Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

asteroids over berlin

Boris will sacrifice NI and the DUP, border in the sea, it's really beginning to emerge as the only realistic option to leave by Oct 31st.

VinLieger

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

Boris will sacrifice NI and the DUP, border in the sea, it's really beginning to emerge as the only realistic option to leave by Oct 31st.

How does he get the WA through parliament though?

Infini

briany wrote: »

Forming a new government without even having a GE just feeds into the coup story and the only thing this new government could really agree on is that they don't want no-deal, but that choice is out of their hands at some point. Revocation really is the nuclear option in that nobody wants to use it due to the fallout.

It may become the only option and far less damaging than the economic fallout from crashing out and besides the whole issue in all this is that trolls, misinformation, toxic media outlets and general ignorance has been allowed to fester for too long. That's why there needs to be real investigations into all this not just a simple A50 withdrawal. The shìtepeddlers who pushed this farce need to be removed in order for them to clear the rot out of their house to be fair.

Infini

asteroids over berlin wrote: »

Boris will sacrifice NI and the DUP, border in the sea, it's really beginning to emerge as the only realistic option to leave by Oct 31st.

Truth is there might be no time for that at this point Boris is silencing parliment for a month to run down the clock and parliment no longer supports Boris and the truth is without an extention then the only way this can be ended is with an A50 withdrawal or a crashout.

prawnsambo

Akrasia wrote: »

If we're talking mad loopholes, The EU could just ignore the 2nd letter saying that they had already agreed to the first request before they got around to opening the 2nd letter, and that there is no provision for a lame duck prime minister to burn the bridge down after it has already been agreed.

The EU can accept or deny requests from the UK prime minister, there needs to be mutual agreement by both sides. The EU could agree to the extension request, and then simply refuse to agree to the request to cancel the first request.

It's a nonsense idea anyway. Sending two contradictory letters is exactly the same as not sending one at all.

briany

Infini wrote: »

It may become the only option and far less damaging than the economic fallout from crashing out and besides the whole issue in all this is that trolls, misinformation, toxic media outlets and general ignorance has been allowed to fester for too long. That's why there needs to be real investigations into all this not just a simple A50 withdrawal. The shìtepeddlers who pushed this farce need to be removed in order for them to clear the rot out of their house to be fair.

It's the general ignorance that allows someone like Farage to say what he does and not even have his words questioned. When the ground is so fertile for his like, it's hard to know how you'd reverse that. I mean, if it's a product of decades of tabloid press, plus the Little Englander mindset, then you have a hell of a job quelling general ignorance.

If Brexit gets the lid put on it, they'll still have to be concerned with what's going on beneath the lid. While others think normality has resumed, Brexit and its ingredients will be back in darkness, coalescing, transmogrifying into something darker, more virulent and more cunning.

8-10

VinLieger wrote: »

How does he get the WA through parliament though?

No Backstop if border is down the sea

VinLieger

8-10 wrote: »

No Backstop if border is down the sea

Which he needs to get parliament to agree to

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

With the amount of sh*t they've slung at the EU, how could they sit at a table negotiating an FTA like none of that happened?

For all the bluster, the UK have not actually said or done anything very bad in the negotiations themselves. They negotiated the WA, which did not get ratified. They requested an extension, and then another. Now they need another extension.

All the palaver in Parliament is not really the EU's problem - negotiations essentially ended at Christmas with the WA, since then the action has all been in London, the UK negotiating with itself.

The EU are a professional outfit and if the UK ever start negotiating the Future Relationship, they will absolutely sit down with whoever the UK send to do it.

jimmycrackcorm

VinLieger wrote: »

How does he get the WA through parliament though?

I think as the prorogue is to wind down the clock, the only likely options left with no time left are hard crash or WA with NI backstop.

With no deal being disastrous and the NI sea border letting Britain be free to pursue it's course of action then there will be no time left to do anything else.

Am extension is pointless so when it comes to the actual choice has to be made then parliment will have to go with the NI WA option.
The DUP are now neutralised, the Scottish will demand a referendum but will be told NI is a special case. Boris will get his Brexit.

Remainers will not be happy but the UK is exciting and if they really wanted to stay then we'd be witnessing HK scenes in London.

Zubeneschamali

VinLieger wrote: »

How does he get the WA through parliament though?

Yep - Labour didn't like the WA last time, and now they have an opportunity to block Brexit, make Boris eat crow or resign and then have an election after Oct 31 while he looks like a loser and the Brexit party takes a bite out of his vote.

Why would Labour back the WA now?

The ERG hate the WA and by voting it down, keep alive their dream of No Deal. Why would they back the WA now?

The LibDems, Greens and SNP don't want any Brexit at all, and by blocking it now, they get the chance at a new government which will call a referendum and allow Remain another chance. Why would they back the WA now?

So Boris would rely on party stalwarts less the ERG + what, Labour leavers who dislike Corbyn enough to back the worst Tory PM ever?

I don't think it could pass.

8-10

VinLieger wrote: »

Which he needs to get parliament to agree to

He doesn't need them to agree before negotiating the deal. If he goes away and negotiates with the EU and the only change is the red lines so that border can go down the Irish sea, the EU can drop the backstop and he can have that WA put to a vote in the Commons.

