Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

MikeSoys

am i missing something?.. tje lords have passed a bill to block / stop a no-deal..

so once the queen ratifies it they cant crash out...or can they still crash out?

eire4

MikeSoys wrote: »

am i missing something?.. tje lords have passed a bill to block / stop a no-deal..

so once the queen ratifies it they cant crash out...or can they still crash out?

Well ultimately assuming no deal is agreed on between the EU and Britain (which seems likely) before October 31 then it really does not matter so much what the British parliament does or does not do. They only avoid a crash out if the EU agrees to give them yet another extension which is not a forgone conclusion.

J Mysterio

It must be so absolutely galling and mortifying for Johnson. Finally, finally realised his dream of becoming PM but has completely blown it!

The lies, disingenuousness and underhanded tactics which had served served him so well have come back to bite him. The legislation passed seems to effectively bind him to avoid No Deal and was explicitly created in that way as he 'can't be trusted'. So, somewhat powerless as PM barely a week into the job, and having lost at least three votes already.

The worst thing is that Johnson couldn't find the courage to lead without looking to take the easy route in turning to the extremists and purging the moderates (Night of the Long Knives aspect to it). Most that can be said of him is he at least took a position, just took the wrong one. May was a dithererer who wanted to be all things to all people and who really just had poor party discipline and got nothing done. I'm not convinced Johnson can rely on the ERG in any way despite his move though, not that they alone amount to much in the grand scheme of things. A GE in these circumstances is very dodgy for the Tories.

Given the opportunity though, Johnson has shown himself to be unfit to lead, confirming what most had suspected. He quickly went with his worst instincts, underlining once again the Tories reputation as the nasty party. Hopefully the expulsions might shake up UK politics for the better in some ways - it would be great if all those expelled joined the Lib Dems or did something new. I suspect most won't though, as they ultimately do identify as Tories, just another shade. They might hope to sit out this period before returning in future.

Johnson is goosed though. Now inextricably linked to the hard right, no mandate for his mission, no majority, hands tied, waiting for an election that is out of his hands. His bumbling affable chap persona just doesnt cut it at this level, and he cannot mumble and joke his way out of the questions that are being put to him. People expect the Prime Minister to be a serious person with serious ideas.

His brother now abandoning him and successive PR disasters with experts (Nichols, Police Commissioner) are nails in the coffin. He should probably resign now. What is the greater humiliation: to bow out now or to continue on parliaments leash? I imagine he will try to find a novel way to ignore Parliament, but who knows? The man is seemingly capable of anything.

allthedoyles

The last few pages are mainly about hitting Johnston below the belt , and in fairness he does deserve all he gets.
But he has a circle of friends that are as bad ,and some might be even worse and he has purposely surrounded himself with these incompetents , by sacking the rebels.

GM228

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1174828/brexit-news-boris-johnson-eu-extension-law-mps-commons-oct-31-general-election

Boris ready to break law to deliver Brexit by Oct 31 as he vows to defy MPs' demands

BORIS Johnson has said he will defiantly refuse to delay Brexit even after MPS and the House of Lords passed a law to force an extension to Article 50 and block no deal

Top reporting by the Express or just rubbish, he did state the other day in the HoC he would obey by the law.

PokeHerKing

eire4 wrote: »

Well ultimately assuming no deal is agreed on between the EU and Britain (which seems likely) before October 31 then it really does not matter so much what the British parliament does or does not do. They only avoid a crash out if the EU agrees to give them yet another extension which is not a forgone conclusion.

The EU granting an extension, given the current state of play is as close to a foregone conclusion as you can get imo.

RickBlaine

eire4 wrote: »

MikeSoys wrote: »

am i missing something?.. tje lords have passed a bill to block / stop a no-deal..

so once the queen ratifies it they cant crash out...or can they still crash out?

Well ultimately assuming no deal is agreed on between the EU and Britain (which seems likely) before October 31 then it really does not matter so much what the British parliament does or does not do. They only avoid a crash out if the EU agrees to give them yet another extension which is not a forgone conclusion.

But what if Johnson doesn't request an extension despite the bill.

sondagefaux

If Johnson is determined not to request an extension, the only options open to him, apart from breaking the law, are to either resign as Prime Minister or to engineer a veto by one or more members of the European Council.

It's difficult to predict the attitude of the EU27 to an extension request.

On the one hand, the EU27 don't want to be seen as the bad guys by turning down an extension request, and another few months to prepare for a potential No Deal Brexit and/or to figure out a way of getting the UK to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement would be very useful.

On the other hand, some of the EU27, especially Macron, are pretty damn fed up, and have already said that they'd only agree to an extension if the UK holds either a general election, a referendum (or maybe both!).

sondagefaux

GM228 wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1174828/brexit-news-boris-johnson-eu-extension-law-mps-commons-oct-31-general-election



Top reporting by the Express or just rubbish, he did state the other day in the HoC he would obey by the law.

The Express regularly reports on aliens and asteroids that have 'just missed' the Earth by several million miles.

