Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

L1011

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

Leave constituency and Tory safe seat. Expect the writ for this to be issued at undue haste.

Sam Russell

gmisk wrote: »

Which is?

The Skibbereen Eagle. It kept its eye on the Czar of Russia.

Sam Russell

A report in the Independent (UK).

Thousands in UK born as result of ‘extreme inbreeding’, study suggests

Maybe that explains the Brexit debacle.

10000maniacs

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

On the subject of the media, we always knew the editions of British newspaers produce the front pages that their readers want to see / how they want to keep selling papers, this is brought into stark focus in the Sun this morning where we had the Scottish edition v the English edition

https://twitter.com/DariaHassQT/status/1169396468198903808

Rupert Murdoch on why he hates the EU.
"When I walk into Downing Street they do what I say, but when I go to Brussels they ignore me"

10000maniacs

L1011 wrote: »

Leave constituency and Tory safe seat. Expect the writ for this to be issued at undue haste.

The first comment is hilarious.
Jo Johnson, leaving politics in order to spend less time with his family.

Headshot

I've read Luciana Berger is gone to the Lib Dems now

man they could be the king maker for the next Government.

Leroy42

L1011 wrote: »

Leave constituency and Tory safe seat. Expect the writ for this to be issued at undue haste.

Doesn't matter. Even his own brother doesn't think he is a fit PM. We already know his sister doesn't rate him.

This is a guy that only a few weeks ago stormed to the leadership of the Tory party. It is not normal that the party have turned on him so fast.

It took them 2 years to get fed up with TM. It has taken them 6 weeks to get fed up with Johnson, and he hasn't had to do very much during that time!

To have to hold a bi-election (well the GE will overtake it) because your own brother thinks you are a bit sh1t is not exactly a great talking point.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

I've read Luciana Berger is gone to the Lib Dems now

man they could be the king maker for the next Government.

Well, you can rule out a pact with the Tories 😂

Naggdefy

Sam Russell wrote: »

A report in the Independent (UK).

Thousands in UK born as result of ‘extreme inbreeding’, study suggests

Maybe that explains the Brexit debacle.

That's tiny 425 out of a sample of 450,000. 0.001% roughly. It's going to add up to a few thousand out of 65 million people. Very low really when you consider incest cases etc.

I'd be worried about the Irish figures being higher by a fair bit!

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, you can rule out a pact with the Tories ��

Not with Swinson at the helm

She was very proactive in voting for Tory policies

robinph

farmchoice wrote: »

that was my thinking but i wonder if there is a bit more of a risk to this then it might seem.


if you hold the election before the 31st Johnson has to keep trying to ride two horses, ''we want a deal we are in the process of getting a great deal, but we still believe in no deal''.
this keeps the brexit party in the game and is now so obviously bull****it has to harm him and push votes to the brexit party



on the other hand if it goes past the 31st he can drop all pretense to a deal, blame everything on labour and go gung ho no deal. this will neutralize the brexit party and set up a straight ''no deal'' v second ref/soft brexit/jobs first brexit fight.
here we could have no deal nutters completely coalesced around Johnson while the opposition is split.
35% of the vote in this scenario could return Johnson with a decent majority.

The most sane thing to do would be ensure that the question about Brexit and the one about funding for schools/ hospitals/ roads/ trains/ police etc are asked separately. I just can't see sanity happening under any scenario by holding a general election.

If they form a unity government then the LibDems, SNP etc will have far more weight in the choices that are made than they ever would have in a coalition as everyone would know it was a very temporary arrangement as a unity government and they had just one thing to sort out. Trying to keep the various factions together for 5 years and over a multitude of different topics will not hold.

awec

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not with Swinson at the helm

She was very proactive in voting for Tory policies

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

ancapailldorcha

awec wrote: »

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

Odd how the state of play has reverted to something very like the 1990's with Boris Johnson playing the role of John Major and Labour not being able to win a majority until Blair came along. Until we see another centrist who unequivocally backs a People's Vote then I don't think that it's impossible to that the Tories could win again, especially if the Remain parties split each others' votes.

robinph

Naggdefy wrote: »

That's tiny 425 out of a sample of 450,000. 0.001% roughly. It's going to add up to a few thousand out of 65 million people. Very low really when you consider incest cases etc.

