Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

joe40

CelticRambler wrote: »

It's really starting to annoy me hearing so many Tories repeating the line that the threat of no-deal is "negotiation 101" (or variations on the theme). Of course you don't necessarily reveal your compromise position going into a negotiation, but in just about every such situation the two parties are aiming to achieve a common end-point of mutual interest.

But the real fundamental rule of negotiation is to adjust your strategy according to the circumstances. I'm buying, you're selling - if we can't agree a price then yes: "no deal" is an option and neither of us get what we want, but neither do we lose what we have, and chances are, if we can't find an alternative negotiating partner, we can re-visit the same deal in the future.

I want to go to a movie and McDonalds, you want to go to the Ritz and the English National Opera? "No deal" is also an option, but if we don't agree something, we'll end up doing nothing. So it might be McD's & the Opera, or it might be hot dogs at Funderland, but starting that discussion by saying "if you won't do what I want, we're staying in and I'm having all my friends around" is not a recipe for a healthy relationship.

Perhaps if you're an arrogant white male Etonian you're taught that always having what you want is perfectly normal ...

Absolutely, Boris and co. are not interested in a negotiation they have quite clearly set up for a stand off.
They are full sure the EU will capitulate at the 11th hour or give favaourable deals post Brexit.
Thankfully the majority of the HoC don't agree with this approach, but post election which Johnson may win (FPTP means he doesn't need a majority of the electorate) this approach will again be taken, with only one outcome.

I think a second referendum will be unlikely, but another election will have to happen before Brexit is resolved.
Has there ever been a more important British general election for Ireland and Europe?

quokula

joe40 wrote:

Has there ever been a more important British general election for Ireland and Europe?

In hindsight Milliband not winning in 2015 turned out to be pretty important.

Water John

'Rebel fears that Cummings was behind the expulsions appeared to be confirmed by the report of a foul-mouthed tirade by him directed at one of the rebels, the former business secretary Greg Clark.
The Daily Mail claimed Cummings said: “When are you ****ing MPs going to realise we are leaving on October 31? We are going to purge you.” No 10 has admitted that Cummings has had robust conversations with rebels, but denied he swore.' Guardian

Rebels might be reinstated once an GE is called.
The opposition would not have the support of the 21 rebels in putting in an alternative PM esp Crobyn, IWT.

circadian

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Where are you getting this information from? Sinn Feins previous approach to this was to agree for the other to stand down and give SF a clean run at things. It would not help Alliance in terms of cross community support to be seen to be helping the nationalist side*.

* Despite how it is in reality it will be viewed by many here as DUP/UUP vs SF/SDLP/Alliance.

Note that I said I was probably optimistic in thinking that they were in cahoots, it's speculation on my part.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-open-to-westminster-electoral-pact-with-other-proremain-parties-to-challenge-the-dup-says-oneill-38468538.html

Eastwood tweeted about being open to discussions with other parties on how to run, I've also seen something from the Greens and Naoimi is doing a lot of meetings with NI MEPs while in Brussels.

Honestly, I'm expecting most moderate Unionists to swing to Alliance for this. I have friends and family who would be unionist and while most were already Alliance they're saying that the tide in border areas is turning from UUP/DUP as the reality of a hard border looms.

At the end of the day, Brexit is visceral in Northern Ireland and stopping it really should be a cross-party issue.

circadian

quokula wrote: »

In hindsight Milliband not winning in 2015 turned out to be pretty important.

All he had to do was not eat that bloody sandwich.

farmchoice

robinph wrote: »

Ensuring that it is a post Oct 31st election is the safest move as parliament then remains in control of Johnson, any option where they hold one before then and all bets are off as there is no telling what the outcome would be.
Holding it after 31st and you've humiliated Johnson, and with any luck the Tories and Brexit parties can carry on ripping each other apart, but the other parites would also be shredded by all the "you stole our Brexit" complaining.

Most sensible, but risky, move for the opposition is to have a vote of no confidence and move in with a caretaker government and no need for an election. They can then call for the extension and propose a second referendum, then step down and hold a GE on the same date.

