Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Very promising - tomorrow's Times says the DUP are prepared to accept some regulatory checks in the Irish Sea - perhaps we really are inching towards a deal?

Seems a long way from the EU's requirements.

Brussels would have to drop its insistence that Northern Ireland remain in a customs union with the EU. Instead they would agree to fast-track so-called "alternative arrangements" to ensure that the right level of duty was paid on exports without the need for physical infrastructure at the border.

It would be nice to think the penny is dropping that there will have to be checks in the sea but I'd be worried this is just another part of the blame game if there's failure to secure a deal. DUP will insist they were prepared to be flexible but that the intransigent EU wouldn't listen.

Headshot

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Whose Michelle Dewberry on Newsnight, seems just listed as a pro-Brexit businesswomen...but can't find out much about her business acumen aside from her winning "The Apprentice"

She's often on that abomination of a tv show on Sky News "Pledge". She often talks alot nonsense and is very hardcore brexit. She tried to come a MP back in 2017 I think, iirc she got embarrassing amount of votes

listermint

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its hard to know what to think to be honest. Certainly there are bots... but there are also lots of extremely uninformed, bigoted fools.

I agree that Twitter, Facebook et all have to be held to account, they have to moderate their offering. There should probably be some verification system, but once that happens on Twitter, it probably kills the platform and we will see something rise in it's place. It's a difficult problem to solve..

If there is to be a solution, it probably has to cover the internet in its entirety, and I'm not sure that is neccesary desirable. I think Tim Berners Lee suggested something along those lines though.

4 out of every 10 accounts are fabricated. I've gone and searched various accounts the odd time pulling their supposedly legitimate images of them with the dog or whatever.john the pilot from kent etc etc to find the images are stolen from a plenty of fish account from ten years ago. It's rampant.

I don't see how making sure people have one account and the account is listed to a mobile number from country of claimed origin kills the platform. It doesn't. People can still keep their anonymous names if it comes to that but you shouldn't be able to register multiples nor claim to be from a country and be a voter and be from a different continent.

The platform is a cesspit. Even for blue ticked celebrities or whatever they just get abused by anybody and everybody.

Doing some simple changes doesn't kill the platform I think it safeguards it and makes it stronger

Charles Babbage

boggerman1 wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson telling porkies about what Leo said on Monday nearly saying he was caving in.

Well, somebody was caving in, he just managed to give the wrong impression of who it was.

Water John

It seems very simple, the Johnson play was to have Parliament 'force' him into having an election, because they wouldn't agree to Brexit. This was to be the election of Johnson, on behalf of the people, against Westminster. Problem Cummings hadn't game theoried for Lb calling his bluff.
There now mad searching for some kind of deal, as a fig leaf.

c.p.w.g.w

Headshot wrote: »

She's often on that abomination of a tv show on Sky News "Pledge". She often talks alot nonsense and is very hardcore brexit. She tried to come a MP back in 2017 I think, iirc she got embarrassing amount of votes

So how can she be called a "Businesswomen" if she primarily known as panelist and for a failed run for MP

woohoo!!!

Water John wrote: »

It seems very simple, the Johnson play was to have Parliament 'force' him into having an election, because they wouldn't agree to Brexit. This was to be the election of Johnson, on behalf of the people, against Westminster. Problem Cummings hadn't game theoried for Lb calling his bluff.
There now mad searching for some kind of deal, as a fig leaf.

Grieve is the real brains in that parliament and he swatted aside the Cummings ploy with ease.

reslfj

Strazdas wrote: »

The only person that individual should be talking to Michel Barnier. Talking to the Poles about the WA and removing the backstop is rather outrageous (and a waste of time). They (UK) really are a pariah EU state.

And believe me, the Poles knows a thing or two about borders and big less than friendly neighbours.

They don't much like 'uncle Vlad' to the east. They did also noticed that Trump
cancelled his visit to Poland on September 1.

You must negotiate the A50 deal with Michel Barnier.

Only exception is an A50 extension where the Council and Tusk will be directly involved.