Its web version is also obsessed with alternative endings to Game of Thrones.

It's about as credible as the National Enquirer.

RickBlaine

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

GM228

sondagefaux wrote: »

The Express regularly reports on aliens...

...It's about as credible as the National Enquirer.

You mean they're not real? Ah no :rolleyes:

Joking aside, that reminds me of a comment I saw online:-

1999: In twenty years we are going to Mars
2019: We are going nowhere with Brexit

GM228

RickBlaine wrote: »

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

That's assuming one is voted for, though now that the delay Bill is passed I can see that being guaranteed next week.

Imreoir2

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

That JFC thing is the single most pathetic thing I've seen in politics.

People think Cummings is a genious, his plan if Labour blocks an election was literally just to call Corbyn chicken. Thats it. You can see that they prepared a lot for this, even paid a graphic disigner to put together stickers for a KFC joke. A five year old could have come up with it.

sondagefaux

RickBlaine wrote: »

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

I don't really think it is. I'm not sure that it would resolve anything, as there's so much disagreement in parliament.

I can't really see a general election making it easier for parliament to get a majority in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement or a majority in favour of a No Deal Brexit.

If parliament can't make its mind up, it should refer the question back to the people.

For those who can't stomach a second referendum on whether or not the UK should remain or leave, the question in the referendum could avoid including remaining in the EU as an option.

It could be confined to choosing between two Leave options: a 'soft Brexit' with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market, with the addition of a Customs Union with the EU for Northern Ireland, or a No Deal Brexit.

I'm very confident that the first option would win easily.

Strazdas

RickBlaine wrote: »

Re the EU27, I think the forthcoming GE is sufficient reason to grant an extension.

Yes, but there might also be strict terms and conditions attached. The extension could be very short and the UK might have to come up with a major new proposal to the EU to stop No Deal.

Forty Seven

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.



I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.


I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)



We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

sondagefaux

GM228 wrote: »

That's assuming one is voted for, though now that the delay Bill is passed I can see that being guaranteed next week.

I don't see it being guaranteed next week, at least not before October 31st.

If the UK doesn't leave the EU on October 31st, then Johnson's 'do or die' pledge is broken and he's shown up as a liar.

An opinion poll published this week shows that the Conservatives on 37% for an election held before October 31st, but on only 28% for an election held after October 31st.

I would imagine that's going to be uppermost in the minds of most opposition MPs when they cast their votes next week.

briany

Imreoir2 wrote: »

People think Cummings is a genious, his plan if Labour blocks an election was literally just to call Corbyn chicken. Thats it. You can see that they prepared a lot for this, even paid a graphic disigner to put together stickers for a KFC joke. A five year old could have come up with it.

The Tories have a history of these publicity stunts.

https://twitter.com/oakroyd/status/536557121887027201

PopePalpatine

J Mysterio wrote: »

It I imagine he will try to find a novel way to ignore Parliament, but who knows? The man is seemingly capable of anything.

I wouldn't put it past him, or JRM and the rest of those Bullingdon toffs.

GM228

sondagefaux wrote: »

For those who can't stomach a second referendum on whether or not the UK should remain or leave, the question in the referendum could avoid including remaining in the EU as an option.

It could be confined to choosing between two Leave options: a 'soft Brexit' with the entire UK remaining in the Single Market, with the addition of a Customs Union with the EU for Northern Ireland, or a No Deal Brexit.

I'm very confident that the first option would win easily.

The problem is if the first option you give is voted for a deal is still required, in any case you are affording an option with two versions of NO, imagine the outcry. I think at this stage a yes/no option would be required, but perhaps with a sub no option as you describe.

An Ciarraioch

One poll gives the Tories 340 seats in an October election, and just 266 if the UK is still in the EU in November:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1170019633702821891

theguzman

Forty Seven wrote: »

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.



I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.


I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)



We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

It would really merit a thread of its own but Brexit was really a result of the backlash against the political establishment, Trump, Bolsonaro Salvini etc, also.

Basically Farage managed to whip up enough jingoism to result in Brexit winning the referendum and we have been dealing with the mess ever since. Cameron like a coward headed for the door immediately when in reality he would have been far better suited to handling this than Theresa May or Boris now.

I actually think Brexit may never happen now.

Strazdas

Forty Seven wrote: »

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.



I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.


I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)



We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

I wouldn't disagree with some of your points but I think this is as much down to the UK in particular being a political basket case and going through a massive identity crisis. A dysfunctional political system, a dysfunctional media and throw in the heady rise of English right wing nationalism into the mix. The UK is not at ease with itself in the world and there is obviously huge class divide within the nation.

briany

I love how the Brexit party's ultimatum to the Conservatives of 'deliver Brexit or we'll contest the next election' would be ensuring that no form of Brexit would happen for the foreseeable future. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

sondagefaux

Forty Seven wrote: »

I think we are witnessing something here that transcends Brexit. This is the rise of the proletariat, only they are not rising as Marx predicted. Years of immigration coupled with austerity has the lower rung of the nation becoming more right wing, this was evident with the rise of UKIP and the tories moving away from the center right to counter.



