Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

I can't see how the UK remains in the EU under any scenario.

Very simple - Remain Alliance wins the next General Election, request a 1 year extension, hold a referendum, Remain wins (at least the polls have Remain ahead ever since the last shock result), revoke A50, the end.

Dyr

jm08 wrote: »

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

What I heard around the time of the last extension, was the French and others were not agreeing to another extension under any circumstances and actually now want the UK out of the EU.

prawnsambo

So now we're down to security threats. At least some sort of talks have started.

Boris Johnson has told Brussels he wants to rewrite the defence pledges in the current Brexit deal, sparking EU fears that he will use the security of European citizens as a bargaining chip.

A demand for a looser level of cooperation was made by Johnson’s EU envoy, David Frost, during the recent talks in Brussels with the European commission negotiators.

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Very simple - Remain Alliance wins the next General Election, request a 1 year extension, hold a referendum, Remain wins (at least the polls have Remain ahead ever since the last shock result), revoke A50, the end.

That won’t count for anything in a general election and FPTP and seat distribution etc.
Tories still look likely to come out on top.
The next parliament could be very different.
We might be looking back at the current parliament as relatively pragmatic.
No deal brexit is, depressingly, still very popular in Britain. And by far the more motivated argument.
Terrible reflection on that country that a movement led by such liars and conniving charlatans has such wide appeal. At this stage they are almost cartoonishly wicked.

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

That won’t count for anything in a general election and FPTP and seat distribution etc.
Tories still look likely to come out on top.
The next parliament could be very different.
We might be looking back at the current parliament as relatively pragmatic.
No deal brexit is, depressingly, still very popular in Britain. And by far the more motivated argument.
Terrible reflection on that country that a movement led by such liars and conniving charlatans has such wide appeal. At this stage they are almost cartoonishly wicked.

Very popular is a relative term. I think it was 22% the last time it was polled.

BluePlanet

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well he hasn't really. He sent someone over and they had a cup of tea or coffee and then went home. Came with nothing, and left with nothing. The EU said there was no negotiation with the UK envoy.

So the boomster is just hot air.

No he spoke to Merkel and Macron, latched onto her off the cuff comment about a deal could be done in 30 days or 3 years or whatever, then ran with that soundbite pretending like the EU are giving ground, to return home "triumphant".
Zero substance to it.

He'll pull the same stunt in Dublin next Monday.

Bigus

jm08 wrote: »

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

2. European will continue to sound friendly and open to negotiations.
3. Would rather have no-deal Brexit than drop backstop. Fears of renewed conflict on Irish border makes it non-negotiable because peace is the EU's core mission.
4. European business is not lobbying against no deal. They don't want to have to compete with a deregulated UK.
5. They don't see huge economic damage - Ireland expects short term damage.
6. Southern Europeans couldn't give two tosses about it.


Brussels expect Britain to reopen talks within a week. Initially will allow Irish border to be porous, but will be checking continental ports (causing delays and shortages in the UK).

Above reinforces an inkling I have picked up that the E.U. could pull the plug.
Notwithstanding what I said only a day or 2 ago , I now get the feeling that the E.U. inc Ireland have collectively decided to let the U.K. jump.
Isn’t there rumors of the irish cabinet meeting attendees leaving ashen faced after they were brought up to date by Coveny and Varadkar?

Forty Seven

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Very simple - Remain Alliance wins the next General Election, request a 1 year extension, hold a referendum, Remain wins (at least the polls have Remain ahead ever since the last shock result), revoke A50, the end.

Wishful thinking. Tories will likely win the election. There is a reason he is calling for one. He doesn't expect to lose.


As for the rest of it. Riots. Lots of violent, nasty riots. The leavers are not the debating type. Brexit means brexit. If we go the way you suggest expect a bunch of Norf FC types to start marching. It won't be pretty.

prawnsambo

Forty Seven wrote: »

Wishful thinking. Tories will likely win the election. There is a reason he is calling for one. He doesn't expect to lose.

As for the rest of it. Riots. Lots of violent, nasty riots. The leavers are not the debating type. Brexit means brexit. If we go the way you suggest expect a bunch of Norf FC types to start marching. It won't be pretty.

I'd be very loathe to predict any outcome at this stage. There's one thing for sure though, Johnson is a polarising figure. A lot more than I thought he would be, and he's not exactly covering himself in glory at the moment.

sondagefaux

prawnsambo wrote: »

So now we're down to security threats. At least some sort of talks have started.

He'll have to accept that if there is much lower level of security co-operation between the UK and EU after Brexit than envisaged in the WA (and the Political Declaration attached to it), it makes the UK more vulnerable to attacks as much as it makes the EU more vulnerable to attacks.

If he's willing to increase the risk to UK citizens and residents to prove his credentials to the No Deal Brexiteers, he's showing yet again his unfitness for office.

sondagefaux

BluePlanet wrote: »

Didn't he also say he would not talk to the EU until they dropped the BackStop?
Didn't happen.

