Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Popeleo wrote: »

IIRC one of the conditions that the UK signed up to in order to get the current extension was to agree to not try and renegotiate the WA. For all the posturing of the last few weeks, could Johnson's letter be seen as the first formal attempt to do so with the EU?

All the reputational damage (added to some historical bad blood) will count against them if they go 'no deal' and then look for a deal of some sort afterwards.

Unfortunately, it smacks more of a PR stunt aimed at the hard Brexiteers. Nobody on the EU side will take it remotely seriously.

reslfj

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

In farmers' case, because every time they have to do something that is more work or costs money e.g. tagging sheep, they complain to local politicians who say "I know, but the EU made us do it", so they believed that Brexit would mean that they make the same money but can take a lax approach to animal and environmental welfare etc.

These people, I think, should indeed "suffer the slings and arrows of their own self imposed fortune". Stubborn, greedy stupidity is not under the welfare state - but under the bankruptcy courts. That's very much how it should be.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

... the quotas are set by EU at a macro level ....

The total catch for each fish stock must be within sustainable limits. This is actually an UN treaty requirement.
The total quotas is determined and recommended by biologist and fixed each year by the EU.
The EU divides the total catch into national quotas based on historical landings for each fish stock. The UK has divided the national quotas into quotas for each fisher/fishing boat.

The UK has allowed individual UK quotas to be tradable, and allowed some older fishers to get rich by selling their quotas to UK registered but foreign owned ships. This is nothing the EU has forced upon the UK.
In my opinion it has been very unwise.

Lars

Sierra Oscar

Strazdas wrote: »

Unfortunately, it smacks more of a PR stunt aimed at the hard Brexiteers. Nobody on the EU side will take it remotely seriously.

That's what it looks like. Looks like Boris is looking for a firm rejection to whip up anger and divert attention away from Project Yellowhammer.

trellheim

The Single Electricity Market is because someone who actually knows has banged the table and says if the EU(ROI) cut off the sparks then NI goes dark (remember that plan to float barges ) ... for those who've forgotten this was it https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/northern-ireland-facing-energy-deficit-if-no-deal-brexit-1.3561919

trellheim

OH FFS

Dublin Govt saying it needs to see viable Alternative Arrangements for Backstop to go. Here you are, we’ve done the heavy-lifting

(Sorry thats a Steve Baker retweet I am infuriated ..... You dont see us calling it the London Govt do you now ? )

https://twitter.com/ProsperityUK


Stop me before i start shouting we're back to the nicky morgan bs "alternative arrangements"


Already rubbished by a lot of people see https://twitter.com/nealerichmond/status/1159434655025811459

allthedoyles

The letter sounds to me like half of it was written by Arlene Foster and Boris copied and pasted it .
He was clever enough to confirm the agreement on the single electricity market.
It's all bluff from start to finish.

trellheim

If Steve Baker is retweeting that above, my "fix is in" nose is twitching, if the ERG are squared on (WA minus backstop) then we just need to hear from Mark Francois. Confirmation will then come when a minister ( Ian Duncan smith for chuckles) says this in public in a day or two

Gunmonkey

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

That's what it looks like. Looks like Boris is looking for a firm rejection to whip up anger and divert attention away from Project Yellowhammer.

Pretty much, its all so he can swan out in front of the press next week after the G7 and put his hands up going "I tried but those gosh darn meanies EU/Irish just wouldnt budge on renegotiation! Damn them...but remember vote me and Tories in the upcoming election, I tried remember!"

farmerval

I think so far all Johnson's bluffs/threats haven't worked. He appears quite desperate for the EU to respond so he can throw his hands out and say we really tried but these guys just won't play ball.
But when he's shouting into an empty vessel all he is doing is making noise.

One issue that keeps coming up here is Freedom of Movement. I for one moment do not believe suspension of this is stopping people entering Britain, it's stopping them looking for work in Britain, no way are the UK Government going to man border checks and make sure everyone entering the country has a visa or whatever.

However Boris is not slow about giving the impression to Brexit Supporters that they will stop Johnny Foreigners from entering the country. It's infuriating when Journalists never pin down Brexit Politicians about this, are they going to man every border crossing, Ferry Port etc and stop those without visa's/papers entering?

maebee

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I sincerely hope that those filmmakers are still making their fly in the EU wall documentary, just to see the reactions as these missives come in.

