Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

rossie1977

Polls had Tories massively increasing their seats in 2017 hence why May called election thinking she could increase her grip.

Tell me how

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Well i wouldnt be so sure about any of that myself. I dont place that much faith in the polls, its far too volatile a situation imo, and all i know for sure is that the conservatives are going to lose 10 seats in Scotland so thats not great for starters. Also, going for a no deal strategy might help in relation to TBP, but is restricting yourself to that narrow subset of the electorate really a winning strategy? Thats likely not even 50% of the voting public.

I also personally dislike the idea of an election being used as a de facto referendum. The issues that need to be teased out for a GE deserve not to be lost in the fog of a one-issue campaign, although that said, i do believe labour - if they play it right - might succeed in playing it as a multi-issue election. All a bit uncertain though.

• The UK needs a referendum because of everything that has gone on in relation to visibility of what leaving the EU looks like in real life.
• The UK needs a general election because of the absence of any normal parliamentary discussion in relation to national governance in at least 3 years.
• The UK needs a general election because of the disarray which exists in the HoC at the moment.

Each of the above statements I believe is true and I think that there is no question but that a GE will be used to conflate these issues and try to muddy the waters on what is being voted for. End result will be an election that is claimed by the victors as whatever mandate they want irrespective of the reality.
This, I believe will play in to the conservative hands because they, at least, have a coherent message "Deliver Brexit, Stop Corbyn" (ignoring the unite and energise elements of Johnsons recent victory speech).

I am very pessimistic that the non-Tory/non-Brexit Party contenders will be able to unite under a common strong message. I think the Tory/Brexit party will play on this, suggesting a vote for Labour/Lib-Dems/Change/Green etc is a vote for disagreement and confusion in a future government. Completely ignoring the fact that that is what the Tories have given for the last 3 years.

Joe_ Public

When it comes to Labour and an election, i have a feeling their opponents and their media pals will repeat the same mistakes by hamming up the supposed "marxist, trotskyist, bennite etc etc extremists who will destroy business and nationalise every single industry ad finitum." Young voters dont understand any of that and it has no effect on them whatsover.

Already, the conservatives look incoherent to me on a lot of what they say. I heard one tory MP on the news this morning referring to Corbyn as the "marxist labour leader who'll keep us in the EU." I just though, he's not much of a Marxist leader if he's determined to keep the UK in the EU, but from being portrayed for last couple of years as a dyed in the wool brexiteer, they've now turned Jezza into a committed remainer. Its all rather amusing if you ask me.

Bit cynical

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Er that might be the theory but have you looked at the poll numbers recently? The No-Deal Brexit vote is more or less consolidated by the Conservative party and potentially the Brexit party if it comes to an election over the issue. Meanwhile the Remain vote is nearly evenly divided between the Labour party who have spent the past three years building up a reputation for dithering on the issue, the Lib-Dems who have been more coherent but still struggle from the internecine sniping of their fellow Remainers, the Greens who are Green and the various regional Nationalist parties. A 'No-Deal Alliance' of Tories in most of the country and Brexit party in those areas typically considered Labour strongholds like the North, would likely make mincemeat of what is at present a very fractured Remain opposition.

Well of course the only opinion poll that really counts is the one on election day!

I think if a GE is held fairly soon Labour can still get away with being the no "no deal" party. If a GE is delayed then the "then what?" question starts becoming important and Labour have to work out what the answer to that question is. And then of course, some people will not agree with it thereby lessening their support base.

Spanish Eyes

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

Kermit.de.frog

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

That's all down to Rupert Murdoch.

Before him their press was like everywhere else - pretty balanced.

Not only did he change the balance completely but he introduced the toxic, dumbed down gutter versions of tabloids that debased society in Britain - the real consequences are only coming through now.

