Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

No . Remember that although Cummings seems to be hamfisted at parliamentary shenanigans, he is world class at campaigning - he led Vote Leave to victory. ( and still not a member of the Tory party )

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

No . Remember that although Cummings seems to be hamfisted at parliamentary shenanigans, he is world class at campaigning - he led Vote Leave to victory. ( and still not a member of the Tory party )

Even this is disputed. People who knew him said he was just as obnoxious and abrasive during the referendum campaign, falling out with colleagues at the drop of a hat.

J Mysterio

trellheim wrote: »

No . Remember that although Cummings seems to be hamfisted at parliamentary shenanigans, he is world class at campaigning - he led Vote Leave to victory. ( and still not a member of the Tory party )

Cummings clearly took a leaf from the Trump playbook for the leave campaign. He used various underhanded and illegal tactics in voter manipulation, information theft, fraud and illegal funding. It worked for the leave vote, but he's run out of steam now and the jig is quite clearly up. Presumably why he was running around Westminster pissed, looking for some press office. Boris is finished and so is Cummings, they will leave Westminster together, in disgrace.

Water John

Johnson seemed very subdued in his interview in Scotland today. The hole he has dug for himself has dawned on him. He promised to return from the EU with a deal.

Headshot

ath262 wrote: »

after their meeting the opposition parties have said they will all vote against or abstain on Monday's Vote on an election

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1169923732627959809

This exactly what I hope would happen. Great to see the opposition working together here and I have to to give credit to Corbyn here that he's strategy is spot on and it will his best ever chance of getting to be PM.

Imagine seeing BJ going to EU summit and asking for an extension, it will be humiliating and the end of BJ

Water John

He says he'll go and bring home a deal. He knows he's out of time. The law says he must ask for an Ext.

ath262

interesting suggestion from (Prof.) Brian Cox - inadvertent consequence of the sacking of Grieve, Letwin, Clarke etc handed experienced politicians to the opposition

https://twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/status/1169934382074912769

Strazdas

ath262 wrote: »

interesting suggestion from (Prof.) Brian Cox - inadvertent consequence of the sacking of Grieve, Letwin, Clarke etc handed experienced politicians to the opposition

https://twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/status/1169934382074912769

One of Cummings' numerous blunders. Make a big dramatic gesture without even thinking through the consequences of it.

Shelga

I suppose that Johnson is touring the UK at the moment as he was expecting to be in election mode, but why is he bothering with Scotland?

Surely the Tories know that this is a lost cause and his time would be better spent elsewhere.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

One of Cummings' numerous blunders. Make a big dramatic gesture without even thinking through the consequences of it.

TBF, what choice did they have. You cannot stay in the party whilst voting against their ability to control parliament.

One of TM's biggest failings was her inability to hold her own party to one direction, she allowed even ministers to vote against her. You cannot lead like that.

Enzokk

serfboard wrote: »

Yep - they now want an election in November, and no amount of childish name-calling and meming is going to change their mind.

And it's the right thing for them to do.

For one, Johnson is so untrustworthy that they can't guarantee when precisely he would call the election. Having it in November means he has to ask the EU for an extension. Which also means that the Brexit Party takes massive chunks out of the Tories if that's the case.

If the Tories and Cummings want an election on the 15th October then you do everything to not give it to them. Why did they pick that date? What is their plans? Those are the questions one would hope the opposition is asking themselves.

General election date aimed to restrict student vote, Boris Johnson aides admit

I was able to access the article without paying but registering. Here are a few highlights though,

Boris Johnson’s campaign team have privately admitted that one of the advantages of an October 15 election was that it could limit the number of students registering to vote.

No 10 is said to have factored in term times in deciding to push for an early election as it would mean campaigns had less time to ensure that students registered to vote. Those on the electoral roll at their home address would be less likely to travel to vote.

A large turnout of younger voters in the June 2017 election is thought to have contributed to the Conservatives losing their majority. Labour has also promised to scrap tuition fees.

One million people have registered to vote since Mr Johnson became prime minister, government data shows. Rumblings of a general election have spurred 200,000 people to sign up this week, with 82,000 of them doing so yesterday as the first attempt to force a poll failed in the Commons.

Under-35s made up 60 per cent of yesterday’s registrations. These could be first-time voters, although the rise may be partly attributed to young people re-registering because their address had changed.

It is very rare that the opposition has the power when to call an election and this is now in the hands of those parties. They should not squander it by doing exactly what Cummings and Johnson want. Let him break more promises or resign if he won't ask for an extension, wait for it to be enacted on the word from the UK that a general election will be held to try and break the impasse.

trellheim wrote: »

No . Remember that although Cummings seems to be hamfisted at parliamentary shenanigans, he is world class at campaigning - he led Vote Leave to victory. ( and still not a member of the Tory party )

He won a yes/no referendum by breaking the law. That doesn't make him world class, this election he will not get away with it as the courts will interfere whereas last time they didn't because it was only advisory.

