Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Leonard Hofstadter

I see Phil Hogan has been appointed trade commissioner when the new commission takes over in November.

Good luck to the UK trying to get a good deal out of him if they decide to go down the no deal route.

So much for the EU throwing Ireland under the bus at the last minute as has often (falsely) been predicted by the UK Government and Brexiteers!!

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/phil-hogan-set-to-get-key-eu-trade-negotiating-role-postbrexit-38474333.html

A Dub in Glasgo

Forty Seven wrote: »

My partner registered to vote yesterday. She lives in Angus, currently Tory. She is voting Tory as the only viable option to keep out the snp and try to prevent independence. She is 31. Make of that what you will.

Tory candidate won a 6.6% majority in 2017. It's her first time in parliament and she is one of the youngest MPs at 30 years of age. Asked how she voted in the 2016 referendum she stated she 'didn't vote as the choice was too difficult'.

The youth ladies and gentlemen. Don't be expecting too much from the under 35s.

Kirstene Hair is dim, simple as that. It is a sad reflection on that constituency that they voted for her, the next election will fix that

She said 'I just ultimately couldn't make that decision and I thought I would therefore go with the will of the UK which if I'm honest I thought we would remain' now she is an out and out no deal Brexiter

weemcd

Despite what the polls may or may not say I am highly sceptical of Boris Johnson's ability to be elected. He is in the traditional period of good will a leader normally gets before the vultures start circling, Johnson's had about 1 full week in Parliament and he's been absolutely annihilated at every turn. If his poor run of form continues I see a very open election.

https://youtu.be/fSygWN-qMfY

^ have a look at this, ordinary guy on the street is tearing Johnson to shreds and he's standing there completely lost like a deer in the headlights. He's looking around for someone to whisk him away, come save him or for someone to blame but they're not appearing, he looks absolutely clueless.

Duane Dibbley

I’d like to know what happens if BJ doesn’t ask for an extension. I know he breaks the law and could be arrested. But besides that would the UK crash out.

GM228

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

I’d like to know what happens if BJ doesn’t ask for an extension. I know he breaks the law and could be arrested. But besides that would the UK crash out.

It is extremely unlikely he would be arrested, breaking the law and committing a crime (and one which affords a power of arrest) are not the same, failure to request an extension is not in and of itself an offence.

Yes assuming there is no unanimous agreement between the UK and the EU27 on an extension and no deal agreed then yes they crash out.

trellheim

If he offers parliament ratifying WA with a deal beforehand he does not have to resign or crash out.

This is extremely unlikely as Labour have voted against WA consistently and ERG will too (Steve Baker is on a promise not to tweet by the look of it).

Next step is if Queen assents to the bill

GM228

trellheim wrote: »

Next step is if Queen assents to the bill

Last time Royal Assent was refused was in 1708 when Queen Anne rejected the Scottish Militia Bill.

It is extremely unlikely the Queen will refuse to assent, however, one valid reason for refusal to assent is when advised not to by the PM...

Assent is seen as no more than a formality these days, but will the 311 year old formality come to an end? In fact I actually wouldn't be surprised if Johnson managed to advise her not to.

GM228

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I see Phil Hogan has been appointed trade commissioner when the new commission takes over in November.

He appears to be the man for the job, he hasn't got it yet and a week can see a lot of changes in politics as we all know.

woohoo!!!

It's very uncertain whether the EU will grant an extension. I think we could see a situation where Johnson will refuse to ask for an extension and the EU will refuse to get drawn into an internal UK matter. But leaving all that aside, the situation has deteriorated since the last 6 month extension and a line has to be drawn eventually.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's no chance Johnson will break the law. His whole life has been about avoiding personal responsibility and lying to preserve himself. The chances he'd 'martyr' himself with the possibility of jail are ludicrously small. Ironic that they're trying to goad Corbyn with 'chicken' insults. There's a yellow streak a mile wide down Johnson's back.

Most likely, but he will need to stand by one of his convictions these days as he is painting himself into an awful corner if he keeps breaking promises. I feel it is starting to wear thin for the populace, they can probably take a little dishonesty from their politicians but to continually lie and break promises should not be rewarded.

murphaph

Forty Seven wrote: »

The bad feeling the Irish have towards my country due to the history between us. 'Shared' was the wrong choice of word it seems.

To be honest the Irish, if they feel any I'll will, is directed at England. The history of the Highland Clearances is well known in Ireland too.

