Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But the EU would probably offer an extension if Johnson were going to do the sensible thing and have a backstop referendum in NI. Oh wait, Johnson categorically ruled out an extension last night in the HoC. Ah well.

so it's a deal then? or breaking the law of the land?

Headshot

Anyone have that video of BJ doing exercises during the press conference with Leo yesterday?

Professor Moriarty

lawred2 wrote: »

so it's a deal then? or breaking the law of the land?

Yes but no but. Maybe.

Johnson is increasingly looking like a person who is genuinely losing control of his thoughts. His appearance and demeanour seem as if he has aged 10 years in 5 weeks. He's obviously not coping with the stress. At best, his behaviour could be described as erratic and impulsive. I suspect that part of this stress is that, driven by ambition, he is doing things that run counter to some of his intrinsic principles and those of his family. Cummings and his Leave gang are not a natural fit for the Johnson family and they are controlling Johnson. Hence the cognitive dissonance and consequential stress.

jm08

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An all-UK backstop would stabilise NI, because it would guarantee the continuation of the present circumstances both north-south and east-west.

But an NI-only backstop changes the east-west circumstances.

Well, its up to the DUP to sell it to their friends in the ERG and BJohnson. That all UK offer is there from the EU.

lawred2

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone have that video of BJ doing exercises during the press conference with Leo yesterday?

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1171052439111442432

prawnsambo

Headshot wrote: »

Anyone have that video of BJ doing exercises during the press conference with Leo yesterday?

I saw this one. Probably not suitable for this thread, but it was objectively funny and quite a remarkable bit of video editing.

Enzokk

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Right I went to bed at half twelve because one I had to get up early this morning and two because I assumed the process once Boris Johnson lost the vote it would be over quickly. But from reading Twitter this morning and seeing video on sky news it went on until nearly half one and it became even more farcical than it had been earlier in the evening. I mean the shambles comes to mind.

It was a shambles, MPs making points that made no sense at all that contradicted their own points in the same speech (Tory Brexit is what the country want, but the SNP thinks they speak for Scotland, work that one out for me) and a general boisterousness where I believe a few MPs had a drink or ten before going back to work.

Here is some highlights of the end of it.

https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/1171234922717220864?s=20

Back to Brexit, seems like the ball is in the UK court (like we didn't know it already),

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1171375158730342401?s=20

The EU has done well to troll the UK in all of this, appointing Phil Hogan as Trade Commissioner as well.

And finally, lets see how much credibility the Nicky Morgan has,

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1171292483659190274?s=20

That is none then, out for herself, she will fit in well with her boss then.

Shelga

Leroy42 wrote: »

The DUP are in a bind though. If the HoC passes the WA, with whatever flavour of the backstop, how can they claim to be part of the UK and respect the will of the people and at the same time decry the UK?

Their mantra that NI must exit on the same terms is not based on anything expect their own wishes and they can't complain if the UK, as a while, decides something else.

It is the same for Scotland. They either accept Brexit outcome or the alternative is to leave the UK.

That’s a really good point. The DUP’s standard defence, when it is pointed out to them that Northern Ireland voted Remain, is that Brexit is an all-UK decision, and they are part of the UK.

If a NI-only backstop gets through the HoC, they are then put in a position where they have to accept this, as it is parliament’s will, or accept that the rest of the UK does not care about the DUP’s version of ‘the union’ as much as the DUP themselves do. This has been obvious to everyone else from day one, but they’ve been allowed to be publicly in denial about this til now. This would really be a massive paradox of their entire ridiculous ideology, surely?

Now I want to see Sammy Wilson’s red face on Newsnight, apoplectic with rage, after THAT vote happens!

prawnsambo

Phil Hogan confirmed as EU Trade Commissioner and starts the way he intends to continue.

Water John

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

murphaph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It won't work. If they leave with a WA, we just move to the next phase, 2 years of Future Relationship talks, more deadlines whooshing by, more headlines, summits, wobblers and stunts.