Lars

Topgear on Dave

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Whose Michelle Dewberry on Newsnight, seems just listed as a pro-Brexit businesswomen...but can't find out much about her business acumen aside from her winning "The Apprentice"

A sh*t referendum, a sh*t electoral system and relying on reality TV candidates for expertise is really going well for the Brits.

Topgear on Dave

Geoffrey Donaldson being fairly cool on questiontime here.

"I cherish the peace process" says he. Must not be the Geoffrey I remember back during the GFA negotiations.

Smooth, I think he's even softening his accent for his trip to the "mainland".


*Micheal Bolton is also in the audience tonight:pac:

J Mysterio

If I'm not wrong, Donaldson has been positioned as the next DUP leader.

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1172031968852287489

Kermit.de.frog

Arlene Foster denying the Times story

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1172279119968657413

Therefore it is true

Capt'n Midnight

Lots of calls for an election on QT.

But no one stating the bleedin' obvious,
that this minority govt would use every trick in the book to delay it so that there's a Hard Brexit by default.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Arlene Foster denying the Times story

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1172279119968657413

Therefore it is true

Doesn't really count when they're in a permenant state of denial though does it, problem with Arlene is she and her party keep hiding with the heads under the sand trying not to acknowledge that more than half the province doesnt exist or that half the province doesnt agree with her or her party and their shenanigans with Brexit is actually accelerating and undermining their own position as they forced the dormant issue of reunification active again.

Reunification could be possible in as little as 5 years if there's a crash out Brexit and the stupidity of it all is they'll have helped bring about by being daft ignorant gobshítes and pursuing the most damaging and pig ignorant plan out of all of them available. They'll reap what they sow and have noone to blame but themselves.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Lots of calls for an election on QT.

But no one stating the bleedin' obvious,
that this minority govt would use every trick in the book to delay it so that there's a Hard Brexit by default.

Let's be honest Boris scored a massive own goal with his behaviour it's all backfiring on him because by suspending parliment to stifle debate and oversight he's essentially driven all his opponents into one camp including former members of his own party. Additionally he's caused the opposition to cop on and see them for the corrupt fools that they are and given them enough motivation to start making serious coordinated attempts to shut this fiasco down. I actually in a way hope he keeps being a daft eejit because he could ultimately motivate the opposition into ultimately cancelling Brexit and withdraw A50 simply by pissing them all off enough to trip the nuclear option and start serious investigations into the rot surrounding this. It would also be a hillarious case of poetic irony that the man who helped push this scam across the line is ultimately brought low by the same scam and driven out in disgrace.

Headshot

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Lots of calls for an election on QT.

But no one stating the bleedin' obvious,
that this minority govt would use every trick in the book to delay it so that there's a Hard Brexit by default.

yap damn straight

That bald headed guy in the audience was close to bursting a vein.

The funny thing is the election will make no difference, it will just end up 50/50 again in Parliament

Akrasia

Here’s a nice video summarizing the yellowhammer report for anyone interested

https://youtu.be/h9JQTIm6kSg

Nothing new in it, but I handy little summary of how screwed the UK is according to their own base estimates.

ballsymchugh

I have to say, the way Steve Baker is now only referred to as 'brexit hard man steve baker' is hilarious. Is that all down to James O'Brien??

also, just watching the brexitcast podcast on tv. is it always this bad??? it's like a few students talking nonsense in between brief snippets of brexit.

reslfj

J Mysterio wrote: »

"I spoke to (Brexit Secretary) Steve Barclay and he said to me... 'two-thirds of the medicines Ireland gets come through UK.

If there are shortages in the UK, there'll be shortages in Ireland'."

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1172031968852287489

This is just not likely. Steve Barclay should think before he talks.

Some facts:

UK (incl NI) population i 14 times larger that Ireland's. Medicine use in Ireland apx 1/14 of UK use - 14 times less lorries.
Ireland is an EU27 member and all paperwork and certification requirement for medicine from EU26 will continue unchanged.
Much increased ro-ro ferry capacity Ireland to fr, be, nl (and es).

The UK is producing some medicines. These will unlikely be in short supply not in the UK nor in Ireland. UK produced medicines will medium term need new certification for sale in EU27 e.g Ireland, but very far from a Brexit day 1 problem.

