Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

sdanseo

lawred2 wrote: »

This parliament does not need an election to take control... A VONC puts an end to the Tories.

You mean a "caretaker" government? Of course very possible but not sustainable.

Change of power without an election is absolutely legal but would be deeply unpopular and negate any traction Labour / opposition in general have made lately.

I am less fearful of the EU selling us out over the backstop after reading the below and hearing an EU negotiatior on the radio early essentialy saying the commission has entirely lost its patience. The backstop is presently as close as it will ever get to sacrosact.
I also genuinely believe that Boris wants a no deal but that ultimately the threat of breaking up the union will at best, make him fail in that aim and at worst, break up the damn union once and for all. Which isn't exactly a tragic worst case. Short term pain for long term gain from our perspective - if you consider NI a long term gain of course. We all know it's not in the short term.

jm08 wrote: »

Article in Financial Times (paywall) about attitudes to Brexit in Europe.

How Europe views the Brexit endgame
The EU’s decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out — fast

https://www.ft.com/content/110207f2-cea2-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6

In brief:

1. European decision makers have lost patience with Britain and want it out, fast.

2. European will continue to sound friendly and open to negotiations.
3. Would rather have no-deal Brexit than drop backstop. Fears of renewed conflict on Irish border makes it non-negotiable because peace is the EU's core mission.
4. European business is not lobbying against no deal. They don't want to have to compete with a deregulated UK.
5. They don't see huge economic damage - Ireland expects short term damage.
6. Southern Europeans couldn't give two tosses about it.


Brussels expect Britain to reopen talks within a week. Initially will allow Irish border to be porous, but will be checking continental ports (causing delays and shortages in the UK).

Forty Seven

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Some people lose all credibility over time. Some in a moment.

I edited my post when I realised what it sounded like. Please read it again.

Christy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They could argue the GFA is two sides and the backstop isolates the other. Then they are back to both sides need an alternative to save GFA

This is a UK action that hurts the GFA. Ireland have done nothing but try and keep its status quo.

Ireland have given potential solutions in the backstop/NI only backstop. The UK has offered nothing and has just sat there giving out that other people have not done all the work for them.

cryptocurrency

Christy42 wrote: »

This is a UK action that hurts the GFA. Ireland have done nothing but try and keep its status quo.

Ireland have given potential solutions in the backstop/NI only backstop. The UK has offered nothing and has just sat there giving out that other people have not done all the work for them.

Unionsts would feel isolated if left alone.

And also the UK can't be bound into a union that they want to leave.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd be very loathe to predict any outcome at this stage. There's one thing for sure though, Johnson is a polarising figure. A lot more than I thought he would be, and he's not exactly covering himself in glory at the moment.

Cummings is going to have to work his big brain very hard to try and turn the perception of Johnson around I think,

Wakefield's weary voters: 'Johnson never speaks to normal folk'

Like a touring pantomime villain, Boris Johnson swept into Wakefield to a chorus of jeers. A hastily-assembled crowd chanted “where’s your brother gone?” and waved EU flags as the prime minister bounded into the West Yorkshire city hours after the surprise resignation of his sibling and cabinet colleague.

Most people met his arrival with a weary sigh. “They promise you this and that and it never materialises. We’ve no reason to trust them,” said Clare Ramsden, 44, over a counter of golden-brown pastries at Thomas the Baker. “They’re sat in their office dictating to you, and he [Johnson] has got all this money but he never speaks to normal folk.”

The article goes on to speak to voters and you can see why Labour has been reticent to go for Remain, but I feel the time has come to tell the truth to the voters. If they think Farage will be good for them in the long run then let them suffer.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Quit, or refuse. Paint himself as a do or die brexiteer and the rest of parliament against the people

I don't think Johnson should be calling for a election after the reception he got today in Leeds,

https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1169661176105639937?s=20

That is Yorkshire where he apparently will win the vote. I am sure a waffling rich old Etonian is exactly the person to pull the people out of the misery of the last 9 years.

Forty Seven wrote: »

Just saw Leo looking very dejected telling a crowd the bad news on the BBC. He said there will be checks on the border.



How likely are we to see the troubles back if the border becomes an issue?

I will take the word of the previous Chief Constable and the current one as well who said a return is likely. The blame will then be squarely on the doorstep of the liars and charlatans who ran the Leave campaigns.

Just to add to those thinking the Tories will easily win, they have a massive problem with their image and Rees-Mogg lying down in parliament like the proceedings bored him and him taking on Dr Nicholl will not have gone unnoticed. I hope enough people will realize the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg care only for themselves. I mean they should have had enough warnings already you would think.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1169677021565374465?s=20

That is the Chief Medical Officer standing by Dr Nicholl after he compared him to the anti-vaxxer who lost his medical license due to his use of misleading information to advance his point of view. Rees-Mogg did this under Parliamentary Privilege so he cannot be sued, but he was challenged by Dr Nicholl to tell it to his face outside of parliament. To no surprise this was not taken up by Rees-Mogg.

