Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog

BJ off to Luxembourg on Monday for talks with Juncker.

Is there movement finally happening? Despite DUP denials the media is saying the Times story is true and they are shifting.

Perhaps this is just a case now of how the DUP sell it?

NI only backstop but not called a backstop.

An Ciarraioch

trellheim wrote: »

Points to note

Dates and Timelines
UK Supreme Court hears appeal on Prorogue - 17 Sep
Conservative Party Conference Manchester 29 Sep - 2 Oct
Prorogue Ends / Queen's speech 14 october
Brexit EUCO 17 October
Current Brexit Date 31 October

If Prorogue appeal in the supreme finds with the Scottish judgment I assume all bets are off and scalps will be needed , otherwise stuff proceeds as per above.

Widely viewed no deal detail till after conference .... assuming so barnier and frost go into the smokefilled room 3rd Oct

Queens speech is a Monday .

EUCO will need a deal in front of them they can go for to have any hope as existing WA has everyone in PTSD , so a likely vote in advanced needed ...15 or 16 October otherwise its no deal and the Benn bill kicks in and we are back to needing scalps


tell me I am wrong but 2 oct -14 oct looks like the hardcore stuff

Yes, even without the prorogation, nothing happens politically in the UK until the conference season ends.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BJ off to Luxembourg on Monday for talks with Juncker.

Is there movement finally happening? Despite DUP denials the media is saying the Times story is true and they are shifting.

Perhaps this is just a case now of how the DUP sell it?

NI only backstop but not called a backstop.

Earlier in the week, it was being dubbed the "all-island regulatory area", so that'll be the sales pitch.

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

Points to note

Dates and Timelines
UK Supreme Court hears appeal on Prorogue - 17 Sep
Conservative Party Conference Manchester 29 Sep - 2 Oct
Prorogue Ends / Queen's speech 14 october
Brexit EUCO 17 October
Current Brexit Date 31 October

If Prorogue appeal in the supreme finds with the Scottish judgment I assume all bets are off and scalps will be needed , otherwise stuff proceeds as per above.

Widely viewed no deal detail till after conference .... assuming so barnier and frost go into the smokefilled room 3rd Oct

Queens speech is a Monday .

EUCO will need a deal in front of them they can go for to have any hope as existing WA has everyone in PTSD , so a likely vote in advanced needed ...15 or 16 October otherwise its no deal and the Benn bill kicks in and we are back to needing scalps


tell me I am wrong but 2 oct -14 oct looks like the hardcore stuff

The Tory conference will be all bluster and no action (remember they kicked out the people who dared to disagree) and more of May's Blue, White and Red brexit etc. and nothing coming out of note.

UK Supreme court is likely to kick out the appeal due to not having jurisdiction; once again anything else and we'll see the "Traitors" headlines for weeks but I could just as well see Boris ignoring the decision they make.

Queen's speech is likely to be a limp noodle without any substance once again; will of the people, we're leaving bla bla bla.

The only real date when things will happen will be directly after the EU meeting and that's based on the assumption Boris whips out the old deal with some word changes to bring home (NI only backstop). Go to parliament on "Well I managed to get you a deal but we're leaving one way or the other 31st October so take it or leave it" followed by trying to get an election going in some form asap. Worth noting is he may try to pull his version with blanked out backstop to EU as well and then complain about them not accepting his generous deal; with Boris you never know between incompetence and bravado.

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

I could just as well see Boris ignoring the decision they make.

If the SC supports the Scottish court, Parliament is open again next morning.

ToBeFrank123

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Joke will be on them once they realize that we manufacture most of the worlds Viagra (Cork) and Botox (Westport). They'll sign up for the backstop approximately three seconds after that revelation (maybe someone should highlight it on the side of a bus.

Indeed if the "older vote" knew that in 2016, the referendum result might have been very different.

Enzokk

joe40 wrote: »

It is amazing the UK don't have a constitution and that is why imho the referendum was such a farce to begin with.

In our last referendums, eg Marriage equality, Abortion, we were not voting directly on the issue, we were simply voting to amend the constitution.

The Government then governs within the constraints of the constitution.

The Brexit referendum was a mess, with no clearly defined legal outcome, therfore open to all sorts of political interpretation.

Our referendums amend a legal document, our constitution, in a very specific unambiguous way.

The Brexit referendum was a prime example of how referendums can go wrong.

I think the UK has a constitution but its not written down. This has its advantages and disadvantages and in areas where you shore up the loose ends it means that in others you are constrained by the written constitution whereas now there is scope for interpretation. Either way, written down or not if you have someone determined to undermine it like Trump then it will happen.

As for the conferences coming up, I see only traps for the Tories. We know what deal they can get, so it will be interesting to see what message they send out during their conference. If Johnson repeats his pledges of the divorce bill and customs union and protecting the union and no backstop, but then comes back with all those things, what damage will that do to him?

