Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK law now says that if Johnson is still playing chicken with the EU on the 19th of October, he has to ask the EU to reschedule the game to January 31st next year.

There can be no crash this year.

The ERG haven't got the memo yet. Fun and games when they do.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The ERG haven't got the memo yet. Fun and games when they do.

What exactly can the ERG do?

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK law now says that if Johnson is still playing chicken with the EU on the 19th of October, he has to ask the EU to reschedule the game to January 31st next year.

There can be no crash this year.

And the EU seem to have added "avoiding a hard brexit" to the list of things that they would grant an extension for.

As Michel Barnier said: "La balle est clairement dans le camp Britannique"

funkey_monkey

Can I re-ask a question which I posted a few days ago without reply?

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

Zubeneschamali

funkey_monkey wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

If that was the real reason, they certainly would not tell anyone.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What exactly can the ERG do?

Throw tantrums. Knife Johnson in the back at the first opportunity. Destroy the Tory Party. All kinds of good stuff.

trellheim

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Can I re-ask a question which I posted a few days ago without reply?

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

Its a bit tinfoil hat to be honest. They (HMG) agreed the WA in more or less good faith and the major stopping point is CU, Backstop .....

ERG want a clean break I dont like it but they've been crystal clear on it, and its apparently to be able to completely get back apparent sovereignty.

Rjd2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pretty mind blowing stuff here from Cadwalladr. Basically, should there not be a No Deal Brexit, a lot of people in 'the City' will lose a lot of money.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1171838817470431234

She is beginning to walk it back but obviously not enough to delete the thread with 20k retweets.:pac:

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1172145121820839936

Marina Hyde noted right winger tweeted
:pac:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/09/12/1568281802000/No-deal-Brexit-is-not-a-hedge-fund-conspiracy/


Claudia seems to be banking on her audience been very much in an echo chamber and taking her word as Gospel.

Lets see if she continues like this.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Throw tantrums. Knife Johnson in the back at the first opportunity. Destroy the Tory Party. All kinds of good stuff.

But Johnson, so far, has been as ERGy as he can possibly be, pushing No Deal, expelling Wets, going at it with oomph.

THis strategy has backfired spectacularly, but that just means if the ERG knife him they will get a less ERGish PM next time.

prawnsambo

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Can I re-ask a question which I posted a few days ago without reply?

The withdrawal agreement contains a commitment from the UK Gov to adhere to the tax avoidance directive. This would require the UK gov to legislate for it. It would then be difficult for them to remove this law without causing uproar - so the suspected real reason for Brexit would not have been avoided.

Is this correct? Is this why the ERG will still not vote for the WA?

Afaik, most of the ATAD has been implemented in UK law or was to be under the 2019 Finance Act (January 2019 or thereabouts) leaving only the law on reverse hybrids which doesn't have to be implemented until January 2022 (after the TP has expired). So that's the only bit that could be (potentially) avoided (;)) by the UK.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But Johnson, so far, has been as ERGy as he can possibly be, pushing No Deal, expelling Wets, going at it with oomph.

THis strategy has backfired spectacularly, but that just means if the ERG knife him they will get a less ERGish PM next time.

That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.

woohoo!!!

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Rjd2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.

Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf.

Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids.

The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma.

Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit.

Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.

woohoo!!!

Rjd2 wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That could be the case. However, I think more likely is that the likes of Raab, Javid and Mordaunt would happily encourage the ERG to dump Johnson on the basis that they will be even more Brexity if elected PM. You are not dealing with rational people when it comes to the ERG. You're dealing with English nationalists who would see anything other than a crash out on the 31st October as a betrayal and Johnson as a traitor to the cause.

Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf.

Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids.

The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma.

Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit.

Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.

The cult of personality dominates in this social media age. Folk will forgive the funny affable guy or girl an awful lot, or the one that calls it as it is. Half of Mays problem is that she was wooden, not what she was trying from a British perspective. She wasn't likable so she couldn't bring folk with her on the difficult details. Johnson just might be able to pull it off. They can call it whatever the hell they like once they sign a WA.

prawnsambo

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Two separate cases there. The NO case has just started, so there could be another SC appeal further down the road. As to whether the EU would respect it, I don't see how they could not. Anything else would be a statement to the effect that they don't recognise the British courts.

