Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Tell me how

He's on track to fall short of even Neville Chamberlain's European performance at this point.

Can see them try to blame impact of a No Deal on EU intransigence and bitterness.

We could be heading in to a very acrimonious time.

BonnieSituation

Tell me how wrote: »

He's on track to fall short of even Neville Chamberlain's European performance at this point.

Can see them try to blame impact of a No Deal on EU intransigence and bitterness.

We could be heading in to a very acrimonious time.

We're all just browned off at them at this stage.

It's the same interminable bluster. They need it to hurt.

J Mysterio

Apparently 40 Tory MP's now supporting Hammond-Gauke in opposition to No Deal Brexit.
Oooh. Not enough.

Enzokk

Here is an interesting comment piece on Corbyn and his Brexit stance.

Jeremy Corbyn’s latest Brexit strategy: I don’t care about Brexit and neither should you

No article on Jeremy Corbyn and Brexit can begin in earnest without referring back to April 2016, when he launched his party’s referendum campaign by telling his audience they were inside a building that had once been used as the Ministry of Truth for a film version of George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four. He let out a half chuckle, cocked his head to one side, and with some jovial self-disdain said the words, “We shall see.”

It was an almost – almost – admirable way of acknowledging that he, an on the record Eurosceptic of three decades standing, now had no choice but to reluctantly lead his party’s Remain campaign; he knew and you knew that nothing he was about to say would be true, but it would all be over soon and then we could all just forget about it.

Three, shall we say unfortunate, years later, there is no point trying to understand anything Corbyn says about Brexit, without viewing it through the prism that all of it has always been a deception, not merely from day one, but from sentence one on day one.

This article has hit the spot for me on Corbyn. He is happy that they voted to leave as it is what he personally wanted, but he doesn't care either way as his plans can be done in or out of the EU. He wants people to now forget about Brexit in the next election, but he and his team has misjudged what people think.

I think that before 29 March 2019 he had a point and if the UK left with the WA he would have walked a new election on policies like austerity and the NHS. With the prospect of no-deal this has changed the landscape. Now it is only Brexit that needs to be sorted and any election pre or post the UK leaving will be dominated by Brexit. This is the reason why Labour will falter for me.

briany

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's the same interminable bluster. They need it to hurt.

I don't think there comes a point where it would hurt badly enough that your true blue Brexiteer turns around and goes, "Actually, yeah, this was all a bit stupid..."

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

I don't think there comes a point where it would hurt badly enough that your true blue Brexiteer turns around and goes, "Actually, yeah, this was all a bit stupid..."

No, that will never happen. Although we have seen quite a change in the bluster from many of them.

At this point they are down to arguing that it is all somehow the EU's fault and that far from going it alone they are running cap in hand to Trump and the basis that he will ignore the rules and procedures in his own democratic system in order to give them something to show that their own ignoring of HoC sovereignty was really worth it.

Listen carefully to the language used by Gove in relation to the Yellowhammer leak. He didn't claim it was false, only that it was 'old'. He didn't claim the outcomes were outrageous and impossible, just that they were worst case.

Of course the key question he should have been asked was why, given he has been in cabinet the whole time, had he not come out completely against no deal during the leaders election?

So they won't ever admit to being wrong, just that circumstances may have changed. Be that intransigence of the EU, Dems in the US blocking a trade deal, worldwide recession, climate change, Russia, Gold prices, caring for the poor etc.

BonnieSituation

briany wrote: »

I don't think there comes a point where it would hurt badly enough that your true blue Brexiteer turns around and goes, "Actually, yeah, this was all a bit stupid..."

But we can't be helped to have pity on them though.

At least this way there's a chance they'll get at least comeuppance.

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

Problem is at this time the chances are very high that this would end up being leaked in some form as Boris (and UK) have had bonfires with what ever goodwill they had in the first place. And even if he and the government denies it the seeds will be planted and of course the UK newspapers will warn him of the consequences on going back etc.

