Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

Isnt there a sizeable portion of unionists who support the backstop over no deal though? Or is it only the ones associated with business groups who understand the reality of the situation?

circadian

Well, as expected the NI economy is hit first. It is either in recession or the brink of recession according to Ulster Bank.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49609767

I can't see how the DUP will survive if the recession starts to hit working class protestant areas. They've already alienated small business and farming groups (with Sammy Wilson telling them their fears over a hard border are wrong) and once the working class voters are hit I'm not sure how they'll spin it or fend off the likes of Alliance and PUP.

Russman

circadian wrote: »

I can't see how the DUP will survive if the recession starts to hit working class protestant areas. They've already alienated small business and farming groups (with Sammy Wilson telling them their fears over a hard border are wrong) and once the working class voters are hit I'm not sure how they'll spin it or fend off the likes of Alliance and PUP.

You could be right, but I'm not so sure tbh. When push comes to shove I'd imagine DUP voters will stay DUP voters no matter what. I think their hard core would rather be British and poor, than even 1% Irish and relatively prosperous (in the event of a NI specific arrangement).

It will be spun as our fault down here or the nasty EU's fault anyway, and they'll lap it up and might even see the DUP as their only "defenders".

J Mysterio

No need for negotiators when its all in Dom qnd Boris' heads.

https://twitter.com/timjn1/status/1170945757911953409

Full steam ahead!

lawred2

circadian wrote: »

Well, as expected the NI economy is hit first. It is either in recession or the brink of recession according to Ulster Bank.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49609767

I can't see how the DUP will survive if the recession starts to hit working class protestant areas. They've already alienated small business and farming groups (with Sammy Wilson telling them their fears over a hard border are wrong) and once the working class voters are hit I'm not sure how they'll spin it or fend off the likes of Alliance and PUP.

cert error? - someone's dropped the ball there

Peregrinus

Russman wrote: »

You could be right, but I'm not so sure tbh. When push comes to shove I'd imagine DUP voters will stay DUP voters no matter what. I think their hard core would rather be British and poor, than even 1% Irish and relatively prosperous (in the event of a NI specific arrangement).

DUP voters will stay unionist, but it's not a given that they will stay DUP. The DUP did, after all, in its time displace a previously dominant unionist party.

I'm not saying that the DUP will be easily displaced as the dominant unionist party, but their strategic and tactical errors on Brexit certainly create an opportunity.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

Isnt there a sizeable portion of unionists who support the backstop over no deal though? Or is it only the ones associated with business groups who understand the reality of the situation?

The UUP just don't seem to have a clue about how to capitalise. Their 'Irish Solution For an Irish Problem' paper/proposal last week seems to have sunk like a lead balloon.
The DUP will suffer at the polls, but not by a whole pile by the looks of it so far. And you might just see their vote initially rise in the immediate aftermath of a sell out, if that is what happens. It might take a while for the blame game to start.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The UUP just don't seem to have a clue about how to capitalise. Their 'Irish Solution For an Irish Problem' paper/proposal last week seems to have sunk like a lead balloon.
The DUP will suffer at the polls, but not by a whole pile by the looks of it so far. And you might just see their vote initially rise in the immediate aftermath of a sell out, if that is what happens. It might take a while for the blame game to start.

Well, it did take a while for the DUP to supplant the OUP; it was a process rather than an event. So I wouldn't expect the DUP to collapse in the way that UKIP collapsed. But there's definitely a vulnerability that wasn't there before.

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was mischievously resurrected to have a cut at us.

I would have thought it was aimed at Unionists, by invoking Paisley. Softening them up for a NI only backstop perhaps.

Leroy42

As alluded to up thread, a major issue with going with a NI backstop is that the SNP will immediately be requesting the same.

Of course the circumstances are totally different and EU aren't offering it, but SNP will be demanding a fresh independence vote.

This was a major reason for TM asking for a UK wide backstop. She understood the need for the backstop in terms of the Irish border but also saw the very real prospect of Scotland pushing to leave.

None of that has changed. As with everything Brexit, every possible option carries with it massive problems.

prawnsambo

interlocked wrote: »

No,l wouldn't, much as I like his attitude, he hasn't got the inside track that the other lads have.

