Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Would Johnson not go for a GE if he thought he would lose a VONC? That would put the GE a bit earlier, mid Oct.

johnnyskeleton

Tell me how wrote: »

Future generations won't know the absolute ridiculous things that have gone on over the last 3 years.
It'll all just be surmised in to; The referendum was held, Cameron resigned, May became PM and negotiated a withdrawal agreement which failed to be accepted by Parliament so she resigned to be replaced by Johnson who was unable to renegotiate and so (Option A - the UK left without a deal) (Option B - Who knows?)

They won't be told of all the scratch your head and wonder did that just happen moments which occurred. Maybe they main players all know this and they can keep to their narrative even if it is not based in reality.

We should have a look back over Brexit threads I-XXV when its all done and dusted and select the best bits so that the madness of these times are kept afresh for future generations to enjoy

Valhallapt

prawnsambo wrote: »

I did a straw poll of a random selection of three pin plugs in my house and all were certified to British Standard. Most were manufactured in China. So there is unlikely to be a change in availability, just a divergence of standards unless the EU give them a CE marks as well.

You won’t notice a change in the short term. But manufacturers will have to get the 3 pin solution certified to meet EU standards just to sell it in Ireland. That’s more costly than chucking in an adapter for a market the size of Ireland. Take for example EU regulations on vacuum cleaners, for some brexiteers this put them over the edge, so I could foresee divergence on that regulation. So the U.K. may permit vacuum cleaners which are not permitted in the EU. So vacuum cleaning manufacturers have to certify two models for the EU if they want to sell in Ireland or they just thrown in an adapter.

The bigger changes will come from the change in supply chains, up to now U.K. & Ireland and bundled into one area with a single product type and a single marketing budget. We’ll likely be put into Benelux or French/Spanish/Portuguese supply chains in the future.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

Would Johnson not go for a GE if he thought he would lose a VONC? That would put the GE a bit earlier, mid Oct.

Yeah. Elections are always held on Thursdays. Either he loses a VONC or a Queen's speech (and he has control over the holding and timing of the latter), he can then set a date. The absolute earliest would be Thursday 10th October, but unlikely as it would need to be called before 5th September. So realistically the 17th October.

trellheim

Water John wrote: »

Would Johnson not go for a GE if he thought he would lose a VONC? That would put the GE a bit earlier, mid Oct.

He cannot ! As I have pointed out a couple of times it is not in his power. Since the passage of the Fixed Term parliament act only ways of doing a GE are


1) VONC
2) 2/3 majority in HoC vote for it . Since he does not have 2/3 majority, Labour have to agree to it, essentially a VONC in all but name
3 - wait for 5 years to expire (2022)

Laois_Man

Several of you seem to think a Tory majority in a general election means WA gets passed with a border in the Irish sea!

Teresa May had a 5 seat Tory majority and couldn't achieve anything and had to call an election in 2017 - even if she's had a 25 seat majority, it would have been a serious struggle for her!

So Johnson doesn't just need a majority - he needs a darn big one, and even with a Brexit Party coalition, I'd bet my last rags he wouldn't get one!

And only this morning, Farage again stressed that the Brexit Party consider the WA "the worst deal in history" even if the backstop is entirely removed! Many ERG members are of a like mind. 60 of them according to Mark Francois!

Johnson knows all of this - no deal is his only option, regardless of when the election happens. The only way it will be avoided is if he is not PM on October 31st.

Varta

Valhallapt wrote: »

You won’t notice a change in the short term. But manufacturers will have to get the 3 pin solution certified to meet EU standards just to sell it in Ireland. That’s more costly than chucking in an adapter for a market the size of Ireland. Take for example EU regulations on vacuum cleaners, for some brexiteers this put them over the edge, so I could foresee divergence on that regulation. So the U.K. may permit vacuum cleaners which are not permitted in the EU. So vacuum cleaning manufacturers have to certify two models for the EU if they want to sell in Ireland or they just thrown in an adapter.

The bigger changes will come from the change in supply chains, up to now U.K. & Ireland and bundled into one area with a single product type and a single marketing budget. We’ll likely be put into Benelux or French/Spanish/Portuguese supply chains in the future.

Last year I bought a toaster from a German company that came with an adapter. No problem whatsoever. You wouldn't even notice it.

trellheim

Many ERG members are of a like mind. 60 of them according to Mark Francois!

As I said above, looks like ERG have been squared.

BRexit party have no MPs at the moment

Quin_Dub

Laois_Man wrote: »

Several of you seem to think a Tory majority in a general election means WA gets passed with a border in the Irish sea!

Teresa May had a 5 seat Tory majority and couldn't achieve anything and had to call an election in 2017 - even if she's had a 25 seat majority, it would have been a serious struggle for her!

So Johnson doesn't just need a majority - he needs a darn big one, and even with a Brexit Party coalition, I'd bet my last rags he wouldn't get one!

And only this morning, Farage again stressed that the Brexit Party consider the WA "the worst deal in history" even if the backstop is entirely removed! Many ERG members are of a like mind. 60 of them according to Mark Francois!