Whoever then comes into power will have a clear instruction from the population about their view on Brexit and just has to carry that out. The risk is not being able to form a caretaker government.

that was my thinking but i wonder if there is a bit more of a risk to this then it might seem.


if you hold the election before the 31st Johnson has to keep trying to ride two horses, ''we want a deal we are in the process of getting a great deal, but we still believe in no deal''.
this keeps the brexit party in the game and is now so obviously bull****it has to harm him and push votes to the brexit party



on the other hand if it goes past the 31st he can drop all pretense to a deal, blame everything on labour and go gung ho no deal. this will neutralize the brexit party and set up a straight ''no deal'' v second ref/soft brexit/jobs first brexit fight.
here we could have no deal nutters completely coalesced around Johnson while the opposition is split.
35% of the vote in this scenario could return Johnson with a decent majority.

nc6000

quokula wrote: »

In hindsight Milliband not winning in 2015 turned out to be pretty important.

I wonder how differently things would be had a different Milliband won the 2010 Labour leadership election.

A Dub in Glasgo

On the subject of the media, we always knew the editions of British newspaers produce the front pages that their readers want to see / how they want to keep selling papers, this is brought into stark focus in the Sun this morning where we had the Scottish edition v the English edition

https://twitter.com/DariaHassQT/status/1169396468198903808

Zubeneschamali

circadian wrote: »

All he had to do was not eat that bloody sandwich.

All of the "Corbyn is so useless, if only Labour was led by a sensible middle of the roader" talk seems to be from folks who have forgotten that Labour WAS led by a sensible middle-of-the-roader, and the right wing press did him in with a sandwich.

No matter who was leading Labour yesterday, Boris would have made a puerile chlorinated chicken joke and the press would duly have printed a photoshop of Grieve or whoever as a chicken.

Duane Dibbley

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

boggerman1

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

Wow that's mad.fair play to Jo Johnson for thinking with his brains and not his ego.he knows his brother is a joke so as PM

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is very interesting. And of course hilarious. And so ironic.

Very interesting reporting RE WRM, but the Independent ruin it by putting in those memes. Its basically a fancy tabloid. We only really have one quality newspaper in this country.

gmisk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Very interesting reporting RE WRM, but the Independent ruin it by putting in those memes. Its basically a fancy tabloid. We only really have one quality newspaper in this country.

Which is?

L1011

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

Leave constituency and Tory safe seat. Expect the writ for this to be issued at undue haste.

Sam Russell

gmisk wrote: »

Which is?

The Skibbereen Eagle. It kept its eye on the Czar of Russia.

Sam Russell

A report in the Independent (UK).

Thousands in UK born as result of ‘extreme inbreeding’, study suggests

Maybe that explains the Brexit debacle.

10000maniacs

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

On the subject of the media, we always knew the editions of British newspaers produce the front pages that their readers want to see / how they want to keep selling papers, this is brought into stark focus in the Sun this morning where we had the Scottish edition v the English edition

https://twitter.com/DariaHassQT/status/1169396468198903808

Rupert Murdoch on why he hates the EU.
"When I walk into Downing Street they do what I say, but when I go to Brussels they ignore me"

10000maniacs

L1011 wrote: »

Leave constituency and Tory safe seat. Expect the writ for this to be issued at undue haste.

The first comment is hilarious.
Jo Johnson, leaving politics in order to spend less time with his family.

Headshot

I've read Luciana Berger is gone to the Lib Dems now

man they could be the king maker for the next Government.

Leroy42

L1011 wrote: »

Leave constituency and Tory safe seat. Expect the writ for this to be issued at undue haste.

Doesn't matter. Even his own brother doesn't think he is a fit PM. We already know his sister doesn't rate him.

This is a guy that only a few weeks ago stormed to the leadership of the Tory party. It is not normal that the party have turned on him so fast.

It took them 2 years to get fed up with TM. It has taken them 6 weeks to get fed up with Johnson, and he hasn't had to do very much during that time!