Yeah, I doubt he would. He's just as capable of bluster and waffle and walking away leaving everyone scratching their heads. Nothing is going to happen on the EU side in any case, seeing that the handover to the new commission is due to happen on 1st November. They'll just point to Tusk's letter after the extension was granted and tell him not to waste any more time. Much more useful for Johnson to come back and talk about intransigence and no deal being forced on him. There's definitely a narrative of the reluctant but determined no-dealer about everything he says.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

Johnson is quite capable of turning up to his meetings with Macron and Merkel (and even in his phone call to Leo) and telling them to ignore the letter, that it's only for internal consumption to make him look good to the brexiters so he can win a majority and get the WA passed. And he'll be using that line to try and get some change. I've always suspected that the change he wants is the original NI only backstop. Which he can only get with a majority. But it solves all his problems and opens the way for GB to diverge towards the US. NI can stay in the EU for all he cares.

Edit: All the no-deal planning and leaks have been done to frighten people and pave the way for a super duper special, only Boris could deliver it, unicorn filled agreement.

He could absolutely do this but why would they trust him at this stage? To do something like this requires a level of trust that the UK have burned completely away in the last 3 years.

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

He could absolutely do this but why would they trust him at this stage? To do something like this requires a level of trust that the UK have burned completely away in the last 3 years.

It actually doesn't matter if they trust him or not. This is just another example of the UK negotiating with itself. Which is what the problem has been since day one. He either delivers an agreed WA or he doesn't.

Water John

A few people not able to secure their meds, would very quickly change perceptions in the UK.

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

I don't think there comes a point where it would hurt badly enough that your true blue Brexiteer turns around and goes, "Actually, yeah, this was all a bit stupid..."

Seems to be it.

There are huge swathes of the UK population who 'believe in Brexit'. For them, they want to prove that the UK is great, and so to quit on the Brexit mission would be a failure and an admission that the UK is not great. So, it's a great nationalist, patriotic project and it must go ahead.

Anything that is anti-Brexit is therefore anti-UK. This is why Remainers are Remoaners and they don't believe in Britain. They probably don't support the armed forces either.

These fools have been created by the Tories and they are not now going away. These genie's can not be put back in the bottle. Tories have effectively created their own Tea Party style supporters and they will infect UK politics for the foreseeable future, like a cancer.

Nody

J Mysterio wrote: »

Seems to be it.

There are huge swathes of the UK population who 'believe in Brexit'. For them, they want to prove that the UK is great, and so to quit on the Brexit mission would be a failure and an admission that the UK is not great. So, it's a great nationalist, patriotic project and it must go ahead.

Anything that is anti-Brexit is therefore anti-UK. This is why Remainers are Remoaners and they don't believe in Britain. They probably don't support the armed forces either.

These fools have been created by the Tories and they are not now going away. These genie's can not be put back in the bottle. Tories have effectively created their own Tea Party style supporters and they will infect UK politics for the foreseeable future, like a cancer.

I think a smart Tory PM will turn this around in the future (decade+) as a way to rejoin EU. The message will be along the lines of UK is great and hence we're destined to show our great leadership by steering EU in the right direction. We'll join them and help them get out of their rut and grow on the world stage with our brilliant leadership. It will not only be a blessing to them but will enable us to wield even more power and influence etc.

In short they are not rejoining because things went to **** (actual reason) but because EU really needs them and their leadership. It's really UK doing EU a favor because they are so magnanimous. Not something you can sell in a day or directly after Brexit naturally but I think as a longer term project Tories could pull something like that off and hence offer Brexiteers a way out of the issue of Brexit was great but we'd really want to be in EU. They are not admitting fault; they are simply offering to help etc.

listermint

Anyone listen to Edwina Curry on Newstalk this morning. Its been a while since ive heard as much unadulterated factless bluster. All nonsense about being a trading nation going back hundreds of years so we understand trade. Nothing will change.

Oh and the usual Ireland needs Britain more than Britain needs ireland. Felt like punching the radio as it was such utter crap.

They're in for no deal, simple as that. And they will expect the EU to fix it for them once it all goes belly up. That is their plan front and center folks. Its their plan because the people making it will profit from it financially and they wont have to adhere to standards anymore their backers can do what they like.

Its no more complicated than financial greed for a select few.

Leroy42

I actually think that there are large parts of the UK that simply believe that everything will work itself out.

Even in my own group of friends, in Ireland, they are sick of me talking about Brexit (only partly due to Brexit!!). Most people simply cannot fathom how bog this really is. The vast majority of people have only ever known the EU, have only ever known open borders. Even those, like myself, with recollections of the NI border, it just seems so long and almost a different universe. Surely we won't be going back to those dark days, something, somehow will be done.