Upstream

ElectronVolt wrote: »

I've been watching this thread for a while and decided to register and post. I was just wondering does anyone else notice that they're trying to 'poison search' using memes? It's quite clever when you look at it, and something that's not unusual in guerrilla marketing / PR.

Take the search word 'lie', 'lies', 'lying' and so on and any other keywords like Westminster, or any of the key front benchers.
If you search those now, you get various memes of Jacob Rees-Mogg lying down and endless social media comments, reposts and so on that have basically pushed down that particular keyword combination way down the list and will push any stories about lying etc down the list too in various social media platforms - e.g. if you've a story from let's say the Guardian mentioning the word 'lies' it's very likely to be swamped by JRM draped over the bench and thousands of social media users will retweet, edit, make jokes and propagate that image all over the web.

If you also look at the rather bizarre story about Boris Johnson making busses out of wine crates and painting them. It seems ludicrous but when you think about it it's made the NHS 350 million a week big red Brexit bus disappear out of search.

There's nothing tin-foil-hat or conspiracy theory related about this. It's just someone's running an extremely savvy campaign. There's some exceedingly clever PR and social media management running behind the scenes.

Watch this over the next few weeks. I would be far from confident that a general election will bring about a restoration of normality and the end of no-deal-Brexit. I think you're going to see probably one of the most sophisticated political social media and traditional media campaigns we've ever witnessed and, unfortunately, the general public and even most of the media are not social-media savvy enough to see when they're being fed this stuff. We're generally just not equipped with the skillset to see past it because the medium is so new.

Much like with Trump, you're watching power grab by social media.

I read your post yesterday and thought it was an interesting theory, but people aren't really googling 'Tory lies' or 'Brexit lies'.
So why would JRM, or more to the point Cummings go to such lengths to realign the internet over something rather obscure?

Then today I saw a few headlines ...

Downing Street has secretly been testing ‘Trust the People’ as Boris Johnson’s election campaign slogan

and

Should you be sacked? PM adviser Cummings says: 'Trust the people'

:eek::eek::eek:

joe40

With hindsight I wonder do the Labour remainers and lib dem wish they had just voted for May's Deal.

Even with Brexiteer and DUP opposition would the rest have not been able to push it through.

Still a lot of uncertainty, an election could go to Boris and lead to no deal exit.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBF, what choice did they have. You cannot stay in the party whilst voting against their ability to control parliament.

One of TM's biggest failings was her inability to hold her own party to one direction, she allowed even ministers to vote against her. You cannot lead like that.

Johnson and Cummings ramped up the tension no end, threatening them with expulsion days before the vote : Cummings apparently shouting abuse at them inside Downing Street that morning

Leroy42

TM WA is actually a hard Brexit, it is being reclassed as something much softer in relation to crash out.

But it is very far removed from the expectations of the ref campaign. It failed because it didn't meet the wide variation of expectations ranging from soft to crash out.

But, and this needs to be repeated everytime, the Government had the numbers to get it passed. It is entirely down to the fact that the Tories themselves wouldn't vote for it that we are where we are. Every government needs to work on the basis that the opposition will vote against them on pretty much everything.

TM didn't want Labour anywhere near her Brexit, so it is a bit rich to then complain they didn't help her.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

Johnson and Cummings ramped up the tension no end, threatening them with expulsion days before the vote : Cummings apparently shouting abuse at them inside Downing Street that morning

They were trying, and I agree they went about it entirely the wrong way, to instill some level of party governance. Johnson is the very recently elected leader of the party and therefore one either accepts him or not. If not, then leave.

Every party works like that. And this wasn't a vote on a small issue. This was essentially giving control over to the opposition.

Had the Tories acted in the same way towards the ERG ages ago they would not be in the mess they find themselves.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

They were trying, and I agree they went about it entirely the wrong way, to instill some level of party governance. Johnson is the very recently elected leader of the party and therefore one either accepts him or not. If not, then leave.

Every party works like that. And this wasn't a vote on a small issue. This was essentially giving control over to the opposition.

Had the Tories acted in the same way towards the ERG ages ago they would not be in the mess they find themselves.

Someone was saying on the Sky papers review the other evening that it is the leading ERG members who should have been kicked out of the party. Expelling moderates and centrists like Hammond, Clarke and Grieve is the most monumental blunder.

An Ciarraioch

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian has fresh detail on the backstop story - the UK wants to move away from a level playing field on employment law, loosen defence pledges, and ask Ireland to align with the UK on food standards:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBF, what choice did they have. You cannot stay in the party whilst voting against their ability to control parliament.

One of TM's biggest failings was her inability to hold her own party to one direction, she allowed even ministers to vote against her. You cannot lead like that.

Several members of the current government have voted against their own government many many times in the past, helping to inflict the greatest losses in parliament on any government ever. Its a bit rich for these same people to expel other for voting against them once.

