Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

Things are so different from 5 years ago, it is hardly worth mentioning.

I do agree in terms of UKIP being all bluster and falling short but I don't think it's unfair to say that if there was a 2nd referendum tomorrow, at least 45% of the country would still vote for it and I'm not sure if they are happy with how parliament has operated over the last 3 years and so at least some would look for alternatives to Tories.

It's not so much about the brexit issue as the (seemingly) widespread opinion that UKIP/BP aren't a 'serious' Westminster party. People vote on a wide variety of issues and brexit (even now) is only one of them. BP don't have a manifesto on other issues that would engage voters and would never be seen as being capable of forming a government. Even if there was some sort of election pact with the Tories (unlikely), people would still vote for the Tories because they know it would have the same effect as voting for the BP and they get all the other things the Tories stand for. But as al things FPTP, it will come down to individual constituencies.

Quin_Dub

Tell me how wrote: »

Things are so different from 5 years ago, it is hardly worth mentioning.

I do agree in terms of UKIP being all bluster and falling short but I don't think it's unfair to say that if there was a 2nd referendum tomorrow, at least 45% of the country would still vote for it and I'm not sure if they are happy with how parliament has operated over the last 3 years and so at least some would look for alternatives to Tories.

I don't disagree at all , but all the modelling for actual seat projections show the Brexit party at Zero.

There isn't a single constituency where they are even legitimately in the hunt for a seat right now.

Obviously things can change and as I say I'd like to see some new data showing where people are at in the aftermath of the last few days. Also , if the Tories did agree some kind of Electoral pact (which would be suicide for them!) then that has major implications in terms of seat potential.

But , if the don't do a deal and I do not expect them to , the BP are highly unlikely to take seats , but they will cost the Tories a few and possibly a few Labour seats in Leave constituencies.

The only thing the Brexit party are likely to contribute to this Election is a hung parliament.

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

If the Brexit Party gets more than zero it will be a huge victory for them. They certainly won't get more than a couple of seats.

J Mysterio

Cummings Wikipedia entry is interesting. Would almost lead one to conclude he is a Russian agent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

He is described as a Russophile who speaks Russian and loves Dostoevsky, Bismarck and Math. After colllege he went to Russia from 94-97 and got in trouble with the KGB for setting up some airline and whatever else.

Cameron apparently described him as a 'career pyscopath'.

From 1999 to 2002, Cummings was campaign director at Business for Sterling, the campaign against the UK joining the Euro

Founded New Frontiers Foundation think-tank as its director; Described as a "key figure" in the successful campaign against a North-East Regional Assembly in 2004.

Worked for Gove from 2007 to 2014, first in opposition and after 2010, as special adviser in Department of Education. Gove's chief of staff, an appointment blocked by a Andy Coulson until his own resignation.

Cummings became campaign director of Vote Leave upon the creation of the organisation in October 2015.

His wife is the deputy editor of the Spectator.

...

What about this mans connections to Banks, Cambridge Analytica, Russian money? He is surely guilty of a heap at this point. No investigations. This man is behaving like the KGB himself- summarily firing people and demanding their phones, declaring purges. What is going on? He is a wrecking ball destroying the UK.

Infini

Brexit party is essentially a troll party in all fairness they dont have any serious policies and little hope of actually getting seats. The real problem they create is they leech seats off other canididates. That being said they're primarily a threat to the conservatives more than labour as they'd likely siphon off the votes to them.

Conservatives mightve returned a majority but I wonder how long that would remain a case expecially after last weeks shenanigans. May also thought she would win and that backfired spetacularly.

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the Brexit Party gets more than zero it will be a huge victory for them. They certainly won't get more than a couple of seats.

So, do you think that the Tories are going to attract enough voters after everything that is gone on to allow them to form a functioning government?

Or, are do we think it will be a Labour lead coalition after the GE?

jasonb

So, have things quietened down a bit now? Am I right in thinking that it will be Monday before the bill becomes law, and then Boris will try for another election vote and we'll see if Labour will support it or not?

is_that_so

J Mysterio wrote: »

Cummings Wikipedia entry is interesting. Would almost lead one to conclude he is a Russian agent.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

He is described as a Russophile who speaks Russian and loves Dostoevsky, Bismarck and Math. After colllege he went to Russia from 94-97 and got in trouble with the KGB for setting up some airline and whatever else.

Cameron apparently described him as a 'career pyscopath'.

From 1999 to 2002, Cummings was campaign director at Business for Sterling, the campaign against the UK joining the Euro

Founded New Frontiers Foundation think-tank as its director; Described as a "key figure" in the successful campaign against a North-East Regional Assembly in 2004.

Worked for Gove from 2007 to 2014, first in opposition and after 2010, as special adviser in Department of Education. Gove's chief of staff, an appointment blocked by a Andy Coulson until his own resignation.

Cummings became campaign director of Vote Leave upon the creation of the organisation in October 2015.

His wife is the deputy editor of the Spectator.

...