SeaBreezes

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1?fbclid=IwAR0QiekV13tPs0_g5igT1hQK3qGvqQQYq4GxXCZzkN1XlUmH03AkMVBxEGQ

Well worth a read on why the UK got here and who's pulling the strings.. if I lived in the UK I would (for my kids sake) be packing up and moving to Ireland/Scotland cause it's only going to get worse with these sociopaths in charge...

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing papers. Those numbers are freakish compared to Ireland and Europe and the same newspapers think nothing about lying to their readership about the EU and pushing a pro-hard right agenda.

Enzokk

cryptocurrency wrote: »

People who say that are making a presumption remain would win. They are wrong.

If Leave proponents were as confident as you were they would have been advocating for a second referendum. Seeing as they have not said a word on a second referendum it is safe to assume that they know it is not as simple as you make it. If there was to be second referendum and the Leave vote would be on no-deal and it won then the question would be done and parliament would enact the decision. So I am left to wonder, why are they so scared to ask the public to confirm the Leave vote? Maybe you can have a go at that answer, because Rees-Mogg seemed to have a sound reason why he wants to avoid one.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1168452333526798338?s=20

I was amazed that Lucy Harris was trying to tell the world that a general election would be a better way to solve Brexit than a second referendum. Somehow a vote where Brexit will be one of many factors to play a role for voters will be more democratic than a simple yes or no for Brexit where it is the only issue. That takes some crazy mental gymnastics to get to that point and it is disingenuous to try and argue this as well.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1169640443501527040?s=20

murphaph

Deciding this issue through a FPTP general election would be rubbish. We know that the BXP could get 12% of the popular vote yet this could equate to zero seats. It's completely unfair. A second referendum is the only fair way to put the matter back to the people. It'll be unfinished business if they don't.

GM228

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1?fbclid=IwAR0QiekV13tPs0_g5igT1hQK3qGvqQQYq4GxXCZzkN1XlUmH03AkMVBxEGQ

Well worth a read on why the UK got here and who's pulling the strings.. if I lived in the UK I would (for my kids sake) be packing up and moving to Ireland/Scotland cause it's only going to get worse with these sociopaths in charge...

That's a great well reasoned read, whilst there are many parts worth pointing to this section really stands out for me on the myth that the UK will be economically better off outside the EU:-

Even the British Treasury’s own analyses of the effects of doing so are absolutely grim. Whether the outcome of leaving is Norway-style (EEA membership), Canada-style (bilateral agreement), or a no-deal exit (defaulting to WTO rules), there is no economic benefit to the UK:

The Treasury’s analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models. Productivity and GDP per person would be lower in all these alternative scenarios, as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving the EU.

It stands out because "permanently" really sinks in the reality that some of the downfalls (and this is a big one) are more than something which is just temporay and can eventually be overcome, it's most definitely not a case of short term pain, long term gain.

Duane Dibbley

murphaph wrote: »

Deciding this issue through a FPTP general election would be rubbish. We know that the BXP could get 12% of the popular vote yet this could equate to zero seats. It's completely unfair. A second referendum is the only fair way to put the matter back to the people. It'll be unfinished business if they don't.

What would be the options in the second referendum?

10000maniacs

Just watching the Newsnight intro tonight and the deranged guy who ripped Pat Kenny a new one on the Late Late show 12 years ago was out in Scotland roaring at Boris Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate. Just thought it was funny.

sdanseo

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching the Newsnight intro tonight and the deranged guy who ripped Pat Kenny a new one on the Late Late show 12 years ago was out in Scotland roaring at Boris Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate. Just thought it was funny.

You may need to narrow that down

I thought of this fella from the Frontline first

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu6d0ns-JJU

but maybe you mean this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiIsIE8iT28

awec

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What would be the options in the second referendum?

It would have to be the same options as last time, it's the only fair question at this stage.

10000maniacs

Yeah the Frontline guy (I think)

An Ciarraioch

SNP set to win all 13 Scottish Tory seats:

https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1170079258699599873

First Up

awec wrote:

It would have to be the same options as last time, it's the only fair question at this stage.

That's what caused the mess in the first place.

