Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

firemansam4 wrote: »

I've said this before on this thread, but there is a lot of miss placed optomism that if another referendum was held it would solve this whole Brexit mess.

In my opinion it would probably return a higher leave majority than before.

I'm sorry but what is that based on exactly? I've been following the tracking polls for various post Brexit referenda and the point you make might have been true for the first year or so. However, since then the numbers of people who think A: the vote to leave the EU was the wrong decision and B: who would vote to remain in a hypothetical second referendum, have only been increasing.

I think firemansam4's warning about misplaced optimism is valid. While there are many polls that suggest that if the same referendum were to be run again, the results would favour Remain, the conditions have changed completely. Now it's not just an electorate getting high on the chance of casting protest vote, but a deeply fragmented society being subject to more and more indoctrination every week.

You've got "Brexit fatique" sufferers, you've got the "undemocratic backstop" people, you've got "oh, let's just get it over with" folks, you've got the Blitz spirit/stick-it-to-the-Germans crowd, you've got the Remainers who have decided to vote Leave because they've been persuaded that the EU is trapping the UK, you've got the Scots, you've got the DUP, you've got the Lib Dems ...

All-in-all, you've got one hell of a mess and that's before you even get around to figuring out how many questions to put on a referendum ballot.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

I think firemansam4's warning about misplaced optimism is valid. While there are many polls that suggest that if the same referendum were to be run again, the results would favour Remain, the conditions have changed completely. Now it's not just an electorate getting high on the chance of casting protest vote, but a deeply fragmented society being subject to more and more indoctrination every week.

You've got "Brexit fatique" sufferers, you've got the "undemocratic backstop" people, you've got "oh, let's just get it over with" folks, you've got the Blitz spirit/stick-it-to-the-Germans crowd, you've got the Remainers who have decided to vote Leave because they've been persuaded that the EU is trapping the UK, you've got the Scots, you've got the DUP, you've got the Lib Dems ...

All-in-all, you've got one hell of a mess and that's before you even get around to figuring out how many questions to put on a referendum ballot.

And add to that the undemocratic nature of the FPTP electoral system that can return a majority Gov on a 35% popular vote. [Margaret Thatcher never got more than 42% of the vote in any of the elections that she won].

The best result would be to Revoke Art 50 and rerun the referendum in 12 months time when they can put a clear choice to the electorate.

Now that is not going to happen for obvious reasons - there is no majority for it.

briany

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I think it is a fair position for them to say theyre against Brexit therefore vote against ang kind of Brexit. Theyve been consistent on this and they are a small party so their MP votes dont make too mu h of a difference.

However, the whole Uk political esrablishment can be blamed for playing party politics at a time when some kind of national consensus should be sought. If only there was some way that they could politicially get together and try to agree a position that works for most of them

If the LDs are against any kind of Brexit, they could find themselves on the end of the worst Brexit, because political inertia and division are probably the greatest allies of no-deal advocates.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

The best result would be to Revoke Art 50 and rerun the referendum in 12 months time when they can put a clear choice to the electorate.

Now that is not going to happen for obvious reasons - there is no majority for it.

I was thinking about this, trying to see things from an EU point of view and wondering how anyone's going to be able to convince Macron that an extension would achieve anything when the polls and public pronouncements by all parties essentially confirm the current stalemate

I wonder if there's a possibility that the Political Declaration could include a provision that if, within the transition period, there is a measurable shift in public opinion within the UK (to be demonstrated either by a referendum or an election) they could be re-admitted to the EU under the same T&Cs as at present.

That would allow Johnson & Co. to declare that Britain had left the EU; it would take the fence out from under Corbyn; it might reassure the Lib Dems that the fight was not lost; it would effectively make the NI backstop the starting point for the future FTA. We wouldn't have to listen anymore to Brexiters talking about the EU blinking at the last minute, and Farage & Co. would yield their seats to the zombie MEPs.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

I was thinking about this, trying to see things from an EU point of view and wondering how anyone's going to be able to convince Macron that an extension would achieve anything when the polls and public pronouncements by all parties essentially confirm the current stalemate

I wonder if there's a possibility that the Political Declaration could include a provision that if, within the transition period, there is a measurable shift in public opinion within the UK (to be demonstrated either by a referendum or an election) they could be re-admitted to the EU under the same T&Cs as at present.

