Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

fr336

fr336 wrote: »

As a Brit I like the idea of getting a deal (NI only backstop for instance), but does this still mean the Tories being hauled out of power at the next election?

I think if Johnson can deliver as flexible a Brexit as possible for the 97% of people who live on the island of Great Britain he will be rewarded.

Sam Russell

L1011 wrote: »

On a separate part of the topic, I made my first bet in 8 years - a fiver on Clarke as next PM at 12/1. Not expecting to see it back but also find the odds quite long.

If Corbyn had any sense, he would propose him (Ken Clarke) as PM after a VONC, and form an interim Gov of Nat Unity, with an expected lifetime of 6 to 12 months. The Gov would be a caretaker Gov with no major policy changes than already underway.

They would aim to do the following: (of course they would do none of these)
1: Revoke Art 50, but reserve the expectation that it can be reintroduced.
2: Announce that all the spending proposals just announced by the Tories will go ahead and austerity is dead.
3: Set up a Royal Commission to examine every aspect of the 2016 vote inc illegal funding, dark money, Russian and USA involvement, Met Police not investigating, the lies, Cummins, Farage, Gove, BJ, etc. The whole lot.
4. Announce a second referendum to take place in 12 months time, and set up a Citizens' Assembly to frame the question, and the type of solution that would meet the UK requirement. SM CU, Citizen's Rights, etc. The vote will then be on a definite leave proposal that the EU would accept. If it turns out that the CA can see no benefit for leaving the EU, then the Ref will be cancelled, but that is not proposed at this time.
5. Announce a review of the voting system to make it democratic, also to be framed by the CA.
6. Bercow will granted an Earldom - probably of Uxbridge.

I think all of that would take the wind out of the Tories sails.

LeinsterDub

fr336 wrote: »

As a Brit I like the idea of getting a deal (NI only backstop for instance), but does this still mean the Tories being hauled out of power at the next election?

That of course would be up to your informed and responsible electorate

CelticRambler

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Faisal Islam on twitter thinks its a given that a 'rebranded' NI only backstop will be agreed by the UK. DUP not needed so will be thrown under bus. Unionists will be angry, but NI business and majority of population in favour. It was always going to be the only acceptable deal

Indeed.

But it won't be just the DUP that'll be angry - awarding "best-of-both-worlds special status to NI will really annoy the Scots. As they also voted to remain, NI getting preferential treatment after the £1bn bribe will be another reason for the SNP to demand a second independence referendum as their price for whatever votes the English minority government needs in the coming months/years.

lawred2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Interesting thread from Faisal Islam tonight on the possibility of an NI-only backstop:



It would be so good to see Arlene and co. be thrown under the big Brexit bus after all their hubris.

And the triumphal bleating that the EU (ourselves) would throw Ireland (ourselves) under the bus..

I hope NI grows up and sees how poorly served they are by tribal serving parties. The DUP in most other parts of the Democratic world would be routed at the next elections...

I truly hope I see it but I'm sure I'll be disappointed.

devnull

Talk about the government could deal with this by declaring a national emergency

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1170768368900681728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1170768371467673606&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twtd.co.uk%2Fforum%2F465753%2Fgovernment-could-enact-%25E2%2580%2598emergency-powers%25E2%2580%2599-to-push-through-no-deal%2F%231
Seems to be a fair bit of chatter as well that whilst things are against the law, it might be worth seeing if those who are charged with enforcing the law do when it is broken and how long it will take them. Apparently a trade off might be the the enforcement of laws takes days and weeks to put into action so by the time the punishment comes it'll be too late.

Crazy times that we live in and the actions that are being taken are typical of dictators, the worst is they've hoodwinked a lot of the population into believing they are fighting for democracy, if you look through history at other people who have done this, you will see some very stark warnings indeed of what said people later did.

joe40

maebee wrote: »

The DUP should have been aware that their loyalty would not always be reciprocal. Big bus coming for them imo.

The DUP only had about 10 MPs but TM deal was defeated by much more than that every time. It wasn't just the DUP voting against it, what has changed now?

Strazdas

joe40 wrote: »

The DUP only had about 10 MPs but TM deal was defeated by much more than that every time. It wasn't just the DUP voting against it, what has changed now?

Everything : the DUP are no longer propping up the Govt and Johnson actively wants a general election. Therefore he is free to shaft the DUP, which means the WA he might offer the Parliament would be a different one to May's one.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/gazza_d/status/1170663060891152385

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1170792133432946688

Tory MP suggests that the PM ignore the rule of law aka a coup all the while the opposition takes the opportunity to score an own goal.

j8wk2feszrnpao

maebee wrote: »

The DUP should have been aware that their loyalty would not always be reciprocal. Big bus coming for them imo.

The DUP are such a strange bunch. Massive arse-lickers to the mainland, and the mainland couldn’t care less about them.

Kermit.de.frog

The gang planks are being laid over the border for the invaders according to Jim Allister

https://twitter.com/JimAllister/status/1170795492629987330

Problem for people like Jim is that whipping up fear and hysteria in their own communities won't work now like it did in the 1960's. People are somewhat more enlightened.