I'd be worried about the Irish figures being higher by a fair bit!

Iceland is where they would normally go to study populations without much in the way of new genes coming in and only a few hundred thousand people, so much more close breeding going on.

The daftest idea that Iceland came up with recently was to do with pineapple on pizzas which isn't even in the same universe as Brexit for craziness, so I don't think in breeding can be to blame.

A Dub in Glasgo

awec wrote: »

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

2 months ago


'Jo Swinson has said that she would not rule out a future deal with the Conservatives or Labour.'

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swinson-willing-to-enter-alliance-with-main-parties-55xksb9p9

funkey_monkey

That was before Torys turned into the Brexit party over the last week.

weemcd

Gove is getting slaughtered on parliamentary tv as we speak. I tuned in briefly, he is being laughed at universally by the chairs, the audience and even laughing at himself. This from the guardian:

In the Brexit committee Michael Gove has just finished answering a series of questions about how Dover would cope with lorry arrivals in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Hilary Benn, the committee chair, did not sound hugely reassured, and he concluded by asking Gove to admit that no one actually knows what will happen in the event of no deal. Gove did not contest this, but replied:

The future is known only to the Almighty.

Benn said unfortunately the Almighty would not be appearing as a witness.

Absolute GOLD

ancapailldorcha

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

2 months ago


'Jo Swinson has said that she would not rule out a future deal with the Conservatives or Labour.'

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swinson-willing-to-enter-alliance-with-main-parties-55xksb9p9

Nowadays, statements from 2 days ago are outdated, never mind 2 months!

Tell me how

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, you can rule out a pact with the Tories ��

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Not with Swinson at the helm

She was very proactive in voting for Tory policies

awec wrote: »

No chance whatsoever the Lib Dems will join up with the tories.

Almost ended their party the last time, and the tories are even more toxic now than they were then.

The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party are going to be indistinguishable at the next General Election.

The big question will be if Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens, Change, etc can put forward a coherent message which will counter the Tory/Brexit rhetoric about how bad things will be under Corbyn.

Tory MP's yesterday said that a GE now would be a defacto 2nd referendum, they won't fight it as such, it'll be non-stop mudslinging at Corbyn and anyone standing near him.

Unfortunately, I don't have huge faith in the Labour group to fight this adequately. They could really have done with not getting rid of Alistair Campbell and bringing him in on this but that isn't going to happen.

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

Enzokk

weemcd wrote: »

Gove is getting slaughtered on parliamentary tv as we speak. I tuned in briefly, he is being laughed at universally by the chairs, the audience and even laughing at himself. This from the guardian:

In the Brexit committee Michael Gove has just finished answering a series of questions about how Dover would cope with lorry arrivals in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Hilary Benn, the committee chair, did not sound hugely reassured, and he concluded by asking Gove to admit that no one actually knows what will happen in the event of no deal. Gove did not contest this, but replied:

The future is known only to the Almighty.

Benn said unfortunately the Almighty would not be appearing as a witness.

Absolute GOLD

Here is a link to the proceedings,

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2e9c4033-92b3-4edb-b5dd-09f0990e832c

Edit to add: Did Gove just say that the PM is looking for a deal but then said he is not in those departments that are busy with a deal, so how does he know they are looking for a deal if he is not involved in getting a deal?

gmisk

Tell me how wrote: »

The Conservative Party and the Brexit Party are going to be indistinguishable at the next General Election.

The big question will be if Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens, Change, etc can put forward a coherent message which will counter the Tory/Brexit rhetoric about how bad things will be under Corbyn.

Tory MP's yesterday said that a GE now would be a defacto 2nd referendum, they won't fight it as such, it'll be non-stop mudslinging at Corbyn and anyone standing near him.

Unfortunately, I don't have huge faith in the Labour group to fight this adequately. They could really have done with not getting rid of Alistair Campbell and bringing him in on this but that isn't going to happen.

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

Its already been mentioned here a lot but that is really unlikely seemingly as in UK they use FPTP.