That would allow Johnson & Co. to declare that Britain had left the EU; it would take the fence out from under Corbyn; it might reassure the Lib Dems that the fight was not lost; it would effectively make the NI backstop the starting point for the future FTA. We wouldn't have to listen anymore to Brexiters talking about the EU blinking at the last minute, and Farage & Co. would yield their seats to the zombie MEPs.

I like that idea if it was a legal possibility for the EU to offer it.

Robert McGrath

Sam Russell wrote: »

I like that idea if it was a legal possibility for the EU to offer it.

Dangerous precedent for the future, though, and could undermine the cohesion of the EU.

“If you want out, you can have a trial run for a few years and if it doesn’t work out, we’ll let you back in on the same terms. If it does work out, well done and good luck”

It’s potentially providing a risk-free bet for those promoting an Italexit or a Frexit

Irish Praetorian

CelticRambler wrote: »

I think firemansam4's warning about misplaced optimism is valid. While there are many polls that suggest that if the same referendum were to be run again, the results would favour Remain, the conditions have changed completely. Now it's not just an electorate getting high on the chance of casting protest vote, but a deeply fragmented society being subject to more and more indoctrination every week.

You've got "Brexit fatique" sufferers, you've got the "undemocratic backstop" people, you've got "oh, let's just get it over with" folks, you've got the Blitz spirit/stick-it-to-the-Germans crowd, you've got the Remainers who have decided to vote Leave because they've been persuaded that the EU is trapping the UK, you've got the Scots, you've got the DUP, you've got the Lib Dems ...

All-in-all, you've got one hell of a mess and that's before you even get around to figuring out how many questions to put on a referendum ballot.

Again, whilst I wouldn't rule out any of those phenomena playing a role in any subsequent vote, I am compelled to consider first the vast bank of polling data that exists, which is pretty clearly indicative of a modest Remain victory if such a referendum were held again. That is in stark contrast to the story in 2016 when Leave was riding high in the polls for a long period prior to the election.

Now I wouldn't want to suggest that such a poll is a foregone conclusion let alone what the result might be, and certainly if EU referenda in the past have taught us anything, it is the overconfidence of the Remain camp that tends to produce unpleasant results. Yet, I don't think it correct to ignore that fact that there has been a shift away from the centre ground over the past few years and whilst that has in part favoured no deal, it has favoured remain more so.

Robert McGrath

It shows what insane times we live in that the prospect of including “No Deal” as an option in a referendum is even being discussed as a possibility. As David McWilliams is fond of saying, “no deal” actually means “no deal for now”. Even those advocating the no deal option see it as a bargaining chip for getting a better deal (whether that deal is negotiated before or after leaving). We have seen in this country with the 8th Amendment how referendums can tie the hands of a government’s ability to legislate in unintended ways and therefore they should be treated carefully. What is being proposed with a “No Deal” option in a referendum is even worse - it’s proposing that the electorate micromanage the trade agreement negotiation tactics. This is crazy.

Unless the proposal is that no free trade agreement or other agreement is entered into for a certain period of time, as another poster suggested. Which is even more insane. Voting to the the North Korea of Europe

FrancieBrady

CelticRambler wrote: »

I was thinking about this, trying to see things from an EU point of view and wondering how anyone's going to be able to convince Macron that an extension would achieve anything when the polls and public pronouncements by all parties essentially confirm the current stalemate

I wonder if there's a possibility that the Political Declaration could include a provision that if, within the transition period, there is a measurable shift in public opinion within the UK (to be demonstrated either by a referendum or an election) they could be re-admitted to the EU under the same T&Cs as at present.

That would allow Johnson & Co. to declare that Britain had left the EU; it would take the fence out from under Corbyn; it might reassure the Lib Dems that the fight was not lost; it would effectively make the NI backstop the starting point for the future FTA. We wouldn't have to listen anymore to Brexiters talking about the EU blinking at the last minute, and Farage & Co. would yield their seats to the zombie MEPs.

