Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No 10 statement

The prime minister reconfirmed his commitment to the Good Friday/Belfast agreement and his determination to reach a deal with the backstop removed, that UK parliamentarians could support.

Just to point out here if the UK wants the backstop removed that would mean any alternatives that do the same thing would in actual fact be permanent.

Being realistic, the line quoted from the No 10 statement cannot happen.
By removing the backstop, the only all-Ireland solution that could work is to have NI remain in the CU and SM. Whilst this would be good for the RoI/EU, it is unlikely to pass through WM because:

• obviously the DUP will protest against this
• Scotland will not be happy at geting the short straw and will look for another Independence Referendum
• NI remaining part of the EU means that the UK is loosening the strings on an old part of their union - can't see the die hards accepting this despite their contempt for Ireland
• anyhow, parliament will vote against anything Boris puts forward IMO

I also note that Boris ruled out an NI only backstop only 5 days ago (but then again, it's Boris we're talking about...).

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

Bit hypocritical of them though, having campaigned for proportional representation, to take advantage of the FPTP system

There is nothing hypocritical in saying FPTP is unfair, but in the unlikely event that it favours us once in a blue moon, we will use that advantage. The 2 main parties use it every day - using it against them can help convince them it is bad.

J Mysterio

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There’s a press conference due shortly. There is a loud pro-EU protest just yards away so that could delay things somewhat.

To wit

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1173571637133926400

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Being realistic, the line quoted from the No 10 statement cannot happen.
By removing the backstop, the only all-Ireland solution that could work is to have NI remain in the CU and SM. Whilst this would be good for the RoI/EU, it is unlikely to pass through WM because:

• obviously the DUP will protest against this
• Scotland will not be happy at geting the short straw and will look for another Independence Referendum
• NI remaining part of the EU means that the UK is loosening the strings on an old part of their union - can't see the die hards accepting this despite their contempt for Ireland
• anyhow, parliament will vote against anything Boris puts forward IMO

I also note that Boris ruled out an NI only backstop only 5 days ago (but then again, it's Boris we're talking about...).

We should get an indication from the Brussels correspondents later today how the meeting actually went (briefings off the record etc). The removing the backstop line doesn't sound encouraging at all though : all Johnson has been talking about for days is how progress is being made.

murphaph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Our exporters, at least, should weather the worst - 2019 sales to Germany almost equalling those to GB:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsjuly2019/

And that's with Brexit stockpiling in effect in the early part of the year! In July this had largely stopped and we can see exports to Germany are far greater than to the UK. In fact we increased our exports to all the major EU economies, in some cases significantly so. There is massive untapped potential across the SM for Irish exporters. Brexit could be a huge blessing in disguise for them as they are effectively forced to diversify and once you realise selling to non-native English speakers is actually possible you will continue to diversify. We've got the language skills in Ireland after 20 years of inward migration from the EU.

quokula

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Lib Dems are a bunch of hypocrites. Look at their stance in Scotland

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17905487.jo-swinson-accused-39-utterly-grotesque-39-hypocrisy-brexit-independence-referendums/

https://mobile.twitter.com/Celebs4indy/status/1173522232322265088

Yeah Labour have consistently been the only adults in the room on Brexit, trying to reconcile the two halves of the country, and been consistently pilloried for being too complex.

As if the entire future of the country for decades to come should only be decided in a way that fits into a cheap soundbite.

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Being realistic, the line quoted from the No 10 statement cannot happen.
By removing the backstop, the only all-Ireland solution that could work is to have NI remain in the CU and SM. Whilst this would be good for the RoI/EU, it is unlikely to pass through WM because:

• obviously the DUP will protest against this
• Scotland will not be happy at geting the short straw and will look for another Independence Referendum
• NI remaining part of the EU means that the UK is loosening the strings on an old part of their union - can't see the die hards accepting this despite their contempt for Ireland
• anyhow, parliament will vote against anything Boris puts forward IMO

I also note that Boris ruled out an NI only backstop only 5 days ago (but then again, it's Boris we're talking about...).

There seems to be a shift happening in NI that is very probably Brexit related:

2017 GE:
DUP 36.0%
SF 29.4%
SDLP 11.7%
UUP 10.3%
Alliance 7.9%
Other 4.6%

August 2019 opinion poll:
DUP 29%
SF 25%
SDLP 8%
UUP 9%
Alliance 21%
Other 8%

Massive jump for Alliance at the expense of all parties. DUP vote down by 20% and SF vote down by 15%. No doubt that Alliance, which is staunchly pro-Remain, is getting these votes due to Brexit - especially DUP votes.

VinLieger

quokula wrote: »

Yeah Labour have consistently been the only adults in the room on Brexit, trying to reconcile the two halves of the country, and been consistently pilloried for being too complex.

As if the entire future of the country for decades to come should only be decided in a way that fits into a cheap soundbite.

Labour and specifically Corbyn have been consistent in their fence sitting, nothing more.

trellheim

The UK has yet to come forward with a solution to replace the backstop, says the European Commission.

Downing Street said a meeting between Boris Johnson and Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker was "constructive".

But in a statement after the working lunch, the Commission said no proposals had been put forward to replace the controversial Brexit policy.

Mr Johnson has called it "undemocratic" and said it needs to be removed from any deal he would do with the EU.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49709430

20silkcut

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its a good article. The UK is already screwed though, in my opinion. Societal discourse, politics, hopelessnesly riven.

This can't be put back together again, its effectively a civil war, though the violence hasn't started.

Hope it doesn’t spill over to us.

Seth Brundle

20silkcut wrote: »

Hope it doesn’t spill over to us.

Why would it?