Talking isn't negotiating.

Negotiating means that you bring proposals to the table and see if they can be acceptable to your counter-party, not telling them what you don't want over and over again.

bazermc

Is there any proceedings to watch tonight? Or will I have to stick to regular TV?

20silkcut

prawnsambo wrote: »

Very popular is a relative term. I think it was 22% the last time it was polled.

I don’t doubt your information but I find it hard to square that with the brexit party polling 45% in the run up to the European elections.

Surely Johnson et al would not be pursuing such a ruinous course of action for a policy that only has 22% support.
They must have confidence that they can win a majority going down this road.

I really wish your figure to be correct but the truth is the last 3 major elections in the Uk, namely the referendum, 2017 GE and 2019 euros, have been significantly Brexity.
The forthcoming inevitable election wouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence that it will put the brexit monster to bed.

sondagefaux

20silkcut wrote: »

I don’t doubt your information but I find it hard to square that with the brexit party polling 45% in the run up to the European elections.

Surely Johnson et al would not be pursuing such a ruinous course of action for a policy that only has 22% support.
They must have confidence that they can win a majority going down this road.

I really wish your figure to be correct but the truth is the last 3 major elections in the Uk namely the referendum, 2017 GE and 2019 euros have been significantly Brexity.
The forthcoming inevitable election wouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence that it will put the brexit monster to bed.

They didn't win 45% of the vote in the European elections, which aren't in any case an indication of how people would vote in a referendum.

Especially since European elections have never been taken very seriously in the UK, even less so when people were voting in the expectation that the UK would be leaving the EU in a matter of months.

If there was a referendum tomorrow with a choice between two leave options (i.e. Remain was not on the ballot), I have no doubt at all that a 'soft Brexit', with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market (with NI alone remaining in a customs union with the EU), would beat No Deal Brexit hands down.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Oh wow did anyone see that segment on Sky news

Lucy Harris v Femi

What a nasty woman and fair play to Kay Burley

She and people of her ilk are one of the reasons why the UK is tearing itself apart and why we across the pond, look at them in disbelief of what they are doing to their own country

RobertKK

bazermc wrote: »

Is there any proceedings to watch tonight? Or will I have to stick to regular TV?

Question Time on BBC1. Can't stand Tice so hopefully someone eviscerates him.

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1169645803192946689?s=20

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

I don’t doubt your information but I find it hard to square that with the brexit party polling 45% in the run up to the European elections.

Surely Johnson et al would not be pursuing such a ruinous course of action for a policy that only has 22% support.
They must have confidence that they can win a majority going down this road.

I really wish your figure to be correct but the truth is the last 3 major elections in the Uk, namely the referendum, 2017 GE and 2019 euros, have been significantly Brexity.
The forthcoming inevitable election wouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence that it will put the brexit monster to bed.

European elections are a joke in the UK. The BP literally took all the UKIP seats there. And of course it's done under the de Hondt system which is not the same as FPTP. So they did no better than UKIP (maybe 1 seat iirc) and that pretty much should translate directly to Westminster election experience as well. Where the best UKIP got was one seat.

Zubeneschamali

Forty Seven wrote: »

Wishful thinking. Tories will likely win the election. There is a reason he is calling for one. He doesn't expect to lose..

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.

MikeSoys

so maybe idiot Q here but lords look likely to approve proposal to BLOCK a no deal; queen will rubber stamp it
....will that actually mean no-deal cannot happen? or is there some way it still can?

20silkcut

sondagefaux wrote: »

They didn't win 45% of the vote in the European elections, which aren't in any case an indication of how people would vote in a referendum.

Especially since European elections have never been taken very seriously in the UK, even less so when people were voting in the expectation that the UK would be leaving the EU in a matter of months.

If there was a referendum tomorrow with a choice between two leave options (i.e. Remain was not on the ballot), I have no doubt at all that a 'soft Brexit', with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market (with NI alone remaining in a customs union with the EU), would beat No Deal Brexit hands down.

We are not getting a referendum though.
Remainers are highly concentrated in London and other big urban centres but are much more diffuse across more rural constituencies. The Tory’s have a huge geographical spread across massive swathes of England. Unless there is a pact amongst remain party’s in a general election the Tory’s could return with a majority or something similar to what we have at the moment with the DUP still significant players. That would be a disaster.

A Shropshire Lad

Forty Seven wrote: »

The entire civil service is unelected, as are our judges, as is the governor of the bank of England.



They all have much more sway over our country than the house of lords.

Civil servents and judges dont vote on legislation

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.

And, it'll be the month of November with electioneering. So, 2019 will go down as a year when the British Government basically did nothing. Impressive. Then the election's over in December, just in time for holidays by Parliament or whatever.

Pretty sad. No wonder the UK citizens are so p*ssed. Government takes years, gets nothing done. Kind of what led to the Russians feeding the flames of Brexit with willing slime-lackeys like Farage, Cumming and Banks to translate the rubles to paralyzing the UK government.

cryptocurrency

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He started the week loudly claiming he did not want an election.