What about this mans connections to Banks, Cambridge Analytica, Russian money? He is surely guilty of a heap at this point. No investigations. This man is behaving like the KGB himself- summarily firing people and demanding their phones, declaring purges. What is going on? He is a wrecking ball destroying the UK.

Maybe that is his problem. He runs campaigns reasonably well and can shift gullible or unsure individuals down pre-determined paths. It's a very different story when he tries it on with career politicians or even indirectly with the likes of EU negotiators who would barely blink in the face of his strategy.

Forty Seven

robinph wrote: »

Forty Seven wrote: »

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

You vote for a person, not a party, and fixed terms or not has nothing to do with it.

As he UK will soon have had three elections within 5 years since the 5 year fixed term was brought in I don't see how that even made any difference either, other than clearly laying out the rules for calling an election which is obviously a good thing.

How it is supposed to work and how it actually works are two different things. Nobody votes for the person. They vote for a party. That's why we get people imported to safe seats. Often bumbling idiots.

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

So, do you think that the Tories are going to attract enough voters after everything that is gone on to allow them to form a functioning government?

Or, are do we think it will be a Labour lead coalition after the GE?

Best guess is another hung Parliament, but a Labour/SNP/LibDem/Green coalition would probably not be stable for 5 years. SNP's whole mission is to win an Indyref and then leave, so the coalition would be self destructing - the Tories will have no Scottish MPs after the next election and lose nothing in Scottish Independence.

Long term, the Tories will rule supreme over England and Engxit (or whatever they'll call it) looks inevitable.

Quin_Dub

Tell me how wrote: »

So, do you think that the Tories are going to attract enough voters after everything that is gone on to allow them to form a functioning government?

Or, are do we think it will be a Labour lead coalition after the GE?

Right now , all I see is a hung parliament to be honest.

J Mysterio

jasonb wrote: »

So, have things quietened down a bit now?

Not really no, haha.

Look at this reporting on CNN:

The 'mother of Parliaments' is falling apart on live TV

On Tuesday, 1.5 million people tuned into BBC Parliament to see an alliance of rebel lawmakers deal the UK government a humiliating blow, seizing control of the Brexit agenda and forcing embattled Prime Minister Boris Johnson to call for a snap general election.

It was the biggest single-day audience for the channel...

..."Both sides are using constitutional practices and parliamentary conventions in new ways that some feel is an abuse and that has led to great mistrust and disrespect," Haddon said.

Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg seemed to be the physical embodiment of that contempt on Tuesday night as he reclined on the front bench of the chamber, eyes closed and nearly horizontal while the debate raged around him

Forty Seven

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Tell me how wrote: »

This could open a right Pandora's Box if a large number of Brexit Party members get seats.

If the Brexit Party gets more than zero it will be a huge victory for them. They certainly won't get more than a couple of seats.

Brexit party are done. Boris has taken a hard stance on brexit and has taken back all the disgruntled Tory votes.

Imreoir2

Forty Seven wrote: »

She's just ensuring funding for her next run. There's an election coming and change UK is done.

An mp changing party should trigger a by election imo. Especially now we have fixed terms.

I think that would give far too much power to the party leadership. Any MP not toing the line can be threathened with not only losing the whip, but also their seat and being forced to contest an election against their own party. MPs seats are not the property of the party that can be taken away if and when the leader chooses.

jasonb

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not really no, haha.

Look at this reporting on CNN.

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/09/05/europe/uk-parliament-disintegrating-gbr-intl/index.html?r=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F

The 'mother of Parliaments' is falling apart on live TV

Yep, but I think I read somewhere that the next step for the Bill is it coming back to the HoC on Monday, is that right? So in theory nothing else happens with that until then?

Tell me how

Forty Seven wrote: »

How it is supposed to work and how it actually works are two different things. Nobody votes for the person. They vote for a party. That's why we get people imported to safe seats. Often bumbling idiots.

Famously Jacobs Rees Mogg first ran for parliament in the Labour stronghold of Fife. It was obviously an effort to blood him on the campaign trail but the suggestion that someone as posh as him could represent a largely working class constituency was ludicrous.

Farage attempted to win a seat in Westminster 7 times, across 6 different constituencies.

listermint

Forty Seven wrote: »

How it is supposed to work and how it actually works are two different things. Nobody votes for the person. They vote for a party. That's why we get people imported to safe seats. Often bumbling idiots.

Sweeping statement which doesn't cover all jurisdictions. I think you'll agree

Water John

Forty Seven you need to read up Edmund Burke. An MP is basically elected by the people whom they entrust to exercise, good judgement. An elected MP doesn't even have to reflect the views of the majority of his constituents on any given issue. Just need to bring their best judgement to the subject.
No a voter doesn't elect a party, in UK or Ireland. You do have list systems in some other countries.

robinph

Forty Seven wrote: »

Nobody votes for the person.

How come there are independent MP's then?

CelticRambler

gmisk wrote: »

Its already been mentioned here a lot but that is really unlikely seemingly as in UK they use FPTP.

