Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ath262

Tony Connelly's update on recent developments....

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1163778616607629312

prawnsambo

The spin from the UK government is getting up to speed. We have the makings of internal negotiation failure incoming. Set out a negotiating position during an agreed negotiation freeze, fly it over Europe via kite and declare negotiations finished when it fails to get off the ground.
What a time to be alive.
Oh and somehow there's now a difference between the EU and the EU27.

trellheim

Prediction. Johnson's commitment to the GFA in his letter is quite telling. It's a sure sign he will go for the Withdrawal Agreement so long as only NI is in the backstop. But he needs more numbers in Parliament to do it without the DUP. Hence why a GE before 31/10 is coming.

https://twitter.com/Lewis_North90/status/1163776661785141252

Chicken entrails, but still

Tell me how

prawnsambo wrote: »

The spin from the UK government is getting up to speed. We have the makings of internal negotiation failure incoming. Set out a negotiating position during an agreed negotiation freeze, fly it over Europe via kite and declare negotiations finished when it fails to get off the ground.

Future generations won't know the absolute ridiculous things that have gone on over the last 3 years.
It'll all just be surmised in to; The referendum was held, Cameron resigned, May became PM and negotiated a withdrawal agreement which failed to be accepted by Parliament so she resigned to be replaced by Johnson who was unable to renegotiate and so (Option A - the UK left without a deal) (Option B - Who knows?)

They won't be told of all the scratch your head and wonder did that just happen moments which occurred. Maybe they main players all know this and they can keep to their narrative even if it is not based in reality.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Lewis_North90/status/1163776661785141252

Chicken entrails, but still

Good to know I'm not the only one who thinks this. Although, it's the obvious solution that <just> requires a majority in parliament.

Water John

No doubt Johnson is going on the bet of winning a Tory majority. Only question is the GE, a few days before or a few days after 31st Oct.
Before means he wants to ditch DUP and sign a WA. After 31st means he wants to be remembered for having taken the UK out of the EU, whether he wins the election or not.
That is the only choice he has left to make.

Nody

Water John wrote: »

No doubt Johnson is going on the bet of winning a Tory majority. Only question is the GE, a few days before or a few days after 31st Oct.
Before means he wants to ditch DUP and sign a WA. After 31st means he wants to be remembered for having taken the UK out of the EU, whether he wins the election or not.
That is the only choice he has left to make.

I'd argue he be a fool to do it after simply because the most chaotic days by definition are the first couple of days until people/transit routes etc. start to learn the new lay of the land. Hence short of relying on a majority of people voting early would mean voting after Brexit would be done with the newspapers filled with chaotic headlines, images of truck queues etc. In short I think before 31st no matter his inclination is the most likely answer (and if he does not get a majority he can back bench complain about how he would have taken them out when the opposition seeks an extension etc.).

Quin_Dub

Water John wrote: »

No doubt Johnson is going on the bet of winning a Tory majority. Only question is the GE, a few days before or a few days after 31st Oct.
Before means he wants to ditch DUP and sign a WA. After 31st means he wants to be remembered for having taken the UK out of the EU, whether he wins the election or not.
That is the only choice he has left to make.

He knows that an election after the 31st will kill the Tories long term.

They might win the election , but they'll get no deals the US and as a "3rd Country" they will get taken to the cleaners by the EU.

His only hope is an early election and kicking the DUP to the kerb.

The reality is , given the utter shambles that is the Labour party under Corbyn, Johnson will be the leader of the largest party after the next election , the only question is whether he has a majority or continues to need help from others.

If he wins a majority , then it's Irish Sea backstop and the WA . if he doesn't then it's no deal.

There's no upside for him that I can see by waiting until after the 31st for the GE.

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

I'd argue he be a fool to do it after simply because the most chaotic days by definition are the first couple of days until people/transit routes etc. start to learn the new lay of the land. Hence short of relying on a majority of people voting early would mean voting after Brexit would be done with the newspapers filled with chaotic headlines, images of truck queues etc. In short I think before 31st no matter his inclination is the most likely answer (and if he does not get a majority he can back bench complain about how he would have taken them out when the opposition seeks an extension etc.).

Also his options would be severely limited afterwards. If his gamble doesn't pay off and he doesn't get a majority, he has precious little to offer a putative partner in government if they've already left. He may be a charlatan and a proven iiar, but I don't doubt his political acumen.

Water John

He could go for the 1st Nov. Brexit done and chaos not yet started.

J Mysterio

Nice headline in Independent

'Johnson’s Brexit backstop plan in disarray as EU rejects it and US leaders vow to block trade deal'.

