Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123

Does any politician or anyone listen to those protesters shouting loudly in the background of every TV interview?

Seems like an awful lot of wasted energy for zero gain.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

If the bill gets passed tonight (it will) and he fails to secure a deal by 2 days after the next euro summit (oct 19th) he is compelled to ask for an extension until january 2020, as far as I understand it. Once the bill passes no deal brexit is no longer an option unless the EU refuse the extension. In which case the UK would crash out on oct 31st.

Johnson has no choice but to obey the instructions of parliament.

It's a well constructed bill and gives Johnson a chance to get the bill he claims he wants and claims he has been working towards, if you believe his lies.

To add to this. Corbyn has said he won't agree to an election unless a no deal exit is off the table.

is_that_so

MadYaker wrote: »

To add to this. Corbyn has said he won't agree to an election unless a no deal exit is off the table.

Boris will have no problem agreeing to that as he really wants an election. The campaign will be all about leaving and if he gets numbers "the people have spoken" will trump this promise.

briany

Looks like there is a move among Conservative Lords to bog down the forthcoming Brexit extension bill with an absolute rake of amendments (approx. 90) so that it can't make it back to the Commons before the prorogation.

L1011

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes. If he gets the numbers on the 15th October he'll repeal what they're doing today and most likely go for No Deal. If he doesn't others will.

Where is he going to get the numbers from precisely?

is_that_so

L1011 wrote: »

Where is he going to get the numbers from precisely?

Well he imagines he will in the election. I wouldn't even bet a euro on the outcome and I reckon the expulsions will come back and bite him.

robinph

briany wrote: »

Looks like there is a move among Conservative Lords to bog down the forthcoming Brexit extension bill with an absolute rake of amendments (approx. 90) so that it can't make it back to the Commons before the prorogation.

They were turning up with sleeping bags and changes of clothes this morning prepared to hang around as long as required. There apparently isn't as many rules regarding how many amendments can be brought in the Lords and every thing has to be voted on. Seemed like there also wasn't any rules about when they stop so is just a case of who is prepared to hang around longest into the night.

is_that_so

briany wrote: »

Looks like there is a move among Conservative Lords to bog down the forthcoming Brexit extension bill with an absolute rake of amendments (approx. 90) so that it can't make it back to the Commons before the prorogation.

It will, Smith of Labour has tabled a motion for today to head that kind of thing off, but it may delay it a bit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/tory-peers-accused-wrecking-tactics-bill-delay-brexit

L1011

is_that_so wrote: »

Well he imagines he will in the election. I wouldn't even bet a euro on the outcome and I reckon the expulsions will come back and bite him.

He has to get an election called first. He has no ability to do so on his own.

Even if this bill passes and Labour/SNP acede to an election it'll start to run out of time to hold it.

Leonard Hofstadter

trellheim wrote: »

Another Superb report from Peter Foster

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1169255491211595777

Rising to Tony Connelly levels of excellence here.

How he's still working for the Telegraph js one of life's greatest mysteries. His abilities and competencies are way beyond that rag of a paper.

is_that_so

L1011 wrote: »

He has to get an election called first. He has no ability to do so.

Labour want one once they get the bill sorted so I think it will happen and they'll support his motion. The HoC would wrap up next week anyway through prorogation. The date for an election has been heavily leaked already - Oct 15th

ToBeFrank123

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

robinph

is_that_so wrote: »

It will, Smith of Labour has tabled a motion for today to head that kind of thing off, but it may delay it a bit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/tory-peers-accused-wrecking-tactics-bill-delay-brexit

Except the motion to ensure that the new bill is passed before Monday is now the one that the Tory Lords are putting their daft amendments to. They are trying to cause the delay on the vote that is to prevent them causing the delay.

is_that_so

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

How he's still working for the Telegraph js one of life's greatest mysteries. His abilities and competencies are way beyond that rag of a paper.

In its defence it's never been a rag and it has always had some very good journalism, just very dubious positions on some things to many people.

is_that_so

robinph wrote: »

Except the motion to ensure that the new bill is passed before Monday is now the one that the Tory Lords are putting their daft amendments to. They are trying to cause the delay on the vote that is to prevent them causing the delay.

The Lib Dems & Labour have the numbers. They reckon it will be done.

briany

is_that_so wrote: »

Labour want one once they get the bill sorted so I think it will happen and they'll support his motion. The HoC would wrap up on Monday anyway through prorogation. The date for an election has been heavily leaked already - Oct 15th

There still needs to be somewhere above 72 Conservative MPs voting in favour of a GE to get it over the line.

gmisk

The below seems to have been kind of lost today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=63&v=U2g4699lePM
Which is a shame....lack of apology yet again.

is_that_so

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

If it works out that way he'll feel a lot stronger and IMO even less likely to even look at alternatives. It is all about where the seats go and a huge gamble.

is_that_so

briany wrote: »

There still needs to be somewhere above 72 Conservative MPs voting in favour of a GE to get it over the line.

72 out of 300 odd is a given and they'll whip 'em or deselect 'em.

An Ciarraioch

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

No, once he requests the extension, Brexit Party support rises, and Labour become the largest party.

Joe_ Public

Labour would need to win at least 270 seats to be able to form a government without the Lib Dems and even that will come at the price of a second indy ref. Still dont see Johnson ever requesting that extension though.

Calltocall

If they go for election, conservatives will win and on we go again, just get it done on the 31st and leave deal or no deal. My god what an absolute cluster****, I don’t subscribe to either conservatives or labour but for me the most frustrating character in this debacle is Corbyn, his dithering etc my god if they had a leader with strength and a clear stance the conservatives would be in opposition by now.

Limpy

Mod. No name calling please.

is_that_so

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Labour would need to win at least 270 seats to be able to form a government without the Lib Dems and even that will come at the price of a second indy ref. Still dont see Johnson ever requesting that extension though.

I'd see a national unity government or coalition, excluding the Torys as an option post-election.

Imreoir2

What is the motion for this division?

Tippex

Labour has already said today that they will be abstaining from the vote for the GE. Phillip Hammond also said in the debate that there is an expectation that when the bill passes to stop no-deal that Boris will do everything to stop it from actually happening and they expect it to go to litigation. The fear is that if no-deal goes through and then a GE happens that the next government has the power to bring a bill to reverse the no-deal bill and this is what they are afraid of.

So until the extension is granted it appears that Labour will not vote for a GE.

ath262

vote is on 2nd reading of the Bill...

bobmalooka

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, once he requests the extension, Brexit Party support rises, and Labour become the largest party.

This - rise in support for brexit party (without a pact) causes serious damage for tories. FPTP means Labour would likely benefit.
With a pact hurts Labour - maybe helps them for 1 election but then they’ve created a base for brexit party who will squeeze their voter base from the right going forward- eliminating the long term advantage they have compared to Labour (who face similar issue from lib dems to the left)

So huge problems either way.

Joe_ Public

is_that_so wrote: »

I'd see a national unity government or coalition, excluding the Torys as an option post-election.

Depending on the numbers, i'd see that as possibly the only realistic option alright. Not that it would be in any way straightforward. I think part of the Cummings masterplan is a conviction in the opposition being unable to get it together when it comes to any form of alliance and time may well prove him right on that.

Joe_ Public

Heard Andrew Bridgen on one of the channels this morning, sky i think, stating that they should just go out "on a Gatt 24 exit". I've lost count of the number of times he personally has been corrected on that blatant falsehood but still he flagrantly trots it out at every available opportunity. Just shameless some of these people.