Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

You may be right. But those who support remaining won't shut up. Ever.

But they will be increasingly confined to Internet message boards only read by other vocal remainers. The rest sadly will move on.

Joe_ Public

Not saying polls shouldn't be of interest, but when you consider how far out most of them were in 2017 at a time that was so much less volatile than now, i'm not sure how much value should be placed in them. Time will tell, but i find it difficult to see any party coming back with a majority or even enough seats to form a coalition or confidence and supply arrangement with one other party. The timing and terms of the election is the huge caveat, of course, but i would currently bet large on hung parliament and even more brexit uncertainty in its wake.

10000maniacs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It all depends on the Brexit Party. If they step aside, the Tories will be back with a majority.

Even if the BP stand aside, the Tories are screwed in Scotland, they will lose more than 4 seats in Scotland. Also, those 30 or so rebels and resignations will be a big loss too to their constituencies.
100,000 young people have registered to vote in the last week. They won't vote Tory.
And then all the Tory shenanigans recently.
I am quietly confident Corbyn will be the new PM.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

When you have Brexiters today talking about fighting Germans for their freedom 100 years ago, there's no way they'll sit quietly in the background while the British government of the day "sells them out" to Brussels in 5 or 10 years time.

The "anti-EU" movement might be deeply discredited in 5 to 10 years time though. I suspect a lot of stuff will come out to say they were up to their necks in criminality.

Forty Seven

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It all depends on the Brexit Party. If they step aside, the Tories will be back with a majority.

If they deal with the Tories and stand in places like Barnsley or Wakefield both of who would never vote tory but voted leave by a large majority then the outcome may be different. I could see industrial wastelands that traditionally voted labour defecting. They detest the tories but want brexit. There are many seats like this where the Brexit party could shock. Boris is desperate and the brexit party has been sidelined by his defiant stand. It is a marriage made in heaven for them both.

bilston

Johnson making a speech with about 30 police officers lined up behind him.

Very Trumpian.

Bit cynical

CelticRambler wrote: »

When you have Brexiters today talking about fighting Germans for their freedom 100 years ago, there's no way they'll sit quietly in the background while the British government of the day "sells them out" to Brussels in 5 or 10 years time.

There might be some of these but I don't see a political movement based on it. I agree with a lot of people on this thread saying that the Brexit party won't exist long after a no deal Brexit.

Enzokk

bilston wrote: »

Johnson making a speech with about 30 police officers lined up behind him.

Very Trumpian.

I cannot take any of what he says seriously when he talks about fighting crime and giving the police the resources they need, when he was in parliament and government that cut resources for the same police services. Liar.

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm sure there will be ongoing trade talks between the UK and the EU but these will not be of huge interest either.

The only way the trade talks will be of no interest to the red-tops is if they are unsuccessful.

If they are even a little successful it will be because the lily livered quisling traitors in Government have surrendered the precious sovereignty England won in Brexit to the jackbooted EU dictators.

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

But they will be increasingly confined to Internet message boards only read by other vocal remainers. The rest sadly will move on.

Not in Westminster they won't. Far too juicy a stick to beat the Tories with.

Professor Moriarty

10000maniacs wrote: »

Even if the BP stand aside, the Tories are screwed in Scotland, they will lose more than 4 seats in Scotland. Also, those 30 or so rebels and resignations will be a big loss too to their constituencies.
100,000 young people have registered to vote in the last week. They won't vote Tory.
And then all the Tory shenanigans recently.
I am quietly confident Corbyn will be the new PM.

If Labour dumped Corbyn and the Brexit Party ran, then Labour would romp home. If.

bilston

WTF?!!!

One of the police officers has fainted behind him and he has just kept talking.

Edit - fainted maybe an exaggeration but that was just weird.

prawnsambo

Doctor Peter Nicholl has been defamed (under privilege in the HoC) by Jacob Rees-Mogg. Nicholl was the doctor that phoned in on LBC to ask JRM what mortality rate he would deem acceptable after a hard brexit. Nicholl was on the Yellowhammer task force apparently. The clip of the LBC segment was posted here a couple of days ago.
Needless to say, Nicholl is hopping mad. As are the BMA.

Zubeneschamali

bilston wrote: »

WTF?!!!

You'll need to narrow that down a bit - which of the 10 recent WTF events are you reacting to?

bilston

That was just a weird speech

Enzokk

This is the speech Johnson is making. He is worse than May, look at him under questioning from the press. He has no energy and is waffling on and on and on and is caught out constantly on his promises and statements from before.

The questions to him starts around 9 minutes in.

Forty Seven

bilston wrote: »

Johnson making a speech with about 30 police officers lined up behind him.

Very Trumpian.

To be fair he was there to unveil his new recruits. Not too confident in them given one had trouble standing up.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

WTF?!!!

