Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

Before Johnson comes back with a clear majority, will the Conservatives go to the country pledging No-deal in their manifesto? If not then it seems unlikely Farage will do an electoral pact with them, and if they do then they will struggle to get a majority I would have thought, only a fairly small majority of the public support no-deal.

Kermit.de.frog

Cummings should be frog marched out of Downing Street. This coming from senior Tory elders!

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1169237425568342018

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Before Johnson comes back with a clear majority, will the Conservatives go to the country pledging No-deal in their manifesto? If not then it seems unlikely Farage will do an electoral pact with them, and if they do then they will struggle to get a majority I would have thought, only a fairly small majority of the public support no-deal.

How many of them would rather a No Deal Brexit than Corbyn in No. 10 though.

Such an intractable mess.

ToBeFrank123

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No, once he requests the extension, Brexit Party support rises, and Labour become the largest party.

You realise that the Brexit Party are as likely to take votes from Labour as Conservatives? And probably more from Labour in Labour Leave constituencies.

ath262

2nd reading vote - for 329 against 300

one more than yesterday

is_that_so

Saw this interesting stat on new voters. I wonder what effect it might have in an (inevitable) election?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/more-than-100000-people-apply-register-vote-youth-uk-general-election

cryptocurrency

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

trashcan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Cummings should be frog marched out of Downing Street. This coming from senior Tory elders!

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1169237425568342018

If there is any upside to all of this shenanigans it’s the spectacle of the Tory party tearing itself apart. Long may that continue.

is_that_so

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

And yet really nothing to follow here. Care to put a more discursive bent on this intemperate rant? UK pollster on after Boris Number 10 performance also suggested this is not likely to be a normal election and is very difficult to call.

quokula

Possibilities in an election:

1) Large Conservative majority

Boris loses the ability to blame parliament for no deal so actually engages with the EU properly. Without dependency on DUP they can put the border down the Irish sea, with that change and with a majority large enough that he's not beholden to the ERG (who will vote down anything), the deal should be ratified.

2) Labour government

With SNP, Alliance, Plaid or Green support as needed. Maybe Lib Dem support if they swallow their pride and do the right thing. Withdrawal agreement is agreed with additional political declarations for a close relationship akin to EFTA. Return to responsible governance. Possible second referendum, possible remain.

3) Slim Conservative majority

A lot depends on whether DUP hold balance of power. Likely the same mess come January, but no recourse to another election again so Boris would need to try to take negotiations more seriously rather than trying to play political games. Would likely engage with EU more, but no deal would still be likely.


At least 2 out of those 3 cases are favourable for the EU, so it's worth giving them the time to see how it plays out.

VinLieger

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

Are you actually going to contribute to the thread by refuting anything youve just claimed with facts and evidence or is this just your usual drop in spout your inflammatory lies and nonsense, ignore any replies contradicting or attempting to discuss your post until you rinse and repeat to do the exact same thing again in a few hours/days?

Fionn1952

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

Haven't you been predicting the imminence of the EU folding and giving the British everything they want for the entire duration of these threads?

prawnsambo

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

You realise that the Brexit Party are as likely to take votes from Labour as Conservatives? And probably more from Labour in Labour Leave constituencies.

I actually don't believe so. They'd have to be polling at a much higher rate than they currently are. The last YouGov poll extrapolated gave them zero seats. That's the reality of FPTP, only the big boys get seats.

Enzokk

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

So the extension until January Bill gets passed. Johnson requests an extension from the EU after failing to agree a new deal. Labour and Conservatives agree to an election. Johnson comes back with a clear majority.

And the cycle begins again with Johnson threatening No Deal in January.

It would depend what is in the manifestos and if he wins on no-deal and so be it. Then they leave without a deal on 40% of the popular vote.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

Let's see if you remember, what was the opinion polls like before May had her inspiration to go for an election? Are you happy and 100% certain that history will not repeat itself? How is the Tories on the economy these days? How about the record on health and NHS funding?

trellheim

Reminder . Debate on the bill still live in Commons TV

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a91e27e8-e525-4703-aaeb-036189f4caed

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

Reminder . Debate on the bill still live in Commons TV

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/a91e27e8-e525-4703-aaeb-036189f4caed

For other links I see there are a few channels on youtube that has it as well, in case the parliament TV link goes down like it does sometimes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbW6bu32tMA - Telegraph link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGxY-nC3E3M - Guardian link

kalych

prawnsambo wrote: »

I actually don't believe so. They'd have to be polling at a much higher rate than they currently are. The last YouGov poll extrapolated gave them zero seats. That's the reality of FPTP, only the big boys get seats.

