Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

drkpower

Enzokk wrote: »

I think this confirms a lot of people's opinion of the work from Laura Keunssberg,

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171713664392597505?s=20

If you look at her tweets after this one it seems like she is always behind on this story today and just reporting what is coming out and not really on top of it. This was the first tweet but her retweets and her tweets themselves seems so behind and it does feel like she is either slow or not following the correct people, especially as it pertains to this story today at least. She seems to rely on statements instead of focusing on the story here, the PM basically has been found in the courts to have lied to the Queen.

Or she is being honest...

There are many possibilities now, and tweeters are just laying them out but it is completely accurate to say ts hard to say what hapens from here;
it could be as simple as the SC upholding the appeals, and nothing happens.
Or they dismiss the appeals, and we are in full constitutional crisis mode
Or Boris cancels the prorogue
Or parliamentarians go back in and start voting on motions and legislation between now and Tuesday (would be interesting to see if they go in and vote on a motion to hold a referendum and see if the Tories go in to vote against....)
Or even the Queen recalls the prorogue
Or a million other things

All are possible, just different degrees of likelihood

An Ciarraioch

Lord Ashcroft poll on NI - 51% would vote for a united Ireland, 55% would rather remain in the EU than the UK, and 60% support the backstop:

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/

Enzokk

drkpower wrote: »

Or she is being honest...

There are many possibilities now, and tweeters are just laying them out but it is completely accurate to say ts hard to say what hapens from here;
it could be as simple as the SC upholding the appeals, and nothing happens.
Or they dismiss the appeals, and we are in full constitutional crisis mode
Or Boris cancels the prorogue
Or parliamentarians go back in and start voting on motions and legislation between now and Tuesday (would be interesting to see if they go in and vote on a motion to hold a referendum and see if the Tories go in to vote against....)
Or even the Queen recalls the prorogue
Or a million other things

All are possible, just different degrees of likelihood

The Prime Minister involved the Queen for political gain and he lied to her. That is the story here, not what could happen but that a court of law found that he misled her to ask for prorogation. I will happily apologize if the Supreme Court finds that the Scottish Court was wrong in their ruling on the facts of the case, but it will only probably rule on whether there is recourse through the courts for remedy (opening of parliament again) or not.

drkpower

Enzokk wrote: »

The Prime Minister involved the Queen for political gain and he lied to her. That is the story here, not what could happen but that a court of law found that he misled her to ask for prorogation. I will happily apologize if the Supreme Court finds that the Scottish Court was wrong in their ruling on the facts of the case, but it will only probably rule on whether there is recourse through the courts for remedy (opening of parliament again) or not.

Sure, but everyone knows that already. Its hardly news.

Whats news is whether the courts find that it was unlawful; and the answer to that will only be found out on Tuesday.

Edit: to be pedantic, Boris probably didn't explicitly lie; probably more of a case of being economic with the truth; it is accurate to say that he advised the Queen to prorogue parliament to allow for a Queen's speech and all the usual stuff; that was indeed accurate, so not a lie per se; what he of curse omitted was that he was also asking her to do it to bypass parliamentary scrutiny; so 'misled' is probably the better characterisation!

AngryHippie

SNIP.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Serious discussion only please.

MarinersBlues

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Lord Ashcroft poll on NI - 51% would vote for a united Ireland, 55% would rather remain in the EU than the UK, and 60% support the backstop:

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/my-northern-ireland-survey-finds-the-union-on-a-knife-edge/

It would be very interesting to see the breakdown of those answers for the
50% who don't indentify as Nationalist or Unionist.

dublinjock

What a total mess brexit has become.
I was asked to vote in a referendum and i did, i voted to leave the EU and i have to admit i was a little surprised when the leave vote won.

Then we had a general election with both the main parties telling us they would deliver brexit and do as the people had instructed.
All i am able to do is vote to change things, now it seems that what i was told is true.
"If democracy was to change anything then it would be got rid of"

I really do worry about the state of Democracy in the EU, hence i voted to leave. Now im worried about Democracy in the UK and house of commons.

serfboard

trellheim wrote: »

there is unfortunately a ton of buried explosives between NI and GB.

This was covered in a great letter written by a retired offshore engineer to The Times:

James Duncan wrote:

Boris Johnson airily proposes building a bridge from Britain to Northern Ireland. As a retired offshore engineer, I know this is about as feasible as building a bridge to the moon.

Many long bridges have been built, but none across such a wide, deep and stormy stretch of water. For a great part of the 22 mile route the water is more than 1,000ft deep. It would require about 30 support towers at least 1,400ft high to carry the road deck across the deepest part and above the shipping channel. In total the bridge would require 54 towers, of heights never achieved anywhere in the world.

In addition, the trickiest section, Beaufort Dyke, was used for many years from 1946 to dump obsolete munitions. The Ministry of Defence estimates the total dumped at more than 1.5m tons. There are no maps of their locations.