His analysis is spot on though. He doesn't get all excited about some fresh idiocy from No. 10 or the Tories like Faisal Islam is wont to do occasionally.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, it did take a while for the DUP to supplant the OUP; it was a process rather than an event. So I wouldn't expect the DUP to collapse in the way that UKIP collapsed. But there's definitely a vulnerability that wasn't there before.

Agreed, but it is only vulnerable to the UUP really, which seems particularly inept at the moment.
I think the Alliance will have a ceiling now for Unionists and will be viewed with suspicion by a lot of them.

Zubeneschamali

GM228 wrote: »

Some grim forecasts from KPMG in the event of no deal.

I was going to say that a 10% drop in Sterling was a rather optimistic view, but on rereading I see that they are talking about the instant drop on Brexit day.

So a drop to parity with the Euro overnight, meaning a drop to $1.10, sounds right.

BonnieSituation

Boris' motorcade just blasted past me on the Con Colbert Road in Islandbridge there. Did he come in via Baldonnel?

BonnieSituation

20silkcut wrote: »

What are the risks of violent opposition to a NI only backstop???

The unionist community has never been shafted in Northern Ireland before.
The embarrassment for the DUP would be pretty staggering to the point where their only retort may be to metaphorically lash out They still have a lot of supporters in NI who would probably ‘defend’ their honour.

Zero chance of organised violence a la The Troubles.

You'll find pockets of trouble, but if the fleg protests were anything to go by, loyalism doesn't have the stomach.

Most unionists support the backstop. So it would be odd to consider this a capitulation or shafting.

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I was going to say that a 10% drop in Sterling was a rather optimistic view, but on rereading I see that they are talking about the instant drop on Brexit day.

So a drop to parity with the Euro overnight, meaning a drop to €1.10, sounds right.

"mmmmmm I love the smell of devalued assets in the morning" said the dollar/euro heavy vulture

BonnieSituation

20silkcut wrote: »

The cattle are Irish, people are British backstop.
Part of me reckons that quote from paisley was mischievously resurrected to have a cut at us.

It really wasn't. I can't believe any sane person with the remotest idea of politics on this island would construe that as offensive.

Paisley knew what side his bread was buttered when it came to agriculture.

DOCARCH

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Did he come in via Baldonnel?

I think so? I am under flight path to Baldonnel (in Dublin 16) and heard a jet aircraft on approach around 8.20. Could not see anything with cloud/drizzle.

Kermit.de.frog

What the hell?

They cancelled the addresses for the press? (Johnson Varadkar meeting)

They had the mics out and all.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What the hell?

They cancelled the addresses for the press?

Boris has been dying on his feet every time he sees a microphone for the past week, I can't see him enjoying q's from the Irish press.

And since he doesn't give a monkeys about protocol...

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What the hell?

They cancelled the addresses for the press? (Johnson Varadkar meeting)

They had the mics out and all.

?

Speaking now....well at least Leo is speaking.

ath262

moved the podiums due to the rain.. statements by both now, taking a few questions after

ath262

basically the same details stated yesterday by Leo

Headshot

It's nice to see a coherent Prime Minister (Taoiseach) in Leo speaking elegantly

lola85

Headshot wrote: »

It's nice to see a coherent Prime Minister (Taoiseach) in Leo speaking elegantly

People think the grass is always greener.

lawred2

lola85 wrote: »

People think the grass is always greener.

care to elaborate on what you mean by that?

Akrasia

Johnson's speech was a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

He is still claiming that he is definitely going to leave on 31st of October even though he has no proposals for a negotiated deal and no desire to pass May's Deal.

prunudo

Listening to the speeches on the radio at the moment. How is the body language between the two?

Also add, its a bit disrespectful for him to be calling him Leo rather than Taoiseach or Taoiseach Varadkar.

careless sherpa

What a waste of time Johnson is. Says absolutely nothing and does it in an obnoxious way

VinLieger

prunudo wrote: »

Listening to the speeches on the radio at the moment. How is the body language between the two?

Leo looks grand Boris looks very uncomfortable