If they crash out without a WA, it is worse and there is even more pressure on both sides to get a deal and more focus on it.

The only way this largely goes away for the EU is if the UK decide to remain, then most of the screaming will be confined to London (with the exception of the Brexiteer contingent in the European Parliament who will be an ongoing pain in the ass.)

My bold. But they would not be a member state of the European Union after the 31st of October so could not be the malign influence on the EU I fear they could become if they are not "allowed" to leave.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

It's the one option that he can get agreement from the EuCo on quickly and bring back to parliament for a vote in the time available. He's obviously hoping that with the time pressures bearing down on MPs, many of them will back it as the least worst option and end the stalemate.

Zubeneschamali

Water John wrote: »

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter.

Absolutely no way LibDems or SNP back it. Labour leadership, no, not when they have Johnson on the ropes.

A few, <10 Labour rebels might back it, but more than 10 ERG types will vote against along with the DUP unless they get a really huge bribe, up front in used notes, since no-one can trust this Government. The 21 expelled Tories will probably not feel much like helping Johnson out of a hole, even if they voted for May's similar deal before.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's obviously hoping that with the time pressures bearing down on MPs, many of them will back it as the least worst option and end the stalemate.

This can't work now as all they have to do is reject it to force him to request an extension (or resign, or be replaced).

It's really clear that the reason he wanted No Deal on the table was to threaten MPs with it, not the EU.

Leroy42

Water John wrote: »

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

Whilst I think he has made massive mis-steps throughout, I do think that this was his plan all along. He could not have really believed that his tough man act would actually make any difference in the EU, what he was asking for was simply no possible to give and the fact that he climbed down so quickly on his original demand of only talking once the backstop was removed is a sign of that.

I think he knew that WA was a non runner at the current time, something had to change for it to get through. The numbers against had been reducing but he needed something else. Making the HoC believe that he was mad enough to go with No Deal, as he is still running with despite the recent legislation calling for an extension, is IMO designed to push the HoC into an either/or position.

And tbf, the HoC has for too long continued to say what it doesn't want, but cannot agree on what it wants. So wind the clock down but don't blink like TM did. But the HoC never believed that TM would go with No Deal so a vote against any deal was a free vote. With the clock ticking down to 31st, and now with parliament suspended, he can simply wait it out with the plan to turn up on 19th or whatever (the 11th Hour) with a final offer. WA (with NI only backstop) or No Deal.

Water John

They also know Cummings has no issue with a Crash Out Brexit and is the person calling the shots.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This can't work now as all they have to do is reject it to force him to request an extension (or resign, or be replaced).

It's really clear that the reason he wanted No Deal on the table was to threaten MPs with it, not the EU.

But getting an extension only kicks the can down the road. It doesn't even come with a guarantee that it would be granted. Especially with a viable (according to Johnson) deal on the table that may only be rejected by a small majority.

And he could get the numbers. If he gets the DUP on side (and the noises coming from that quarter could suggest that), then the ERG hardliners would be happy on that front and would also put the 'Singapore on Thames' holy grail within their reach. The option facing them if they reject it is an extension, an election and the possibility that Corbyn could get into No. 10.

It's a last chance saloon, beyond which is a very uncertain future.

Kermit.de.frog

The Telegraph is on Hogan's case. Good sign.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/european-commission-names-irish-brexit-critic-handle-eu-uk-trade/

Panrich

prawnsambo wrote: »

Phil Hogan confirmed as EU Trade Commissioner and starts the way he intends to continue.

It's not going to make the job any easier to be giving his opinion in public like this. His words will now be twisted to suit the purpose of the ERG/DUP. The suggestion needs to come from the UK and this risks spooking those who might be slowly coming around to the idea.