That would be a ridiculous situation imo.

A test drive with no commitments?
The EU just need to hold the line now, we are as ready as we can be for a No Deal, if the EU stays cohesive and together.
And if the UK does prosper, so be it, maybe we are all better off outside the EU and it has passed it's time.

I doubt it, but let's see what happens.

woohoo!!!

We'll be here forever and a day while the Brits dither over a deal with their unicorns wish list and the practicalities of what the EU can give. Sunlit uplands need to be experienced to be believed imo. Cut the cord and implement preparations.

CelticRambler

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Dangerous precedent for the future, though, and could undermine the cohesion of the EU.

...

It’s potentially providing a risk-free bet for those promoting an Italexit or a Frexit

Well, not really: the EU would simply point to the "unique circustances on the Island of Ireland" and reject any idea of precedent. But also it would be an affirmation of the value of EU membership if the people of first country to try to leave forced their government to cancel the exercise before even they'd got to the end of the (short) transition period.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That would be a ridiculous situation imo.

A test drive with no commitments?

There'd be no test-drive about it - other than what's provided for in the already-agreed transition period. The EU could progressively tighten all the screws that are not covered by the WA, and with the UK officially out, every unilateral mitigation measure could be given a very definite expiry date, with unequivocal notification given to all affected businesses/communities.

Imreoir2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, not really: the EU would simply point to the "unique circustances on the Island of Ireland" and reject any idea of precedent.

I'm sure Euroskeptics would accept that and not try to point to a precedent that would help them sell leaving the EU.

Strazdas

Robert McGrath wrote: »

It shows what insane times we live in that the prospect of including “No Deal” as an option in a referendum is even being discussed as a possibility. As David McWilliams is fond of saying, “no deal” actually means “no deal for now”. Even those advocating the no deal option see it as a bargaining chip for getting a better deal (whether that deal is negotiated before or after leaving). We have seen in this country with the 8th Amendment how referendums can tie the hands of a government’s ability to legislate in unintended ways and therefore they should be treated carefully. What is being proposed with a “No Deal” option in a referendum is even worse - it’s proposing that the electorate micromanage the trade agreement negotiation tactics. This is crazy.

Unless the proposal is that no free trade agreement or other agreement is entered into for a certain period of time, as another poster suggested. Which is even more insane. Voting to the the North Korea of Europe

It would also be a most peculiar concept to put on a ballot paper : 'Do you want your country to rip up all its trade deals and treaties and have a hostile falling out with its neighbours?'........who on earth puts that question to an electorate to vote on?

Westernyelp

CelticRambler wrote:

I wonder if there's a possibility that the Political Declaration could include a provision that if, within the transition period, there is a measurable shift in public opinion within the UK (to be demonstrated either by a referendum or an election) they could be re-admitted to the EU under the same T&Cs as at present.

Why should we bend over backwards to facilitate their self inflicted mess being sorted out? While they continue to come up with zero solutions. Non runner IMO.

PropJoe10

It'll be interesting to see what kind of traction the Lib Dems gain with this "Cancel Brexit" policy in the next election, whenever it comes around. They're really putting themselves up as a target but at least they seem to have a concrete message which is more than can be said for Labour.

Joe_ Public

Maybe there's another way of looking at it. If, as has been said, the left-right paradigm in uk politics has been changed by remain-leave, that they have become the polar extremes, then it's surely possible to argue that Labour's position is the true centre one, the position of compromise. This kind of triangulation, seeking the "third way", is just what blairism was built on back in the day, yet it is getting nothing but scorn from many on both sides. I suspect they'll simply be bludgeoned into becoming a committed remain party before conference season is over.