No sane contractor or responsible government would consider building such a bridge, and because of the weather conditions it would probably have to be closed for considerable periods if it did.

It's not new for Johnson to propose spending large sums of money on a bridge. After all, he spent £43 million on a bridge that was never built.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

there is unfortunately a ton of buried explosives between NI and GB. See https://www2.gov.scot/uploads/documents/ae08beauforts.fh10.pdf

It's actually closer to 1.5 million tonnes. And includes incendiaries (phosphorous), explosives and chemical weapons (mustard gas).

LeinsterDub

dublinjock wrote: »

What a total mess brexit has become.
I was asked to vote in a referendum and i did, i voted to leave the EU and i have to admit i was a little surprised when the leave vote won.

Then we had a general election with both the main parties telling us they would deliver brexit and do as the people had instructed.
All i am able to do is vote to change things, now it seems that what i was told is true.
"If democracy was to change anything then it would be got rid of"

I really do worry about the state of Democracy in the EU, hence i voted to leave. Now im worried about Democracy in the UK and house of commons.

When you voted to leave who suggested no deal would realistically be the outcome?
Both major parties ruled out no deal at the last election .
https://scramnews.com/leading-anti-brexit-campaigner-femi-oluwole-tricks-nigel-farage-into-debating-with-him/

serfboard

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Must admit I assumed after prorogation that it would be in some weird sort of lockdown, possibly guarded by a strangely named regiment with swords and 18th century battledress.

Well, not quite by a strangely-named regiment, but by an individual with an unusual title - the Serjeant-at-Arms. The current holder of that title is Mohammed Amal El-Hajji.

10000maniacs

dublinjock wrote: »

What a total mess brexit has become.
I was asked to vote in a referendum and i did, i voted to leave the EU and i have to admit i was a little surprised when the leave vote won.

Then we had a general election with both the main parties telling us they would deliver brexit and do as the people had instructed.
All i am able to do is vote to change things, now it seems that what i was told is true.
"If democracy was to change anything then it would be got rid of"

I really do worry about the state of Democracy in the EU, hence i voted to leave. Now im worried about Democracy in the UK and house of commons.

You have to realize that a referendum is undemocratic. Its a snapshot of peoples views on a particular day. The fact that in this case it turned out 52/48 and there was a lot of shenanigans taking place around social media and blatant lies being told to push more people over the threshold made it even less democratic. I am not surprised people are angry and the middle has been severed from UK politics. It was always going to happen.

theguzman

From my own reading of the current situation would it be fair to say that a No Deal Brexit is now off the table? Or can Boris Ignore the motion passed and plough on breaking the law?

I can't see why the Conservatives don't just jettison off Northern Ireland and agree to a Northern Ireland only backstop, keeping NI in the Customs Union and thus avoiding the need for a hard border. This would effectively create a border down the Irish sea, I am baffled that Boris hasn't secretly reached out to Jeremy Corbyn and let them jointly pass this motion before dissolving Parliament.

The whole thing is mind boggling or does the default hard brexit seem more likely. The Northern Ireland backstop would effectively create a hard brexit for the mainland UK anyway if I read it correctly. Boris lost his majority so why he doesn't dump the DUP and reach out on a cross party basis to get Brexit done.

trellheim

it should be reminded that much as the NI bridge is being mentioned some of it is to push exactly that 43 million failure of the London bridge down in the Google search rankings

Water John

Would be interesting to see him knocking on No 10 some day, for either Johnson or Cummings to come with him to Parliament to answer questions.

Bit cynical

10000maniacs wrote: »

You have to realize that a referendum is undemocratic. Its a snapshot of peoples views on a particular day.

But then general elections are also snapshots of people's views on a particular day. Are they also undemocratic?

dublinjock

LeinsterDub wrote: »

When you voted to leave who suggested no deal would realistically be the outcome?
Both major parties ruled out no deal at the last election .
https://scramnews.com/leading-anti-brexit-campaigner-femi-oluwole-tricks-nigel-farage-into-debating-with-him/

No one suggested deal or no deal at the time. The question was leave or remain.


I am really starting to think what do we vote for, what is the point of voting.

Nody

theguzman wrote: »

From my own reading of the current situation would it be fair to say that a No Deal Brexit is now off the table? Or can Boris Ignore the motion passed and plough on breaking the law?

I can't see why the Conservatives don't just jettison off Northern Ireland and agree to a Northern Ireland only backstop, keeping NI in the Customs Union and thus avoiding the need for a hard border. This would effectively create a border down the Irish sea, I am baffled that Boris hasn't secretly reached out to Jeremy Corbyn and let them jointly pass this motion before dissolving Parliament.