On the Supreme Court decision, surely the worst result for Johnson is that they find that he did mislead the Queen as there is no evidence provided that this is the reason for prorogation, but that they have no recourse for action against the government. That will mean he lied and they find that against him but cannot do anything about it. He will then be found by the highest court to have lied to the Queen. One can only hope this is one of their findings.

woohoo!!!

Enzokk wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

It is amazing the UK don't have a constitution and that is why imho the referendum was such a farce to begin with.

In our last referendums, eg Marriage equality, Abortion, we were not voting directly on the issue, we were simply voting to amend the constitution.

The Government then governs within the constraints of the constitution.

The Brexit referendum was a mess, with no clearly defined legal outcome, therfore open to all sorts of political interpretation.

Our referendums amend a legal document, our constitution, in a very specific unambiguous way.

The Brexit referendum was a prime example of how referendums can go wrong.

I think the UK has a constitution but its not written down. This has its advantages and disadvantages and in areas where you shore up the loose ends it means that in others you are constrained by the written constitution whereas now there is scope for interpretation. Either way, written down or not if you have someone determined to undermine it like Trump then it will happen.

As for the conferences coming up, I see only traps for the Tories. We know what deal they can get, so it will be interesting to see what message they send out during their conference. If Johnson repeats his pledges of the divorce bill and customs union and protecting the union and no backstop, but then comes back with all those things, what damage will that do to him?

On the Supreme Court decision, surely the worst result for Johnson is that they find that he did mislead the Queen as there is no evidence provided that this is the reason for prorogation, but that they have no recourse for action against the government. That will mean he lied and they find that against him but cannot do anything about it. He will then be found by the highest court to have lied to the Queen. One can only hope this is one of their findings.

I believe I read somewhere that the Supreme Court only came into existence in 2009. Can you imagine the legal mess if it wasn't in existence now.

An Ciarraioch

Gah, UK still talking about "all-island SPS solution", so still at cross-purposes:

https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1172508644405067781

prawnsambo

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I believe I read somewhere that the Supreme Court only came into existence in 2009. Can you imagine the legal mess if it wasn't in existence now.

It was dealt with by the Law Lords before then. In effect, they just moved from the House of Lords to the Supreme Court and lost their voting rights in the HoL. Only two of those original judges remain today. The other ten were appointed as vacancies arose by a selection commission. It's not a Supreme Court like ours, since it cannot overturn primary legislation. Mainly because there is no constitution to measure such legislation against.

BorneTobyWilde

Arlene Foster offers Prime Minister BJ




a lifeline to help him unlock a Brexit deal

prawnsambo

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Arlene Foster offers Prime Minister BJ

a lifeline to help him unlock a Brexit deal

Not seeing anything like that in the article you linked. Can you be more specific?

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BJ off to Luxembourg on Monday for talks with Juncker.

Is there movement finally happening? Despite DUP denials the media is saying the Times story is true and they are shifting.

Perhaps this is just a case now of how the DUP sell it?

NI only backstop but not called a backstop.

Sell it to who? Themselves? Their constituents voted to remain in the EU so I don’t see how they wouldn’t be in favor of regulatory alignment to prevent a hard border.

lawred2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Arlene Foster offers Prime Minister BJ




a lifeline to help him unlock a Brexit deal

maybe it's because it's late on a Friday and I'm already in the process of checking out for the day but the headline and content don't match..

also breakingnews.ie :rolleyes:

Headshot

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not seeing anything like that in the article you linked. Can you be more specific?

Typically when DUP deny, it means they have

They are as trust worthy as BJ

joe40

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Arlene Foster offers Prime Minister BJ




a lifeline to help him unlock a Brexit deal

Unfortunate wording.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, there's still the EUlephant in the room!

To a large extent, the Johnson-Cummings coup has (again) backfired spectacularly: the EU has seen that all of Boris' efforts are directed towards a no-deal, but that the majority of MPs want something else. The anti-prorogation movment coupled with recent polling means that the EU now knows that there's a possibility of having a grown-up conversation with a different negotiating team in the very near future, and recent statements (and leaks) from EU spokespersons serve to remind the incoming government at to what's potentially re-negotiable and what's absolutely not up for discussion.

While Johnson is backed into the corner of his own making, and is obliged to reinforce his "do or die [in a ditch]" position in order to keep the Brexit Party at bay, Corbyn has the luxury of being able to sit down with the LibDems and the SNP and quietly figure out a compromise position between themselves that is likely to be acceptable to the EU. Once they have agreed a reasonable plan of action, they can plead for an extension on the grounds of being the Britain's common-sense coalition and a promise to behave sensibly when they get into power ... if the EU would just give them enough time to have that election.

Good points. If the deadline was extended to facilitate an election it could fix the problem.

Getting the DUP out of a position of power will literally allow it. Brexit is an English wish, and they will get it if Northern Ireland is not involved.

