Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

devnull wrote: »

We'll be back here for another vote via a simple majority vote in a day or two I think, he'll keep trying various ways to force an election before the bill gets through the Lords.

Seemingly a short bill, of the kind needed to set aside the Fixed Term Parliament Act will be amendable and the opposition, who command a majority, can tack on whatever they want to the motion before voting on it. A atempt at a simple majority vote might backfire on Johnson to an even greater extent than his futile efforts thus far. The man is clearly in over his head.

declanflynn

bilston wrote: »

Impressive consistency from Johnson.

3 votes
3 defeats

That must be a record

piplip87

Ward J. Littell wrote: »

I think the poster was being sarcastic.

While Labour want an election they cannot vote for one this time as BJ can then change the date of the election until after the 31st of October and therefore crash into a No deal Brexit.

Voting against the election gives the impression that they want BJ to stay in power so they abstain

devnull

Best chance of Tories now is getting the bill talked out.

However if it gets Royal approval and then there's an election, when would the first sitting of Parliament be after that at the earliest? I assume thy wouldn't have time to quickly pass a vote to get rid of the bill.

Frank Bullitt

Gintonious wrote: »

Labour abstained.

Cummings really is a master at work.

Just letting people know, I was joking here...just in case.

lawred2

Gintonious wrote: »

Just letting people know, I was joking here...just in case.

I knew

Itssoeasy

theguzman wrote: »

I have been away from the thread and wasn't reading much into what happened today, the HoC has passed a motion to avoid a No-Deal Brexit and is refusing to vote for a General Election? Is this correct? Will Boris go to the EU and accept Theresa May's deal after all? Or is No-Deal Brexit still a possibility and if so how might it come about?

Yes. Well it has to pass the HOL before it comes into action. The fixed term act while making the process of calling a GE not as straight forward as it was, it does still give the PM of the day the power to control the date of the GE. Labour don't want to give BJ that power before the no deal brexit bill has gotten Royal Assent.

Sardonicat

Sardonicat wrote: »

Would someone explain to me why so many abstentions?

The bill needed 66.6% of all MPs to pass, even if they all went home the government couldn't win.

Thargor

This is too funny, Mays deal manages to sneak in for another vote:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169317929520963584

For those confused:

The division was cancelled because when a division is called, a few minutes later the Speaker (or in this case, the Chairman of Ways and Means) asks the question again. Usually, the tellers for Ayes and Noes respond for their respective sides, but the tellers for the Noes were nowhere to be seen. So, the vote went to the Ayes.

theguzman

piplip87 wrote: »

While Labour want an election they cannot vote for one this time as BJ can then change the date of the election until after the 31st of October and therefore crash into a No deal Brexit.

Voting against the election gives the impression that they want BJ to stay in power so they abstain

Could Boris go to the Queen and she sack either him or the Parliament to trigger an election? However if that happened presumably Boris would be unable to dictate the election date and preventing him from using it to defacto crash out?

hometruths

devnull wrote: »

Best chance of Tories now is getting the bill talked out.

However if it gets Royal approval and then there's an election, when would the first sitting of Parliament be after that at the earliest? I assume thy wouldn't have time to quickly pass a vote to get rid of the bill.

I'd say Johnson will be asking Tory peers not to filibuster, get royal assent asap, and ask Corbyn again for the election on the 15th.

Currently the only way he can deliver on his promise to leave by October 31st is to try and win a majority on 15th - i.e before the EC summit on 17th.

Leroy42

schmittel wrote: »

‘they voted for article 50 therefore they’re hypocrites to oppose no deal’ is not the point I am making.

My point is that although they voted for Article 50, as members of parliament they have demonstrably failed to find a way of leaving, hard or soft of any flavour.

Ergo the only solution is to try and change the make up of the current members of parliament.

Vote a new lot in to find a solution, whether that is hard/soft or revoke.

Or another ref surely?

Parliament has spent 3 years trying to get a solution, and have become deadlocked. The obvious way out is to ask the people what they want. WA, No Deal or Revoke.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or another ref surely?

Parliament has spent 3 years trying to get a solution, and have become deadlocked. The obvious way out is to ask the people what they want. WA, No Deal or Revoke.

Parliament has killed no deal. It's either WA or revoke.

Leroy42

schmittel wrote: »

I'd say Johnson will be asking Tory peers not to filibuster, get royal assent asap, and ask Corbyn again for the election on the 15th.

Currently the only way he can deliver on his promise to leave by October 31st is to try and win a majority on 15th - i.e before the EC summit on 17th.

The major issue for Johnson now is time. Parliament is about to be suspended so he needs to rush to get anything through.

At it appears that Labour are in no rush to help him out.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

Parliament has killed no deal. It's either WA or revoke.

Unless there is a GE and Boris returns with a big majority.

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

Parliament has killed no deal. It's either WA or revoke.

Well this parliament has, I agree. But I think if you are going to put it back to the people, on the basis that HoC is deadlocked, you cannot then say one option is removed.

Sam Russell

schmittel wrote: »

I'd say Johnson will be asking Tory peers not to filibuster, get royal assent asap, and ask Corbyn again for the election on the 15th.

Currently the only way he can deliver on his promise to leave by October 31st is to try and win a majority on 15th - i.e before the EC summit on 17th.

Of course, once Parliament is prorogued which happens Monday (IIRC), then there can be no calling election till after the Queens speech, so election would be after the 31st of October, and the bill would become law and require him to get an extension - so no crash out.

