Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An NI-only backstop may be a "good deal" in purely economic terms (it still isn't nearly as good as the current situation) - but that isn't the point - the point is that it takes Northern Ireland out of the same customs zone as the rest of the UK, and crucially, in identity terms, weakens the ties between NI and Britain.

We in the Republic don't want our ties to the North weakened. Unionists don't want their ties to Britain to be weakened either.

Even though I aspire to see a united Ireland, I can understand their view.

Yes, there's a sea. There's sea between different parts of lots of countries.

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France, or South Islanders in New Zealand if they were transferred into a different customs zone to North Island, Sicily and Italy, Crete and Greece etc. etc.

Would they put up with it (as this 'separation' is a purely abstract thing*) if the alternative was economic disaster? I think they would.

fash

hill16bhoy wrote: »

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France, or South Islanders in New Zealand if they were transferred into a different customs zone to North Island, Sicily and Italy, Crete and Greece etc. etc.

The Corsicans, Kiwis etc. never campaigned for a change to the status quo and sought a change that required the installation of a new border.

Kermit.de.frog

I see the DUP have been summoned to Downing Street.

A "whiskey and revolver" moment?

Water John

Most of them don't drink alcohol, so that's Hobson's choice.

Harry Palmr

Quite a potential test of character coming up for Ulster Unionism - to which are they more loyal - the Crown or the half crown?

LeinsterDub

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't know that the ERG would definitively reject it. It has the major bonus of allowing the UK make trade deals (and whatever else they want to do post TP) that they couldn't if they were in the all-UK backstop. All the level playing field stuff that they didn't like is gone too. So other than loyalty to the DUP [snigger], there's not much they could object to in principle.

Aren't they on record saying they'll reject the WA no matter what even if the backstop is removed?

prawnsambo

Igotadose wrote: »

It still contains the tax-avoidance laws that the ERG despise. So, I expect they'll be against it still. Nope, no new deal before 19 October, then a request for suspension for an election in November.

I stand to be corrected on this, but I don't think that's in the WA except the TP and backstop. And possibly future relationship, but that's a movable feast anyway.

prawnsambo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Aren't they on record saying they'll reject the WA no matter what even if the backstop is removed?

Yes. Because there were 'level playing field' conditions that may not need to be there if the all-UK backstop were dropped. Or at least that's what I heard them objecting to.

hill16bhoy

flanna01 wrote: »

The DUP need to look at the bigger picture..

They are about 700yrs behind modern society, their political clout is declining rapidly.

In another ten or twenty years, there will be a United Ireland weather they like it or not. The GFA which was agreed upon will ensure this happens sooner rather than later.

Look at the even bigger picture... It doesn't really matter what piece of rock you cling to. Be it the UK rock, the Irish rock, or the tip of Northern Ireland land mass.... We'er all practically the same, put the bigotry behind us, and embrace the future..

The DUP are mostly bigots, but your third paragraph there is the exact sort of almost trolling Republican rhetoric I was talking about earlier.

Nobody knows what the next 10 or 20 years will bring.

It may bring some form of united Ireland, equally it may not and any united Ireland could still be many decades away if indeed it ever happens.

But shouting at unionists that there is going to be a united Ireland in the next 20 years whether they like or not is not the best way to bring it about, and neither is dismissing their concerns about being forcibly taken out of the customs union of what, remember, is still currently their own country.

I hope this NI-only backstop does not happen, because while it's obviously of paramount importance to keep the current open border in Ireland, I also see it as a matter of great importance that no restrictions are put on trade in an east-west direction.

Neither do I see it as a matter of hilarity if Britain effectively throws unionists under a bus, because I respect unionists' right to their identity.

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude in Ireland in this regard, and its unhelpful. Respect is a two way street.

hometruths

If Johnson brings the WA to the house with the border down the sea, before any election, his ruthlessness with Clarke, Soames etc may yet serve him well.

One Nation Tories will probably vote for the WA in the national interest, but the ERG etc may think twice about voting against it, if they know there is an election coming up and they will be thrown out and deselected.

After all if Johnson is prepared to fire the father of the house and Churchill's grandson he won't think twice about firing Brexit's hard man.

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

Most of them don't drink alcohol, so that's Hobson's choice.

I'd say their weddings and funerals are great craic.

I love the play and drama. Relax. There's no crash out. it's NI who will be saved and the DUP will save face for having fought.

I had beers with my Brexiteer friend when Boris became PM and we saw this as the likely outcome. It's what's going to happen. It's grand.

Shelga

hill16bhoy wrote: »

The DUP are mostly bigots, but your third paragraph there is the exact sort of almost trolling Republican rhetoric I was talking about earlier.

Nobody knows what the next 10 or 20 years will bring.