McMurphy

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Arlene Foster offers Prime Minister BJ




a lifeline to help him unlock a Brexit deal

That's a headline that conjures up a specific image I never want to imagine again.

BorneTobyWilde

joe40 wrote: »

Unfortunate wording.

Anything to get a deal over the line.

BorneTobyWilde

DUP fear the truth, have to deny everything. Weird way to conduct business. May's deal would be done long ago but for them

Leroy42

I listened to Brexitcast today (uploaded yesterday) and my god it is so annoying. The UK are facing into a constitutional crisis, with a prorogation of parliament, possible lying to the queen, current minority government and just recently the release of Yellowhammer docs that prove that at best Gove was being deliberately disingenuous about the report and probably outright lying to the public.

But rather than spend time on that, Laura jumps in with "There are whispers, whispers of a deal". No evidence, no basis for it, but rather than talk about what has actually happened better to simply ignore all that and talk about stuff that might happen. And of course no mention of the fact than Johnson said only a few weeks ago that there would be no talks without the backstop being removed entirely which obviously isn't the case.

Katya attempts so say what the EU position is, but always rows back. I would love someone like Peter Foster of the Telegraph to appear and lay into them like he did with the recent Choppers Brexit Podcast. Show them the fantasy of what they are passing off as news.

Rant over.

Enzokk

The election machinery is up and running from Cummings. I think Johnson is a liability out campaigning and the lies he has told could work out against him, but something like this will be very effective, especially if the BBC does nothing because they are scared of Corbyn. We have already seen what Kuenssberg thinks about Corbyn to the point she was willing to misleadingly cut a video of him to portray him in a negative light, I don't think the top of BBC News will be doing much to stop this sort of thing.

https://twitter.com/seanjcoughlan/status/1172520557079945218?s=20

That is a misleading advert on Facebook that uses the BBC story and changes the headline. The figure they got from the story was in relation to it being thw wrong figure.

serfboard

Enzokk wrote: »

The election machinery is up and running from Cummings. I think Johnson is a liability out campaigning and the lies he has told could work out against him, but something like this will be very effective

Do the Tories really expect people to believe that the party of austerity is now the party of generosity?

CelticRambler

serfboard wrote: »

Do the Tories really expect people to believe that the party of austerity is now the party of generosity?

Alas, "the people" have demonstrated conclusively that they're prepared to believe any old nonsense as long as it shows up on Facebook or Twitter, and they don't have to think about it.

For Forks Sake

CelticRambler wrote: »

Alas, "the people" have demonstrated conclusively that they're prepared to believe any old nonsense as long as it shows up on Facebook or Twitter, and they don't have to think about it.

Or if it's being orated in a plummy accent....

Spanish Eyes

I am getting the feeling that Hard Brexiteers are going a little more silent now.

Am I raving or what. Just wondered. All the usual media outlets that I have listened to for a while have moved on now. Probably waiting for the Supreme Court ruling on Tuesday. Dunno.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I am getting the feeling that Hard Brexiteers are going a little more silent now.

Am I raving or what. Just wondered. All the usual media outlets that I have listened to for a while have moved on now. Probably waiting for the Supreme Court ruling on Tuesday. Dunno.

Things are a tad awkward. The right wing press were acting as cheerleaders for prorogation.....something that could turn out to be illegal and meant lying to the Queen.

An Ciarraioch

If any of the thread regulars are based in Louth, Prosperity UK AKA the Alternative Arrangements Commission AKA the Legatum Institute are visiting Dundalk tomorrow, which should be amusing, based on this thread:

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1172553263956316165

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

I listened to Brexitcast today (uploaded yesterday) and my god it is so annoying. The UK are facing into a constitutional crisis, with a prorogation of parliament, possible lying to the queen, current minority government and just recently the release of Yellowhammer docs that prove that at best Gove was being deliberately disingenuous about the report and probably outright lying to the public.

But rather than spend time on that, Laura jumps in with "There are whispers, whispers of a deal". No evidence, no basis for it, but rather than talk about what has actually happened better to simply ignore all that and talk about stuff that might happen. And of course no mention of the fact than Johnson said only a few weeks ago that there would be no talks without the backstop being removed entirely which obviously isn't the case.

Katya attempts so say what the EU position is, but always rows back. I would love someone like Peter Foster of the Telegraph to appear and lay into them like he did with the recent Choppers Brexit Podcast. Show them the fantasy of what they are passing off as news.

Rant over.

Why are you listening to their childish tittle tattle? It's never any different.

Neither of them have any inside track beyond relaying what's on Twitter.

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

Things are a tad awkward. The right wing press were acting as cheerleaders for prorogation.....something that could turn out to be illegal and meant lying to the Queen.

Interesting, isn't it? Hadn't thought of that really. Too much going on I think.

Wonder what the Supreme Court in London might decree on Tuesday?

Interesting times ahead.