I was thinking the same thing, as the last one was excellent. Pity they didn't make one in June 2016. I know that on result morning, I woke up with a huge WTF?. Would love to have seen the reactions from the EU heads. Of course, not many expected the 3 year shyt show to follow from this stupid result.

beggars_bush

farmerval wrote: »

I think so far all Johnson's bluffs/threats haven't worked. He appears quite desperate for the EU to respond so he can throw his hands out and say we really tried but these guys just won't play ball.
But when he's shouting into an empty vessel all he is doing is making noise.

One issue that keeps coming up here is Freedom of Movement. I for one moment do not believe suspension of this is stopping people entering Britain, it's stopping them looking for work in Britain, no way are the UK Government going to man border checks and make sure everyone entering the country has a visa or whatever.

However Boris is not slow about giving the impression to Brexit Supporters that they will stop Johnny Foreigners from entering the country. It's infuriating when Journalists never pin down Brexit Politicians about this, are they going to man every border crossing, Ferry Port etc and stop those without visa's/papers entering?

Ahem, UK land border
All 230 miles of it

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

"Anti democratic backstop" is clearly not aimed at the EU (the phrase doesn't even make any sense). That is purely for the British audience.

It makes just as much sense as "democratically controlled" immigration.

Anyone like to predict how the public would vote given a choice of immigration from the EU or from the rest of the word ?

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

The UK has allowed individual UK quotas to be tradable, and allowed some older fishers to get rich by selling their quotas to UK registered but foreign owned ships. This is nothing the EU has forced upon the UK.
In my opinion it has been very unwise.

UK boats are supposed to land their catch in the UK but the UK doesn't impose those rules. So the fish and processing jobs and fees go abroad.



55% of Northern Ireland's quota is held by the Voyager. A boat that operates out of Killybegs. (page 58)


https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

Five Rich List families control a third of Scottish quota and have minority investments in companies that hold a further 11%. This means, in total, companies holding close to half (45%) of all Scottish fishing quotas are wholly or partly owned by five wealthy families.
...
In England, the UK’s second largest fishing nation, three Rich List families control around 30% of the quota.

A further 49% is ultimately held by Dutch, Spanish and Icelandic interests who have bought up English vessels and quota.

Under the UK system, this16ft boat was allowed catch 1,500 tonnes a year, a fifth of the entire fishing quota for the South West.


None of this has anything to do with EU rules.

Anytime you hear Grove speak remember he's played the fish card many times. And remember how many Tory MP's used fishing to get elected last time out.

J Mysterio

Corbyn is still wasting time 'demanding the release of assesments'. I mean, do you really need any more smoking guns that Brexit is a disaster and a lie? Evidence abounds.

The government has been reeling from one disaster to another for three years straight and they have not capitalised. I resent Corbyn as much as I resent Labour MPs in general for letting him get away with his lack of leadership and fantastical notions. Corbyn is such a complete waster. Events are too big for him, he's not up to the task. He should have maybe been a trade union leader, or better, president of a Village Green Preservation Society.

UK is in big trouble with Johnson and Corbyn. Both Tories and Labour split, country divided. The horrifying formation and huge vote for the Brexit Party show politics are very fluid right now. UK is an absolute powderkeg, and Johnson is busy setting off the biggest fireworks he can find.

J Mysterio

Also, what is interesting is the backstop was supposed to take the heat off NI but the UK, having made NI the focus of the disagreement, have put a huge pressure on it. It is unconscionable, wreckless.

The pressure will only intensify as the outlook becomes increasingly dire and uncertain, especially given the language being used. Depending on the outcome of Brexit, NI might be quite unruly. The Fermanagh explosion is another little reminder that the situation is delicate.

Popeleo

Strazdas wrote: »

Unfortunately, it smacks more of a PR stunt aimed at the hard Brexiteers. Nobody on the EU side will take it remotely seriously.

I'm sure that they know it is for UK domestic consumption. I'm sure that Boris wants an agreement even if others don't but he will go along with no deal if that is what keeps him in the terrace house with the shiny black door. Ego over country.

