Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so

Peregrinus wrote: »

Tory Party policy (and I think also Labour) has long been to run a candidate in every seat in GB (except the Speaker's). It's not an absolutely inflexible policy, but it's pretty strong. And it might sent a bad signal in the election campaign to concede that this incredibly safe Tory seat is unwinnable for the Johnson Tory party.

As if there haven't been any bad signals sent to date! They could select a dud and accept the seat lost.

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

Tory Party policy (and I think also Labour) has long been to run a candidate in every seat in GB (except the Speaker's). It's not an absolutely inflexible policy, but it's pretty strong. And it might sent a bad signal in the election campaign to concede that this incredibly safe Tory seat is unwinnable for the Johnson Tory party.

They'll possibly run a cannon fodder candidate there, but in reality Hammond is a Tory and when the dust settles, will probably return to the fold. If they push it, he could defect to the LibDems and then they're screwed. Choices, choices.

is_that_so

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is an interesting quandary for the Tories. Johnson has pretty much nailed his colours to the mast as a hard brexiter. In an election campaign, he's likely to have that in his manifesto, because otherwise it would look like rowing back. And it will lose him Tory votes. He's painted himself into a corner. Seems to be a thing with Tory PMs.

The Tories have always had centrist MPs and voters who reflect those values - a sort of decent Middle England types. There are a lot of unknowns in this particular election, especially after these last few days, mostly what will the voting public do.

prawnsambo

This is very interesting. And of course hilarious. And so ironic.

elbyrneo

Is there a realistic/viable path to another referendum?
Say:
-House of Lords approve the commons approved no-no deal Brexit.
-Legislation impelmented. Boris compelled to request EU extension.
-Boris presents to EU or stands down and his replacement presents.
-EU accept.
-Post Oct 31st, a general election held.
-A majority govt of Labour, SNP, Lib Dem?
-Or a Conservative led coalition that would actually support another referendum?

Is there actually anyone who would be brave enough to lead Gov't, insist on another referendum on the basis of say an uninformed original vote? And could that person or coalition realistically get into power?

Or will the wheels just keep on spinning......

weemcd

Boris Johnson Monday 02.09.19 - I do not want an election.

Boris Johnson Tuesday 03.09.19 - I want an election.

Boris Johnson Wednesday 04.09.19 - tries to force a bill through to call an election.

Boris Johnson Thursday 05.09.19 - Jeremy Corbyn is a coward because he doesn't want an immediate election, see this Tory rag newspaper headline.

... it's not even Friday yet.

Popeleo

is_that_so wrote: »

There seems to be an absolute bunker mentality about Johnson and Cummings and an assumption that the party will just roll in behind them for his victory parade. He crossed quite a few lines, some of them may turn out to be very red.

Not surprising, given that Cummings is supposed to have spent two and a half years in the early 2000s in a bunker reading "trying to understand the world". On his family farm that has received hundreds of thousands of pounds in EU subsidies.

He also spent three years living in Russia in the mid 90s.

Brexit - the gift that keeps on taking.

joe40

There will probably have to be a general election soon, and it will be framed by Boris and the Brexiteers as back leave at all costs including "no deal" versus everyone else. The full spectrum from "remain" to "deal only leavers".

The problem is due to the British electoral system of FPTP he could get a significant majority on 40% of the vote.

This will be taken as a mandate to pursue a no deal against the wishes of the majority of the British people.

The only way to find out what the majority of the public want is to have a second referendum.

People would now be making an informed choice, they are aware of the issues with securing a deal so let them have another vote with a clearly defined outcome for either Yes or No.

The 2016 vote was a farce for a modern democracy. Ask the public a question and sort out the details afterwards.

circadian

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

is_that_so

circadian wrote: »

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

The current mature adult behaviour on the opposition benches may have inspired them.

prunudo

retalivity wrote: »

The right/tory leaning English tabloids are insane

Just goes to show the power of the media and how they can sway a debate or a way of thinking.
Similarly shows how important words and language are. Boris and co using words like surrender and anti democratic to push their agenda while also hanging on Merkels lost in translation 30 days as if its an actual set in stone time extension.
Its all smoke and mirrors, people who are paying attention can see them for what they are but not the people who they are aiming their speeches at.

Duane Dibbley

This election will be odd.

You could have BP and Cons splitting the Leave vote

and

Lab and Lib D splitting the Remain vote.

CelticRambler

It's really starting to annoy me hearing so many Tories repeating the line that the threat of no-deal is "negotiation 101" (or variations on the theme). Of course you don't necessarily reveal your compromise position going into a negotiation, but in just about every such situation the two parties are aiming to achieve a common end-point of mutual interest.

But the real fundamental rule of negotiation is to adjust your strategy according to the circumstances. I'm buying, you're selling - if we can't agree a price then yes: "no deal" is an option and neither of us get what we want, but neither do we lose what we have, and chances are, if we can't find an alternative negotiating partner, we can re-visit the same deal in the future.