Johnson knows all of this - no deal is his only option, regardless of when the election happens. The only way it will be avoided is if he is not PM on October 31st.

May didn't call the Election to try and get anything passed - She saw what she thought was an opportunity to crush Labour and establish a significant Tory majority. She was of course badly mistaken.

The Backstop etc. didn't exist when she called the Election..

If they can offload the DUP then a vote for the NI Only Backstop and WA will be done under a 3 line whip and the threat to the ERG will be Corbyn.

If they win a clear majority it's the only option. He does not need an Election for No-deal.

If an Election is called , they are looking to go for NI Only backstop , it's the only reason to do it.

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

Several of you seem to think a Tory majority in a general election means WA gets passed with a border in the Irish sea!

Teresa May had a 5 seat Tory majority and couldn't achieve anything and had to call an election in 2017 - even if she's had a 25 seat majority, it would have been a serious struggle for her!

So Johnson doesn't just need a majority - he needs a darn big one, and even with a Brexit Party coalition, I'd bet my last rags he wouldn't get one!

And only this morning, Farage again stressed that the Brexit Party consider the WA "the worst deal in history" even if the backstop is entirely removed! Many ERG members are of a like mind. 60 of them according to Mark Francois!

Johnson knows all of this - no deal is his only option, regardless of when the election happens. The only way it will be avoided is if he is not PM on October 31st.

Only if you assume that they actually think a no deal is a good outcome. And I don't believe they do. It's a Pandora that May let out of the box and which has run around the UK as a legitimate option for the brexiters who can't work around the contradictions of brexit and the GFA. And May called her election before the backstop had even raised its head. I believe it was pure hubris on her part to think she could increase her majority. Cameron was completely blindsided by the same majority that May didn't think was big enough.

But instead of trying to beat the ERG with a super-majority, Boris has merely bought them off. JRM sold himself for leadership of the house, others for cabinet seats. A few have refused to be bought, but it's now a much smaller rump than it was. And in the end, they will hold their noses and vote with Johnson or be faced with the possibility of their ultimate fear; losing their seats and a Corbyn government.

Farage will row in if they get the brexit that allows the US a free hand at asset-strpping the UK.

Laois_Man

Quin_Dub wrote: »

May didn't call the Election to try and get anything passed - She saw what she thought was an opportunity to crush Labour and establish a significant Tory majority. She was of course badly mistaken.

The Backstop etc. didn't exist when she called the Election..

If they can offload the DUP then a vote for the NI Only Backstop and WA will be done under a 3 line whip and the threat to the ERG will be Corbyn.

If they win a clear majority it's the only option. He does not need an Election for No-deal.

If an Election is called , they are looking to go for NI Only backstop , it's the only reason to do it.

Johnson might have no choice on having a General Election

May's stated reason for calling an election was to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations (and so that an election would no longer be due in 2020, slap bang in the middle of what was supposed to be the transition period). WA negotiations hadn't even started yet and the backbenchers were cat fighting. She had no chance of passing the WA with that majority - the size of her defeats prove that! The same obstacle confronts Johnson.

Sam Russell

peter kern wrote: »

could you make a prediciton what will happen to 3 pin plugs in ireland and the uk

Here are the relevant standards - British and corresponding Irish ones.

The Family of British Standard - BS 1363
13 A plugs, socket-outlets, adaptors and connection units

BS 1363-1:1995 - Specification for rewirable and non-rewirable 13 A fused plugs

BS 1363-2:1995 - Specification for 13 A switched and unswitched socket-outlets

BS 1363-3:1995 - Specification for adaptors

BS 1363-4:1995 - Specification for 13 A fused connection units switched and unswitched

BS 1363-5:2008 - Specification for fused conversion plugs

The Family of Corresponding Irish Standard

I.S. 401:1997 - Specification for rewirable and non-rewirable 13 A fused plugs

I.S. 411:1997 - Specification for 13 A switched and unswitched socket-outlets

I.S. 421:1997 - Specification for adaptors

Nothing should change. Electrical goods supplied here must include the appropriate plug.

Tikki Wang Wang

Tell me how wrote: »

Simon Coveney hammering home the consistency element of EU position.

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1163759623515660288

Short, concise, no risk of obfuscation or misinterpretation.

hopefully Katya Adler will read both tweets and decline from saying 'There are signs the EU are wavering' on the next Brexitcast.

That fool has been on holidays for 6 weeks. No doubt cultivating more (imaginary) contacts to drip feed nonsense about the EU being about to blink. Should be sacked.

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

May's stated reason for calling an election was to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations (and so that an election would no longer be due in 2020, slap bang in the middle of what was supposed to be the transition period). WA negotiations hadn't even started yet and the backbenchers were cat fighting. She had no chance of passing the WA with that majority - the size of her defeats prove that! The same obstacle confronts Johnson.

That was her stated reason. The real reason was to sideline the ERG and give her a free hand to push a WA through. Johnson's strategy is rather than have them outside the tent p1ssing in, have them inside the tent p1ssing out. It's been largely successful. He's been on an election footing since day one. All loud noises to appeal to the brexity masses and looking decisive where May looked weak. Shouting through a megaphone at the EU, lining up the press to bash us and Brussels. Keeping away from awkward questions from the press and talking direct to the masses via Facebook etc.