However it is technically breaking the extension agreement and could be used as further ammunition in a post 'no deal' negotiation where they will probably be in a very weak position.

And this time the gloves will be off and it won't be just the three main parts of the WA that will be on the table - I wouldn't like to be living in Gibraltar as that border will be slower than molasses as Spain strengthen their claim. Others might take the opportunity to get what they can out of the situation - maybe Cyprus will want those large air bases back, others want different things. (If so, I wonder will Cummings sticks around long enough to spin that as a success.)

Peregrinus

Popeleo wrote: »

IIRC one of the conditions that the UK signed up to in order to get the current extension was to agree to not try and renegotiate the WA. For all the posturing of the last few weeks, could Johnson's letter be seen as the first formal attempt to do so with the EU?

All the reputational damage (added to some historical bad blood) will count against them if they go 'no deal' and then look for a deal of some sort afterwards.

Three points:

1. The UK and the EU agreed, when agreeing the current extension, that it wouldn't be used to renegotiate the WA. But that's just a political agreement; it can be revised or reversed at any time if it suits both the UK and the EU to revise or reverse it. So the UK suggesting that maybe there should be a bit of an 'oul renegotiation of maybe one or two bits of the WA is not such a terrible thing. It's not evidence of bad faith; it's not asking the EU to do something the EU couldn't and wouldn't do if it were for its own benefit to do it. At most, it's a request that is unlikely to meet with success but, hey, if you don't ask, you don't get. Asking is not such a terrible thing.

So, the UK doesn't incur odium or ridicule or suffer huge reputational damage simply by asking.

But . . .

2. It's the details of the ask that are problematic. The meat of Johnson's letter is basically the Brady amendment, with more words but no more detail. The UK wants the backstop removed and replaced with "something else", but it has no suggestion as to what the something else might be, and has no apparent intentions of advancing any suggestions. That was a ludicrous position to take last January, which found no traction at all with the EU. It's even more ludicrous now; it's impossible to believe that Johnson thinks it will find any traction; and therefore it's not a serious attempt to start negotiations. So there is some reputional damage, not so much from the fact that the UK suggested negotiations, but more from the fact that the suggestion was so idiotically half-baked. The UK government paints itself, again, as Not A Serious Negotiating Partner.

3. And there are other aspects of the letter that will piss off the EU - the attempt, once again, to suggest that the UK's obligations are limited to what they do actually physically at the border; the explicit repudiation of para 49 of the Joint Report. Johnson must know that these things can only piss off the EU, and presumably his intention is to piss them off, in order to avert the already very small risk that they might actually respond favourably to the request to renegotiate the WA. And if there's one thing that's guaranteed to piss you off, its the awareness that somebody is trying to piss you off.

So, I think we know have an answer to the question "Does Johnson really think the EU might cave on the backstop in order to avoid no deal, or has he decided to go for no-deal and is merely playing to that section of the UK public who are willing to be conned into thinking that it's the EU's fault?" The answer is the latter.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Corbyn is still wasting time 'demanding the release of assesments'. I mean, do you really need any more smoking guns that Brexit is a disaster and a lie? Evidence abounds.

The government has been reeling from one disaster to another for three years straight and they have not capitalised. I resent Corbyn as much as I resent Labour MPs in general for letting him get away with his lack of leadership and fantastical notions. Corbyn is such a complete waster. Events are too big for him, he's not up to the task. He should have maybe been a trade union leader, or better, president of a Village Green Preservation Society.

UK is in big trouble with Johnson and Corbyn. Both Tories and Labour split, country divided. The horrifying formation and huge vote for the Brexit Party show politics are very fluid right now. UK is an absolute powderkeg, and Johnson is busy setting off the biggest fireworks he can find.

The way the country is split in two, right down the middle is extraordinary. I can't think of any other country in Europe that is split like this. It's like Spain during the Civil War in the 1930s or something.