There is no place for ancient hatred but the healing process was still in progress. NI makes things "complicated" but Ireland and England were on a good road until Brexit. It is simply deeply insensitive to Ireland to treat the GFA as subordinate to Brexit. The UK's approach from the beginning should have treated NI differently because it is different.

robindch

Firebrand Russian politician, Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, lends his not inconsiderable weight to Mr Johnson:

Vlad the Inhaler wrote:

Boris Johnson is quite right in his wish to remove Britain from the bondage of the European Union which, truly, is a western European collective farm. So get your hands off Boris Johnson! I am ready to send a group of LDPR deputies to help him out in London.

https://twitter.com/Zhirinovskiy/status/1169504752150941696

prawnsambo

murphaph wrote: »

To be honest the Irish, if they feel any I'll will, is directed at England. The history of the Highland Clearances is well known in Ireland too.

There is no place for ancient hatred but the healing process was still in progress. NI makes things "complicated" but Ireland and England were on a good road until Brexit. It is simply deeply insensitive to Ireland to treat the GFA as subordinate to Brexit. The UK's approach from the beginning should have treated NI differently because it is different.

It didn't help that those who pointed out the incompatibility of brexit and the GFA were dismissed vociferously as proponents of 'project fear'. That particularly rankled as our concerns here, were being dismissed as lies by obvious liars. I couldn't overstate this enough. It was infuriating by being simultaneously dismissive, patronising and ignorant. And to add insult to injury, all of those concerns at the time are now denied and replaced by even more lies about the EU using the GFA and us being their puppets. Twenty years of progress burned down by children playing with matches.

ElectronVolt

I think this is something being lost on on the British media too. A lot of European governments now see the Tories as far right nationalists, not a mainstream party.

Getting praise from far right Russians and Trump isn't really going to do the UK any favours.

Water John

If the PM doesn't ask the EU for an extension, would he be in contempt of Parliament? Then they could charge him and imprison him.

Leroy42

I don't think it has to come from the PM personally, their power comes from the HoC.

Just like the WA was agreed by TM but rejected by the HoC. So HoC is clearly, demonstrably superior and Johnsons own feelings are irrelevant

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't think it has to come from the PM personally, their power comes from the HoC.

Just like the WA was agreed by TM but rejected by the HoC. So HoC is clearly, demonstrably superior and Johnsons own feelings are irrelevant

I believe it has to come from the government. So not specifically Johnson, but perhaps a member of government, i.e someone in the cabinet.

beggars_bush

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/06/boris-johnson-twilight-zone-police-escort-conservatives?__twitter_impression=true

This is magnificent reading

Don't splitter your coffee over your screen

Kermit.de.frog

I think Johnson is reverting to the NI only backstop.

All Ireland agri food zone is a good start but there is also the fact he no longer needs the DUP.

I suspect he'll go for a deal on the basis of NI only while he can say the GB is then not trapped.

Otherwise why would he even bother coming here Monday? Something is shifting...

A Shropshire Lad

I wonder when people go to vote in the next election will it ever cross their minds about trust. Trust Boris, or trust Jeremy.

Who can trust any politician at the end of the day............... but when your own brother doesnt trust you !

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think Johnson is reverting to the NI only backstop.

All Ireland agri food zone is a good start but there is also the fact he no longer needs the DUP.

I suspect he'll go for a deal on the basis of NI only while he can say the GB is then not trapped.

Otherwise why would he even bother coming here Monday? Something is shifting...

With Johnson, who knows? Another attempt to bully us, float unicorns, try the '30% Ian Paisley' solution or just more nothing and spin it any way he wants. Or even the original backstop, but he should know that's a runner already.

devnull

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

I wonder when people go to vote in the next election will it ever cross their minds about trust. Trust Boris, or trust Jeremy.

Who can trust any politician at the end of the day............... but when your own brother doesnt trust you !

All I will say about Jeremy Corbyn is this.

Recently he was moaning about Costa Coffee and the way they treat their staff and retweeted a mention about this, but a short while after I saw Jeremy Corbyn and his aide's drinking, you've guessed it, Costa Coffee on a train.

Saying that however if I had a vote, Boris is so bad that I think I would vote Labour now, as it's the best chance to stop Boris. When it was May and Corbyn I wouldn't vote for either of them and vote Lib Dem, but Boris is that bad that in an odd way it would make me vote Labour rather than Lib Dem as stopping Boris would now be more important to me than anything else as he is a danger to democracy.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

If the PM doesn't ask the EU for an extension, would he be in contempt of Parliament? Then they could charge him and imprison him.

I've no idea what might happen in such an event, but i have a strong suspicion that kind of reaction, while perhaps not on any Johnson/Cummings current wishlist, might suit them well enough if it came to it. Of course, Johnson, like any UK citizen, must be subject to the rule of law, but anything that might make a martyr of him would potentially be political gold to him and Cummings in my opinion.

ThePanjandrum

McGiver wrote: »

The EU is in continuous ascendancy since the 1951 Schuman declaration of the intent to (eventually) unite Europe.

The Euro is the second largest reserve currency. The Euro is also second largest IMF SDR at 31% of XDR basket, USD is 42% of the XDR basket - this confirms the prime reserve currency status. This was achieved in less than 20 years without any military domination or denomination unlike the USD status.