The situation is so fraught. Im stressed out and fatigued from three relentless year of this, and I dont have anything particular at stake (business, family etc.). Can you imagine how those at risk feel? Those in Irish/ NI border counties, those wirh businesses in NI/ UK? Brexit will literally end peoples lives.

The UK is unbelievably cavalier in their approach. They should be utterly ashamed of themselves. Brexiteers and the last two UK governments have absolutely destroyed the UK reputation and are doing their best to destroy their economy and society also. History can not and will not let them off the hook for this.

peter kern

PeadarCo wrote: »

The UK won't have it's own standards in practice . It will have to make choices on which standards to either directly follow the standards of the block it aligns itself with or so closely that it makes no difference(and if that economic block decides to make drastic changes the UK would be forced to do the same). Look at Ireland since independence, a lot of UK standards have been accepted more or less because it's the most practical option. The same will apply to UK Post Brexit. However the UK like Ireland in the past will have no influence over them. The UK will have standards and laws imposed by pure economics post Brexit. That's what being a small country and economy entails as Irelands economic history pre EU shows. Relative to the EU, the UK outside the block is small.

could you make a prediciton what will happen to 3 pin plugs in ireland and the uk

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

He could go for the 1st Nov. Brexit done and chaos not yet started.

I don't believe so. The narrative will be all about brexit and not about him and his hunt for a majority. And look at his message that he's pumping out all the time: "We want to do a deal, but we'll leave without one" is aimed at the hard brexiters and those who want a deal. And even those who are for remain but are war weary, he is holding out the possibility that it will all be over.

Bit cynical

PeadarCo wrote: »

could you make a prediciton what will happen to 3 pin plugs in ireland and the uk

I don't think we in Ireland will be going back to 2 pin plugs.

fash

peter kern wrote: »

could you make a prediciton what will happen to 3 pin plugs in ireland and the uk

It would make sense for Ireland to do what is done in China- where the sockets accept a variety of plug types.

prawnsambo

peter kern wrote: »

could you make a prediciton what will happen to 3 pin plugs in ireland and the uk

Since most of them are manufactured outside the UK, nothing will happen.

Nody

Water John wrote: »

He could go for the 1st Nov. Brexit done and chaos not yet started.

Queue doctors/hospitals saying they don't know if they can get "insert medical stuff" due to Brexit as the rules are not clear etc. That kind of stuff you can write in advance and publish on the day which is why I'm still inclined to do it before. You get (as noted by Prawn) the negotiation power with a potential partner, you can blame the opposition if you don't get a majority as they will need to ask for an extension and get to play backseat the whole way as they try to fix things.

prawnsambo

Nody wrote: »

Queue doctors/hospitals saying they don't know if they can get "insert medical stuff" due to Brexit as the rules are not clear etc. That kind of stuff you can write in advance and publish on the day which is why I'm still inclined to do it before. You get (as noted by Quin) the negotiation power with a potential partner, you can blame the opposition if you don't get a majority as they will need to ask for an extension and get to play backseat the whole way as they try to fix things.

Just a small correction; Quin said it was no deal if he didn't get a majority.

prawnsambo wrote: »

Also his options would be severely limited afterwards. If his gamble doesn't pay off and he doesn't get a majority, he has precious little to offer a putative partner in government if they've already left. He may be a charlatan and a proven iiar, but I don't doubt his political acumen.

Water John

It's fine with me if he goes for it before the 31st. If he gets the majority, dumps DUP and puts the border down the Irish sea.
Odds are no one will get a majority and neither Johnson or Corbyn will be acceptable as PM. Swinson and Sturgeon will be calling the shots.

Nody

prawnsambo wrote: »

Just a small correction; Quin said it was no deal if he didn't get a majority.

Sorry; what I get for multitasking and trusting my memory

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Future generations won't know the absolute ridiculous things that have gone on over the last 3 years.
It'll all just be surmised in to; The referendum was held, Cameron resigned, May became PM and negotiated a withdrawal agreement which failed to be accepted by Parliament so she resigned to be replaced by Johnson who was unable to renegotiate and so (Option A - the UK left without a deal) (Option B - Who knows?)

They won't be told of all the scratch your head and wonder did that just happen moments which occurred. Maybe they main players all know this and they can keep to their narrative even if it is not based in reality.

That's no different than how history books in UK schools currently appear to present many aspects of their history.

CelticRambler

Nody wrote: »

the most chaotic days by definition are the first couple of days until people/transit routes etc. start to learn the new lay of the land.