Medicine from EU26 can easily be transported on lorries by ferry from fr, be or nl. No new certificates needed and using standard friction free SM procedures.

Special 'medicine' like radioactive isotopes (active life 5-7 days) can easily be flown in as Ireland is in EU/EURATOM. Likely the ferry will be fast enough too.

Lars

Cookie_Monster

reslfj wrote: »

Special 'medicine' like radioactive isotopes (active life 5-7 days) can easily be flown in as Ireland is in EU/EURATOM. Likely the ferry will be fast enough too.

Lars

Aren't they already produced here by Blackrock clinic?

Peregrinus

reslfj wrote: »

This is just not likely. Steve Barclay should think before he talks.

Some facts:

UK (incl NI) population i 14 times larger that Ireland's. Medicine use in Ireland apx 1/14 of UK use - 14 times less lorries.
Ireland is an EU27 member and all paperwork and certification requirement for medicine from EU26 will continue unchanged.
Much increased ro-ro ferry capacity Ireland to fr, be, nl (and es).

The UK is producing some medicines. These will unlikely be in short supply not in the UK nor in Ireland. UK produced medicines will medium term need new certification for sale in EU27 e.g Ireland, but very far from a Brexit day 1 problem.

Medicine from EU26 can easily be transported on lorries by ferry from fr, be or nl. No new certificates needed and using standard friction free SM procedures.

Special 'medicine' like radioactive isotopes (active life 5-7 days) can easily be flown in as Ireland is in EU/EURATOM. Likely the ferry will be fast enough too.

Lars

I suspect the position is that a lot of medicines are distributed into Ireland from wholesalers in the UK, or they are imported via the landbridge, and imports may therefore be disrupted if there is, e.g. serious port congestion in the UK.

To the extent that this is true, these would be transitional problems for Ireland. Supply chains and import routes can be restructured so that the UK is not involved. There would only be a problem for pharmaceuticals manufactured in the UK, and not available from other sources, and I doubt that there are very many of those. (And, for those, this is a problem for the whole of the EU, not just for Ireland.)

reslfj

Peregrinus wrote: »

I suspect the position is that a lot of medicines are distributed into Ireland from wholesalers in the UK, or they are imported via the landbridge, and imports may therefore be disrupted if there is, e.g. serious port congestion in the UK.

To the extent that this is true, these would be transitional problems for Ireland. Supply chains and import routes can be restructured so that the UK is not involved. There would only be a problem for pharmaceuticals manufactured in the UK, and not available from other sources, and I doubt that there are very many of those. (And, for those, this is a problem for the whole of the EU, not just for Ireland.)

In case of a 'No Deal' Brexit EU26 products should not be imported into the UK and reexported to Ireland. If there is no deal - there isn't any deal and medicine from the UK will not be allowed into the EU27 before it is re-certified.

Pharmaceutical companies can - I guess - seek EMA approval for their UK made products by applying from an EU27 country.
But I guess distribution from Irish warehouse(s) will reduce paperwork and might even be necessary until the WA text has been ratified by the UK.

To supply these Irish warehouse(s) the land bridge and TIR marked lorries or one of the new ro-ro ferries look like the best solution.

Existing UK produced and already EU/EMA approved medicine will likely get unilateral permission to be sold in Ireland for a period after Brexit *

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Aren't they already produced here by Blackrock clinic?

Don't know about the practical situation in Ireland and there are more isotopes use in medicine.
One isotope often used is Technetium-99m Tc(99m) with a half-life of just ~6 hours.

Molybdenum-99 with a half-life of 66 hours is distributed and it decays into Tc(99m) that can be collected and immediately used for its medical purpose The Mo(99) can produce Tc(99m) for about a week.
The distribution of radioactive material is related to the rules are governed by EURATOM and UK EURATOM membership ceases with A50.

Ireland should have no problems.

Lars

* Have not checked for newest EU unilateral regulations.

murphaph

listermint wrote: »

4 out of every 10 accounts are fabricated. I've gone and searched various accounts the odd time pulling their supposedly legitimate images of them with the dog or whatever.john the pilot from kent etc etc to find the images are stolen from a plenty of fish account from ten years ago. It's rampant.

