Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Tell me how

Brexitcast continues to surprise me with its jocular approach to the topic given 4 very senior journalists involved.
Youd think by now they would be focusing on massively serious elements but they continue to treat it like a curious event rather than the serious matter it is.

Part if me now thinks it's because they don't want to showcase the ineptitude of the British position.

https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1173174621161447427?s=19

Enzokk

Tell me how wrote: »

Brexitcast continues to surprise me with its jocular approach to the topic given 4 very senior journalists involved.
Youd think by now they would be focusing on massively serious elements but they continue to treat it like a curious event rather than the serious matter it is.

Part if me now thinks it's because they don't want to showcase the ineptitude of the British position.

https://twitter.com/BBCSounds/status/1173174621161447427?s=19

Best BBC Podcast that, apparently. The criticisms of their work has been plentiful already but they need to be careful in not trying to become part of the story. I feel Kuenssberg has gone past that point already, having had a documentary on her work during this and following her around. Her job is to report the news, not be the news.

woohoo!!!

Johnsons only option is to continue with the anti democratic attack line. A PM hurling from the ditch. I'd say he's calculating to get a majority in a GE and move swiftly towards a deal. The difficulty for him is, if the gamble doesn't work and he's the one that's been shouting for an election, then no deal consequnces will start to stick to him.

From the EUs perspective, may be better to let the dust settle and say no an extension request if one forthcoming. Not a lot to be gained to roll in the mud with the intrigues of what passes for UK politics these days.

Leroy42

I agree, I can see no advantage to an extension. I get we all want to avoid No Deal, but it appears that Johnson, the cabinet and a sizeable portion of the UK electorate want no deal and at this point any deal agreed is almost worthless.

If Johnson does manage to get a deal through, clearly someone is going to lose out. Be it DUP, Scotland, Ireland or the EU. And waiting in the wings in Farage and a BP who will push the Johnson capitulation line to win seats off Tories and cost them any chance of a majority.

At the end, as it was at the start, all of this is about the Tory party and how to protect itself. For some reason they fear BP far more than the LibDems.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

I get we all want to avoid No Deal, but it appears that Johnson, the cabinet and a sizeable portion of the UK electorate want no deal and at this point any deal agreed is almost worthless.

May couldn't get a deal through, and Johnson doesn't even have her working majority. He cannot possibly get a deal through.

Parliament won't allow No Deal.

They will get another extension and have an election and eventually a referendum, revoke A50 and that'll be that.

farmchoice

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May couldn't get a deal through, and Johnson doesn't even have her working majority. He cannot possibly get a deal through.

Parliament won't allow No Deal.

They will get another extension and have an election and eventually a referendum, revoke A50 and that'll be that.

i agree, about 6 months ago i predicted the second ref will be june 2020 and im going to stick with that.

woohoo!!!

Certainly a possibility. At this stage if such comes to pass, it won't silence Farage and co, and it won't silence independent calls for Scotland and NI. So even in a best case scenario, lots of uncertainty, no getting pandora back in her box.

Peregrinus

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Certainly a possibility. At this stage if such comes to pass, it won't silence Farage and co, and it won't silence independent calls for Scotland and NI. So even in a best case scenario, lots of uncertainty, no getting pandora back in her box.

Nerdy nitpick: Pandora wasn't in the box; it was she who opened the box.

Kermit.de.frog

Johnson and Juncker press conference is at 2:15.

Hopefully some of the nonsense can be cut through.

The Finnish are saying there has been nothing from the British side that comes remotely close to what the backstop would deliver in terms of certainty for Ireland.

Usurper.

There won't be anything concrete from Johnson this side of an election surely

Is the plan for a extension and then a deal after the election ?

Peregrinus

Usurper. wrote: »

There won't be anything concrete from Johnson this side of an election surely

Is the plan for a extension and then a deal after the election ?

Is there a plan for anything at all?

Or did there used to be a plan, but it fell to bits when he overplayed his hand, and now he's flying by the seat of his pants?

is_that_so

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson and Juncker press conference is at 2:15.

Hopefully some of the nonsense can be cut through.

The Finnish are saying there has been nothing from the British side that comes remotely close to what the backstop would deliver in terms of certainty for Ireland.

I actually don't expect much of anything, just the usual well-meaning determination to make progress.

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is there a plan for anything at all?