This is an election strategy and it's being led by Cummings. The man credited with winning the referendum for vote leave. It may fail, but I really can't see Corbyn beating him.

54and56

Sam Russell wrote: »

Here are the relevant standards - British and corresponding Irish ones.



Nothing should change. Electrical goods supplied here must include the appropriate plug.

Does that mean that when Amazon Germany sell me (for delivery to Dublin) an electrical device with a 2 pin plug that they are breaking EU consumer law?

prawnsambo

54&56 wrote: »

Does that mean that when Amazon Germany sell me (for delivery to Dublin) an electrical device with a 2 pin plug that they are breaking EU consumer law?

I don't think the same rules apply for distance purchasing.

Laois_Man

prawnsambo wrote: »

That was her stated reason. The real reason was to sideline the ERG and give her a free hand to push a WA through. Johnson's strategy is rather than have them outside the tent p1ssing in, have them inside the tent p1ssing out. It's been largely successful. He's been on an election footing since day one. All loud noises to appeal to the brexity masses and looking decisive where May looked weak. Shouting through a megaphone at the EU, lining up the press to bash us and Brussels. Keeping away from awkward questions from the press and talking direct to the masses via Facebook etc.

This is an election strategy and it's being led by Cummings. The man credited with winning the referendum for vote leave. It may fail, but I really can't see Corbyn beating him.

No Johnson strategy is going to make the ERG vote for the WA

Again, the same obstacle Teresa may had! Majority or no majority - unless its a darn big majority!

trellheim

you're buying German goods from a .de website, what'd you expect ?

Valhallapt

Sam Russell wrote: »

Here are the relevant standards - British and corresponding Irish ones.



Nothing should change. Electrical goods supplied here must include the appropriate plug.

Or an adapter

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

No Johnson strategy is going to make the ERG vote for the WA

Again, the same obstacle Teresa may had! Majority or no majority - unless its a darn big majority!

You're falling for the rhetoric from the likes of Mark Francois and JRM. For a start JRM has been bought. Francois is sidelined. And the ERG have held all possible positions on brexit from the start. Some of them have even voted for the WA. And they know that Corbyn is praying for them to crash out with no deal because he'll reap the rewards without accepting any of the blame.

Sam Russell

54&56 wrote: »

Does that mean that when Amazon Germany sell me (for delivery to Dublin) an electrical device with a 2 pin plug that they are breaking EU consumer law?

I am afraid that electrical plug standardisation is one massive failure for the EU. They had a plug designed as an EU standard (16 Amp, three round pins - a bit like the Swiss one) that was only adopted by Brazil, despite Brazil having two incompatible electricity systems (110v and 230V - with the same plug).

The EU accepted defeat and forgot about it. If only the British would do the same with Brexit.

Strazdas

54&56 wrote: »

Does that mean that when Amazon Germany sell me (for delivery to Dublin) an electrical device with a 2 pin plug that they are breaking EU consumer law?

No, because you might actually want one with a 2 pin plug (for whatever reason).

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

No, because you might actually want one with a 2 pin plug (for whatever reason).

Living in Germany being the top one I'd imagine.

Calina

Laois_Man wrote: »

Teresa May had a 5 seat Tory majority and couldn't achieve anything and had to call an election in 2017 - even if she's had a 25 seat majority, it would have been a serious struggle for her.

She didn't have to. Opinion polls had her like 20 percentage points ahead of Labour/Corbyn the day before she called an election. It was opportunistic. But she was not a natural campaigner and a Tory policy which targeted retired people backfired while Corbyn ran a decent campaign.

That election, after A50 notification was unwise and unnecessary.

Valhallapt

Malta officially follows the same 3 pin British standard, but in practice most homes have dual sockets. Simply because of supply chains coming via Italy. It’ll be the same officially we’ll be three pin, but over time we’ll start questioning why we don’t have 2 pin sockets.

Just look at saorview play, very few TVs support it but almost every tv in Ireland supports freeview, its U.K. equivalent. If the U.K. deviates from EU standards, it won’t be worth while manufactures providing a three pin plug when more than 99% of consumers use 2 pin plugs.

Kermit.de.frog

Angela Merkel has just said the WA will not be reopened. She says practical solutions needed to replace backstop eventually as part of political declaration.

I.e never

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Angela Merkel has just said the WA will be reopened. She says practical solutions needed to replace backstop.

I don't think anyone has objected to a practical solution being used to replace the backstop.
So far however, nobody has proposed a single solution that is in any way practical. Simply because there isn't!

Kermit.de.frog

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I don't think anyone has objected to a practical solution being used to replace the backstop.
So far however, nobody has proposed a single solution that is in any way practical. Simply because there isn't!

My mistake. She says WA will NOT be reopened.

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My mistake. She says WA will NOT be reopened.

ya fecker!! you had me desperately scrambling around twitter etc!!

FastFullBack

farmchoice wrote: »

ya fecker!! you had me desperately scrambling around twitter etc!!

same here. I was like WTF Angela