At that is why the IDS line of 11th hour cave is so useful. It allows people to put off having to invest any real time or effort into researching the reality on the basis that it would wasted time and effort given that nothing will change anyway. It allows reports like the Yellowhammer can be so easily dismissed. Don't worry about it, something wil work out.

trellheim

Remember folks

NO DEAL happens as we are right now - in 70 days UK are out without a deal - a huge move is required for any other outcome

ZeroThreat

The Brits don't need to worry too much in a worst case scenario anyway.

The government here can always organise some food airdrops if things get really bad.

Leroy42

trellheim wrote: »

Remember folks

NO DEAL happens as we are right now - in 70 days UK are out without a deal - a huge move is required for any other outcome

Unfortunately it is completely outside our control, save for giving up the entire EU project.

At the moment you have a HoC faced with a probable disaster economically but which many will opt for over the possibility of having JC in power.

Miliband, Starmer or basically any other Labour MP in charge would have probably gotten this whole thing stopped months ago. But such is the fear of JC that many Tories would rather opt for Crash out.

Igotadose

listermint wrote: »

Anyone listen to Edwina Curry on Newstalk this morning. Its been a while since ive heard as much unadulterated factless bluster. All nonsense about being a trading nation going back hundreds of years so we understand trade. Nothing will change.

Yesterday I heard newstalk in the a.m. with some nitwit Lord going on about how there's a milion people from the UK living in the US so there won't be a trade deal needed as the countries trade already. *sigh*. And how there will not be a recession (uh? there's one now) in the UK, the pounds not a basket case (no definitions given, of course), everything'll be fine, yadda yadda. Barely a breath from the reporter. That's the worst of it, heaps of endless unmitigated bs, no challenge from the media whatsoever. Not even the *Irish* media, no excuse for that.

Quin_Dub

VinLieger wrote: »

He could absolutely do this but why would they trust him at this stage? To do something like this requires a level of trust that the UK have burned completely away in the last 3 years.

prawnsambo wrote: »

It actually doesn't matter if they trust him or not. This is just another example of the UK negotiating with itself. Which is what the problem has been since day one. He either delivers an agreed WA or he doesn't.

Exactly - This isn't negotiation , it's just spin for the masses..

The exact text of the suggested backstop replacement is this

I propose that the backstop should be replaced with a commitment to put in place such arrangements as far as possible before the end of the transition period, as part of the future relationship.

"a commitment to put in place such arrangements as far as possible before the end of the transition period"

Or put more simply , we'll do our best but in the event of us finding absolutely no solution whatsoever , we're still moving on"

So replace a legally binding requirement with "We promise we'll try our hardest" ??

Who on earth would find that even worthy of a response??

It's a campaign poster for Boris , nothing more.

But Farage is already banging the "No Deal is the best deal" drum

Mr Johnson wrote to EU Council President Donald Tusk last night calling for the “anti-democratic” backstop to be replaced with an alternative arrangement to avoid a hard Irish border. But Mr Farage hit out at the Prime Minister on Twitter after the letter was released. The Brexit Party leader said: “Even without the backstop, this is still the worst 'deal' in history.”

trellheim

Exactly - This isn't negotiation , it's just spin for the masses..

beg to differ, looks like the ERG are onside with this , Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker conspicuous by their silence here whereas previous there would have been furore from that quarter. e.g ECJ oversight and rule taking for the next few years

Remember for many (in the UK political sphere) EU does not matter its purely a proxy war against Labour and the Brexit party , they genuinely do not see it in any other light.

Sam Russell

Just a quote from David McWilliams article in the FT cited in earlier posts:

Ireland buys more from Britain because Ireland is much richer. Rich people buy stuff. On a conservative estimate, the Irish are now over 25 per cent richer than their UK counterparts. Irish income per capita rose from €13,934 in 1995 to €40,655 in 2018 — growth of 192 per cent. In contrast, UK income per capita rose from £21,716 in 1995 to £30,594 in 2018 — growth of roughly 41 per cent. Ireland is growing nearly five times faster than the UK every year.

If you use the exchange rate of Aug 2015 (70p = €1) then the UK income of £30,594 translates to €43,705, so almost exactly the same. Now £30,594 translates as €33,509 @ 91.3p = €1, which shows just how much the UK person has lost due to the fall in the value of the GBP since the Brexit nonsense started.