Professor Moriarty

Rjd2 wrote: »

Penny is not great but she is not an ERG headbanger, she voted for all of May's deals. She got a huge demotion under Boris also tbf.

Javid is also not a total headbanger also, although Raab is basically a decent looking version of Mark Francois on steroids.

The ERG have to stick with Boris, because the rest of them are hopeless when it comes to the public. There was an article I think in the telegraph where Mogg was moaning he was overexposed on tv last year, but the ERG had no choice as the rest of them have no charisma.

Patel is pritti (pun) but she was hidden away by the leave campaign after making an arse of herself on radio 4 in the run up to Brexit.

Boris is not a good politician obviously, but unlike any other ERG choices he actually has serious charisma which sadly is enough to make it in politics these days.

Well, I wouldn't see Mordaunt or Javid as anything other than Brexiteers. Raab is, well, a rabid Brexiteer. Anyway, the point is that they will do say or whatever it takes to become PM. And that would include necessarily pandering to the ERG. Patel has no chance as she's a lightweight. You're point about charisma is spot on (must not mention Corbyn...), but if Johnson reneges on his many pledges to take the UK out on the 31st then the ERG will turn on him. I can't see the likes of Francois, Mogg, Baker etc. happily accepting another extension.

woohoo!!!

prawnsambo wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Two separate cases there. The NO case has just started, so there could be another SC appeal further down the road. As to whether the EU would respect it, I don't see how they could not. Anything else would be a statement to the effect that they don't recognise the British courts.

As ever with Brexit, it's unknown territory.

Rjd2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, I wouldn't see Mordaunt or Javid as anything other than Brexiteers. Raab is, well, a rabid Brexiteer. Anyway, the point is that they will do say or whatever it takes to become PM. And that would include necessarily pandering to the ERG. Patel has no chance as she's a lightweight. You're point about charisma is spot on (must not mention Corbyn...), but if Johnson reneges on his many pledges to take the UK out on the 31st then the ERG will turn on him. I can't see the likes of Francois, Mogg, Baker etc. happily accepting another extension.

ERG should know by now without Boris they are ****ed. The rest of them simply don't have the charisma to reach the number of people Boris does.

What Boris has to sell to the masses you need an incredibly charismatic politician to do that as for many of the intended audience, leave isn't in their interest!

Heck imagine if leave did not have Cummings or Bojo? They would not have got 40% in 2016.

Its Boris or no Brexit soft, hard whatever.

Professor Moriarty

Rjd2 wrote: »

ERG should know by now without Boris they are ****ed. The rest of them simply don't have the charisma to reach the number of people Boris does.

What Boris has to sell to the masses you need an incredibly charismatic politician to do that as for many of the intended audience, leave isn't in their interest!

Heck imagine if leave did not have Cummings or Bojo? They would not have got 40% in 2016.

Its Boris or no Brexit soft, hard whatever.

I read a piece of research last year which found that the decisive factor in Leave's win was Johnson and Farage's personalities. I think if they were solid and rational politicians then the ERG would stick by him. But if he looks for an extension then I can't see them doing anything other than going bananas. Maybe if he throws NI under the bus, but I still can't see it.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I read a piece of research last year which found that the decisive factor in Leave's win was Johnson and Farage's personalities. I think if they were solid and rational politicians then the ERG would stick by him. But if he looks for an extension then I can't see them doing anything other than going bananas. Maybe if he throws NI under the bus, but I still can't see it.

Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well he's not going to look for one. Because he doesn't have to. Hillary Benn and the NO case are likely to do it without him.

Exactly. It's everyone's get out jail free card.

A Dub in Glasgo

woohoo!!! wrote: »

An interesting one re the Scottish court being legally able to sign it. I'm not certain that the EU would accept it given their previous statement that it has to come from the government, and they won't want to get involved in an internal UK legal spat. In any event, Tuesday's supreme court will have the final say.

Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today

Varta

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Final say on the prorogue, will say nothing on the case lodged today

It really is very hard to see the EU deal with anyone other than the PM. The last thing they would do is come to an agreement with a document signed by judges. Just imagine the fallout from that. No, they have kept a respectable distance from the carry on in the UK and they will continue to do so.

MadYaker

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

beggars_bush

MadYaker wrote: »

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

Might need them after an election

Itssoeasy

MadYaker wrote: »

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

No idea but he seems to be doing just that.

Imreoir2

MadYaker wrote: »

Why wouldn’t Johnson shaft the DUP at this point? He has no working majority with or without them.

It depends on what he wants, if he really wants to force no-deal and then go for a quick election, it does him no good to shaft the DUP yet. If he wants to deliver some kind of Brexit deal before the election then he will shaft them soon.

Leroy42

Johnson has no ability to get a deal passed in the HoC, he is now under serious accusation that he lied to the Queen for goodness sake! He would first have to bring back those he recently kicked out of the party, get the ERG on board and get the DUP to agree to the very thing they said they never would. He then needs to get some Labour MP's on board, when they can see that there is no way out for Johnson other than a GE, so why vote for any deal?

The EU were badly burned by TM on the original WA, when it was not only defeated by historically so. They invested massive time and effort into that and were let down by a PM not delivering their side of the bargain. Why would they risk being burnt again when all the signs are that Johnson has lost control of his own party never mind the HoC.

Don't worry about the tweets about EU leader 'liking' Johnson, or that they are open to possible alternatives. The key speech this week was delivered by Leo in Dublin. It was a deliberate, and pretty vicious (in diplomatic terms) slap down by the EU (and it would have been cleared by the EU prior IMO).

That is where the EU really stands. All the rest is just diplomats being diplomats.

Sam Russell

Why would Labour agree to a GE now or at any time in the near future?

1. They have control over HoC while they can hold the current coalition together, so they must not waste it.

2. If the form a Gov of Nat Unity, they put in someone like Ken Clarke, put there own speaker in, and say they will have a GE in six or so months.

3. They announce a Royal Commission into the whole sorry mess that was the Leave campaign, and all its illegal activity and all those involved in funding, and the rest. This to report PDQ.

4. They revoke Art 50, and announce a new referendum to be held before the next GE, with a new WA vs Remain, with the new WA to be the result of a wide study, like our Citizen's Assembly.

5. Put into action all the Tory spending already announced.

The result of these is to put distance between the current Tory shambles, while not disrespecting the original referendum, while not implementing it.

Also, there is a danger that a GE could result in a majority for a Brexit outcome based on a very low vote of less than 40%. A referendum has to get at least 50%.

In six months, the heat will have gone out of Brexit when a constant level of Gov information on the EU and its advantages are put to the people.

woohoo!!!

Sam Russell wrote: »

Why would Labour agree to a GE now or at any time in the near future?

1. They have control over HoC while they can hold the current coalition together, so they must not waste it.

2. If the form a Gov of Nat Unity, they put in someone like Ken Clarke, put there own speaker in, and say they will have a GE in six or so months.

3. They announce a Royal Commission into the whole sorry mess that was the Leave campaign, and all its illegal activity and all those involved in funding, and the rest. This to report PDQ.

4. They revoke Art 50, and announce a new referendum to be held before the next GE, with a new WA vs Remain, with the new WA to be the result of a wide study, like our Citizen's Assembly.

5. Put into action all the Tory spending already announced.

The result of these is to put distance between the current Tory shambles, while not disrespecting the original referendum, while not implementing it.

Also, there is a danger that a GE could result in a majority for a Brexit outcome based on a very low vote of less than 40%. A referendum has to get at least 50%.

In six months, the heat will have gone out of Brexit when a constant level of Gov information on the EU and its advantages are put to the people.

This is eminently sensible advice of course, which is to say that the UK will do the exact opposite, tie themselves in more knots with cunning plan and counter plan, all ignoring the salient point, this is only about the WA and PD, nothing more. They're never going to learn and the EU knows it.