Or did there used to be a plan, but it fell to bits when he overplayed his hand, and now he's flying by the seat of his pants?

Did you not read about the chess board?

Usurper.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is there a plan for anything at all?

Or did there used to be a plan, but it fell to bits when he overplayed his hand, and now he's flying by the seat of his pants?

He needs an election,that's for sure

Sam Russell

Usurper. wrote: »

He needs an election,that's for sure

Which is exactly why the opposition should not allow one for at least six months. Whatever happens between now and then would be very bad for the Tories.

Of course, is the SC finds the Scottish decision is correct and BJ lied to the Q then he is toast. If he does not resign, then a VoNC in him will force him out.

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

Which is exactly why the opposition should not allow one for at least six months. Whatever happens between now and then would be very bad for the Tories.

Of course, is the SC finds the Scottish decision is correct and BJ lied to the Q then he is toast. If he does not resign, then a VoNC in him will force him out.

And who will table that?

The right thing to do would be to stand back and leave it as the only possible way out for the Tories - that they would be forced to table a VONC in themselves... that would take this to new levels of absurdity.

trellheim

Of course, is the SC finds the Scottish decision is correct and BJ lied to the Q then he is toast

Plus all the privy councillors who went along with it, very difficult to firewall that puppy off, so the whole cabinet nearly

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson and Juncker press conference is at 2:15.

Hopefully some of the nonsense can be cut through.

The Finnish are saying there has been nothing from the British side that comes remotely close to what the backstop would deliver in terms of certainty for Ireland.

Id bet money he's offering Juncker an NI backstop and dump the DUP

Im not sure even that would pass through HOC but it will be on the table before October 31st

Usurper.

How does he offer anything with no power
to deliver

briany

VinLieger wrote: »

Id bet money he's offering Juncker an NI backstop and dump the DUP

In that case, what's old is new again.

Akrasia

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Johnsons only option is to continue with the anti democratic attack line. A PM hurling from the ditch. I'd say he's calculating to get a majority in a GE and move swiftly towards a deal. The difficulty for him is, if the gamble doesn't work and he's the one that's been shouting for an election, then no deal consequnces will start to stick to him.

From the EUs perspective, may be better to let the dust settle and say no an extension request if one forthcoming. Not a lot to be gained to roll in the mud with the intrigues of what passes for UK politics these days.

This would be an awful strategy. If he campaigns in a GE based on delivering an ultra hard brexit and somehow manages to get a majority, and then he tries to use that majority to push through something akin to May's deal with a few minor changes, then he's setting himself up for a backbench rebellion that would render his majority meaningless.

If he campaigns on a hard brexit and ends up in a coalition with the Brexit party, then between Farage and the ERG, he would have no majority for any kind of Deal with the EU either.

swampgas

It's looking like a hard Brexit to me. This will be a disaster for many but appeals to a large group of disparate people:

• Disaster capitalists like JRM
• DUP factions who want the GFA wrecked, regardless of cost
• Wealthy elites looking to protect offshore money
• Idiots brainwashed by ideology - England throwing off its shackles
• Smart(ish) people seduced by ideology - Empire 2.0
• The people behind the gutter press
• The Atlantic Bridge mob
• Russia / Putin
• Certain right wing US billionaires
• UK politicians that value getting into power and damaging the Tories more than stopping or limiting Brexit
• Scottish nationalists
• Irish nationalists
• Apathetic, bored, useless "let's just get it over with" voters who deserve everything they get.
• Boris Johnson's backers.

And who is in the other corner, winning hearts and minds in favour of the EU? The Guardian? The Lib Dems? (The BBC are useless.)

It's not exactly an even match, is it?

Akrasia

Leroy42 wrote: »

At the end, as it was at the start, all of this is about the Tory party and how to protect itself. For some reason they fear BP far more than the LibDems.

Due to FPTP, the brexit party are a huge threat to the Tories, and the Lib dems are a huge benefit to them

If the Lib Dems split the Labour vote, it will allow the Tories to romp home in a GE, but only if the Brexit party don't also split the Tory vote.

