Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

prawnsambo wrote: »

Pretty blunt assessment from Philipe Lamberts.

That was great. He's spot on with everything he said.

maebee

prawnsambo wrote: »

And they're in Brussels drinking coffee or something. They're definitely not negotiating anything. Pretty blunt assessment from Philipe Lamberts.

He's spot on - English Nationalist Party - Hard Brexit

prawnsambo

Infini wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/04/more-than-100000-people-apply-register-vote-youth-uk-general-election

From Guardian. Surge in younger voters registering to vote. Potential wildcard maybe in enough numbers.

Well that should screw up the polls.


Good to see though, seeing some tweets about younger kids glued to the telly, riveted to the likes of Jess Philips and Jo Swinson. If people haven't seen Jess Philips' speech, you can see it here.

Mr.Nice Guy

Pity Channel 4 cut this part out!

https://twitter.com/ronanodowd/status/1169315243048218624

prawnsambo

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That was great. He's spot on with everything he said.

maebee wrote: »

He's spot on - English Nationalist Party - Hard Brexit

Just proves; if it needed proving, that nothing escapes the notice of people in other European countries. They're shouting away in the HoC and it's heard, parsed and understood in Europe. And yet the British Tory establishment treat us as fools and continue their foolish games, seemingly oblivious to the fact that we're all watching them.

maebee

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Pity Channel 4 cut this part out!

https://twitter.com/ronanodowd/status/1169315243048218624

As Lamberts said, There's no negotiations, never mind "intense negotiations"

ballsymchugh

Lords finished up, govt caved in and stopped the filibustering. bill back to commons now where they'll probably remove that lexit ammendment and pass the bill

Rain Ascending

It seems that the filibuster in the House of Lords has failed and the Benn Bill will pass Friday afternoon, before going back to the House of Commons:

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1169405594496831488

Unless a back-room deal has been done -- and there's no hint of that from Stephen Bush's twitter feed -- Johnson has lost one of his few points of leverage to get an early general election. If the opposition stay united, they now control the timing of the inevitable election that is coming.

Rain Ascending

ballsymchugh wrote: »

Lords finished up, govt caved in and stopped the filibustering. bill back to commons now where they'll probably remove that lexit ammendment and pass the bill

I'm not an expert in this space, but my understanding is that if the House of Commons remove the amendment then it has to go back to the House of Lords again for approval. And of course, there is no time for that before Johnson prorogues. So that amendment from Kinnock et al. will stand. The opposition parties can live with it, though.

Infini

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Unless a back-room deal has been done -- and there's no hint of that from Stephen Bush's twitter feed -- Johnson has lost one of his few points of leverage to get an early general election. If the opposition stay united, they now control the timing of the inevitable election that is coming.

Or the crap that Boris and Mogg's along with Cummings along with the sword over their heads that they'd be blamed for a crash out if Boris gets his way probably meant it wasn't worth fighting it expecially since they have no majority in the Lords to oppose it anyways.

They know the way the wind is blowing with this and Boris is politically and morally bankrupt there's no point in being dragged down with the sinking ship for the sake of vainglory.

fash

Infini wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1168949410832797697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1168949410832797697&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fczji4b%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dtrue

Posted on reddit.com/r/brexit

Pretty much sums ups Boris's attitude, he's only interested in smashing the place with no interest in the collateral damage or lives it could cost.

I only saw clips of Boris speaking yesterday but he was brexit sound-biting like crazy- reveling in brextremist terminology: "surrender bill", "will of the people" etc. "brexitier than thou" .
There clearly is no way back from that for him. I get the Impression that there is a coordinated push from Europe to let the UK opposition know the reality that there is no negotiation - to strengthen the resolve to defeat him.

elfy4eva

Yea it's quite rich that he has regularly made a point of calling the EU "Our european friends" And now is using buzz terms like "the surrender bill" as though they're an enemy.

Enzokk

I don't know if I am imagining it but it seems like Labour is trying to make a point that Johnson is not to be trusted with anything he says. Just like the buzzwords from no.10 that will be how Labour will approach the election. Just keep hammering that Johnson cannot be trusted to keep his word and there is ample amount of evidence out there to reinforce their point.

As for Labour and why we are seeing different dates for an election, seems they are still to reach consensus and that is why you have some mixed messages.

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1169493636926644224?s=20

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1169494636223770624?s=20

So there still needs to be a firm plan on the next election and when to call it from Labour and they will talk to the other parties as well. At least there is one bright spot that the opposition parties are talking now, so if there is a pact then at least the communication lines are open already and making a plan to at least stop Johnson from getting a majority should be possible.

Valhallapt

This is a very sobering piece from Peter Obourne about the border, it’s about 3 years too late though.

https://twitter.com/JOEdotie/status/1169308393657516033

ancapailldorcha

In other news, it looks like Philip Hammond has been reselected:



Interesting given that the constituency voted Remain by the smallest possible margin. This is something I would expect of a more pro-EU constituency but it's good news nonetheless.

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In other news, it looks like Philip Hammond has been reselected . . .

Interesting given that the constituency voted Remain by the smallest possible margin. This is something I would expect of a more pro-EU constituency but it's good news nonetheless.