It may bring some form of united Ireland, equally it may not and any united Ireland could still be many decades away if indeed it ever happens.

But shouting at unionists that there is going to be a united Ireland in the next 20 years whether they like or not is not the best way to bring it about, and neither is dismissing their concerns about being forcibly taken out of the customs union of what, remember, is still currently their own country.

I hope this NI-only backstop does not happen, because while it's obviously of paramount importance to keep the current open border in Ireland, I also see it as a matter of great importance that no restrictions are put on trade in an east-west direction.

Neither do I see it as a matter of hilarity if Britain effectively throws unionists under a bus, because I respect unionists' right to their identity.

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude in Ireland in this regard, and its unhelpful. Respect is a two way street.

Well said. I agree. Unfortunately I think it’s all too easy to forget that the DUP do not speak for all unionists, not even close.

hill16bhoy

fash wrote: »

The Corsicans, Kiwis etc. never campaigned for a change to the status quo and sought a change that required the installation of a new border.

For all their bigotry I don't believe the DUP have ever campaigned for a hard border in Ireland either during this process.

They campaigned on what the Brexiteers in England did - unicorns and visions of sunlit uplands - ie. to keep all of the benefits of EU membership and dispense with all responsibilities - a massive free lunch in other words.

Northern Ireland's votes did not make the difference in the referendum however, and even had the DUP campaigned for remain, they'd still be in the same position they are in now.

I don't see stupidity as a crime and I don't see it as worthy of punishment by the imposition of something nobody really wants either.

Itssoeasy

Deleted User wrote: »

I love the play and drama. Relax. There's no crash out. it's NI who will be saved and the DUP will save face for having fought.

I had beers with my Brexiteer friend when Boris became PM and we saw this as the likely outcome. It's what's going to happen. It's grand.

I take it you'll be winning the lottery this week ?

hometruths

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Neither do I see it as a matter of hilarity if Britain effectively throws unionists under a bus, because I respect unionists' right to their identity.

I think there's a lot of schadenfreude in Ireland in this regard, and its unhelpful. Respect is a two way street.

I would dearly love to see the DUP thrown under the bus, not because of any Nationalist/Unionist ideology, but because they have behaved abominably in this whole sorry mess.

Schadenfreude it may be, but boy do they have it coming. And it is important to remember that if NI is offered a special status enabling it to trade freely with both the EU and the UK, surely that is a wonderful result for the people of NI, the DUP's constituents?

The fact that they would rather see NI suffer than compromise on their paranoid blood red lines because they are terrified of 'greens under the bed', to me suggests they don't deserve respect.

Itssoeasy

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I take it you'll be winning the lottery this week ?

If I could easily put money on it, I would.

I'm already losing to that guy from a previous bet where I didn't think they'd leave at all.

My opinion stands. I think it's going to be grand. This is all just chaos before the backstop gets put on NI only.

jimmycrackcorm

hill16bhoy wrote: »

An NI-only backstop may be a "good deal" in purely economic terms (it still isn't nearly as good as the current situation) - but that isn't the point - the point is that it takes Northern Ireland out of the same customs zone as the rest of the UK, and crucially, in identity terms, weakens the ties between NI and Britain.

We in the Republic don't want our ties to the North weakened. Unionists don't want their ties to Britain to be weakened either.
.

I think this analysis is incorrect. There is no change in British identity of there is Sara border. It already exists for SPS and it's ridiculous for unionists to claim they don't want a divergence from the rest of the UK when they were happy to block SSM and abortion that the rest of the UK has.

They also wanted a lower corporate tax rate to rival the ROI that was different than GB.
So it's clear that divergence is acceptable.

But an inland border is definitely a break in the identity fundamentals that unsub the GFA.
What you are aluding to is that the DUP sense of Britishness is to ignore the wider community and what is best for it.
They should actually recognize that SF are inwardly pleased about the prospect of a hard brexit that will drive reunification sooner

Kermit.de.frog

BBC reporting that Boris Johnson is currently presenting the DUP with it's Brexit "options".

All the options in no particular order are:

1. Closer integration with the south
2. Closer integration with the south
3. Closer integration with the south

The DUP votes are completely irrelevant to the Tories now and Boris needs a quick deal.

One way or another the DUP has damaged NI's position in the UK. It's just a question of "to what extent?"

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm already losing to that guy from a previous bet where I didn't think they'd leave at all.

I don't think you have lost that bet yet.

If Parliament rejects whatever deal Johnson brings back from Brussels in October (if he gets a deal at all), then an extension, election, referendum and revocation of A50 are perfectly possible.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

If I could easily put money on it, I would.

I'm already losing to that guy from a previous bet where I didn't think they'd leave at all.

My opinion stands. I think it's going to be grand. This is all just chaos before the backstop gets put on NI only.

