answer will probably determine how long he still has an office in Downing Street.

It should matter that Boris often falters under scrutiny, but it doesn't matter much to his supporters. Very much the same phenomenon as Trump in that regard. What gets his supporters' goat is that he's being stifled by the small, insignificant matter of democratic procedure.

I don't think Boris is a complete clown - you have to have some nous to get to the top of the Conservative snake pit - but he's certainly not a man of detail, and for his supporters, he really doesn't need to be...

Water John

But we were told, and that's why the Tories elected him, that he would destroy Corbyn at PMQ and during a GE.
Will he and Cummings even last, one Scarrmucci?
To lose your first vote in Parliament, you have lost all credibility.

Enzokk

briany wrote: »

It should matter that Boris often falters under scrutiny, but it doesn't matter much to his supporters. Very much the same phenomenon as Trump in that regard. What gets his supporters' goat is that he's being stifled by the small, insignificant matter of democratic procedure.

I don't think Boris is a complete clown - you have to have some nous to get to the top of the Conservative snake pit - but he's certainly not a man of detail, and for his supporters, he really doesn't need to be...

Sure, but standing up to this type of scrutiny was supposed to be one of his strengths and it seems like the emperor has no clothes. I would not discount the appearance of looking statesmanlike playing a role for voters. I think that is one reason why Ed Miliband struggled. He just didn't look like David Cameron and this played against him. Publish a few bad photos that everyone has and you can influence voters.

Water John

The pic last night of Boris grabbing his hair, comes to mind.

MadYaker

I dearly hope labour and the lib dems force bojo to go cap in hand to the EU to look for another extension.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

The pic last night of Boris grabbing his hair, comes to mind.

I missed that. Link?

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

He may be good at bluster and not answering questions, but like you say under scrutiny he is all over the place.



I think the same will be true of Cummings, what does he know of government and actually being in charge and creating policies that will work? The answer will probably determine how long he still has an office in Downing Street.

Cummings is a charlatan. It shows you how messed up British politics is that such a total chancer could have been regarded as a "political genius" : the guy has been a walking car crash since he entered Downing Street, making blunders all over the place and rubbing people up the wrong way.

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

Everyone knew, that is why he issued the threats to bring them back in line. Surely the onus should be in him to be sure anyway?

And how do you measure that? The PM must assume the support of their party and partners until proven otherwise. And the only way to prove otherwise is to have continuous votes of confidence. Technically that's possible, except when parliament is not sitting. But it's a very clunky way of going about business and would make them look weak. I appreciate that he IS weak, but that's by the by.

briany

Electoralcalculus.com is predicting, based on current opinion polling, that the Cons would win a majority of 50 seats. Seems a bit steep, considering their current performance, but what would their course of action be if a GE did return a simple majority for the Cons? They still have the ERG hardcore, meaning that a tweaked May deal would probably not get across the line. Game over, in that case?

robinph

Just noticed in one of the still photos on the BBC feed of what is happening that Ken Clarke is still sat on the government benches next to Theresa May. They have obviously not felt confident enough to remove him to the other side just yet.

54and56

Cracker from John McDonnell responding to Javid's spending statement.

BoJo was heckling him (which of course he had anticipated) and right on queue he turns to Speaker Bercow stating that he believes the member opposite (BoJo) is shouting at him and that like the last time the member was shouting at someone he may have to call the police

Boom!!

54and56

robinph wrote: »

Just noticed in one of the still photos on the BBC feed of what is happening that Ken Clarke is still sat on the government benches next to Theresa May. They have obviously not felt confident enough to remove him to the other side just yet.

They can't. MP's are free to sit where they wish. Ken Clarke may have lost the whip but he is still a member of the Conservative party and even if he was kicked out all together he said last night that he still defines himself as a Conservative so sitting where he has always sat is actually a protest to highlight that they can try to move the Tory party to the far right all they like but he and others who continue to define themselves as conservatives will sit right where they always have as they haven't changed their values.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

Just noticed in one of the still photos on the BBC feed of what is happening that Ken Clarke is still sat on the government benches next to Theresa May. They have obviously not felt confident enough to remove him to the other side just yet.

I think the problem is seating space as well. There just isn't room. But yeah, I'd like to see someone tell Ken Clarke to cross the floor. It would be far too symbolic a sight for the Tories.

Duane Dibbley

54and56 wrote: »

They can't. MP's are free to sit where they wish. Ken Clarke may have lost the whip but he is still a member of the Conservative party and even if he was kicked out all together he said last night that he still defines himself as a Conservative so sitting where he has always sat is actually a protest to highlight that they can try to move the Tory party to the far right all they like but he and others who continue to define themselves as conservatives will sit right where they always have as they haven't changed their values.

How is he a member of the Conservative Party?

Whip being withdrawn from an MP or Lord.

This means that the Member is effectively expelled from their party (but keeps their seat) and must sit as an independent until the whip is restored.

lawred2

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

How is he a member of the Conservative Party?

parliamentary party I would presume that means

not every conservative party members sits in the HOC

Seth Brundle

FT reporting that a recession would be highly probable following a crash out...
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1169227337449312257

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

FT reporting that a recession would be highly probable following a crash out...
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1169227337449312257

Is that like scientific speak when they say for example based on all the evidence meaning it's true. Are the FT basically saying a recession will happen barring?