He is snookered whatever he does because Parliament is shut down. Not quite what they wanted. Cummings and game theory.

[Throwing the chicken out the window is not a winning strategy in any game].

Water John

'The prime minister along with the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, SNP Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, Jess Phillips and Dominic Grieve will be on Peston in a bit. Should be fun.' Guardian

Will Johnson be on with Peston?

Ken Clarke filleting Johnson in the HOC, is worth seeing.

Leroy42

Thargor wrote: »

This is too funny, Mays deal manages to sneak in for another vote:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1169317929520963584

Just on that LK tweet. Imagine putting out such a naive statement like that. Did she do any digging into what happened? Did she actually try to talk to anybody from the government about how they would make such a 'mistake'?

Itssoeasy

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well this parliament has, I agree. But I think if you are going to put it back to the people, on the basis that HoC is deadlocked, you cannot then say one option is removed.

Well no deal happening on October 31st is getting very slim. But honestly would having a GE change anything to the point where it got this mess sorted one way or another ? Isn't a parliament meant to represent the people of the country it sits in ?

Leroy42

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well no deal happening on October 31st is getting very slim. But honestly would having a GE change anything to the point where it got this mess sorted one way or another ? Isn't a parliament meant to represent the people of the country it sits in ?

It is, and that is why it is hopelessly lost on the whole BRexit issue. It has no real idea what it wants.

it perfectly reflects the country.

hometruths

Sam Russell wrote: »

Of course, once Parliament is prorogued which happens Monday (IIRC), then there can be no calling election till after the Queens speech, so election would be after the 31st of October, and the bill would become law and require him to get an extension - so no crash out.

He is snookered whatever he does because Parliament is shut down. Not quite what they wanted. Cummings and game theory.

[Throwing the chicken out the window is not a winning strategy in any game].

I agree time is against him, which is why I think he should offer MPs that he will ask for an extension on the condition that they approve an election on the 15th.

I think his strategy of convincing MPs he was mad enough to go for no deal worked a little too well in as far as they now think he is deranged enough to change agreed dates of a GE in order to sneak in a no deal!

hometruths

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well no deal happening on October 31st is getting very slim. But honestly would having a GE change anything to the point where it got this mess sorted one way or another ? Isn't a parliament meant to represent the people of the country it sits in ?

If Johnson can win enough of a majority to ditch the DUP I think he would go for customs border down the Irish Sea - he could get approval pretty quickly from the EU and I also think he would get it through parliament also.

BluePlanet

Are Labour basically forcing BoJo into the massive humiliation of having to ask the EU for an extension?
Surely he falls on his own sword first?

Leroy42

schmittel wrote: »

I agree time is against him, which is why I think he should offer MPs that he will ask for an extension on the condition that they approve an election on the 15th.

I think his strategy of convincing MPs he was mad enough to go for no deal worked a little too well in as far as they now think he is deranged enough to change agreed dates of a GE in order to sneak in a no deal!

They don't trust him. There is nothing to stop him winning the election and then revoking the legislation demanding and extension and going No Deal.

Of course he would need to win a majority, but it is a material risk and thus they would be, imo, mad to give it to him.

Mr.Nice Guy

I'm not sure there is an appetite amongst the majority of the UK electorate for another extension.

People are fed up, and many seem to be under the mistaken impression that if Brexit takes place without a deal, that's the end of the issue. The fact that 'No Deal' is really 'No deal for now' as David McWilliams puts it hasn't really sunk in.

If Johnson goes to the public with a message of 'Let's get this done and move on' I think that is likely to resonate with a lot of voters. If the original Brexit vote has taught us anything it's that the UK electorate doesn't tend to be interested in the details.

Bit cynical

BluePlanet wrote: »

Are Labour basically forcing BoJo into the massive humiliation of having to ask the EU for an extension?
Surely he falls on his own sword first?

Yes he would probably have to resign if it came to it. Can't see him asking for an extension.

Leroy42

schmittel wrote: »

If Johnson can win enough of a majority to ditch the DUP I think he would go for customs border down the Irish Sea - he could get approval pretty quickly from the EU and I also think he would get it through parliament also.

He could do that tomorrow if he wanted.

The Benn amendment does not preclude him from striking a deal, Johnson line is that it removes any pressure on the EU to do that. But he could agree to NI backstop (the EU I think would be happy with that as it was the original deal) and put that to the house.

He would almost certainly get enough votes to get it through. But he would probably be forced to resign as he based his entire last few years, and he run to leader of the Tories, on not agreeing with the WA.

And therein lies the real issue. His is really all about Johnson, just as the division under TM were all about her and her attempt to keep only the ERG and DUP happy. If either of them took a "best for UK" approach it is actually a relatively simply issue to resolve.

hometruths

Leroy42 wrote: »

They don't trust him. There is nothing to stop him winning the election and then revoking the legislation demanding and extension and going No Deal.

Of course he would need to win a majority, but it is a material risk and thus they would be, imo, mad to give it to him.

If he campaigns on leaving Deal or No Deal by October 31st and wins a majority strong enough to do the above surely that is perfectly OK?

Any MP who essentially thinks that they would be mad to give him the chance to seek a mandate from the electorate and then subsequently carry out that mandate ought not to be an MP in the first place!

MikeSoys

if the queen ratifies the blocking of the no deal.. no deal cant happen as its law?