Peregrinus

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Yep, more of the same, pandering to domestic interests. Two points in particular:

1. Why Donald Tusk? He isnt the negotiator . . .

Tusk is the President of the European Council. In the letter Johnson is repudiating parts of the Joint Report, which was agreed and approved by the European Council (and by HMG, including Boris). The Commission negotiators have no mandate to negotiate anything in violation of what the Council has approved. Therefore, a first step in getting the negotiation that Johnson says he wants is getting the Council to mandate the Commission to undertake the negotation. So Tusk is the person he needs to write to.

johnnyskeleton

Peregrinus wrote: »

Tusk is the President of the European Council. In the letter Johnson is repudiating parts of the Joint Report, which was agreed and approved by the European Council (and by HMG, including Boris). The Commission negotiators have no mandate to negotiate anything in violation of what the Council has approved. Therefore, a first step in getting the negotiation that Johnson says he wants is getting the Council to mandate the Commission to undertake the negotation. So Tusk is the person he needs to write to.

As in, hes trying to recommence the ebtire Art 50 negotiation process from the start?

Peregrinus

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

As in, hes trying to recommence the ebtire Art 50 negotiation process from the start?

Not the whole of it. Just the bit where he's not happy with the outcome.

He makes the request safe in the knowledge that there is no danger of the EU acceding to it. He has done nothing to demonstrate that, if they did accede to it, he could get a revised WA approved by the Commons; if anything, he has taken steps to make this unlikely, and the EU will have noticed that.

PeadarCo

Foghladh wrote: »

I don't really see where you're coming from. You seem to be of the point of view that if you're exporting a product to a country then all industry must align with that country's standards. As a stand alone entity I could export a chicken to the EU if it meets the EUs' standards. I can export a tractor to Brazil if that tractor meets Brazilian standards. My particular standards for what I'll accept could be completely different.

I am looking at the idea through the eyes of a business. Every different variation of a product or service costs money. The less variations the simpler and cheaper it is to provide a product or service. The UK can have what ever laws and standards it wants. However the bigger the difference from the major global standards the more expensive it is to produce a product or service. Eventually there comes a point when this extra cost is passed onto the customer(making UK imports more expensive) and if the differences continue it will become more uneconomical to provide a good or service to the UK. Therefore from an economic perspective the UK will be forced to pick global standards to follow/emulate that it will have no influence over.

My point is about economics. Strictly speaking the UK can have whatever standards it wants. However there is a massive economic incentive to choose global standards.

Leroy42

Of course this is based on hindsight but isn't it likely that the current extension has been a mistake?

The UK have not only had the time to better prepare for No Deal, but more importantly they have had the time to spin the whole thing to suit their narrative.

At a time of maximum pressure EU gave the UK a get out of jail free card.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Of course this is based on hindsight but isn't it likely that the current extension has been a mistake?

The UK have not only had the time to better prepare for No Deal, but more importantly they have had the time to spin the whole thing to suit their narrative.

At a time of maximum pressure EU gave the UK a get out of jail free card.

I don't think so.

Think it further indicates the ineptitude of the UK.
Donald Tusks, do not waste this time, has been ignored given they held a 4 week PM contest and then sent parliament home for the summer as normal.

Boris's letter yesterday saying time is short after doing the above is insulting.

They were going to spin anyway, media and politicians, the last few months reiterated, they haven't a clue.

From the EU's perspective, they at least we're accommodating, the last few weeks in particular have shown how everyone in the EU is staying together.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Of course this is based on hindsight but isn't it likely that the current extension has been a mistake?

The UK have not only had the time to better prepare for No Deal, but more importantly they have had the time to spin the whole thing to suit their narrative.

They haven't better prepared for no deal, and their attempted spin is exactly what it was last March. Those who were convinced by it then will be convinced by it now; and vice versa.

Leroy42 wrote: »

At a time of maximum pressure EU gave the UK a get out of jail free card.

It's not remotely like a get out of jail free card. They're still looking down the barrel of a crash-out Brexit, their bluster about the EU inevitably caving once faced by a PM with a penis has been shown to be bogus, and the world can see that they completely wasted the extension of time given to them, proving that they have in fact no viable plan for a deliverable, non-ruinous brexit.

volchitsa

Leroy42 wrote: »

Of course this is based on hindsight but isn't it likely that the current extension has been a mistake?

The UK have not only had the time to better prepare for No Deal, but more importantly they have had the time to spin the whole thing to suit their narrative.

At a time of maximum pressure EU gave the UK a get out of jail free card.

I'm not sure they've actually prepared any better though (but if they have that would be a good thing as it might mitigate the harmful effects on us somewhat too - I don't wish them ill in their madness, if only because it would harm us too).