To have to hold a bi-election (well the GE will overtake it) because your own brother thinks you are a bit sh1t is not exactly a great talking point.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

I've read Luciana Berger is gone to the Lib Dems now

man they could be the king maker for the next Government.

Well, you can rule out a pact with the Tories 😂

Naggdefy

Sam Russell wrote: »

A report in the Independent (UK).

Thousands in UK born as result of ‘extreme inbreeding’, study suggests

Maybe that explains the Brexit debacle.

That's tiny 425 out of a sample of 450,000. 0.001% roughly. It's going to add up to a few thousand out of 65 million people. Very low really when you consider incest cases etc.

I'd be worried about the Irish figures being higher by a fair bit!

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, you can rule out a pact with the Tories ��

Not with Swinson at the helm

She was very proactive in voting for Tory policies

robinph

farmchoice wrote: »

that was my thinking but i wonder if there is a bit more of a risk to this then it might seem.


if you hold the election before the 31st Johnson has to keep trying to ride two horses, ''we want a deal we are in the process of getting a great deal, but we still believe in no deal''.
this keeps the brexit party in the game and is now so obviously bull****it has to harm him and push votes to the brexit party



on the other hand if it goes past the 31st he can drop all pretense to a deal, blame everything on labour and go gung ho no deal. this will neutralize the brexit party and set up a straight ''no deal'' v second ref/soft brexit/jobs first brexit fight.
here we could have no deal nutters completely coalesced around Johnson while the opposition is split.
35% of the vote in this scenario could return Johnson with a decent majority.

The most sane thing to do would be ensure that the question about Brexit and the one about funding for schools/ hospitals/ roads/ trains/ police etc are asked separately. I just can't see sanity happening under any scenario by holding a general election.

If they form a unity government then the LibDems, SNP etc will have far more weight in the choices that are made than they ever would have in a coalition as everyone would know it was a very temporary arrangement as a unity government and they had just one thing to sort out. Trying to keep the various factions together for 5 years and over a multitude of different topics will not hold.

awec

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not with Swinson at the helm

She was very proactive in voting for Tory policies

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

ancapailldorcha

awec wrote: »

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

Odd how the state of play has reverted to something very like the 1990's with Boris Johnson playing the role of John Major and Labour not being able to win a majority until Blair came along. Until we see another centrist who unequivocally backs a People's Vote then I don't think that it's impossible to that the Tories could win again, especially if the Remain parties split each others' votes.

robinph

Naggdefy wrote: »

That's tiny 425 out of a sample of 450,000. 0.001% roughly. It's going to add up to a few thousand out of 65 million people. Very low really when you consider incest cases etc.

I'd be worried about the Irish figures being higher by a fair bit!

Iceland is where they would normally go to study populations without much in the way of new genes coming in and only a few hundred thousand people, so much more close breeding going on.

The daftest idea that Iceland came up with recently was to do with pineapple on pizzas which isn't even in the same universe as Brexit for craziness, so I don't think in breeding can be to blame.

A Dub in Glasgo

awec wrote: »

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

2 months ago


'Jo Swinson has said that she would not rule out a future deal with the Conservatives or Labour.'

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swinson-willing-to-enter-alliance-with-main-parties-55xksb9p9

weemcd

Gove is getting slaughtered on parliamentary tv as we speak. I tuned in briefly, he is being laughed at universally by the chairs, the audience and even laughing at himself. This from the guardian:

In the Brexit committee Michael Gove has just finished answering a series of questions about how Dover would cope with lorry arrivals in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Hilary Benn, the committee chair, did not sound hugely reassured, and he concluded by asking Gove to admit that no one actually knows what will happen in the event of no deal. Gove did not contest this, but replied:

The future is known only to the Almighty.

Benn said unfortunately the Almighty would not be appearing as a witness.

Absolute GOLD

ancapailldorcha

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

2 months ago


'Jo Swinson has said that she would not rule out a future deal with the Conservatives or Labour.'

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swinson-willing-to-enter-alliance-with-main-parties-55xksb9p9

Nowadays, statements from 2 days ago are outdated, never mind 2 months!