I want to go to a movie and McDonalds, you want to go to the Ritz and the English National Opera? "No deal" is also an option, but if we don't agree something, we'll end up doing nothing. So it might be McD's & the Opera, or it might be hot dogs at Funderland, but starting that discussion by saying "if you won't do what I want, we're staying in and I'm having all my friends around" is not a recipe for a healthy relationship.

Perhaps if you're an arrogant white male Etonian you're taught that always having what you want is perfectly normal ...

Water John

The timing of the election will be the interesting factor, before the 17th Oct, between the 17th and 31st, after the 31st. Three options all in the call of the opposition parties.

GE before 17th could be sending a diff PM to Brussels.
Between the 17th and 31st forces Johnson to ask EU for an Ext.
After the 31st, Johnson owns the Ext.

Unless Johnson has No Deal, the Brexit Party will run against him. Above all Johnson has to take all their votes to have any chance of a majority, since he has scorched the middle ground.

funkey_monkey

circadian wrote: »

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

Where are you getting this information from (edit - just seen it is one of the main stories in Irish News)? Sinn Feins previous approach to this was to agree for the other to stand down and give SF a clean run at things. It would not help Alliance in terms of cross community support to be seen to be helping the nationalist side*.

* Despite how it is in reality it will be viewed by many here as DUP/UUP vs SF/SDLP/Alliance.

robinph

Water John wrote: »

The timing of the election will be the interesting factor, before the 17th Oct, between the 17th and 31st, after the 31st. Three options all in the call of the opposition parties.

GE before 17th could be sending a diff PM to Brussels.
Between the 17th and 31st forces Johnson to ask EU for an Ext.
After the 31st, Johnson owns the Ext.

Unless Johnson has No Deal, the Brexit Party will run against him. Above all Johnson has to take all their votes to have any chance of a majority.

Ensuring that it is a post Oct 31st election is the safest move as parliament then remains in control of Johnson, any option where they hold one before then and all bets are off as there is no telling what the outcome would be.
Holding it after 31st and you've humiliated Johnson, and with any luck the Tories and Brexit parties can carry on ripping each other apart, but the other parites would also be shredded by all the "you stole our Brexit" complaining.

Most sensible, but risky, move for the opposition is to have a vote of no confidence and move in with a caretaker government and no need for an election. They can then call for the extension and propose a second referendum, then step down and hold a GE on the same date.

Whoever then comes into power will have a clear instruction from the population about their view on Brexit and just has to carry that out. The risk is not being able to form a caretaker government.

CelticRambler

circadian wrote: »

All the noises from Northern Ireland are that pro-EU parties are in talks on how to handle the potential general election, including Sinn Fein. I might be a bit too optimistic in thinking that those involved are agreeing on what constituencies they run in.

This is something that'll be very interesting to watch. If the non-DUP parties find a way to coordinate their candidatures and campaigns (without actually "working together") and achieve a degree of success, that could provide a template for future elections to Stormont. Regardless of whether or not it's an economic catastrophe, if Brexit pushes NI politics through the Orange vs. Green divide it could end up being the most positive thing to come out of the whole debacle.

joe40

CelticRambler wrote: »

It's really starting to annoy me hearing so many Tories repeating the line that the threat of no-deal is "negotiation 101" (or variations on the theme). Of course you don't necessarily reveal your compromise position going into a negotiation, but in just about every such situation the two parties are aiming to achieve a common end-point of mutual interest.

But the real fundamental rule of negotiation is to adjust your strategy according to the circumstances. I'm buying, you're selling - if we can't agree a price then yes: "no deal" is an option and neither of us get what we want, but neither do we lose what we have, and chances are, if we can't find an alternative negotiating partner, we can re-visit the same deal in the future.

I want to go to a movie and McDonalds, you want to go to the Ritz and the English National Opera? "No deal" is also an option, but if we don't agree something, we'll end up doing nothing. So it might be McD's & the Opera, or it might be hot dogs at Funderland, but starting that discussion by saying "if you won't do what I want, we're staying in and I'm having all my friends around" is not a recipe for a healthy relationship.

Perhaps if you're an arrogant white male Etonian you're taught that always having what you want is perfectly normal ...

Absolutely, Boris and co. are not interested in a negotiation they have quite clearly set up for a stand off.
They are full sure the EU will capitulate at the 11th hour or give favaourable deals post Brexit.
Thankfully the majority of the HoC don't agree with this approach, but post election which Johnson may win (FPTP means he doesn't need a majority of the electorate) this approach will again be taken, with only one outcome.

I think a second referendum will be unlikely, but another election will have to happen before Brexit is resolved.
Has there ever been a more important British general election for Ireland and Europe?

quokula

joe40 wrote:

Has there ever been a more important British general election for Ireland and Europe?