Forty Seven

To be fair you will hardly going to get a report saying he was welcomed in Wakefield from the Guardian. The guy shouting at him has a strong Irish accent so can we really take this at face value? Wakefield voted strongly for leave. 66.3% in favour. The Guardian is incredibly biased.

Shelga

3 Brexiters, 3 Remainers on QT, all ripping into each other. 6 panelists is far too many, should be 3 or 4 in my opinion.

It's about as civilised as sea lion feeding time at the zoo, as you can imagine. Emily Thornberry raised incredibly valid concerns about food and medicine shortages in the case of a no deal Brexit, and was jeered and scoffed at aggressively by Kwarteng and Tice, both vile individuals.

What a toxic, horrible, brainwashed arena UK politics is at the moment.

Naggdefy

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Unionsts would feel isolated if left alone.

And also the UK can't be bound into a union that they want to leave.

We couldn't have Unionists feeling left alone but fine to leave Nationalists to suffer under Unionist rule for a century.

Mr.Nice Guy

The trilemma that Ivan Rogers tried to explain to May is still there:

You can have just 2 but not all 3 of the following:

1. No hard border in Ireland
2. No divergence between GB/NI
3. UK out of Customs Union

There's no way in hell they are going to want to stay in a Customs Union, so it's a choice between 1 and 2.

The tactic seems to be to insist they will not put up a hard border, while through their actions bringing about the very scenario that will make this an inevitability.

Johnson won't speak of divergence - he may need the DUP - or talk positively about the backstop prior to an election. The only question is whether he would be willing to discard the DUP in the event of achieving a majority in Westminster and go for divergence via the NI-only backstop.

Given we know the likes of Gove have opposed the GFA in the past, I think it's more likely they will break their promise on option 1 and bring in a hard border - while blaming it on everyone but themselves.

Water John

Mogg has apologised. Had no option really.
The Jo Johnson resignation is doing Alexander Johnson severe damage.

Enzokk

Forty Seven wrote: »

To be fair you will hardly going to get a report saying he was welcomed in Wakefield from the Guardian. The guy shouting at him has a strong Irish accent so can we really take this at face value? Wakefield voted strongly for leave. 66.3% in favour. The Guardian is incredibly biased.

If you had read the article you would have seen that when the reporters actually went out to talk to the people there was actually support for Johnson and Farage. If anything other than the line about him being jeered it showed that the town has not moved to Remain. That supports your cause right now to leave the EU, that seems to me to be very fair reporting from The Guardian.

In any case, so the proposals I believe the UK has come up on the backstop has been mentioned before, but here is a thread expanding what was apparently suggested by the UK.

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1169642575130701829?s=20

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1169642577424977921?s=20

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1169642579668930561?s=20

Basically take the Trump sharpie and cross out any mention of the backstop like it didn't exist. Only the citizens rights, common electricity market and the CTA survives from the backstop. The border will sorted after they have left and any references to the future relationship in the backstop needs to go as well.

In return for this the UK expects a trade deal better than the recent one with Canada, minus the level playing field and dispute resolution mechanism. I hope Frost did all of this with determination and energy, because these items might seem out of reach unless you really believe.

Christy42

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Unionsts would feel isolated if left alone.

And also the UK can't be bound into a union that they want to leave.

The UK may come with a solution to leave the union without breaking the treaties it signed up to. Again this should have been discussed before the vote. Again they seem to be waiting for other people to do their homework for them and then complaining it hasn't been done good enough.

By the way I feel said unionists should have figured out how this would play out before supporting leave.

CrabRevolution

Enzokk wrote: »

Cummings is going to have to work his big brain very hard to try and turn the perception of Johnson around I think,

Wakefield's weary voters: 'Johnson never speaks to normal folk'

The article goes on to speak to voters and you can see why Labour has been reticent to go for Remain, but I feel the time has come to tell the truth to the voters. If they think Farage will be good for them in the long run then let them suffer.

I don't think Johnson should be calling for a election after the reception he got today in Leeds,

https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1169661176105639937?s=20

That is Yorkshire where he apparently will win the vote. I am sure a waffling rich old Etonian is exactly the person to pull the people out of the misery of the last 9 years.

I will take the word of the previous Chief Constable and the current one as well who said a return is likely. The blame will then be squarely on the doorstep of the liars and charlatans who ran the Leave campaigns.

Just to add to those thinking the Tories will easily win, they have a massive problem with their image and Rees-Mogg lying down in parliament like the proceedings bored him and him taking on Dr Nicholl will not have gone unnoticed. I hope enough people will realize the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg care only for themselves. I mean they should have had enough warnings already you would think.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1169677021565374465?s=20

That is the Chief Medical Officer standing by Dr Nicholl after he compared him to the anti-vaxxer who lost his medical license due to his use of misleading information to advance his point of view. Rees-Mogg did this under Parliamentary Privilege so he cannot be sued, but he was challenged by Dr Nicholl to tell it to his face outside of parliament. To no surprise this was not taken up by Rees-Mogg.

It won't make a difference to the Brexit zealots, as that line has long been crossed. Because they support brexit, a politician (or accountant or bricklayer or anything...) must know more about medicine than one of the nation's top neurosurgeons.