On the contrary, the people most likely to be severely affected by the new lay of the land will (have already) taken steps to avoid trading and travelling during this period of uncertainty (c.f. the pet-owners who opted to go for full "third-country" health-checks and rabies antibodies re-certification in March so that they could take their dogs on holidays at Easter).

Similarly, those stockpiles are still piled (renewed, but not run down) and will be available for the first few weeks after Brexit-day. Other than the whooping of hard Brexiters celebrating in the streets, most British citizens will sleepwalk through November thinking that a no-deal Brexit hasn't been that bad after all ... So possibly the best time of all to run an election - and blame the winter of discontent on all those voters who didn't give the Tories a landslide majority.

I still can't see a functional HoC being returned to Westminster in an autumn election, but one way or another, I'm pretty sure Arlene's Christmas present this year will be two fingers from London and a red line down the Irish Sea.

Valhallapt

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think we in Ireland will be going back to 2 pin plugs.

I wouldn’t bet on it. Supply chains will change and we’ll get 2 pin plugs with an adapter thrown in. A lot of three pins are certified via British standards and then can be sold throughout the EU via single market equivalency rules, all that ends with Brexit. So for many manufacturers it’s just going to be easier to sell one product into the whole EU and for Ireland just throw in an adapter.

Bit cynical

Valhallapt wrote: »

I wouldn’t bet on it. Supply chains will change and we’ll get 2 pin plugs with an adapter thrown in. A lot of three pins are certified via British standards and then can be sold throughout the EU via single market equivalency rules, all that ends with Brexit. So for many manufacturers it’s just going to be easier to sell one product into the whole EU and for Ireland just throw in an adapter.

True. I should really have said two pin sockets we won't be going back to.

Quin_Dub

prawnsambo wrote: »

Just a small correction; Quin said it was no deal if he didn't get a majority.

Nody wrote: »

Sorry; what I get for multitasking and trusting my memory

It's probably a sliding scale -

If it's a Tory Majority then it's Irish Sea Backstop and WA

If he basically maintains the status quo in terms of seats , then it's No-Deal as he's backed himself into a corner.

If the situation is actually made worse (a la May) then I think he pulls the plug and lets the other side deal with the shambles he's left behind.

Whether that's an extension to try to fix things or a default crash out , Johnson gets to claim that he'd have done a better job if only he'd be given the mandate blah blah blah..

The worst case for Johnson is if he holds an Election and nothing really changes. Win Big he gets to deliver a best possible scenario for Brexit , Lose big he gets to hurl from the ditch while the opposition flounders.

Status Quo though and he (and the Tories) are directly in the firing line for everything that will go wrong.

trellheim

How many times ! Johnson CANNOT hold an election by himself - need a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons OR a VONC so effectively Labour must co-operate in this BS ( and yes I am well aware of the Labour incessant desire for a GE )

prawnsambo

Valhallapt wrote: »

I wouldn’t bet on it. Supply chains will change and we’ll get 2 pin plugs with an adapter thrown in. A lot of three pins are certified via British standards and then can be sold throughout the EU via single market equivalency rules, all that ends with Brexit. So for many manufacturers it’s just going to be easier to sell one product into the whole EU and for Ireland just throw in an adapter.

I did a straw poll of a random selection of three pin plugs in my house and all were certified to British Standard. Most were manufactured in China. So there is unlikely to be a change in availability, just a divergence of standards unless the EU give them a CE marks as well.

Quin_Dub

trellheim wrote: »

How many times ! Johnson CANNOT hold an election by himself - need a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons OR a VONC so effectively Labour must co-operate in this BS ( and yes I am well aware of the Labour incessant desire for a GE )

Absolutely - But Corbyn has committed to calling for the VONC and if Johnson wants an election then I can see the ERG (or some of them) tactically supporting the VONC to force the election.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

How many times ! Johnson CANNOT hold an election by himself - need a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons OR a VONC so effectively Labour must co-operate in this BS ( and yes I am well aware of the Labour incessant desire for a GE )

Yep. The VONC is the most likely route. But he can also lose a Queen's speech vote on day 1. And that is traditionally seen as the equivalent of a VONC. There was some speculation as to whether May would have one before she lost her job.

trellheim

VONC has to be moved , VONC + 25 (working ) days = General Election. ALSO Civil service goes into Purdah at the worst possible time , no-one at the wheel for over a month and a half and you end up with a new govt 2 weeks before Oct 31, assuming VONC week 1 of parliament's return

This is risky stuff indeed.

The alternative is to beg for an a50 extension for the GE but it would lose them 50 seats to the Brexit party - for breaking the out-on-31-october promises