Leroy42

Panrich wrote: »

It's not going to make the job any easier to be giving his opinion in public like this. His words will now be twisted to suit the purpose of the ERG/DUP. The suggestion needs to come from the UK and this risks spooking those who might be slowly coming around to the idea.

Yeah and if he stays silent it will be classed as the EU not taking Brexit seriously, or ignoring the will of the people or,or or.....

UK is charting a path to go into the world on its own, separate from the combined power that is the EU.

Yet they seem to get awfully worked up should someone say or not say, anything that doesn't agree with their position.

bilston

Water John wrote: »

The other point on why Johnson is stressed is a work load the man was never used to.

NI only backstop looks like it's what Johnson is running with, how he'll get it through is another matter. If he had ran with it when elected he might have got enough LB MPs to back it, but he has burned all those options.

Johnson looks like he has aged 10 years in less than 2 months.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

They also know Cummings has no issue with a Crash Out Brexit and is the person calling the shots.

I'd say his days are numbered. Seems to me his plan for Oct 31st has failed. He is despised. Better for Johnson to fire him.

hometruths

Leroy42 wrote: »

Whilst I think he has made massive mis-steps throughout, I do think that this was his plan all along. He could not have really believed that his tough man act would actually make any difference in the EU, what he was asking for was simply no possible to give and the fact that he climbed down so quickly on his original demand of only talking once the backstop was removed is a sign of that.

I think he knew that WA was a non runner at the current time, something had to change for it to get through. The numbers against had been reducing but he needed something else. Making the HoC believe that he was mad enough to go with No Deal, as he is still running with despite the recent legislation calling for an extension, is IMO designed to push the HoC into an either/or position.

And tbf, the HoC has for too long continued to say what it doesn't want, but cannot agree on what it wants. So wind the clock down but don't blink like TM did. But the HoC never believed that TM would go with No Deal so a vote against any deal was a free vote. With the clock ticking down to 31st, and now with parliament suspended, he can simply wait it out with the plan to turn up on 19th or whatever (the 11th Hour) with a final offer. WA (with NI only backstop) or No Deal.

Agree with everything you say, have always felt the push for No Deal was designed not to make the EU back down, but to make the HoC to feel that the only way to avoid No Deal was to back a deal.

prawnsambo

Panrich wrote: »

It's not going to make the job any easier to be giving his opinion in public like this. His words will now be twisted to suit the purpose of the ERG/DUP. The suggestion needs to come from the UK and this risks spooking those who might be slowly coming around to the idea.

But there also needs to be public statements from the EU that this option is still a runner. So Boris can point to that and put more pressure on waverers to back it (if that's his plan). And as I said earlier, it's the one option that could get through the EuCo quickly, thus making Johnson's statements on the subject look truthful for once.

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Telegraph is on Hogan's case. Good sign.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/european-commission-names-irish-brexit-critic-handle-eu-uk-trade/

It really is a stunning move from the EU that has the UK cornered. Screw Ireland and NI in this, and you are in a very, very bad position going forward.

listermint

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'd say his days are numbered. Seems to me his plan for Oct 31st has failed. He is despised. Better for Johnson to fire him.

knowing Politics, Its always very useful to have a handy fool to take the flack for being the worst. Cummings does this for Johnson very well.

Hes not going anywhere as he is optically useful for this deflection.

J Mysterio

listermint wrote: »

knowing Politics, Its always very useful to have a handy fool to take the flack for being the worst. Cummings does this for Johnson very well.

Hes not going anywhere as he is optically useful for this deflection.

But exactly as you say - things are not going well. Fire Cummings and let him take blame.

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

But exactly as you say - things are not going well. Fire Cummings and let him take blame.

I'd say that option is being held in reserve for when (if) things go spectacularly wrong.

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'd say that option is being held in reserve for when (if) things go spectacularly wrong.

I'd argue we passed that point

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

I'd argue we passed that point

I chose that word 'spectacularly' carefully.
Until we've passed the 31st October without an exit, the other shoe is still in transit towards the floor.