Now, maybe that's a stretch, but i was interested to hear a Tory peer, plugging his new book on Sky news during the week, argue fairly passionately for a new "system of sharing the growth and wealth and capital far more widely to millions and millions of people in a way that doesn't happen at present, with the huge concentration of ownership and profits in a tiny percentage of society". I'd listened to John McDonnell making almost exactly the same argument at the TUC conference a day earlier and getting challenged hard for his views. I'm not even surprised by that sort of stuff anymore, seems just a product of the strange times we live in.

reslfj

CelticRambler wrote: »

I wonder if there's a possibility that the Political Declaration could include a provision that if, within the transition period, there is a measurable shift in public opinion within the UK (to be demonstrated either by a referendum or an election) they could be re-admitted to the EU under the same T&Cs as at present.

The article 50.5 states very clearly

50.5 If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

The transition periods are designed to uphold current trade rules (CU+SM+ FTAs ????) and other EU rules, while the UK can negotiate replacement trade deals with the EU27 (the PD into treaty text) and with other countries.

This can not be done while being an EU member state. Brexit must have happened - and then A49 will apply as explicitly written in A50.

This means QMV is replaced by unanimity = veto right for all EU27 states, and surely all special UK T&Cs will not be accepted by all EU27 members going forward.

• The rebate - possible after a short phase out period.
• Likely some opt-outs will get an 'until clause' too

But

• Schengen membership may not be required if Ireland will accept continued use of the CTA (putting the CTA into law/ UK-RoI treaty may be required)
• The Euro rules require the UK to be within the debt/deficit limits (60%, max 3%). This cannot happen anytime soon.
  There is already a large 'repair job' for the UK economy even after an A50 revoke, and a much larger one after a 'No Deal' or indeed after any Brexit day.
• With the current Trump/Boris/Putin induced instability into NATO and the EU, I can easily imagine the UK will have to accept joining an additional European military command structure (EU+some non EU countries).
  This will also allow some of the EU member states not in NATO e.g FI, SE, IE to participate more openly in European defence.

Lars

PS!
Re. rejoin and A49 - Don't underestimate the EU's ability to find an easier solution if all 27 agree and they really want a fast path back to membership for the UK.
But the UK can do nothing but hope and pray.

CelticRambler

Westernyelp wrote: »

Why should we bend over backwards to facilitate their self inflicted mess being sorted out? While they continue to come up with zero solutions. Non runner IMO.

Because (a) it's not bending over backwards - just inserting a paragraph into the (non-binding :rolleyes: ) Policital Declaration; and (b) because it's in the EU's interest to get the WA passed so that (i) everything stays the same on the Island of Ireland; and (ii) the UK - and her MEPs - are formally out of the EU, have no further say in our rule-making, but we continue to enjoy the benefits of their pseudo-membership until the end of the Transition Period.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If, as has been said, the left-right paradigm in uk politics has been changed by remain-leave, that they have become the polar extremes, then it's surely possible to argue that Labour's position is the true centre one, the position of compromise. This kind of triangulation, seeking the "third way", is just what blairism was built on back in the day, yet it is getting nothing but scorn from many on both sides.

The concept is fine, but it is very hard for an Old Establishment party to reinvent/reposition itself in that way. Blairism only worked because GB was still effectively working under the two-party system. With the rise of the SNP and the Lib Dems, and grumbling ulcer of the Brexit Party niggling away, the UK really needs a totally new movement (à la Macron) Alas, very recent history has shown that neither the politicians nor the electorate are prepared to consider thinking outside of a them-n-us box.

jimmycrackcorm

PropJoe10 wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see what kind of traction the Lib Dems gain with this "Cancel Brexit" policy in the next election, whenever it comes around. They're really putting themselves up as a target but at least they seem to have a concrete message which is more than can be said for Labour.

I think it's too late for the cancel brexit / remain option. It's too far gone down the path to the point that they're is a clamour for a no deal exit, regardless of how stood an idea that is.

But maybe, a campaign to revoke A50, but then properly debate what the way forward is.
E.g. if immigration is an issue then address that

MrMusician18

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Would that not just end up enraging the part of the country that (rightly or wrongly, and to be fair probably wrongly) sees No-Deal as what they want? I mean don't get me wrong they would want to qualify 'No Deal' as something more substantial than just a name, maybe no agreements with the EU for 10 years or something, but I'm not sure there can be much progress without that option at least on the table.