It's a stupid, ridiculous electoral system

Nody

Farage has now come out stating he expects an extension as Boris "new deal" will not pass through the parliament; what's with the lack of faith and hard positive thinking these days in the Brexiteer camp?! We were told that was all that was required and now they are backpedaling...

swampgas

This description by Mike Stuchbery in the ByLine Times of the way the UK has changed in the last few years is (IMO) rather scary. Some of my own experiences visiting the UK regularly over recent years would be similar.
https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/02/goodbye-to-all-that/

One paragraph in particular stood out for me:

The fatal weakness of the English, I believe, is their arrogance – their belief that the same cultivated hatreds that tore other nations apart and launched bloody genocide won’t have the same effect on them. Those that try to hold up a mirror to the past are mocked and scorned.

The next few weeks could mark the point where we finally recognise that the UK has slipped past a point of no return.

fergiesfolly

Would the EU consider it best for all concerned, not to extend the the deadline, let the UK leave with no deal and start to rebuild the relationship again in negotiations afterwards.
Surely there's too much toxicity between the two sides now to have any trust.
UK staying in will mean Brexit MEPs constantly creative havoc in parliament, while UK media spread anti EU propaganda at home.
I know the replies here will talk of the economic hardships and GFA, but how long can this nonsense continue?

ambro25

is_that_so wrote: »

I actually don't expect much of anything, just the usual well-meaning determination to make progress.

I'm on the ground, and have €10 on Bettel outdoing Varadkar if there's a Johnson-Bettel presser.

Juncker is Luxembourgish too, lest people forget: they're politically very astute, but they don't do wooden tongue much. Just ask Asselborn (their SecState, of "f***" at Salvini -fame, back in May).

ath262

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Would the EU consider it best for all concerned, not to extend the the deadline, let the UK leave with no deal and start to rebuild the relationship again in negotiations afterwards.
Surely there's too much toxicity between the two sides now to have any trust.
UK staying in will mean Brexit MEPs constantly creative havoc in parliament, while UK media spread anti EU propaganda at home.
I know the replies here will talk of the economic hardships and GFA, but how long can this nonsense continue?

the UK have to request an extension first, and it appears Boris will resist and probably end up being tied up in some sort of legal wrangles and end up being delayed past Oct 31st, so I think it's possible the decision may be taken out of the EU's hands..



agree with the second part re disruptive UK MEPs etc - imagine Farage or Widdicome as UK commisioner ?

woohoo!!!

Akrasia wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Johnsons only option is to continue with the anti democratic attack line. A PM hurling from the ditch. I'd say he's calculating to get a majority in a GE and move swiftly towards a deal. The difficulty for him is, if the gamble doesn't work and he's the one that's been shouting for an election, then no deal consequnces will start to stick to him.

From the EUs perspective, may be better to let the dust settle and say no an extension request if one forthcoming. Not a lot to be gained to roll in the mud with the intrigues of what passes for UK politics these days.

This would be an awful strategy. If he campaigns in a GE based on delivering an ultra hard brexit and somehow manages to get a majority, and then he tries to use that majority to push through something akin to May's deal with a few minor changes, then he's setting himself up for a backbench rebellion that would render his majority meaningless.

If he campaigns on a hard brexit and ends up in a coalition with the Brexit party, then between Farage and the ERG, he would have no majority for any kind of Deal with the EU either.

Absolutely, yet I don't know what else he's hoping to achieve beyond power. And hoping the EU will blink.

Shelga

Listened to Jo Swinson on Radio 4 this morning and thought she came across as very unlikeable and arrogant. I’m as hardline a Remainer as there could possibly be, but you cannot just say you will unilaterally revoke article 50 and pretend the whole thing never happened. I think this latest Lib Dem policy is just more digging in of heels, no attempt to reach out to the other side, no attempt to reduce the polarity in UK politics at the moment.

She’s clearly trying to be ‘bold’ as the new leader, all over the airwaves claiming she can go from 18 seats to a majority of 330+ in the HoC. It’s one thing to be ambitious, but try not to completely alienate half the electorate as you go. I think their previous policy of a second referendum was ideal- they were unequivocally Remain, but not without the informed consent of the public.

She also completely rubbishes the SNP and Labour in every interview- also unnecessary and damaging, as she’ll likely have to work with one or both of them in the near future.

Labour’s policy makes more and more sense to me. Never thought I’d say that! Imagine if, in theory, the Lib Dems got a majority with something like 35% of the vote (highly unlikely but still). They just revoke article 50 without a vote? Accusations of being undemocratic would be completely valid.