Also interesting to see if Conservative Central Office attempts to veto or override this.

retalivity

The right/tory leaning English tabloids are insane

ancapailldorcha

Peregrinus wrote: »

Also interesting to see if Conservative Central Office attempts to veto or override this.

Absolutely. I'd say at least a few offices might prove rebellious.

LiamoSail

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In other news, it looks like Philip Hammond has been reselected:



Interesting given that the constituency voted Remain by the smallest possible margin. This is something I would expect of a more pro-EU constituency but it's good news nonetheless.

Was mentioned on sky yesterday that regardless of that, losing the whip makes him ineligible to stand as a tory.

prawnsambo

And of course this is not a co-ordinated campaign in the tabloid press. No sir, it's pure coincidence that this will be happening today. The Trump is strong in this one.

mrbrianj

LiamoSail wrote: »

Was mentioned on sky yesterday that regardless of that, losing the whip makes him ineligible to stand as a tory.

But by standing for election with the support of his local operation, while the Tory head office run another candidate, could result in a seat lost to an opposition party in a FPTP election.

Who will they take, the ones not voting for the BoJo/Cummings crazy run, or the ones voting against them on every issue.

Like here in the past - remember "Independent Fianna Fáilers"

is_that_so

mrbrianj wrote: »

But by standing for election with the support of his local operation, while the Tory head office run another candidate, could result in a seat lost to an opposition party in a FPTP election.

Who will they take, the ones not voting for the BoJo/Cummings crazy run, or the ones voting against them on every issue.

Like here in the past - remember "Independent Fianna Fáilers"

He got 60% of the vote the last time with 35% over Labour so that's very likely to be a seat loss for the Conservatives as he seems intent on running regardless. There will be other organisations who'll be equally as defiant. The combination of prorogation along with whip loss is a very toxic mix.

prawnsambo

mrbrianj wrote: »

But by standing for election with the support of his local operation, while the Tory head office run another candidate, could result in a seat lost to an opposition party in a FPTP election.

Who will they take, the ones not voting for the BoJo/Cummings crazy run, or the ones voting against them on every issue.

Like here in the past - remember "Independent Fianna Fáilers"

He had a massive majority in 2017. 61% of the vote and his majority was bigger than his nearest challenger's total vote. If he stands as an independent, he'll walk home. Probably with a reduced majority (if CHQ run another candidate), but he's in absolutely no danger. Especially with his local party machine behind him. I actually doubt CHQ would attempt to run another candidate against him. A waste of time and money.

is_that_so

prawnsambo wrote: »

He had a massive majority in 2017. 61% of the vote and his majority was bigger than his nearest challenger's total vote. If he stands as an independent, he'll walk home. Probably with a reduced majority (if CHQ run another candidate), but he's in absolutely no danger. Especially with his local party machine behind him. I actually doubt CHQ would attempt to run another candidate against him. A waste of time and money.

There seems to be an absolute bunker mentality about Johnson and Cummings and an assumption that the party will just roll in behind them for his victory parade. He crossed quite a few lines, some of them may turn out to be very red.

Peregrinus

prawnsambo wrote: »

He had a massive majority in 2017. 61% of the vote and his majority was bigger than his nearest challenger's total vote. If he stands as an independent, he'll walk home. Probably with a reduced majority (if CHQ run another candidate), but he's in absolutely no danger. Especially with his local party machine behind him. I actually doubt CHQ would attempt to run another candidate against him. A waste of time and money.

"Waste of time and money" is not typically a concern that has much traction with Brexiters.

is_that_so

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Waste of time and money" is not typically a concern that has much traction with Brexiters.

If they think that money can be used unseating someone elsewhere they'll probably take that seat hit and move on. You would wonder how potential donors are viewing this horror show. Not all of them would be militant Brexiteers.

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

"Waste of time and money" is not typically a concern that has much traction with Brexiters.

Party HQs are usually a lot more realistic than demagogues and charlatans. If it doesn't make sense to spend money and time running a candidate in a particular constituency, they'll divert it to one that has a chance of being won.

Peregrinus

prawnsambo wrote: »

Party HQs are usually a lot more realistic than demagogues and charlatans. If it doesn't make sense to spend money and time running a candidate in a particular constituency, they'll divert it to one that has a chance of being won.

Tory Party policy (and I think also Labour) has long been to run a candidate in every seat in GB (except the Speaker's). It's not an absolutely inflexible policy, but it's pretty strong. And it might sent a bad signal in the election campaign to concede that this incredibly safe Tory seat is unwinnable for the Johnson Tory party.

is_that_so

prawnsambo wrote: »

Party HQs are usually a lot more realistic than demagogues and charlatans. If it doesn't make sense to spend money and time running a candidate in a particular constituency, they'll divert it to one that has a chance of being won.

Sure but it will depend on who's calling the "strategy" and they have a "genius" in their midst.

prawnsambo

is_that_so wrote: »

If they think that money can be used unseating someone elsewhere they'll probably take that seat hit and move on. You would wonder how potential donors are viewing this horror show. Not all of them would be militant Brexiteers.

This is an interesting quandary for the Tories. Johnson has pretty much nailed his colours to the mast as a hard brexiter. In an election campaign, he's likely to have that in his manifesto, because otherwise it would look like rowing back. And it will lose him Tory votes. He's painted himself into a corner. Seems to be a thing with Tory PMs.