FrancieBrady

Labour panelist on QT walked onto massive sucker punch there. 'Negotiate a deal then campaign for remain in new referendum'.

A Dub in Glasgo

Shelga wrote: »

3 Brexiters, 3 Remainers on QT, all ripping into each other. 6 panelists is far too many, should be 3 or 4 in my opinion.

It's about as civilised as sea lion feeding time at the zoo, as you can imagine. Emily Thornberry raised incredibly valid concerns about food and medicine shortages in the case of a no deal Brexit, and was jeered and scoffed at aggressively by Kwarteng and Tice, both vile individuals.

What a toxic, horrible, brainwashed arena UK politics is at the moment.

It is a car crash and Bruce is out of her depth

Water John

A panel of Conservative recent staff was damning of Johnson and his chances in an election on Newsnight.

cj maxx

I have a horrible thought that Johnson has somehow pulled of an amazing political coup

LeinsterDub

cjmc wrote: »

I have a horrible thought that Johnson has somehow pulled of an amazing political coup

Do you care to elaborate on this? How has he? What sort of coup ?

Forty Seven

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is a car crash and Bruce is out of her depth

She's turning it into a pantomime.

Forty Seven

cjmc wrote: »

I have a horrible thought that Johnson has somehow pulled of an amazing political coup

I too share this disturbing feeling.

MikeSoys

if there is checkpoints...for the agri sector could this be done in the marts and factories?
...allot cattle to those locations where the admin ssection can process?

Infini

Water John wrote: »

A panel of Conservative recent staff was damning of Johnson and his chances in an election on Newsnight.

Honestly I think that should be there an election and people start asking hard questions about his platform it's likely to end badly for him. He doesn't have time, has Farage siphoning his votes and his arguments are all hollow and devoid of any ground in reality. He's alienated himself from people by appointing that spiteful git Cummings along with a Leader of the House (Moggles) who literally doesn't care and looks like hes stuck 2 centuries behind everyone else while treating people with contempt and slandering a Doctor who's trying to make a valid point.

The way they're acting now could cause a collapse in their vote and farage could end up siphoning votes to the point Labour and others clean house even more so if the opposition organises itself tactically to capture seats by not competing in areas with lower support or encouraging those voters to vote for their allied parties.

When there is an election called it's likely it will be as important as a 2nd Referendum itself and there's a good chance it could dislodge the Tories and restore some credibilty and sanity.

BonnieSituation

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Unionsts would feel isolated if left alone.

And also the UK can't be bound into a union that they want to leave.

Just like Nationalists have for 100 years? The poor sausages.

At least they'll keep the vote, will not be subject to sectarian gerrymandering and have their culture protected.

cryptocurrency

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Just like Nationalists have for 100 years? The poor sausages.

At least they'll keep the vote, will not be subject to sectarian gerrymandering and have their culture protected.

It's always there isn't it. I lost count of the amount of Irish when the unionists are mentioned over brexit I hear "f*** them"

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

3 Brexiters, 3 Remainers on QT, all ripping into each other. 6 panelists is far too many, should be 3 or 4 in my opinion.

It's about as civilised as sea lion feeding time at the zoo, as you can imagine. Emily Thornberry raised incredibly valid concerns about food and medicine shortages in the case of a no deal Brexit, and was jeered and scoffed at aggressively by Kwarteng and Tice, both vile individuals.

What a toxic, horrible, brainwashed arena UK politics is at the moment.

The panel and audience were more polarised than ever (probably not a coincidence now that Johnson and Cummings are in charge of the country).

prawnsambo

cjmc wrote: »

I have a horrible thought that Johnson has somehow pulled of an amazing political coup

Forty Seven wrote: »

I too share this disturbing feeling.

It's quite normal. Everybody gets it. You're watching a charlatan reach the point where they actually have to do something and can't bluff any more. And when they continue to bluff, you think that they can't be that vacuous, there has to be a cunning plan behind the bluff and bluster. Unfortunately not. It's just bluff and bluster.

Up to the point where he went to the Queen for the prorogation, he almost had me fooled too.

Forty Seven

BBC go straight from a brexit discussion to a documentary about a Roma criminal gang from Poland running a slavery ring in the UK.

Water John

Sorry Prawn, he was always a charlatan and a liar to me and his brother knows it too.
Jo has made the supreme sacrafice to ensure the country isn't destroyed. His resignation along with the treatment of the 21 classic conservatives will resonate.

Forty seven, I wouldn't refer to the Ozzbourns as a Roma criminal gang???

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

Sorry Prawn, he was always a charlatan and a liar to me and his brother knows it too.
Jo has made the supreme sacrafice to ensure the country isn't destroyed. His resignation along with the treatment of the 21 classic conservatives will resonate.

I think you misunderstood me. The thing that I was almost fooled by was that he had a cunning plan.

Water John

He is an empty vessel and its being filled by Cummings.

PMQ was shockingly poor so too was his public performance today. The Tories bought a pig in a poke.