May I suggest that the issue is not about TBP winning seats at all it's about taking 5-10% of the Concervative party vote in most constituencies, splitting the vote and thus giving either LibDems/Lab/Greens the seat. It's actually much worse for the Cons than TBP winning seats.

Kermit.de.frog

What time is vote this evening?

is_that_so

Expected at 7 I believe.

Joe_ Public

kalych wrote: »

May I suggest that the issue is not about TBP winning seats at all it's about taking 5-10% of the Concervative party vote in most constituencies, splitting the vote and thus giving either LibDems/Lab/Greens the seat. It's actually much worse for the Cons than TBP winning seats.

But what exactly is in it for TBP in helping remain/2nd referendum parties win seats? Surely the best strategy for Farage is to start targeting seats, labour and conservative, and win as many as possible instead of the scattergun run candidates in every constituency approach he seems to be favouring. Personally i think he's a bad electioneer and wont run a good campaign, even though the lessons of his ukip days should be standing to him.

L1011

cryptocurrency wrote: »

There is posts on here claiming the labour government would win elections and some claiming national unity governments without the tories...It is like being in a parallel universe with people who don't have the first idea on what is going on and just spout a wishlist.


Please try and follow it.

You have either zero grasp on reality or somehow believe that by repeating this it may come true; and where some believe in there being a plan despite everything falling apart is required.

You have a username connected to the biggest Ponzi scheme of modern times, to which both viewpoints also apply. So I really can't figure it out.

trellheim

Current stars of Brexit Journalism ( add these folks to your twitter but you're watching them anyway)

Tony Connelly (RTE )
Peter Foster (Telegraph)
Faisal Islam (BBC )
in joint 4th place
Tom Newton Dunn (Sun ) and Beth Rigby (Sky News)

Miles behind
Katya Adler (BBC for the EU)
Laura Kuenssberg (much more Miriam Lord from the Irish Times)

On the Brexit Side
Guido Fawkes but its a difficult read

trellheim

Nikki Da Costa's job title on twitter changed to Ex-director of legislative affairs although it looks like no-one's picked up on it yet.

MadYaker

In terms of brexit and it effects on Ireland the tories sweeping an election might not be a bad thing for us. If they can cast the DUP aside an agreement can be reached much easier.

Roger_007

trellheim wrote: »

Current stars of Brexit Journalism ( add these folks to your twitter but you're watching them anyway)

Tony Connelly (RTE )
Peter Foster (Telegraph)
Faisal Islam (BBC )
in joint 4th place
Tom Newton Dunn (Sun ) and Beth Rigby (Sky News)

Miles behind
Katya Adler (BBC for the EU)
Laura Kuenssberg (much more Miriam Lord from the Irish Times)

On the Brexit Side
Guido Fawkes but its a difficult read

Whenever Laura Kuenssberg comes on the Daily Politics programme, she often tries to take over the role of Jo Coburn by quizzing the other panellists. I get the impression that Coburn is not amused.

FrancieBrady

European press reaction is not good. One wonders how the EU are viewing it all and the point, if any, of granting an extension.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/fighting-for-survival-european-papers-maul-johnson-after-defeat?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1b3ekot7vnT7ROuiiYJ85mNQ7znsWHiDGSEQ64pXtU0Jzk9Qun_raBnqo#Echobox=1567583816

endacl

prawnsambo wrote: »

The whitewashing of Winston Churchill is similar. His career in Afghanistan, Kenya and India (not to mention the black and tans) is a litany of war crimes and excesses.

Indeed. Saddam Hussein wasn’t the first to use chemical weapons against the Kurds...

cryptocurrency

Roger_007 wrote: »

Whenever Laura Kuenssberg comes on the Daily Politics programme, she often tries to take over the role of Jo Coburn by quizzing the other panellists. I get the impression that Coburn is not amused.

Thing is if you follow that list for any amount of time you will realise they don't have any idea and only react to news. They offer nothing new except guido which at least publishes firsts.

igCorcaigh

FrancieBrady wrote: »

European press reaction is not good. One wonders how the EU are viewing it all and the point, if any, of granting an extension.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/fighting-for-survival-european-papers-maul-johnson-after-defeat?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1b3ekot7vnT7ROuiiYJ85mNQ7znsWHiDGSEQ64pXtU0Jzk9Qun_raBnqo#Echobox=1567583816

Listening to a podcast last night, the possibility was raised of Johnson asking an EU country (eg Hungary) to block the request for an extension. So he could still force through a No Deal.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/Alex_Negueruela/status/1169265030287810561

Honestly, the only good to come of this photo are the countless memes being produced.

Mods, I hope this is ok to post, might lighten up the mood in here.