That wouldn't work for the DUP but would be a really good outcome for NI as a whole and the rest of the UK, which secretly doesn't care about NI anyway, can have their Brexit in an orderly fashion on the agreed date.

Completely over-simplified opinion but the present situation is just illogical: the UK want to remove the backstop because they are afraid they will be kept aligned indefinitely. In reality, they will only remain aligned with the EU if there are no workable alternatives. And the only way that they can remove the backstop, is with the mutual agreement of a workable alternative.

So it's a catch-22

J Mysterio

Hard Man Steve Baker is absolutely eviscerated in the comments of his nasty, spiteful tweet. The man has absolutely no integrity. He swans around Westminster in his arrogant manner as if he is some kingmaker. Apparently, his wife is a doctor and yet he has no problem impugning another. Well, seems most agree with the good doctor.



https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1170617645537923072

Zubeneschamali

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I think as the prorogue is to wind down the clock, the only likely options left with no time left are hard crash or WA with NI backstop...
Am extension is pointless

If you don't like No Deal or the WA (and we know from past votes that Parliament does not like either of them) an extension is not pointless, since it prevents either of those outcomes happening on Oct. 31st.

Since an election is coming along with the extension, all sides can hope to win the election and get the outcome they want.

briany

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I think as the prorogue is to wind down the clock, the only likely options left with no time left are hard crash or WA with NI backstop.

With no deal being disastrous and the NI sea border letting Britain be free to pursue it's course of action then there will be no time left to do anything else.

Am extension is pointless so when it comes to the actual choice has to be made then parliment will have to go with the NI WA option.
The DUP are now neutralised, the Scottish will demand a referendum but will be told NI is a special case. Boris will get his Brexit.

Remainers will not be happy but the UK is exciting and if they really wanted to stay then we'd be witnessing HK scenes in London.

If the UK is pushed to the precipice of no-deal by Boris refusing to make the extension request, then I find it hard to envision the opposition helping get the WA over the line. It would essentially mean that they were bending to a play which involved an illegal move.

If, on the other hand, the EU flat out refuses the extension, then perhaps the deal might go through (if it ever made it to the table). Could the opposition move to control parliamentary business and get another reading of May's deal?

Zubeneschamali

8-10 wrote: »

He doesn't need them to agree before negotiating the deal. If he goes away and negotiates with the EU and the only change is the red lines so that border can go down the Irish sea, the EU can drop the backstop

Border in the Irish Sea IS the backstop - the original NI-only backstop.

VinLieger

8-10 wrote: »

He doesn't need them to agree before negotiating the deal. If he goes away and negotiates with the EU and the only change is the red lines so that border can go down the Irish sea, the EU can drop the backstop and he can have that WA put to a vote in the Commons.

That wouldn't work for the DUP but would be a really good outcome for NI as a whole and the rest of the UK, which secretly doesn't care about NI anyway, can have their Brexit in an orderly fashion on the agreed date.

Completely over-simplified opinion but the present situation is just illogical: the UK want to remove the backstop because they are afraid they will be kept aligned indefinitely. In reality, they will only remain aligned with the EU if there are no workable alternatives. And the only way that they can remove the backstop, is with the mutual agreement of a workable alternative.

So it's a catch-22

Border in the sea is the Backstop

But like others have pointed out Labour are unlikely to vote for the WA because they think they can get an election after october 31st, SNP and LIB dems don't want brexit at all plus they also think they can do well out of a post october 31st election so they wont vote for the WA and the ERG want no-deal so they won't vote for a WA

jimmycrackcorm

briany wrote: »

If the UK is pushed to the precipice of no-deal by Boris refusing to make the extension request, then I find it hard to envision the opposition helping get the WA over the line. It would essentially mean that they were bending to a play which involved an illegal move.

If, on the other hand, the EU flat out refuses the extension, then perhaps the deal might go through (if it ever made it to the table). Could the opposition move to control parliamentary business and get another reading of May's deal?

This is my point though. I think in particular the French will day Non to an extension, so it will come down to the last few days of October and it'll be only no deal or NI Backstop deal.

The HOC is against no deal but don't have any other option.
Ines there is a signal from the EU that an extension will come from b triggering an election.

josip

Could he pull a sickie to avoid asking for an extension or is the deputy PM bound by the same legislation?

robinph

So Johnson has been unable to call for an election because he needs 2/3rd to vote for it and he can't call for a vote of no confidence in himself which would only require a simple majority.

But now parliament is about to be suspended and he's -23 (?) from having a majority. The next thing to happen after today will be the Queens Speach of what the government plans to do in the next sitting of parliament. All he needs to do is include a line in that about leaving without a deal, everyone votes against it and the Queens Speach doesn't pass. That is essentially a vote of no confidence in himself and so an election is triggered by not getting the new session of parliament opened successfully.

He can then write the extension letter whilst parliament is then suspended for the election, which will happen after 31st October, but safe in the knowledge that all the Brexit fanatics will vote for him the following week and the process can all start again with a new date of 31st January, but now potentially a new speaker after they play dirty tricks to unseat Bercow and the various old guard from multiple parties having been unseated as well.