Strazdas

munstermagic11 wrote: »

The DUP are such a strange bunch. Massive arse-lickers to the mainland, and the mainland couldn’t care less about them.

They totally misjudged Brexit, the direction it might take and what it was about. If they had realised it was really about English nationalism, it would surely have set off alarm bells.

Backing it to the hilt for the last three years has been a massive miscalculation.

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

They totally misjudged Brexit, the direction it might take and what it was about. If they had realised it was really about English nationalism, it would surely have set off alarm bells.

Backing it to the hilt for the last three years has been a massive miscalculation.

Not sure I agree. What have they lost out on? They got to basically sit in government since 2017, ensuring that no pressure was put on them to restart Stormont or do anything about the Cash for Ash.

If they end up with a NI backstop then they only postponed it.

Their supporters will see it as them standing up to the Irish and the EU.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not sure I agree. What have they lost out on? They got to basically sit in government since 2017, ensuring that no pressure was put on them to restart Stormont or do anything about the Cash for Ash.

If they end up with a NI backstop then they only postponed it.

Their supporters will see it as them standing up to the Irish and the EU.

A Tory government being seen to shaft them would be a disaster. It would send out the message they are not a priority for anyone in GB, not even the hard right.

interlocked

prawnsambo wrote: »

interlocked wrote: »

Faisal Islam, Peter Foster and Tony Connelly(obviously) are going to come out of the Brexit debacle with hugely enhanced reputations. They're just islands of intelligence in a sea of stupidity.

I'd add Ian Dunt to that list.

No,l wouldn't, much as I like his attitude, he hasn't got the inside track that the other lads have.

interlocked

prawnsambo wrote: »

interlocked wrote: »

Faisal Islam, Peter Foster and Tony Connelly(obviously) are going to come out of the Brexit debacle with hugely enhanced reputations. They're just islands of intelligence in a sea of stupidity.

I'd add Ian Dunt to that list.

No,l wouldn't, much as I like his attitude, he hasn't got the inside track that the other lads have.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not sure I agree. What have they lost out on? They got to basically sit in government since 2017, ensuring that no pressure was put on them to restart Stormont or do anything about the Cash for Ash.

If they end up with a NI backstop then they only postponed it.

Their supporters will see it as them standing up to the Irish and the EU.

At this juncture a border in the sea with a return to some sort of normality and Britain to have its brexit Woukd be just a massive relief.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

A Tory government being seen to shaft them would be a disaster. It would send out the message they are not a priority for anyone in GB, not even the hard right.

Isn't this the plain truth? People in GB do not give much for NI and even less for the DUP?

I always felt the DUP campaigning for and DUP voters voting for Brexit - were hugely more stupid than turkeys voting for Christmas.

Before all this Brexit nonsense the DUP had political power and no real pressure for a UI in a foreseeable future.

Now there is a very real risk of a UI within a decade or even before. From a DUP political POV looks like world class political stupidity.

Lars

Mr.Nice Guy

I'd be surprised if Johnson says anything explicit about an NI-only backstop on Monday as to do so would see a fierce backlash from the DUP and Brexit Party. It's more likely that he'll downplay it for the time being since he's in election mode, but I'm curious how he moves away from that suggestion.

From the DUP's point of view, they would prefer him to shoot down the notion head on. If he sidesteps it, that will surely have them worried.

The statements from our government will be fascinating too. I feel the less said, the better the outlook. If Johnson does indicate that he's moving in the direction of an NI-only backstop, our government is hardly going to broadcast that to the world. If we get something along the lines of, "We had a constructive conversation. We're still some way off one another but it was a positive engagement" etc. that's probably a good sign I would think, even though on the face of it that might not seem to be the case. On the other hand if we hear a quite lengthy statement on how far apart the two sides are, then that perhaps suggests Johnson isn't actually moving towards adopting a position as has been hinted. There's no reason for our side to be diplomatic if they are still stonewalling.

My impression is if Johnson outright pours cold water on the idea, there's no hope of progress; if he pours lukewarm water on it, brace yourself, Arlene.

Peregrinus

Strazdas wrote: »

A Tory government being seen to shaft them would be a disaster. It would send out the message they are not a priority for anyone in GB, not even the hard right.

This is not a message that needs sending out. Everybody already knows this - including the DUP themselves.

Kermit.de.frog

No compromising on the backstop according to Helen McEntee in an article in tomorrow's Indo.

Helen McEntee: 'Compromising on the backstop is not an option because we must protect peace above all else'

As uncertainty continues, there have been calls for Ireland and the EU to remove the backstop or to make fundamental concessions that would mean the backstop ceases to be effective in order to avoid a no deal.

This is something the Irish Government is not willing to compromise on.

We have, through the EU, painstakingly negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement over two years. The backstop is necessary as a result of, firstly, the UK's decision to leave the EU, and second, the UK's self-imposed red lines of leaving the single market and the customs union.

DOCARCH

I said this a couple of days ago. The NI only backstop is the logical solution now (always was) to solve the impasse but I fear talk of it now is just too late/may be a false dawn.