FPTP's strength is also its weakness. It is designed for a two-party system in a stable political environment. The UK is a very, very long way from that now, which means that "anything's possible" ... and indeed, the "impossible" has already happened in at least one seat (Canterbury's forever-safe Tory seat being lost to Labour in 2017).

When you infuse a bucket of newly-registered young pro-Remain voters into a mix of older, hard-core never-waverers, and then add Leaver Tory voters, Remainer Labour voters, disillusioned abstentionists, protest voters against the failure to respect "democracy" and a bus-load of easily swayed gullibles who walked past a carefully placed billboard-ad on their way to the polling station ... FPTP means you don't need the butterfly to flap its wings too energetically in some forgotten constituency to cause a hurricane in Westminster.

Without any regard for seat-by-seat polling, I'm pretty sure the next UK government will be a rainbow coalition ... and I wouldn't be surprised if such an alliance comes with the promise of both a Scotish Independence referendum and steps towards some kind of PR for future elections.

Water John

Wouldn't see the SNP taking seats in Cabinet but would support a Lb/Lib Dem Govn't from the outside. Main condition being a 2nd Indy Ref during the lifetime of the Govn't.
An alternative for UK Govn't to move to a more federal system with 4 parliaments controlling their own domestic affairs. Might be the only way to keep a Union.

awec

robinph wrote: »

How come there are independent MP's then?

Independents are essentially a party of 1. People vote for their policies.

Forty Seven

boggerman1 wrote: »

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Interesting family troubles.

https://twitter.com/JoJohnsonUK/status/1169555292918571008

Wow that's mad.fair play to Jo Johnson for thinking with his brains and not his ego.he knows his brother is a joke so as PM

Jo has jumped ship as he is a remainer about to face re-election in a seat that voted leave.

fr336

Labour should say to BJ they will vote for an election via a short bill requiring only a majority in the HOC rather than two thirds as long as they can amend it and insert the date of November 1st or later. And after the blocking no deal bill is the law of the land. Of course then Boris won't immediately agree to this, but then what will he do? He's only been a "proper" PM in my eyes i.e. under the scrutiny of people other than his right wing media chums for a couple of days and already the show is unravelling at serious speed.

Leroy42

Forty Seven wrote: »

Jo has jumped ship as he is a remainer about to face re-election in a seat that voted leave.

So what, faced with the possible loss of his seat, he decided to blow up any and all links to the Tory party and dump over his own brother? And to this all before an election is even called?

L1011

Forty Seven wrote: »

Jo has jumped ship as he is a remainer about to face re-election in a seat that voted leave.

In a seat that'd elect a donkey with a blue rosette and no chance of deselection.

Forty Seven

Water John wrote: »

Forty Seven you need to read up Edmund Burke. An MP is basically elected by the people whom they entrust to exercise, good judgement. An elected MP doesn't even have to reflect the views of the majority of his constituents on any given issue. Just need to bring their best judgement to the subject.
No a voter doesn't elect a party, in UK or Ireland. You do have list systems in some other countries.

I agree, it does not change the fact that there is a large part of the UK who vote the same as their dad did. For no other reason than that.

I happen to agree with my Mp on many issues. I would vote for him except for one. He is SNP.

We don't vote by person. We vote on policy and that means we vote for the people who are likely to get elected who are closest to that policy. That means we vote by party. Independent candidates usually have no hope in changing government policy. We vote by party here. Just as most of Ireland do.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Forty Seven you need to read up Edmund Burke. An MP is basically elected by the people whom they entrust to exercise, good judgement. An elected MP doesn't even have to reflect the views of the majority of his constituents on any given issue. Just need to bring their best judgement to the subject.
No a voter doesn't elect a party, in UK or Ireland. You do have list systems in some other countries.

Indeed, there seems to be a complete misconception that an MP is answerable only to the people who voted for him / her. The MP represents the people of the entire constituency and therefore it is irrelevant if they change party at some point.

Sam Russell

fr336 wrote: »

Labour should say to BJ they will vote for an election via a short bill requiring only a majority in the HOC rather than two thirds as long as they can amend it and insert the date of November 1st or later. And after the blocking no deal bill is the law of the land. Of course then Boris won't immediately agree to this, but then what will he do? He's only been a "proper" PM in my eyes i.e. under the scrutiny of people other than his right wing media chums for a couple of days and already the show is unravelling at serious speed.

Labour would be very unwise to agree to any GE until after the EU has granted an extension. They only have to wait until after the Queens speech. If they wait until then, the GE will be in November anyway.

To me, their response to a VONC should be to vote for it, and then form a Gov of National Unity, and revoke Art 50 and then set up a Royal Commission into the whole Brexit nonsense, including funding, Cambridge Anal ytica etc, the lack of the Met Police investigation, the dark money and dark actors, etc. You could include Cummings in that as well.

Corbyn is not likely to help himself though.

El Weirdo

Tell me how wrote: »

Farage attempted to win a seat in Westminster 7 times, across 6 different constituencies.

Including losing to a dolphin. A dolphin.

It was the time when he ran against the speaker, John Bercow, iirc.