In hindsight Milliband not winning in 2015 turned out to be pretty important.

Water John

'Rebel fears that Cummings was behind the expulsions appeared to be confirmed by the report of a foul-mouthed tirade by him directed at one of the rebels, the former business secretary Greg Clark.
The Daily Mail claimed Cummings said: “When are you ****ing MPs going to realise we are leaving on October 31? We are going to purge you.” No 10 has admitted that Cummings has had robust conversations with rebels, but denied he swore.' Guardian

Rebels might be reinstated once an GE is called.
The opposition would not have the support of the 21 rebels in putting in an alternative PM esp Crobyn, IWT.

circadian

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Where are you getting this information from? Sinn Feins previous approach to this was to agree for the other to stand down and give SF a clean run at things. It would not help Alliance in terms of cross community support to be seen to be helping the nationalist side*.

* Despite how it is in reality it will be viewed by many here as DUP/UUP vs SF/SDLP/Alliance.

Note that I said I was probably optimistic in thinking that they were in cahoots, it's speculation on my part.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-open-to-westminster-electoral-pact-with-other-proremain-parties-to-challenge-the-dup-says-oneill-38468538.html

Eastwood tweeted about being open to discussions with other parties on how to run, I've also seen something from the Greens and Naoimi is doing a lot of meetings with NI MEPs while in Brussels.

Honestly, I'm expecting most moderate Unionists to swing to Alliance for this. I have friends and family who would be unionist and while most were already Alliance they're saying that the tide in border areas is turning from UUP/DUP as the reality of a hard border looms.

At the end of the day, Brexit is visceral in Northern Ireland and stopping it really should be a cross-party issue.

circadian

quokula wrote: »

In hindsight Milliband not winning in 2015 turned out to be pretty important.

All he had to do was not eat that bloody sandwich.

farmchoice

robinph wrote: »

Ensuring that it is a post Oct 31st election is the safest move as parliament then remains in control of Johnson, any option where they hold one before then and all bets are off as there is no telling what the outcome would be.
Holding it after 31st and you've humiliated Johnson, and with any luck the Tories and Brexit parties can carry on ripping each other apart, but the other parites would also be shredded by all the "you stole our Brexit" complaining.

Most sensible, but risky, move for the opposition is to have a vote of no confidence and move in with a caretaker government and no need for an election. They can then call for the extension and propose a second referendum, then step down and hold a GE on the same date.

Whoever then comes into power will have a clear instruction from the population about their view on Brexit and just has to carry that out. The risk is not being able to form a caretaker government.

that was my thinking but i wonder if there is a bit more of a risk to this then it might seem.


if you hold the election before the 31st Johnson has to keep trying to ride two horses, ''we want a deal we are in the process of getting a great deal, but we still believe in no deal''.
this keeps the brexit party in the game and is now so obviously bull****it has to harm him and push votes to the brexit party



on the other hand if it goes past the 31st he can drop all pretense to a deal, blame everything on labour and go gung ho no deal. this will neutralize the brexit party and set up a straight ''no deal'' v second ref/soft brexit/jobs first brexit fight.
here we could have no deal nutters completely coalesced around Johnson while the opposition is split.
35% of the vote in this scenario could return Johnson with a decent majority.

nc6000

quokula wrote: »

In hindsight Milliband not winning in 2015 turned out to be pretty important.

I wonder how differently things would be had a different Milliband won the 2010 Labour leadership election.

A Dub in Glasgo

On the subject of the media, we always knew the editions of British newspaers produce the front pages that their readers want to see / how they want to keep selling papers, this is brought into stark focus in the Sun this morning where we had the Scottish edition v the English edition

https://twitter.com/DariaHassQT/status/1169396468198903808

Zubeneschamali

circadian wrote: »

All he had to do was not eat that bloody sandwich.

All of the "Corbyn is so useless, if only Labour was led by a sensible middle of the roader" talk seems to be from folks who have forgotten that Labour WAS led by a sensible middle-of-the-roader, and the right wing press did him in with a sandwich.

No matter who was leading Labour yesterday, Boris would have made a puerile chlorinated chicken joke and the press would duly have printed a photoshop of Grieve or whoever as a chicken.

Duane Dibbley

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

boggerman1

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

Wow that's mad.fair play to Jo Johnson for thinking with his brains and not his ego.he knows his brother is a joke so as PM

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is very interesting. And of course hilarious. And so ironic.

Very interesting reporting RE WRM, but the Independent ruin it by putting in those memes. Its basically a fancy tabloid. We only really have one quality newspaper in this country.

gmisk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Very interesting reporting RE WRM, but the Independent ruin it by putting in those memes. Its basically a fancy tabloid. We only really have one quality newspaper in this country.

Which is?