But I can't see that they have, myself. As for spinning it, true believers were always going to believe no matter what weren't they? The fact that Boris is now in the hot seat and not Theresa May who voted Remain makes it harder IMO for the Leave wing of the Tories to escape blame, and that's important for the general public, I reckon.

On the other hand, I can't fathom why thousands are not already out protesting at the hames being made of this by the Tories, so what do I know.

johnnyskeleton

Strazdas wrote: »

The way the country is split in two, right down the middle is extraordinary. I can't think of any other country in Europe that is split like this. It's like Spain during the Civil War in the 1930s or something.

If it was split in 2 it might be ok. But its split in many different ways.

There are no deal, deal brexit and no brexit people. Maybe 1/3rd of the population. The deal and no deal brexiteers cant agree between themselves, the remain cant agree with deal brexiteers as a mitigation strategy. Obvious no deal and remain cant agree at all.

Then there is the Tory/Labour split, which is also split further into leave and remain on each side. Labour leavers will not accept a deal negotiated by Tories, and Tories wont accept a deal negotiated by Labour.

Finally, the geographical differences have never been greater, wib Brexit fitting flush into the NI divide, Scotland being remain and England being leave, Urban vs Rural etc.

The UK is utterly fractured and tribal. Someone asked a while back why farmers and fishermen voted leave. But maybe the question is why would they still vote leave, and its because in some depressed villages and fishing towns, hey have identified with leave, and they mah now feel unable to vote remain without feeling like they are betraying their friends and family

prawnsambo

Johnson is quite capable of turning up to his meetings with Macron and Merkel (and even in his phone call to Leo) and telling them to ignore the letter, that it's only for internal consumption to make him look good to the brexiters so he can win a majority and get the WA passed. And he'll be using that line to try and get some change. I've always suspected that the change he wants is the original NI only backstop. Which he can only get with a majority. But it solves all his problems and opens the way for GB to diverge towards the US. NI can stay in the EU for all he cares.

Edit: All the no-deal planning and leaks have been done to frighten people and pave the way for a super duper special, only Boris could deliver it, unicorn filled agreement.

Mr.Wemmick

volchitsa wrote: »

I'm not sure they've actually prepared any better though (but if they have that would be a good thing as it might mitigate the harmful effects on us somewhat too - I don't wish them ill in their madness, if only because it would harm us too).

But I can't see that they have, myself. As for spinning it, true believers were always going to believe no matter what weren't they? The fact that Boris is now in the hot seat and not Theresa May who voted Remain makes it harder IMO for the Leave wing of the Tories to escape blame, and that's important for the general public, I reckon.

On the other hand, I can't fathom why thousands are not already out protesting at the hames being made of this by the Tories, so what do I know.

Because the Tories rule the roost and have done for decades and any brief labour spells in government and their implemented social programmes for the benefit of communties and the empowerment of the individual have all but disappeared. e.g. Sure Start, to name but one. The slow methodical break down of the truth and reality has been very successfullly delivered by the tories & the media over many years.. people do not know which way is up anymore and are numb to their demise. Tragic.

A bit late, but there is an organised march happening in October:

"A huge demonstration demanding a fresh Brexit referendum will be staged less than two weeks before the date when Boris Johnson is threatening a crash-out departure from the EU."

Nody

prawnsambo wrote: »

Johnson is quite capable of turning up to his meetings with Macron and Merkel (and even in his phone call to Leo) and telling them to ignore the letter, that it's only for internal consumption to make him look good to the brexiters so he can win a majority and get the WA passed. And he'll be using that line to try and get some change. I've always suspected that the change he wants is the original NI only backstop. Which he can only get with a majority. But it solves all his problems and opens the way for GB to diverge towards the US. NI can stay in the EU for all he cares.

Edit: All the no-deal planning and leaks have been done to frighten people and pave the way for a super duper special, only Boris could deliver it, unicorn filled agreement.

Problem is at this time the chances are very high that this would end up being leaked in some form as Boris (and UK) have had bonfires with what ever goodwill they had in the first place. And even if he and the government denies it the seeds will be planted and of course the UK newspapers will warn him of the consequences on going back etc.