The EU is the largest single market in the world and with Japan deep FTA is now a free trade area worth of 21% global GDP (US is 24% and China 15%).

The EU consolidates further and is a global soft power able to take on the US or China.

Now how about UK since 1951? It's a story of continuous decline from former world super power. Ironically, the only period of a significant development and success is late 1980s to 2009 brought fully about by the EU membership and the ability of the UK government to leverage it.

The EU is the second largest market and the EU as a whole is becoming less significant year by year in global terms.

A Dub in Glasgo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU is the second largest market and the EU as a whole is becoming less significant year by year in global terms.

If that is so, who is becoming more significant? from Brexiter rhetoric, it is the UK that is becoming more significant - is that really the case?

fly_agaric

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Otherwise why would he even bother coming here Monday?

Has to make it look like he is trying as the clock runs down?
Same as sending a negotiator over to the EU when there is really nothing new to be said unless the UK position changes.
Important for positioning in a potential election (pre or post Brexit day), for selling the potential "blame game" to true believers that are still gung ho for "hard" Brexit, and for showing he made an effort to those who are not quite so brexity but still will vote Conservative.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The EU is the second largest market and the EU as a whole is becoming less significant year by year in global terms.

When you consider that China has a population four times the size of the EU, that's not exactly news. However it doesn't bode well for a country a tenth of the size of the EU in that paradigm.

Leroy42

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

The EU is in continuous ascendancy since the 1951 Schuman declaration of the intent to (eventually) unite Europe.

The Euro is the second largest reserve currency. The Euro is also second largest IMF SDR at 31% of XDR basket, USD is 42% of the XDR basket - this confirms the prime reserve currency status. This was achieved in less than 20 years without any military domination or denomination unlike the USD status.

The EU is the largest single market in the world and with Japan deep FTA is now a free trade area worth of 21% global GDP (US is 24% and China 15%).

The EU consolidates further and is a global soft power able to take on the US or China.

Now how about UK since 1951? It's a story of continuous decline from former world super power. Ironically, the only period of a significant development and success is late 1980s to 2009 brought fully about by the EU membership and the ability of the UK government to leverage it.

The EU is the second largest market and the EU as a whole is becoming less significant year by year in global terms.

Any idea as to why this is? Brexiteers seem to be of the view that the EU is failing and that by splitting the UK can forge itself at the vanguard of the new world.

I have yet to see any actual policies that will be different after Brexit to enable the UK to take advantage of this changing environment whilst the EU will remain stagnant

ThePanjandrum

ElectronVolt wrote: »

The only huge stumbling block is Northern Ireland and that was pointed out before Brexit was ever voted for and then the UK tied itself in knots with the DUP in a confidence and supply arrangement minority government, which removed all discussion about how a practical solution for that issue was ever going to be found.

So, really that's the crux of this and pretending otherwise is just not going to achieve anything.

If you pull Northern Ireland out into a situation where there's a hard border, you'll likely re-start the Troubles. A solution has to be found to preserve the status quo, without wrecking the Irish economy and without undermining a desire to leave the EU on the UK's side either.

The only solution I can see is a Northern Ireland Only backstop - which was the EU's original proposal. It would effectively just keep the status quo in Northern Ireland, which is what they voted for anyway in the referendum.

The alternative is strife in the short to medium term. We all know that and it's head-in-sand nonsense to pretend otherwise.

If there's a huge issue, why not just give Northern Ireland a referendum on an agreement that allows the region to maintain its status quo? That would be a democratic solution without annoying either side and without frustrating anyone's referendum.

If the population of NI endorses a NI-only backstop, that should be the end of it.

Being dogmatic about national identity in NI is always a recipe for violence and it's idiocy to keep pushing this along.

All most people in NI want is peace, stability and the ability to have a decent society that's growing away from that history of violence. It's not THAT much to ask to give them the opportunity to continue with it. Or, does English nationalism really just not care a jot?

No, that wouldn't work. Northern Ireland would then be subject to EU law though part of the UK so Uk legislation which was in the EU competency would then cause a clash between EU and UK law.

The way around this would be for Northern Ireland to become part of Ireland which might lead to violence and bombings within the Republic which Ireland would have to try to put down whilst at the same time it was making large payments to the North which would be a lot higher than they are now because the North sends more goods to the rest of the UK than to anywhere else.

An Ciarraioch

ElectronVolt wrote: »

I think this is something being lost on on the British media too. A lot of European governments now see the Tories as far right nationalists, not a mainstream party.

Getting praise from far right Russians and Trump isn't really going to do the UK any favours.

Interesting to read Paddy Agnew in last week's Sunday Independent - even Five Star, who could hardly be classed as Europhiles, were speaking about a united European approach, and the NI peace process.