Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

Telegraph tomorrow saying the EU commission has doubled down on the backstop insisting not one letter is going to change.

(paywalled)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/04/european-commission-doubles-irish-backstop-no-deal-brexit-plan/#comments

hometruths

Leroy42 wrote: »

He could do that tomorrow if he wanted.

The Benn amendment does not preclude him from striking a deal, Johnson line is that it removes any pressure on the EU to do that. But he could agree to NI backstop (the EU I think would be happy with that as it was the original deal) and put that to the house.

He would almost certainly get enough votes to get it through. But he would probably be forced to resign as he based his entire last few years, and he run to leader of the Tories, on not agreeing with the WA.

And therein lies the real issue. His is really all about Johnson, just as the division under TM were all about her and her attempt to keep only the ERG and DUP happy. If either of them took a "best for UK" approach it is actually a relatively simply issue to resolve.

He'd spin his version of the WA well enough to save face.

I am not sure he would get it through the house tomorrow as a good chunk of the ERG would be against it.

And I think his No Deal mania is designed to bully MPs rather than the EU. He could lose the ERG but get enough opposition MPs if the choice they face is vote for my WA or it is No Deal.

As long as they can force PMs (of whatever party/ideology) to ask for extensions none of them will vote for anything!

An Ciarraioch

David Gauke expelled from Conservative Party altogether:

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1169357420726030336

hometruths

MikeSoys wrote: »

if the queen ratifies the blocking of the no deal.. no deal cant happen as its law?

As the EU are fond of pointing out until they are blue (and yellow!) in the face the only way to avoid No Deal is to either vote for a deal or revoke article 50.

sdanseo

MikeSoys wrote: »

if the queen ratifies the blocking of the no deal.. no deal cant happen as its law?

Lords has to vote on bill preventing no deal. If they pass it before prorogation, No deal is off the table, Boris's position is utterly untenable and a General Election is imminent.
If they don't pass it, we are back to an Election but you would imagine Boris' position would still be untenable. 1922 might have to be reconvened but in the sort term you would have a lame duck wielding executive power, a very dangerous situation.

My question is, if the above occurs, and Conservatives even without Boris won the election, the law could be changed by an incoming Parliament before 31st October? How soon can HOC sit and create a new Bill after an election result is announced?

Talk of QEII sacking Boris or putting her foot in the middle of a constitutional crisis with some outrageous intervention are absolute madness, the only exception being if the PM decided to completely ignore an Act of Parliament and break the law in which case she could possibly act to maintain the status quo.

maebee

Beth Rugby on Sky news saying that BoJo's ruthlessness knows no bounds. The "What it says in the papers" slot coming on now. Always a must watch when Kevin Maguire and Andrew Pierce are the contributors.

Bit cynical

Leroy42 wrote: »

He could do that tomorrow if he wanted.

The Benn amendment does not preclude him from striking a deal, Johnson line is that it removes any pressure on the EU to do that. But he could agree to NI backstop (the EU I think would be happy with that as it was the original deal) and put that to the house.

Probably a bit late for that now, but under what basis would the UK (minus NI) trade with the EU on the 1st November on this deal?

Degag

Akrasia wrote: »

Boris Johnson thinks the leader of the opposition is Marty McFly and he can get him to do anything by calling him a chicken if he doesn’t

Most of his party colleagues essentially had the same argument all evening.

Schoolkids would be embarrassed to use such tactics!

boggerman1

maebee wrote: »

Beth Rugby on Sky news saying that BoJo's ruthlessness knows no bounds. The "What it says in the papers" slot coming on now. Always a must watch when Kevin Maguire and Andrew Pierce are the contributors.

Pierce is hopping mad that the U.K. Is still in the EU.great watch

Harry Palmr

Good to see Master of Disaster Dominic Cummings is getting more and more attention for his catastrophising (is that even a word?) of a crisis. This year zero stuff is utterly reckless, and an unwelcome import from the Toxic States of America, as chlorinated chicken will be.

Headshot

It would be smart move if Labour vote for a GE in November where BJ have to go to Europe before hand and ask for an extension.

It would be humiliating to BJ and a nail in his coffin

Limpy

Cornering the PM will backfire. His party were all but sitting ducks, but he now has purged the remainers and can go to the people with a clear mandate. Vote Leave or it's Corbyn.

lola85

The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.