The only reason he wants one now is that he has lost control of parliament, his majority, 20+ Mps and his first 3 votes as PM, the first PM in history to do so.

His very last hope to stay in #10 and avoid being the worst PM ever is to win a majority in an election, so now he needs one.

And Corbyn will let him have one after his "Do or die" deadline of 31 Oct has passed and No Deal is deferred to 2020.

47 is right, the purge of the remainers is all part of a bigger tactic now as was the in the ditch statement. Parliament vs the people now going into overdrive. "drain the swamp" now being used in the UK political sphere today on the media too.

Interesting times.

Roger_007

Bambi wrote: »

What I heard around the time of the last extension, was the French and others were not agreeing to another extension under any circumstances and actually now want the UK out of the EU.

It is almost comical, (if it wasn't so serious), the way that the UK is 'threatening' the EU with a no-deal exit if they don't get a satisfactory deal. Boris reckons that this is his trump card.
What they don't seem to understand is that the EU have a much stronger trump card. They are under no obligation to offer the U.K. any deal at all.
At this stage I reckon that if it wasn't for the Ireland problem, the EU would have long since told the UK to just bugger off and I think we are not far from the point where that may happen anyway.
As for the possibility that REMAIN might be an option, does anyone on any side seriously think that the UK could just carry on being members of the EU as if the past three years didn't happen. The well of good will has been poisoned irrevocably. REMAIN is not an option any more. The UK should count themselves lucky that there is any deal at all still on offer.

Forty Seven

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd be very loathe to predict any outcome at this stage. There's one thing for sure though, Johnson is a polarising figure. A lot more than I thought he would be, and he's not exactly covering himself in glory at the moment.

That really depends which way you look at him. He is a hero to the leavers. He has masterfully taken control of the Brexit parties position to protect his own voter base and has now got the strong backing of half the country who see him as a strong leader.


Everyone else views him as a fool. He is neither. He knows exactly what he is doing and he is do or die foolish with it. A very dangerous game is being played here but he had no choice with the Brexit party fielding candidates and breathing down his neck he had to take this position.



The remain vote is split across all parties. The leave vote is right behind Boris now. He is gambling on restoring the majority May lost and if he gets his election he will likely manage it. If he gets in bed with Farrage (who looks to have no choice if offered) to pick up the Northern Labour strongholds that voted leave he will dominate the commons and repeal the no deal block. I think he is willing to take the extension but will show he has been 'forced' to do so and use this to further consolidate his base. The purge shows he is not messing. Getting rid of serious players like Ken Clarke really drove the dagger home.


He now has Orpington to drop any unelectable into without worry and got rid of a cabinet remainer too. His brothers parting words like water off a ducks back. The prorogue appears to just be a signal of intent. I see us with a strong leave majority in the house in January threatening no deal as before and waiting for the EU to blink, what he expects to gain from it I have no idea but I believe that's his aim and that this power play will work.

20silkcut

Roger_007 wrote: »

It is almost comical, (if it wasn't so serious), the way that the UK is 'threatening' the EU with a no-deal exit if they don't get a satisfactory deal. Boris reckons that this is his trump card.
What they don't seem to understand is that the EU have a much stronger trump card. They are under no obligation to offer the U.K. any deal at all.
At this stage I reckon that if it wasn't for the Ireland problem, the EU would have long since told the UK to just bugger off and I think we are not far from the point where that may happen anyway.
As for the possibility that REMAIN might be an option, does anyone on any side seriously think that the UK could just carry on being members of the EU as if the past three years didn't happen. The well of good will has been poisoned irrevocably. REMAIN is not an option any more. The UK should count themselves lucky that there is any deal at all still on offer.

It can all be forgotten if the electorate swings strongly to remain. But will that happen??

cryptocurrency

20silkcut wrote: »

It can all be forgotten if the electorate swings strongly to remain.

what hope is that really? Spend some time in the UK outside of London and you will know they have no hope

um7y1h83ge06nx

It's getting all very suicidal in many ways. The British PM would rather be dead than look for an extension and this constant use of no deal against the EU is metaphorical Britain putting a gun to its head and threatening to pull the trigger if they don't get their way.

So much bitterness then among themselves, it's going to take a lot of time to mend this mess.

martingriff

MikeSoys wrote: »

so maybe idiot Q here but lords look likely to approve proposal to BLOCK a no deal; queen will rubber stamp it
....will that actually mean no-deal cannot happen? or is there some way it still can?

to paraphrase Anne Robinson on the weakest link the EU could say you are having no more extensions GOODBYE

First Up

Forty Seven wrote:

That really depends which way you look at him. He is a hero to the leavers. He has masterfully taken control of the Brexit parties position to protect his own voter base and has now got the strong backing of half the country who see him as a strong leader.

Meanwhile UK companies are been cut out of the European supply chains where they get almost half their business and mobile capital and technology from the US and Asia is revising its investment plans.

A masterful hero and strong leader for sure.