The whole thing is mind boggling or does the default hard brexit seem more likely. The Northern Ireland backstop would effectively create a hard brexit for the mainland UK anyway if I read it correctly. Boris lost his majority so why he doesn't dump the DUP and reach out on a cross party basis to get Brexit done.

Because the NI part was simply an easy excuse to pin the resistance to; the actual resistance is any deal in any form because that would block their friends from benefiting from laxer rules and getting contracts. However they can't stand up and state they want to outsource NHS or rip up working legislation as a reason to block a deal; hence "Oh our friends in NI would be abandoned and we can't have that".

VinLieger

dublinjock wrote: »

No one suggested deal or no deal at the time. The question was leave or remain.


I am really starting to think what do we vote for, what is the point of voting.

No offense but it sounds like you were not paying attention to the debates around it or fully fell for "project fear".

DOCARCH

theguzman wrote: »

I am baffled that Boris hasn't secretly reached out to Jeremy Corbyn....

After today's events, I think Boris may be reaching out for his slippers quite soon!

I am sure moderate Tories are horrified.

dublinjock

10000maniacs wrote: »

You have to realize that a referendum is undemocratic. Its a snapshot of peoples views on a particular day. The fact that in this case it turned out 52/48 and there was a lot of shenanigans taking place around social media and blatant lies being told to push more people over the threshold made it even less democratic. I am not surprised people are angry and the middle has been severed from UK politics. It was always going to happen.

I think your right about referendums being undemocratic. Im so so learning this.
I know there was much lies and shenanigans went on but this is the way with politicians.
But i have never been happy with the way the EU is run and how undemocratic it is. What i didnt know and i am also learning is how undemocratic the UK house of commons is. Voting it seems changes nothing.

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

But then general elections are also snapshots of people's views on a particular day. Are they also undemocratic?

They're not snapshots in the same way as referendums. A GE is a vote for your representative in parliament. And you have the right to remove them at the next election.

Zubeneschamali

theguzman wrote: »

From my own reading of the current situation would it be fair to say that a No Deal Brexit is now off the table? Or can Boris Ignore the motion passed and plough on breaking the law?

It is theoretically off the table on Oct 31st, assuming the EU acts as expected.

In practice, Johnson may try some stunt or other to get around the law, and have to be removed through a VoNC, and replaced by a caretaker PM. Johnson has made this much more likely with his illegal prorogue shenanigans.

Currently, UK commentators seem to think the EU will grant an extension to January 31st if asked, meaning No Deal would be back on the table for Feb 1st. I think that is very unlikely, no way will the EU want to have to deal with another extension request that soon, they will just offer a take-it-or-leave it 12 or 18 months, long enough for the UK to realistically settle this one way or the other via an election and referendum.

prawnsambo

dublinjock wrote: »

No one suggested deal or no deal at the time. The question was leave or remain.

I am really starting to think what do we vote for, what is the point of voting.

So the only thing you read before you voted was the ballot paper?

VinLieger

dublinjock wrote: »

I think your right about referendums being undemocratic. Im so so learning this.
I know there was much lies and shenanigans went on but this is the way with politicians.
But i have never been happy with the way the EU is run and how undemocratic it is. What i didnt know and i am also learning is how undemocratic the UK house of commons is. Voting it seems changes nothing.

Can you give me examples of why you dislike the way the EU is run and how you see it as being undemocratic?


Also the real reason or problem with the UK being undemocratic is due to FPTP coupled with the unwritten constitution.

Professor Moriarty

DOCARCH wrote: »

After today's events, I think Boris may be reaching out for his slippers quite soon!

I am sure moderate Tories are horrified.

A dying breed.

DOCARCH

dublinjock wrote: »

But i have never been happy with the way the EU is run and how undemocratic it is.

More democratic than people think.

http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/eu-uk-democracy-compared

Also have to bear in mind that the source of a lot of myths about the EU, in the UK, was Boris Johnson, from his days a journalist/EU correspondent. He simply made things up!

volchitsa

dublinjock wrote: »

No one suggested deal or no deal at the time. The question was leave or remain.

That's what was in the ballot paper, but surely everyone knew that the Uk's wasn't planning on becoming like North Korea, and that deals with all trading partners including the EU would be needed? In fact I seem to remember Leave people saying it would be the easiest deal in history - perhaps you missed all that?

Inquitus

dublinjock wrote: »

I think your right about referendums being undemocratic. Im so so learning this.
I know there was much lies and shenanigans went on but this is the way with politicians.
But i have never been happy with the way the EU is run and how undemocratic it is. What i didnt know and i am also learning is how undemocratic the UK house of commons is. Voting it seems changes nothing.

The whole point of representative democracy is that the Government takes complex decisions using expert advice on our behalf. Referendums are not made for complex decisions like this were an average person cannot grasp the impact of what they are voting on. Cameron abdicated his responsibility as PM when he decided to have the vote.