One of the police officers has fainted behind him and he has just kept talking.

Edit - fainted maybe an exaggeration but that was just weird.

Nodded off perhaps?
Wouldn't blame him. They've been standing there since a good while before the speech.

bilston

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You'll need to narrow that down a bit - which of the 10 recent WTF events are you reacting to?

He just made a speech in front of a bunch of police officers and one of them seemed to almost faint or be sick, it was just another bizarre.moment.

I swear there are script writers in charge of this somewhere!

Zubeneschamali

Forty Seven wrote: »

To be fair he was there to unveil his new recruits.

Woeful optics - looks like something from North Korea.

Enzokk

He just confirmed he will not ask the EU for an extension. I see a challenge to Labour here, don't ask for an election. You have the upper hand with a PM that has no majority and confirmed he will resign as PM before carrying out the law, so let him do it.

There is nothing that says him resigning means an election, he just resigns as PM. Let someone else go in and ask for the extension.

allthedoyles

He keeps saying people voted by a substantial majority to leave

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

I cannot take any of what he says seriously when he talks about fighting crime and giving the police the resources they need, when he was in parliament and government that cut resources for the same police services. Liar.

I recall there was a man on Sky news the morning they made the annoucnement about the 20,000 new recruits and he was making the point that not only had the government cut that number over the years, but they had also decimated the infrastructure around the force so not only was their a chronic shortage of qualified staff to train them but also a chronic shortage of the facilities and centres of excellence in which to train them. Cant remember his name, but he was a former force member of a high rank and he knew what he was talking about.

CelticRambler

Bit cynical wrote: »

There might be some of these but I don't see a political movement based on it. I agree with a lot of people on this thread saying that the Brexit party won't exist long after a no deal Brexit.

They won't/don't need a party to make themselves heard. Look at the Gilets Jaunes in France, or the current protesters in Hong Kong.

I'm not saying that there'll be wall-to-wall coverage of "the EU question" but it'll flare up regularly. Even now, the media regularly offers itself Brexit downtime, and only goes into overdrive in the run-up to each new deadline.

In the future, "the EU question" will be brought back to the fore when Scotland secedes from GB, when NI votes for reunification, and every time some "Brussels" reminds England that "those rules no longer apply" - e.g. the extradition of the tabloids' most-hated criminal-of-the-month, or Tracey-from-Essex's honeymoon-in-hell (because she forgot to renew her visa-waiver) ... not to mention "EU scuppers lucrative British trade deal with Solomon Islands" or somesuch hysteria.

Every one of those stories will pick at the scab of unhealed rifts between family members, neighbours, local politicians who voted leave or remain, etc, etc, etc; and that'll kick off a whole new round of Brexit-related acrimony.

Bit cynical

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The only way the trade talks will be of no interest to the red-tops is if they are unsuccessful.

If they are even a little successful it will be because the lily livered quisling traitors in Government have surrendered the precious sovereignty England won in Brexit to the jackbooted EU dictators.

It depends on the terms of course but there won't be much news emerging from the talks until towards the end which would probably take years.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

He just confirmed he will not ask the EU for an extension. I see a challenge to Labour here, don't ask for an election. You have the upper hand with a PM that has no majority and confirmed he will resign as PM before carrying out the law, so let him do it.

There is nothing that says him resigning means an election, he just resigns as PM. Let someone else go in and ask for the extension.

Absolutely. There is no dilemma for labour here that i can see, dont give him the election he craves right now. The slurs that they are "frit" or running scared of the election they have been shouting about for the last 2 years are hollow and meaningless and should be brushed aside. Just smack of the total desperation about the government right now.

Enzokk

allthedoyles wrote: »

He keeps saying people voted by a substantial majority to leave

Semantics, he could mean they won and there was a substantial amount of votes, or that the amount of votes that won it was substantial compared to a general election

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

He just made a speech in front of a bunch of police officers and one of them seemed to almost faint or be sick, it was just another bizarre.moment.

I swear there are script writers in charge of this somewhere!

I'd say probably fainted. They were standing there for over an hour in full dress uniform before he arrived. Late as usual. That's a recipe for fainting, always used to be a regular occurrence at military guards of honour on hot days.

Joe_ Public

Elmar Brok on sky news just there saying it's been nearly one year since WA agreed and there has been "no change" in UK situation, didnt sound very convinced to me about the wisdom of granting an extension. Repeated that an election or referendum would need to be promised and that isnt the case as of yet at least.

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

It depends on the terms of course but there won't be much news emerging from the talks until towards the end which would probably take years.

No, after the nonsense the UK have pulled, the EU are going to slap the WA minus transition on the table and "sign here or no deal" and put that photo in a press release.

If the UK sign, the Brexiteers will have an aneurysm (or England sign, if the Scots have already left).

If they don't, the economy will stay in the toilet.