Headshot

There's a vid on standard webpage with Kens stinger on BJ

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-votes-result-boris-johnson-suffers-double-commons-defeat-as-mps-back-bill-to-block-nodeal-and-a4229321.html

4068ac1elhodqr

Odds (avg) to win in their Next GE

Tory: 1.4
Lab: 3.75 (short)
TBP: 19
LD: 18

If the option presents itself again in the days ahead, can see Labour doing well, by absorbing the 48% remainers.
Might the LD even seek to join in coalition purely on the sole issue of Brexit.

Couple of other big issues the dismal HS2 delays (2031 eta), and £88bn down the drain so far.
Labour keen on x3 regional UBI trails and the 4-day work week: £288bn cost, but plenty of taxes for the rich to pay for this.

FrancieBrady

Can someone explain the deal it's been 'whispered'(according to Newsnight) that Boris might offer Corbyn?

prawnsambo

Headshot wrote: »

There's a vid on standard webpage with Kens stinger on BJ

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-votes-result-boris-johnson-suffers-double-commons-defeat-as-mps-back-bill-to-block-nodeal-and-a4229321.html

Or you can watch it here. Clarke really does have a way with words.

Water John

I presume offering a free pass in the HOL of the Benn Bill in return for a GE on Oct 14th.

cryptocurrency

Interesting question raised on Tom Swarbick on LBC just now where it was asked what is stopping Boris bringing forward his porogue tomorrow and none could say it could not be done but noted that it would trigger a vote of no confidence in him...which would trigger an election.

Now they are talking about the tories triggering a vote of no confidence in themselves ...strange times indeed

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can someone explain the deal it's been 'whispered'(according to Newsnight) that Boris might offer Corbyn?

I wouldn't put much store in it, but it seems like stop the filibuster in the Lords and Corbyn gets an election in late October. But it's the BBC who seem; rather than have journalists, have people who are willing and useful leak conduits.

prawnsambo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Interesting question raised on Tom Swarbick on LBC just now where it was asked what is stopping Boris bringing forward his porogue tomorrow and none could say it could not be done but noted that it would trigger a vote of no confidence in him...which would trigger an election

Because he can't. The Queen allowed specific dates. He'd have to go back to have it changed. I think she'd set the corgis on him. Or Philip in his Range Rover. Or both.

cryptocurrency

prawnsambo wrote: »

Because he can't. The Queen allowed specific dates. He'd have to go back to have it changed. I think she'd set the corgis on him. Or Philip in his Range Rover. Or both.

now they are talking about tories triggering a no confidence vote themselves

prawnsambo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

now they are talking about tories triggering a no confidence vote themselves

Imagine if Johnson lost (won) a vote of no confidence that he proposed himself. The ultimate mark of failure.

sdanseo

cryptocurrency wrote: »

now they are talking about tories triggering a no confidence vote themselves

prawnsambo wrote: »

Imagine if Johnson lost a vote of no confidence that he proposed himself. The ultimate mark of failure.

As much money as I'd love to pay to see that - they're desperate so let them squirm.

The mad irony being that they would probably still win an election based on an antique method of voting that, despite being antique, just over half the world (granted most of them faux democracies) still insist on using.

Madness.

awec

Losing a vote of no confidence doesn't automatically trigger an election if I remember right.

Ronin247

Would everyone else vote confidence in Boris and he wins by 329 to 300?. Now that wouldbe funny. Libdem, labour,SNP all voting confidence in him and the conservatives voting against him.

Infini

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1168949410832797697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1168949410832797697&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fczji4b%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dtrue

Posted on reddit.com/r/brexit

Pretty much sums ups Boris's attitude, he's only interested in smashing the place with no interest in the collateral damage or lives it could cost.

prawnsambo

awec wrote: »

Losing a vote of no confidence doesn't automatically trigger an election if I remember right.

I think it just gives that option to the government of the day. But Westminster is such an archaic institution, it's hard to know facts from conjecture. It's currently Wednesday in the House of Lords. If the filibuster continues tomorrow, it will still be Wednesday. In fact it can be Wednesday all week if they continue. Until they say otherwise. In the face of that insanity, what's a VoNC?

prawnsambo

Infini wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1168949410832797697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1168949410832797697&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fczji4b%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dtrue

Posted on reddit.com/r/brexit

Pretty much sums ups Boris's attitude, he's only interested in smashing the place with no interest in the collateral damage or lives it could cost.

And they're in Brussels drinking coffee or something. They're definitely not negotiating anything. Pretty blunt assessment from Philipe Lamberts.

Infini

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/more-than-100000-people-apply-register-vote-youth-uk-general-election

From Guardian. Surge in younger voters registering to vote. Potential wildcard maybe in enough numbers.