The other choice available is to stop trying to force through policies that your party cannot support.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian has fresh detail on the backstop story - the UK wants to move away from a level playing field on employment law, loosen defence pledges, and ask Ireland to align with the UK on food standards:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

Full on retreat back to unicorn land then.

gmisk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian has fresh detail on the backstop story - the UK wants to move away from a level playing field on employment law, loosen defence pledges, and ask Ireland to align with the UK on food standards:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

Boris is really struggling not in a million years are Ireland or the EU going to agree to those.
Why the hell would Ireland want to diverge from EU food standards?

So they can get their hands on chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef?!?!! lol

Tell me how

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian has fresh detail on the backstop story - the UK wants to move away from a level playing field on employment law, loosen defence pledges, and ask Ireland to align with the UK on food standards:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

From the article.

However, there is speculation that Johnson has something different in mind – regulatory alignment between Ireland and the UK on food, something proposed by the Alternative Arrangements Commission. It would mean Ireland shifting its food standards whenever the UK diverged from EU rules, for example allowing chlorinated chicken or hormone-treated beef into supermarkets. This is a non-starter. Varadkar pledged in a keynote speech on Thursday that “whatever happens, Ireland will not be dragged out of the single European market”.

Granted, she says that it is a non-starter, but how in the name of anything are such actions being considered at this point.
It really is looking like the UK does not understand what anyone is saying other than themselves.

It's what we suspected and it has played out that that is the case.

fash

gmisk wrote: »

Boris is really struggling not in a million years are Ireland or the EU going to agree to those.
Why the hell would Ireland want to diverge from EU food standards?

So they can get their hands on chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef?!?!! lol

I'd be happy to align with the UK - so long as it is Ireland that gets to decide what the standards are.

josip

I don't think Boris is serious about those recent proposals.
It's important for him to be able to say he is proposing alternatives and it's the EU/Ireland that are rejecting them and being difficult.
Just part of the pre election blame game

robinph

murphaph wrote: »

https://www.westyorkshire.police.uk/news-appeals/statement-west-yorkshire-chief-constable-john-robins-yesterdays-ministerial-visit

Chief Constable of West Yorkshire Police was not amused.

Any bodies like that should have their ideas clear beforehand for the next few weeks/ months and the moment the politician starts going off the agreed script and into campaign mode you signal your police cadets/ ambulance staff/ fire officers/ army/ navy/ etc to march off.

Would soon put a stop to it happening.

Edit: Australia showing how it's done:

https://twitter.com/jonny_b69/status/1169924034399756288?s=20

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM WA is actually a hard Brexit, it is being reclassed as something much softer in relation to crash out.

But it is very far removed from the expectations of the ref campaign. It failed because it didn't meet the wide variation of expectations ranging from soft to crash out.

But, and this needs to be repeated everytime, the Government had the numbers to get it passed. It is entirely down to the fact that the Tories themselves wouldn't vote for it that we are where we are. Every government needs to work on the basis that the opposition will vote against them on pretty much everything.

TM didn't want Labour anywhere near her Brexit, so it is a bit rich to then complain they didn't help her.

Nothing is going to meet that range of expectations.

On an issue as important as Brexit you would imagine normal politics of opposition and government would be set aside.

The WA was agreed by the EU and acceptable to Ireland is still the only deal available.

I'm not saying Labour and Lib dems should have voted for it but if they had it would have been passed by now.

I know the outcome may turn out better, but it could also become a lot worse.

Leroy42

fash wrote: »

I'd be happy to align with the UK - so long as it is Ireland that gets to decide what the standards are.

Bingo. There it is. The UK have a major issue with taking standards agreed by all in the EU, but now want to inflict standards on Ireland when we will have no say into them.

Isn't that the very thing they hate about the Backstop. Kaya Adler says that there is clearly a case of both sides talking past each other, failing to understand what the other side is saying.

But this isn't even that. This is asking the other side to agree to the very thing that you say that no country would even consider.

ath262

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian has fresh detail on the backstop story - the UK wants to move away from a level playing field on employment law, loosen defence pledges, and ask Ireland to align with the UK on food standards:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/backstop-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-changes-defence-workers-rights

it's beginning to look like he's trying to sabotage the talks while keeping up the pretence of genuine netogiations, and make the EU tell Frost to get lost... so he can blame the EU & Ireland for the UK having to crash out with no-deal

PropJoe10

ath262 wrote: »

it's beginning to look like he's trying to sabotage the talks while keeping up the pretence of genuine netogiations, and make the EU tell Frost to get lost... so he can blame the EU & Ireland for the UK having to crash out with no-deal

That's been his strategy since he took office. None of this is surprising. It's the Dominic Cummings playbook, pure and simple.

Strazdas

Interesting suggestion from Peter Foster : he thinks Johnson could indeed get the UK out of the EU by Oct 31 by shafting the DUP and going for an NI backstop only. He admits this is a mere speculative theory though

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1169955796974743557