Dyr

ZeroThreat wrote: »

The Brits don't need to worry too much in a worst case scenario anyway.

The government here can always organise some food airdrops if things get really bad.

I'm worried about how we stop refugees from crossing the Irish sea, we need to control our border

I'm sure they'll understand

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1163757521582116864

Tusk has responded. Nothing new.

Quin_Dub

trellheim wrote: »

beg to differ, looks like the ERG are onside with this , Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker conspicuous by their silence here whereas previous there would have been furore from that quarter. e.g ECJ oversight and rule taking for the next few years

Remember for many (in the UK political sphere) EU does not matter its purely a proxy war against Labour and the Brexit party , they genuinely do not see it in any other light.

Don't think we're disagreeing here really

The purpose of this is to win over Brexit Party voters and secure a majority for the Tories - The ERG will support those actions.

But it is absolutely categorically not a genuine attempt to negotiate with the EU.

If it was , the ERG might actually respond, but they are keeping quiet because they know that the EU won't bite , as Tusks tweet just confirms.

prawnsambo

Quin_Dub wrote: »

"a commitment to put in place such arrangements as far as possible before the end of the transition period"

Or put more simply , we'll do our best but in the event of us finding absolutely no solution whatsoever , we're still moving on"

So replace a legally binding requirement with "We promise we'll try our hardest" ??

Who on earth would find that even worthy of a response??

It's a campaign poster for Boris , nothing more.

There are a couple of things of note in that letter. The first is the commitment to no infrastructure on the border. There's been a bit snipped from the joint declaration of December 2017 which says:

The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls.

But Johnson's letter has added the words "at the border" and left out the word 'related'.

The other thing of note is his promise to "look at" what commitments might help if the 'alternative arrangements' aren't in place by the end of the transition. A not very subtle attempt to shift the responsibility for such commitments to the EU.

ZeroThreat

Nody wrote: »

I think a smart Tory PM will turn this around in the future (decade+) as a way to rejoin EU. The message will be along the lines of UK is great and hence we're destined to show our great leadership by steering EU in the right direction. We'll join them and help them get out of their rut and grow on the world stage with our brilliant leadership. It will not only be a blessing to them but will enable us to wield even more power and influence etc.

In short they are not rejoining because things went to **** (actual reason) but because EU really needs them and their leadership. It's really UK doing EU a favor because they are so magnanimous. Not something you can sell in a day or directly after Brexit naturally but I think as a longer term project Tories could pull something like that off and hence offer Brexiteers a way out of the issue of Brexit was great but we'd really want to be in EU. They are not admitting fault; they are simply offering to help etc.

I hope that if in the future they seek to rejoin the EU with that attitude they're given a polite but firm Foxtrot Oscar!

murphaph

trellheim wrote: »

beg to differ, looks like the ERG are onside with this , Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker conspicuous by their silence here whereas previous there would have been furore from that quarter. e.g ECJ oversight and rule taking for the next few years

Remember for many (in the UK political sphere) EU does not matter its purely a proxy war against Labour and the Brexit party , they genuinely do not see it in any other light.

Johnson will have sat down with the ERG hardliners and said "lads, you just need to pretend that you would be able to sign up for the WA if only that undemocratic backstop was removed and I will ask in vain for its removal and we will face no deal but it will look like the EU are at fault". Something like that anyway to get the ERG to pipe down about the fact they hate the whole WA.

I still think Johnson only has one viable path to take now. GE at the last minute, possibly even directly after crash out but before implications are felt widely. Neutralise the DUP by regaining a solid majority (Brexit party are dead once Brexit has actually happened) and ask the EU for an FTA based more or less on the NI only backstop.

No deal and no FTA with the EU (and the US based on what senior US politicians are saying) means the UK would collapse, like really collapse.

Nody

On a different thread as I'm not a football fan but how do you all think Joe down the pub will react to the fact his favorite football team have to sell off some of their big names? The impact will go downwards as well as the English clubs will look at poaching players to fill the existing gaps as well from lower leagues creating a chain effect and of course the cost of players will go up (I can't see many players accepting GBP contracts for example).

Tell me how

Gintonious wrote: »

Tusk has responded. Nothing new.

Actually, I think the last 2 sentences are quite forcibly written to be unequivocal that Johnson et al are lying.