An Ciarraioch

Tory-Brexit pact under discussion:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

Headshot

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tory-Brexit pact under discussion:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/revealed-election-pact-between-johnson-and-farage-edges-closer/

Making a pact with the devil, BJ is desperate it seems.

Just goes to show how the Conservative party has fallen so much that they have to get into the bed with that really really really nasty piece of work Farage

Sardonicat

You'd think they'd have learned from May's romp with the DUP to be more discerning when choosing bed fellows.

This is sickening stuff.

sondagefaux

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

What would be the options in the second referendum?

Deal or No Deal.

sondagefaux

Forty Seven wrote: »

At the same rate they die those young become older and it is shown people get more right wing as they age. Everyone is a socialist when they have nothing. The young gravitate further right as they gain more to protect. The idea the young will remain left as the older generation die is not credible. It's an organic movement which would usually balance out.

Some have looked at this and declared that older people grow more conservative as they age, ignoring the fact that they may have been conservative when they were young as well. A COHORT effect is being observed here, not an AGE effect.It doesn't tell you why, what happened before this, and what happened after this.

https://quizlet.com/96240548/gerontology-flash-cards/

Forty Seven

10000maniacs wrote: »

Just watching the Newsnight intro tonight and the deranged guy who ripped Pat Kenny a new one on the Late Late show 12 years ago was out in Scotland roaring at Boris Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate. Just thought it was funny.

Is that the same guy who was shouting at him in Leeds?

Bit cynical

murphaph wrote: »

Deciding this issue through a FPTP general election would be rubbish. We know that the BXP could get 12% of the popular vote yet this could equate to zero seats. It's completely unfair. A second referendum is the only fair way to put the matter back to the people. It'll be unfinished business if they don't.

However every system is unfair in some respects. If it was our sort of PR as we have here in Ireland, people would be complaining that the Brexit party were getting seats. Under the current system they will get few or no seats and, unless they act very strategically, their participation is likely to reduce the number of pro-brexit Tory seats.

Strazdas

Sardonicat wrote: »

You'd think they'd have learned from May's romp with the DUP to be more discerning when choosing bed fellows.

This is sickening stuff.

Would be a disastrous move. There's a fair number of closet racists and bigots among their ranks.

Robert McGrath

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

To me here in ROI it is a bit puzzling to try to understand the power that the Press has across the pond in influencing people.

Seems to me there is the Telegraph, Sun, Express, Mail, all in favour of Leave, and then there is the Guardian that is the counterpoint.

I don't think there would ever be that much influence on public opinion here from the papers.

But maybe that's because we here are cynical and can see through the bullcrap. Dunno.

Let’s not be too complacent about the situation here.

Remember “it’s payback time”?

Forty Seven

Strazdas wrote: »

Would be a disastrous move. There's a fair number of closet racists and bigots among their ranks.

He needs bxp to take seats in the wastelands Thatcher created. They will never vote Tory but voted strongly leave. It's a marriage made in heaven for them. Labour has lost all respect with their flip flopping. Even now they offer nothing concrete. Bxp Tory alliance would dominate the hoc.

Strazdas

GM228 wrote: »

That's a great well reasoned read, whilst there are many parts worth pointing to this section really stands out for me on the myth that the UK will be economically better off outside the EU:-

It looks like they're going to end up as some oddball semi isolationist state on the fringes of Europe which nobody takes seriously : something akin to a Belarus or Franco's Spain. It's downright bizarre to see a modern developed democracy go down this route.

Strazdas

Forty Seven wrote: »

He needs bxp to take seats in the wastelands Thatcher created. They will never vote Tory but voted strongly leave. It's a marriage made in heaven for them. Labour has lost all respect with their flip flopping. Even now they offer nothing concrete. Bxp Tory alliance would dominate the hoc.

The BXP are a ghastly bunch of people though. A Tory - BXP pact would play well with the faithful but would look terrible outside the bubble (Farage is hated in Europe).