I don't see how making sure people have one account and the account is listed to a mobile number from country of claimed origin kills the platform. It doesn't. People can still keep their anonymous names if it comes to that but you shouldn't be able to register multiples nor claim to be from a country and be a voter and be from a different continent.

The platform is a cesspit. Even for blue ticked celebrities or whatever they just get abused by anybody and everybody.

Doing some simple changes doesn't kill the platform I think it safeguards it and makes it stronger

They could go a step between and mark tweets as being from a possible bot. To have your account verified if the AI incorrectly assigned you bot status you would then need to validate using an SMS or similar. It would mean most normal real people having to take no action.

First Up

reslfj wrote:

To supply these Irish warehouse(s) the land bridge and TIR marked lorries or one of the new ro-ro ferries look like the best solution.

Low Volume/High value items like pharmaceuticals can use air freight.

Dyr

murphaph wrote: »

They could go a step between and mark tweets as being from a possible bot. To have your account verified if the AI incorrectly assigned you bot status you would then need to validate using an SMS or similar. It would mean most normal real people having to take no action.

Just makes bots more expensive will not stop them

L1011

And we've plenty of air freight capacity on European short haul routes due to Aer Lingus still doing belly cargo.

Enzokk

So with the talk of a NI only backstop, I am sure we would be happy with that as we get the transition period and a new government comes in. I still fail to see how Johnson wins a majority as he has to run on the Tory record of the past 9 years and there has been polls out that Leave Labour voters will not vote Conservative.

So with Brexit out of the way he doesn't pick up seats in the Labour heartlands, he doesn't have the Brexit Party taking votes from Labour in those seats to try and steal a seat, he will lose seats in Scotland and he will lose seats to the Lib Dems who will run on a soft Brexit at the very least or revoke.

This also ignores the fact that he pledged the divorce bill will not be as negotiated because they will get a new deal, he said he didn't want an election and now wants one and he basically misled the Queen to prorogue parliament. I still see so many circles that needs to be squared that unless the people falls for the lies I cannot see him in office after an election.

murphaph

reslfj wrote: »

This is just not likely. Steve Barclay should think before he talks.

Some facts:

UK (incl NI) population i 14 times larger that Ireland's. Medicine use in Ireland apx 1/14 of UK use - 14 times less lorries.
Ireland is an EU27 member and all paperwork and certification requirement for medicine from EU26 will continue unchanged.
Much increased ro-ro ferry capacity Ireland to fr, be, nl (and es).

The UK is producing some medicines. These will unlikely be in short supply not in the UK nor in Ireland. UK produced medicines will medium term need new certification for sale in EU27 e.g Ireland, but very far from a Brexit day 1 problem.

Medicine from EU26 can easily be transported on lorries by ferry from fr, be or nl. No new certificates needed and using standard friction free SM procedures.

Special 'medicine' like radioactive isotopes (active life 5-7 days) can easily be flown in as Ireland is in EU/EURATOM. Likely the ferry will be fast enough too.

Lars

If the sh!t really hits the fan I am pretty sure we can count on the support of the various air forces around the EU to fly in anything in urgent short supply (possibly due to weather induced ferry problems) like said medicinal radioactive isotopes. We will NOT be alone in this.

prawnsambo

murphaph wrote: »

They could go a step between and mark tweets as being from a possible bot. To have your account verified if the AI incorrectly assigned you bot status you would then need to validate using an SMS or similar. It would mean most normal real people having to take no action.

A simpler system would be to only allow verified accounts comment on or tag other users. Unverified accounts can tweet away to their heart's content and follow and like posts from other users (retweet without comment too I suppose), but that's it until they're verified.

circadian

murphaph wrote: »

If the sh!t really hits the fan I am pretty sure we can count on the support of the various air forces around the EU to fly in anything in urgent short supply (possibly due to weather induced ferry problems) like said medicinal radioactive isotopes. We will NOT be alone in this.

I agree. With a hard exit we'll see disruption but we'll also see the cooperation of a large trading block to mitigate these challenges.

This in itself highlights how insane a hard exit is. The UK will be willingly throwing itself into turmoil and hardship while cutting off its safety net at the same time. While its neighbours who are also affected can rely and support each other.