I have thought for some time that we are heading into a global catastrophe akin to the last two wars. History shows there are stages coming into a conflict. Often they start with a financial crisis, check, then polarisation of political views, check, a minority group or country to blame, check both, (immigrants, EU) political stalemate resulting in a strong leader emerging, check (he doesn't have to be strong, just appear it) the disastisfaction of the political classes among the populace, check, nationalism becoming more widespread, check, people in the streets protesting, check.


I surmise we are on about chapter 5 of the coming bestseller on WW3. It is globally unfolding, the US and China in a trade war, the immigration problem in Europe, the re-emergence of Russian muscle flexing. Europe fragmenting. (Like it or not, Brexit has dented the credibility and will have unforseen consequences)

We are witnessing England burgeoning into a far right nation and probably the break up of the union. The gloves are going to come off at some point. I am going to start buying gold again.

Every single study carried out on who voted to Leave the EU shows that the chief predictor of voting Leave was age, not social class.

Older British people are generally in favour of Brexit, and are much more likely to have hard right or far right views than younger people.

There is a link between formal educational attainment (not a proxy for intelligence at all btw) and propensity to vote for Brexit, but not as strong as the link between being older and voting to Leave.

Given that older people are also more likely to die sooner than younger people, I think that you're being a tad pessimistic about the future direction of England.

A Shropshire Lad

The right wing media in the UK is incredibly weaponised. I suppose, like all aspects of Brexit, one has to look at who owns these papers and what gain they might see in Brexit

Forty Seven

sondagefaux wrote: »

Every single study carried out on who voted to Leave the EU shows that the chief predictor of voting Leave was age, not social class.

Older British people are generally in favour of Brexit, and are much more likely to have hard right or far right views than younger people.

There is a link between formal educational attainment (not a proxy for intelligence at all btw) and propensity to vote for Brexit, but not as strong as the link between being older and voting to Leave.

Given that older people are also more likely to die sooner than younger people, I think that you're being a tad pessimistic about the future direction of England.

At the same rate they die those young become older and it is shown people get more right wing as they age. Everyone is a socialist when they have nothing. The young gravitate further right as they gain more to protect. The idea the young will remain left as the older generation die is not credible. It's an organic movement which would usually balance out.

is_that_so

Imreoir2 wrote: »

People think Cummings is a genious, his plan if Labour blocks an election was literally just to call Corbyn chicken. Thats it. You can see that they prepared a lot for this, even paid a graphic disigner to put together stickers for a KFC joke. A five year old could have come up with it.

It reminds me of Freedonia (S06E15) in the West Wing where there is a similar ploy and an altercation with a life-sized chicken! Fine for TV but utterly juvenile.

ancapailldorcha

I do find myself wondering what would have happened if Cameron had followed through on his threat to campaign to leave if the EU didn't give him a good enough deal back before the referendum. Johnson would probably have picked the Remain side and might have swung it for them with Gove. Don't get me wrong, I think he genuinely believes the stuff about global Britain, he just cares about himself more.

A part of me is feeling a bit hopeful. Not necessarily about the UK. I am not sure if that can be saved. Moreso about the fact that populists are starting to feel a lot more negative attention.

Johnson's record so far might be the worst in Parliamentary history though I've not researched centuries of it but let's have a look:

• He's lost all of his initial three motions.
• He has postured about disobeying the law.
• He's had to prorgue Parliament for the longest period in 400 years. So much for taking back control.
• He is scouring his party of talent to eradicate dissent and sending them off to opposition parties, including people who've never defied the whip like David Gauke and Winston Churchill's grandson, Sir Nicholas Soames.
• He's lost the loyalty of his two siblings.
• He's managed to all but singularly undo Ruth Davidson's impressive but fragile gains in Scotland that he will desperately need to win in the next election.
• Finally, he can't even get the leader of the opposition to agree to an election, something which would have been unfathomable until a few weeks ago.

Come an election he has left himself nothing to run on, such is his desperation to head off the Brexit party. We even saw that dreadful, loathsome tweet about downing street looking to weaponise the transgender debate in the north of the UK to try and win over working class voters. How putrid and squalid is that? He can't run on the economy, the NHS, schools, prisons, roads, etc. All he is left with is hard Brexit or else he'll haemhorrhage votes to the Brexit party. Of course, he'll lose voters at the other end to the Lib Dems but this seems to be the choice he has made.

The one thing he is supposed to excel at is the "Boris bluster". We saw that fall flat today in Morley which is the sort of place he needs to be winning in. The north of England might be Conservative but it votes Labour. Scotland will fall back into the SNP's hands. Wales is unlikely to matter too much. I'd say the same for Northern Ireland but it's unfortunately possible that the DUP is something the British public might have to suffer for a bit longer.

ElectronVolt

My questions is what are the consequences for him and his cabinet if they do refuse to obey the law? A lot of the checks and balances in the UK are proving to be nothing but an acceptance of precedent and fair play.