Akrasia

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a nonsense idea anyway. Sending two contradictory letters is exactly the same as not sending one at all.

Yes, but imagine I'm a total smartarse who is trying to prove a point

I send you a letter with a signed contract offering to sell you my house for €1
And another letter with a signed contract asking you to sell me back my house for €1

You could sign the first contract, buy my house for €1 and then simply ignore the 2nd letter

I could protest that I changed my mind and the 2nd contract nullifies the first, but you could say that you never agreed to sell your newly acquired property to me for €1 so there only ever was one contract, the one signed by both parties.

The moral of the story being, it would be a very stupid idea to make a legally binding commitment in the hope that the other party will simply agree to disregard it if they are asked to later.

8-10

briany wrote: »

Could the opposition move to control parliamentary business and get another reading of May's deal?

Doesn't the Kinnock amendment already allow for that?

8-10

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Border in the Irish Sea IS the backstop - the original NI-only backstop.

VinLieger wrote: »

Border in the sea is the Backstop

Not quite, the backstop agreement is for the whole of the UK to be aligned with EU customs union after the post-Brexit transition period, not just NI

Duane Dibbley

Anyone know what time voting is this evening?

J Mysterio

54and56 wrote: »

I always enjoyed Faisal Islams contributions on Sky but since becoming BBC Economics Editor he seems to have moved out of the front line a lot and isn't used as the flagship Newsnight Economics Editor as that is given to Ben Chu.

Tony Connelly is required reading for anyone looking for an Irish slant on what's going on Brexit wise. He is massively insightful and clearly very well connected.

Peter Foster is relatively new on my radar but over the last few weeks I've been reading some of his output, which as Europe Editor of The Telegraph, I was expecting to be partisan flag waving bluster but he seems to have a super ability to strip away the noise and really focus on the practical realities.

He absolutely rips the BoJo/ERG nonsense apart in last weeks Choppers Brexit Podcast which is without doubt the best 30 minutes of Brexit podcast I've ever listened to.

I recommend everyone take the time to enjoy this.

It was a pretty good listen. Your man Foster obviously understands the issues, which is quite refreshing.

Hearing the other guy - Tim or whatever his name was - try and compare the WA to the NAFTA deal when asking 'where is the equivalent backstop in NAFTA?' was an absolute facepalm moment though. There are so many people in the UK who would appear to be reasonably intelligent (good education, good job, nice suit) and they just don't flucking get it.

I also watched the video linked to in your signature: 'this man is a hero' - I hadn't seen that before and it was really powerful, hairs standing up watching that.

Akrasia

josip wrote: »

Could he pull a sickie to avoid asking for an extension or is the deputy PM bound by the same legislation?

He'd want to be fair sick to not be able to send a letter when he doesn't even have to buy his own stamps

Leroy42

Akrasia wrote: »

He'd want to be fair sick to not be able to send a letter when he doesn't even have to buy his own stamps

Its funny, because I actually think they have already thought of it!

But again, Johnson is supposed to the man that leads the UK into the new dawn of being outside the EU. Leading the negotiations with countries all around the world.

Yet he is afraid of his own parliament, looks to break his own laws and is, by all reports, not engaging in any sort of meaningful discussions because he can't think of how to solve any of the problems.

Are other countries really going to want to deal with level of incompetence? The EU are duty bound to at least appear to want to continue discussions, but countries like the US will have no such duty.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

If UK allies itself towards Russia after Brexit, then they'll probably not bother.

Why on earth would the UK align itself with a lesser power? According to this, the UK is currently the sixth richest nation in the world with Russia being twelfth. In addition, Russia is even more unequal than the UK, 78 to 105 respectively in the rankings based on the Gini coefficient, a measure of economic disparity.

Straying into the anecdotal here, I know but when I was in Russia, the variation I saw in Moscow and St. Petersburg was shocking. Parts of these cities aren't too much more aesthetically pleasing than Havana and you'll find proper upscale boutiques, cafes and the like for Russia's ultra rich not far away. I thought the north of England was but this was completely different. All Russia really has to trade with is its oil and natural gas reserves and this isn't a long term strategy.

The smart strategy for the UK would be to align with China or the US though obviously this is once the idea of alienating their closest friends and allies is implemented fully.

VinLieger

8-10 wrote: »

Not quite, the backstop agreement is for the whole of the UK to be aligned with EU customs union after the post-Brexit transition period, not just NI

The original backstop was for NI only though so a border in the Irish sea is simply the original backstop that was suggested by the UK

Popeleo

robinph wrote: »

All he needs to do is include a line in that about leaving without a deal, everyone votes against it and the Queens Speach doesn't pass. That is essentially a vote of no confidence in himself and so an election is triggered by not getting the new session of parliament opened successfully.

I don't think that is possible (but it would surprise me if it was not considered by this shower). The FTPA specifies the exact wording for a VONC, so passing or otherwise of the Queen's Speech or any other motion would not trigger it.

Just one line - "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's government." And the opposition haven't been stupid enough so far to go down that road.