Leroy42

weemcd wrote: »

Gove is getting slaughtered on parliamentary tv as we speak.

Its the blazé way they treat it all that gets me. All a big joke.
Q - "What happens if they reach capacity"
A - "Well then there is no more room, hehe"

They have no answers. Imagine a minister turning up at a committee and accepting that he hasn't the foggiest idea what is about to happen, only the almighty does (he was unclear whether he meant Johnson or Cummings with that remark).

Clearly they are willing to take a shot, hope for the best and assume that somehow, somewhere, something will surely sort it all out.

A 2 hour delay? Who pays for this time? Will the taxpayer be expected to cover the additional cost, will prices rise?

Tell me how

gmisk wrote: »

Its already been mentioned here a lot but that is really unlikely seemingly as in UK they use FPTP.

Understood, but Farage isn't of a mind to see the party fade in to obscurity after a single GE attempt.

Their announcement that they intend to run 600 candidates in a GE is fairly telling. They have said that they won't run against Tory candidates likely to win, but, their determination of whether or not Tory candidates are likely to win though could be a very interesting reveal.

IF they win just 3.5% of the seats they (may) contest, that could make them the 4th biggest party within the HoC. Assuming other parties don't change which is by no means guaranteed of course.

MadYaker

There’ll probably be an election before the end of the year but it’s highly unlikely there’ll be one before oct 31st

Quin_Dub

Tell me how wrote: »

Understood, but Farage isn't of a mind to see the party fade in to obscurity after a single GE attempt.

Their announcement that they intend to run 600 candidates in a GE is fairly telling. They have said that they won't run against Tory candidates likely to win, but, their determination of whether or not Tory candidates are likely to win though could be a very interesting reveal.

IF they win just 3.5% of the seats they (may) contest, that could make them the 4th biggest party within the HoC. Assuming other parties don't change which is by no means guaranteed of course.

They won't win any seats - They are polling around the same level as UKIP were ~5 years ago and they got 1 seat then.

Their best chance of a seat is Farage and he's an outside bet at best, virtually every other BP candidate is a complete and total unknown.

Having said that , it will be interesting to see what the polling shows over the next few days given all that is going on.

If the BP get a major lift in support then maybe they might actually win some seats , but based on all the data available so far , they haven't a chance.

They will influence the election results , but not by winning seats.

ath262

the election motion is to be raised again Monday (BBC Blog)

added : Jacob Rees-Mogg also confirmed Parliament would not be suspended - or prorogued - until the bill to block a no-deal Brexit has been passed into law.

Forty Seven

Headshot wrote: »

I've read Luciana Berger is gone to the Lib Dems now

man they could be the king maker for the next Government.

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

Tell me how

Quin_Dub wrote: »

They won't win any seats - They are polling around the same level as UKIP were ~5 years ago and they got 1 seat then.

Their best chance of a seat is Farage and he's an outside bet at best, virtually every other BP candidate is a complete and total unknown.

Having said that , it will be interesting to see what the polling shows over the next few days given all that is going on.

If the BP get a major lift in support then maybe they might actually win some seats , but based on all the data available so far , they haven't a chance.

They will influence the election results , but not by winning seats.

Things are so different from 5 years ago, it is hardly worth mentioning.

I do agree in terms of UKIP being all bluster and falling short but I don't think it's unfair to say that if there was a 2nd referendum tomorrow, at least 45% of the country would still vote for it and I'm not sure if they are happy with how parliament has operated over the last 3 years and so at least some would look for alternatives to Tories.

Akrasia

Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill has said they are open to an election pact with other Pro Remain parties to shut out the DUP in the next election.

They aren't going to change their abstentionist policy but if this works it could seriously harm the DUP which is, frankly, good news for absolutely everyone

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-open-to-westminster-electoral-pact-with-other-proremain-parties-to-challenge-the-dup-says-oneill-38468538.html

robinph

Forty Seven wrote: »

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

You vote for a person, not a party, and fixed terms or not has nothing to do with it.

As he UK will soon have had three elections within 5 years since the 5 year fixed term was brought in I don't see how that even made any difference either, other than clearly laying out the rules for calling an election which is obviously a good thing.