Christy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

And how do you measure that? The PM must assume the support of their party and partners until proven otherwise. And the only way to prove otherwise is to have continuous votes of confidence. Technically that's possible, except when parliament is not sitting. But it's a very clunky way of going about business and would make them look weak. I appreciate that he IS weak, but that's by the by.

How often does the pm need to present something to the Queen?

It does not need to be continuous but this was the first thing presented to the parliment from Boris. Hey I would happily go for a single vote getting passed for a particular pm. So his first action would be a vote to confirm himself and then he goes to the Queen. Then he is grand till someone starts calling no confidence votes against him.

However in this case Boris knew he had people in open revolt (Hammond) and a wafer thin majority.

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

How often does the pm need to present something to the Queen?

At least once a year. And afaik, there are weekly meetings. And then every time there's a law passed. Quite frequently actually. This is not the first time the PM did not have a clear majority, nor the first time they didn't have the full support of their party for some legislative or other decisive matter. Tony Blair had to rely on Tory support for the Iraq war as he had 139 Labour MPs vote against it.

serfboard

quokula wrote: »

it's a bit over the top to treat Soames and the other rebels as some kind of heroes - they were complicit in the years of undercutting of public services and migrant blaming that led to the Brexit vote, they mostly sat on their hands while May drew the extreme red lines at the beginning of the negotiations which have now become the baseline, and they're only now finally saying enough is enough at the last moment.

Soames is a particularly nasty POS:

Soames was chairman of the private security contractor Aegis Defence Services which was bought in 2015 by GardaWorld, for whom he now acts as a member of the International Advisory Board. Aegis had a series of contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars to provide guards to protect US military bases in Iraq from 2004 onwards. From 2011, the company broadened its recruitment to take in African countries, having previously employed people from the UK, the US and Nepal.

Contract documents say that the soldiers from Sierra Leone were paid $16 (£11) a day. A documentary, The Child Soldier’s New Job, broadcast in Denmark, alleges that the estimated 2,500 Sierra Leonean personnel who were recruited by Aegis and other private security companies to work in Iraq included former child soldiers.

Employing former child soldiers to do your dirty work in Iraq for $16 a day? Yeah - he's a real hero alright.

FrancieBrady

serfboard wrote: »

Soames is a particularly nasty POS:
Employing former child soldiers to do your dirty work in Iraq for $16 a day? Yeah - he's a real hero alright.

Far too often the simple fact that you age, buys you credits in politics.

Water John

PM meets the Queen every Tuesday TMK.

Seth Brundle

Severe hard Brexit could reignite sectarian violence in Ireland, ratings agency says
DBRS suggests prolonged period of disruption could lead to UK breakup

Sectarian violence could return to Ireland in the event of a “severe” hard Brexit, credit ratings agency DBRS said on Wednesday.

The Canadian company said increasing security and political risks “would be expected to cause significant disruption” in such a scenario.

A severe hard Brexit would involve a “deep and prolonged period of disruption and serious fallout with the EU”, according to the agency. Another no-deal scenario envisaged by DBRS would include an immediate agreement on key transition terms.

“This outcome could deliver Brexit and re-orient the political debate to the future relationship with swift agreement on both sides somewhat limiting the chaos.”

But the risk of a severe hard Brexit could lead to the breakup of the UK “through the unification of Northern Ireland with the Republic”, the ratings agency said, adding that this path would be drawn out.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/severe-hard-brexit-could-reignite-sectarian-violence-in-ireland-ratings-agency-says-1.4007451

Christy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

At least once a year. And afaik, there are weekly meetings. And then every time there's a law passed. Quite frequently actually. This is not the first time the PM did not have a clear majority, nor the first time they didn't have the full support of their party for some legislative or other decisive matter. Tony Blair had to rely on Tory support for the Iraq war as he had 139 Labour MPs vote against it.

I more meant meetings where the PM needs to claim parliamentary support without a vote having been held in parliament (like Boris did). Weekly meetings don't have this. Nor do laws that have been passed as they have had a vote generally.

I mean Blair passed bills with respect to the Iraq war (thanks to the Tory's) so he had parliamentary support on it. So it isn't the same.

Had Boris passed a bill for him shutting down parliament with labour support I would not have an issue. I don't need a clear majority, just pass a vote saying the parliament supports him, whatever parties are required to get it across the line.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Far too often the simple fact that you age, buys you credits in politics.

The whitewashing of Winston Churchill is similar. His career in Afghanistan, Kenya and India (not to mention the black and tans) is a litany of war crimes and excesses.

VinLieger

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Severe hard Brexit could reignite sectarian violence in Ireland, ratings agency says
DBRS suggests prolonged period of disruption could lead to UK breakup


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/severe-hard-brexit-could-reignite-sectarian-violence-in-ireland-ratings-agency-says-1.4007451

No fvcking ****...... its not like this wasn't massively telegraphed prior to the referendum or for the entirety of the last 3 years but of course thats all project fear, these fvcking people.......

trellheim

Question.

If Vote of No Confidence passed there is a provision in FTPA for it to be brought back to a vote within 14 days ; possibly resulting in a change to a Labour Govt without a GE.

Has anyone advised on this ?