After the week BJ just had, I am not sure he could get anything through the HoC. ERG will not go for it and opposition parties, I believe, are unlikely to go for it either, with the smell of blood/BJ backed into a corner.

GM228

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/09/kpmg-predicts-no-deal-brexit-recession-in-2020?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

Some grim forecasts from KPMG in the event of no deal.

Britain will plunge into its first recession in a decade should the government quit the European Union without a deal, according to the latest in a string of gloomy forecasts about the UK’s fortunes outside the EU’s free trade area.

Economists at the accountancy firm KPMG said that the knock-on effects to Britain’s trade and business confidence of a no-deal Brexit would lead to the economy shrinking by 1.5% next year.

The KPMG report is here:-

https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2019/09/britain-at-a-crossroads.pdf

A deal by 31 October will see some renewed momentum in the economy, helped by the continuation of existing trade links, while a no-deal will see the UK falling into a year-long recession in late 2019, according to our latest forecasts.

Our forecast under a no-deal scenario

If the UK were to leave the EU without a deal on 31 October the short term impact on the economy is likely to be significant, triggering a recession outright. An exit without any alternative arrangements for trade will see a substantial fall in exports. While imports will also suffer, they are unlikely to be replaced by domestic production at least in the short term, with the net impact from trade weighing heavily on the UK economy.

An instant further depreciation of the pound, by perhaps as much as 10%, will not serve to alleviate exporters’ woes in the short term, as the key stumbling blocks to trade are likely to centre on delays at the border, confusion over required permits and the regulations to be followed. Delays would negatively impact production for the UK market as well as exporters. The most damaging impacts could come from potential shortages of imported foodstuffs as well as medicines in the immediate term, negatively impacting households’ sentiment.

A no-deal scenario largely represents a leap into the unknown for the UK economy, but is likely to trigger a relatively shallow recession outright.

A weaker pound will increase the cost of imports, which will gradually feed into higher inflation in coming years. However, just as before, we would expect the Bank of England to see through the temporary increase in inflation and seek to support the economy in the short run by lowering the base interest rate. Following an initial assessment of the early economic data, we would expect the Monetary Policy Committee to cut the base interest rate to 0.25% in the November meeting, and to follow through with a further cut to 0.1% in the December meeting or early in 2020.

Our modelling suggests this outcome could lead to further falls in the price of houses throughout the UK, with prices falling by an average of just over 6% in 2020. However, a deeper house price crash of 20% is possible, if the market responds in a similar fashion to previous shocks

20silkcut

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I'd be surprised if Johnson says anything explicit about an NI-only backstop on Monday as to do so would see a fierce backlash from the DUP and Brexit Party. It's more likely that he'll downplay it for the time being since he's in election mode, but I'm curious how he moves away from that suggestion.

From the DUP's point of view, they would prefer him to shoot down the notion head on. If he sidesteps it, that will surely have them worried.

The statements from our government will be fascinating too. I feel the less said, the better the outlook. If Johnson does indicate that he's moving in the direction of an NI-only backstop, our government is hardly going to broadcast that to the world. If we get something along the lines of, "We had a constructive conversation. We're still some way off one another but it was a positive engagement" etc. that's probably a good sign I would think, even though on the face of it that might not seem to be the case. On the other hand if we hear a quite lengthy statement on how far apart the two sides are, then that perhaps suggests Johnson isn't actually moving towards adopting a position as has been hinted. There's no reason for our side to be diplomatic if they are still stonewalling.

My impression is if Johnson outright pours cold water on the idea, there's no hope of progress; if he pours lukewarm water on it, brace yourself, Arlene.

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

Dyr

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The gang planks are being laid over the border for the invaders according to Jim Allister

https://twitter.com/JimAllister/status/1170795492629987330

Problem for people like Jim is that whipping up fear and hysteria in their own communities won't work now like it did in the 1960's. People are somewhat more enlightened.

The same enlightened people that vote for Jim Wells and his pals?

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to lash out. They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

They would (if this is what happens) relabel the backstop "all-island something or other" which will be the backstop except implemented immediately (well before the end of the transition phase) to save some blushes. People are largely too dim to realise that this is the NI only backstop, fast forwarded and in GB nobody will care (except some Scots).

FrancieBrady

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

They have been 'shafted' in their own eyes. Review what was said after the Anglo Irish Agreement which was the effective end of their veto.

Their problem now would be the same as then...who to lash out at?

And Unionism's own predominately moderate and pragmatic base usually works against their Never Never Never belligerents and they calm down and get on with it.

20silkcut

murphaph wrote: »

They would (if this is what happens) relabel the backstop "all-island something or other" which will be the backstop except implemented immediately (well before the end of the transition phase) to save some blushes. People are largely too dim to realise that this is the NI only backstop, fast forwarded and in GB nobody will care (except some Scots).

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was mischievously resurrected to have a cut at us.

KildareP

20silkcut wrote: »

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was resurrected to have a cut at us.

I'd wonder whether it was a genuine cut at us, or whether he used it in complete ignorance of the context in which the quote was originally used by Paisley. He's not exactly known for fact-checking!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please do not just paste tweets here.