If that was the plan all along, then when you look back on what's happened, you'd have to either think it's the most fortuitous series of coincidences or a very clever plan.

Like how do you convince the opposition to not vote your government out of office when you haven't the numbers to stop them?

CelticRambler

Point of order, Mr. Speaker!

hill16bhoy wrote: »

I doubt Corsicans would be too pleased if they were in a different customs zone to France ...

fash wrote: »

The Corsicans, Kiwis etc. never campaigned for a change to the status quo and sought a change that required the installation of a new border.

Don't go citing the Corsicans as examples of a model of how the DUP should behave! :eek: There is a very active independence movement in Corsica, quite happy to accidentally set fire to any building associated with French rule on the island. They would love nothing more than a change to the status quo, especially if that meant having a shiny new border with France and being allowed speak their own language in their own regional government.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

If that was the plan all along, then when you look back on what's happened, you'd have to either think it's the most fortuitous series of coincidences or a very clever plan.

I think it is one of those plans where no matter what happens the authors will claim its exactly what they intended.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think it is one of those plans where no matter what happens the authors will claim its exactly what they intended.

Except the "Do or die" promise can't be whitewashed away.

hill16bhoy

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I think this analysis is incorrect. There is no change in British identity of there is Sara border. It already exists for SPS and it's ridiculous for unionists to claim they don't want a divergence from the rest of the UK when they were happy to block SSM and abortion that the rest of the UK has.

They also wanted a lower corporate tax rate to rival the ROI that was different than GB.
So it's clear that divergence is acceptable.

But an inland border is definitely a break in the identity fundamentals that unsub the GFA.
What you are aluding to is that the DUP sense of Britishness is to ignore the wider community and what is best for it.
They should actually recognize that SF are inwardly pleased about the prospect of a hard brexit that will drive reunification sooner

There's a big difference between autonomy in some areas for the constituent parts of the UK, which in NI's case was voted for democratically via the Good Friday Agreement referendum, and being told you are diverging from the rest of the UK through no choice of your own.

I think in many areas the DUP's bigotry leads them to adopt positions which are very bad for society as a whole.

But despite their extremely stupid campaigning for Brexit and their often toe curlingly awful rhetoric, I think in reality they've remained reasonably steadfast in their wish to keep both the current north-south and east-west circumstances intact.

I suspect you may be right about a lot of people in SF, or at least a lot of their supporters, secretly desiring a hard border as a sort of disruptive event that proves a catalyst for a united Ireland, sadly, even though they would publicly deny this.

But that's by the by, and Sinn Fein have no power in this situation. The DUP have now all but joined them in that boat.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

Except the "Do or die" promise can't be whitewashed away.

If necessary, he will go down fighting and show that he tried to do or die, but was stabbed in the back by traitors.

This is not the end! Back me, and I will fight on in the coming election, and if necessary, win the next referendum!

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If necessary, he will go down fighting and show that he tried to do or die, but was stabbed in the back by traitors.

This is not the end! Back me, and I will fight on in the coming election, and if necessary, win the next referendum!

Yes. But he can't say the outcome = the plan. Because he nailed his colours to the 31st October.

hill16bhoy

CelticRambler wrote: »

Point of order, Mr. Speaker!





Don't go citing the Corsicans as examples of a model of how the DUP should behave! :eek: There is a very active independence movement in Corsica, quite happy to accidentally set fire to any building associated with French rule on the island. They would love nothing more than a change to the status quo, especially if that meant having a shiny new border with France and being allowed speak their own language in their own regional government.

A quick internet search indicates that there's nowhere near a majority in favour of Corsican independence.

Fr Tod Umptious

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'd say their weddings and funerals are great craic.

I'm sure they are fine.

Apologies for not towing the "drink is essential for good fun line" that most Irish believe.

joe40

fash wrote: »

Correct: it is true that a border in any location changes the status quo, however a land border is more disruptive than a sea border. Furthermore, the DUP campaigned for brexit (i.e. to change the status quo) and supported a particularly hard brexit which requires a border (again to change the status quo).
What right do they have to complain that the status quo is now changing?

Exactly. I would have sympathy for NI unionist if they had campaigned against Brexit and shouted about the border issue loudly in the HoC. The average British person including government ministers are largely clueless. They think 20 years of peace mean everything is fine.
The DUP were in a unique position to warn against the danger Brexit posed in Ireland.

Instead the actively campaigned for Brexit in a blatant attempt to undermine the GFA and bring the north closer to Britain, by distancing themselves from Europe but really from Ireland.

So I have very little sympathy if there is a ni only backstop they have themselves to blame.
The really crazy thing is a prosperous and peaceful northern Ireland guarantees the Union with Britain.