It's crazy that no deal wasn't even in the lexicon three years ago, yet some people are adamant that what they wanted all along.

Although with the amount of experts we not have in the rules of international trade and EU law we now have online, one wonders why we need professionals in these fields at all now.

MrMusician18

reslfj wrote: »

The article 50.5 states very clearly


The transition periods are designed to uphold current trade rules (CU+SM+ FTAs ????) and other EU rules, while the UK can negotiate replacement trade deals with the EU27 (the PD into treaty text) and with other countries.

This can not be done while being an EU member state. Brexit must have happened - and then A49 will apply as explicitly written in A50.

This means QMV is replaced by unanimity = veto right for all EU27 states, and surely all special UK T&Cs will not be accepted by all EU27 members going forward.

• The rebate - possible after a short phase out period.
• Likely some opt-outs will get an 'until clause' too

But

• Schengen membership may not be required if Ireland will accept continued use of the CTA (putting the CTA into law/ UK-RoI treaty may be required)
• The Euro rules require the UK to be within the debt/deficit limits (60%, max 3%). This cannot happen anytime soon.
  There is already a large 'repair job' for the UK economy even after an A50 revoke, and a much larger one after a 'No Deal' or indeed after any Brexit day.
• With the current Trump/Boris/Putin induced instability into NATO and the EU, I can easily imagine the UK will have to accept joining an additional European military command structure (EU+some non EU countries).
  This will also allow some of the EU member states not in NATO e.g FI, SE, IE to participate more openly in European defence.

Lars

PS!
Re. rejoin and A49 - Don't underestimate the EU's ability to find an easier solution if all 27 agree and they really want a fast path back to membership for the UK.
But the UK can do nothing but hope and pray.

If the UK gets readmitted it won't get the rebate back, it might be able to win a derogation on the Euro (although it adopting the Euro would be a way of firmly stopping this crisis from happening again) and would almost certainly be allowed to opt out of Schengen as it is really of little benefit for an island state.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If the UK gets readmitted it won't get the rebate back, it might be able to win a derogation on the Euro (although it adopting the Euro would be a way of firmly stopping this crisis from happening again) and would almost certainly be allowed to opt out of Schengen as it is really of little benefit for an island state.

I cannot see the UK getting back in quickly. It is way too toxic and politically unstable a state at the moment. We're probably talking 15-20 years and a time when the current far right have departed the scene and the British media has stopped its campaign of hatred against the EU (if those things don't happen, they will probably never rejoin).

Joe_ Public

CelticRambler wrote: »

The concept is fine, but it is very hard for an Old Establishment party to reinvent/reposition itself in that way. Blairism only worked because GB was still effectively working under the two-party system. With the rise of the SNP and the Lib Dems, and grumbling ulcer of the Brexit Party niggling away, the UK really needs a totally new movement (à la Macron) Alas, very recent history has shown that neither the politicians nor the electorate are prepared to consider thinking outside of a them-n-us box.

I wasn't actually suggesting Labour was actively trying to reinvent itself in any way at all. A lot of what is happening with the parties right now is almost accidental i would suggest, they are pushing themselves or being pushed in ways they couldn't have foreseen even a few months ago. I am fairly certain of one thing in all this, that when objective history of these times is written, analysts will wonder what on earth the tories were thinking in abandoning all that ripe centre ground, it's simply insane. Macron managed one clever trick in appealing equally to both left and right, but new movements - tending to be populist by nature - generally struggle to pull that off and usually dont even try. I guess if and when corbynism bites the dust, you could get something new forming around the left, but i suspect all that'll happen is party will lurch back towards the soft left/centre and try and purge themselves of all that hard leftist baggage. As you were, in other words.

Enzokk

On the polls, this tweet seems to explain why you are seeing such difference between predictions from basically the same data for the polling companies.

https://twitter.com/harrydcarr/status/1173145606484873217?s=20

So on the assumption that the youth vote is more energised the result is neck and neck between Labour and the Tories. If they stay away then its a swing to the Tories. So the objective for Labour is getting the activists out and to engage the youth voters out there. This shouldn't be too hard either, with Brexit being an issue that should get them out to vote. Add in a liberal and aggressive green policy and you could have a winner for Labour with the youth.

Zubeneschamali

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I think it's too late for the cancel brexit / remain option.

A 2nd referendum looks likely to me, and then its 50-50.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

On the polls, this tweet seems to explain why you are seeing such difference between predictions from basically the same data for the polling companies.

https://twitter.com/harrydcarr/status/1173145606484873217?s=20

So on the assumption that the youth vote is more energised the result is neck and neck between Labour and the Tories. If they stay away then its a swing to the Tories. So the objective for Labour is getting the activists out and to engage the youth voters out there. This shouldn't be too hard either, with Brexit being an issue that should get them out to vote. Add in a liberal and aggressive green policy and you could have a winner for Labour with the youth.

They completely missed the youth, first-time voting phenomenon that mobilised behind Labour last time which is what skewed the 2017 polls so badly. So maybe the temptation this time around will be to over-compensate for that trend and, at the same time, completely miss some other new, first-time trend that significantly effects the vote.

That said, there was a story in the Guardian and maybe other papers last week about a surge in new voters registering so that's more likely to be a labour initiative than anything else you'd think. A good chunk of the brexit vote was by people who never bother to vote in elections, so unless they can be convinced that an election is basically another proxy brexit vote, it may be that a lot of them will simply stay at home.

CelticRambler

Making a GE a proxy Brexit vote is quite a gamble, though. It only takes one serious campaign blunder (e.g. TM's dementia tax) to shove the Brexit element off to one side for a while. If that "while" happens close to polling day, it'll skew the GE result, but whichever majority is returned will then spin the result as a Brexit mandate.

For which reason, Labour are right to resist Johnson's "chicken" taunts in not jumping at the chance of an election right now - because the Tory Dirty Tricks Brigade will surely be spending a fortune trying to manufacture dementia tax moments out of Labour policies in the hope of getting exactly that kind of false mandate for a hard Brexit.

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

They completely missed the youth, first-time voting phenomenon that mobilised behind Labour last time which is what skewed the 2017 polls so badly. So maybe the temptation this time around will be to over-compensate for that trend and, at the same time, completely miss some other new, first-time trend that significantly effects the vote.

That said, there was a story in the Guardian and maybe other papers last week about a surge in new voters registering so that's more likely to be a labour initiative than anything else you'd think. A good chunk of the brexit vote was by people who never bother to vote in elections, so unless they can be convinced that an election is basically another proxy brexit vote, it may be that a lot of them will simply stay at home.

This far out, election hasn't even been called yet, we have no idea what the potential turnout will be. It is guesswork based on past trends for the polling companies. That is why we are seeing such swings in the polls so it is essentially a little useless right now. The wildcard that happens in a campaign is unknown as well so we won't know how that would affect the result (Dementia TAX!) either.

Basically, we can see how bad as a trend parties are doing, but it doesn't mean much at this stage as Johnson could break the law before the election.

Capt'n Midnight

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If the UK gets readmitted it won't get the rebate back, it might be able to win a derogation on the Euro (although it adopting the Euro would be a way of firmly stopping this crisis from happening again) and would almost certainly be allowed to opt out of Schengen as it is really of little benefit for an island state.

Schengen is our call.

If we drop the CTA and join Schengen then the UK would have no choice.
"We have to leave No Deal on the table"

The Euro could be like Denmark or Sweden, joining when converges.

The rebate , ha ! ha !

SeaBreezes

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I think it's too late for the cancel brexit / remain option. It's too far gone down the path to the point that they're is a clamour for a no deal exit, regardless of how stood an idea that is.

But maybe, a campaign to revoke A50, but then properly debate what the way forward is.
E.g. if immigration is an issue then address that

Either way the UK loses. If they leave Scotland and ni will break off and join eu. If they don't leave brexiteers will tear English society apart.