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49709430

That doesn't sound encouraging. What happened to all Johnson's talk of 'progress'.......wasn't it he who requested the Juncker meting? It hadn't been scheduled and it seems he contacted Juncker.

Enzokk

Here is a link for the press conference,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-ILRqX4GxY

Edit: I hope it is, I have no idea if it started already or not. It is a press conference, supposed to be, with the Luxemburg PM and Johnson.

Strazdas

20silkcut wrote: »

Hope it doesn’t spill over to us.

It wouldn't.....we have no skin in the game, it's purely an internal English crisis.

johnnyskeleton

quokula wrote: »

Yeah Labour have consistently been the only adults in the room on Brexit, trying to reconcile the two halves of the country, and been consistently pilloried for being too complex.

As if the entire future of the country for decades to come should only be decided in a way that fits into a cheap soundbite.

Shelagh Fogarty had an interesting take on it in her show on LBC a few days ago. Basically, people like the simplicity of "no deal" as a slogan and like the clarity of purpose of those who advocate for it e.g. Boris, Farage etc.

The fact that the mature and realistic analysis suggests that a simple solution to a complex problem is a bad idea is largely lost in the noise.

A further factor may be that, for good or ill, the UK's mood seems to consider the Tories more competent at making decisions than Labour are.

So the message from Labour is interpreted as "It's a complex issue, we don't fully know what we want to do, and you don't really trust us to make these decisions on your behalf".

In an election, I think the main changes will be:

1. SNP win most of the Scottish Tory seats
2. A few mariginal rural constituencies go from Labour to Tory and from Tory to Lib Dem
3. London will be slightly more Labour than before, but not massively.
4. Labour will rely on the large Northern metropolitan areas that traditionally vote Labour to vote for them. If they don't, Labour support could collapse.
5. I can't see the Brexit Party or UKIP making any serious inroads into the Tory vote
6. No real change in NI
7. PC, Greens might win or lose a seat, with maybe one or two more independent former Tories/ChangeUK gaining a seat or two

Adding all that up, we would get:

CON: ~300
LAB: ~260
SNP: ~50
LibD: ~15
DUP: ~10
SF: ~7
Ors: ~8

So its looking like another hung parliament, only with even greater gridlock - only Con, DUP and maybe the odd Brexit Party person will support no deal, which at most is 312 MPs. Equally Cons lose ERG and DUP support if they go for a deal that includes a backstop, which brings them down to ~230-240.

Unless the Conservatives and Brexit run a campaign that resonates with Brexit clarity for northern urban voters, such that they abandon Labour and Labour collapse, I don't see anything changing. I can't see Lib Dems or Labour sweeping the board

trellheim

An interesting point made on Sky news .... as to why BJ is apparently keeping stuff under his hat .


if the answer is " alternative arrangements - i.e. tech wheezes" why is it being kept under wraps - its nothing new ?

That is strange ! because its been all over the place already.

Kermit.de.frog

They are not divulging anything because it's a load of nonsense and they know it's a load of nonsense.

They want to take it down to the last EU summit hoping EU leaders will put pressure on Ireland.

Igotadose

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is a link for the press conference,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-ILRqX4GxY

Edit: I hope it is, I have no idea if it started already or not. It is a press conference, supposed to be, with the Luxemburg PM and Johnson.

So far it's been chants of "Brexit is for losers" and playing "Hit the Road, Jack."

Bercow speaking at NYU is more interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NQfwEPgPxI

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They are not divulging anything because it's a load of nonsense and they know it's a load of nonsense.

They want to take it down to the last EU summit hoping EU leaders will put pressure on Ireland.

Yes, I'm very sceptical anything is going on behind the scenes. if there was genuine rapid progress, we'd surely be getting rumours of it.

LeinsterDub

quokula wrote: »

Yeah Labour have consistently been the only adults in the room on Brexit, trying to reconcile the two halves of the country, and been consistently pilloried for being too complex.

As if the entire future of the country for decades to come should only be decided in a way that fits into a cheap soundbite.

You can't reconcile two diametrically opposite positions. There is no middle, you're either in or out.

20silkcut

J Mysterio wrote: »

Its a good article. The UK is already screwed though, in my opinion. Societal discourse, politics, hopelessnesly riven.

This can't be put back together again, its effectively a civil war, though the violence hasn't started.

I remember in school we studied the novel lord of the flies by William Golding. The parallels with the brexit situation are startling. Posh English school boys stranded on a desert island. Started off pragmatic and organized invented a beast to fear and hate and descended into chaos. If that’s a blueprint for all this it doesn’t end well.

20silkcut

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Why would it?

Just we are geographically very close and we have nutters over here too.

Lots of latent anti immigrant sentiment in this country too.

Headshot

You have to laugh at the UK Government who are saying that Brexit discussion with intensify and meetings with take place daily now.

They are bit late aren't they for a government who are meant to be looking for a deal. It's all smoke and mirrors with the Government. They have no intention of getting a deal.

J Mysterio

Boris came out and was roundly booed.
I don't think they will have the conference with the booing.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Boris came out and was roundly booed.
I don't think they will have the conference with the booing.

And......it's cancelled.

Headshot

How does this look that the Luxembourg PM Xavier having new conference on his own without BJ....

It's great to see the Luxembourg PM backing Ireland all the way and the crowd cheering him on. Great to have friends across Europe

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And......it's cancelled.

What on earth happened......he left the Lux PM to face the music alone?

Kermit.de.frog

Headshot wrote: »

How does this look that the Luxembourg PM Xavier having new conference on his own without BJ....

It's great to see the Luxembourg PM backing Ireland all the way and the crowd cheering him on. Great to have friends across Europe

Really laying in.

"Won't let Varadkar down"

"No new proposal, time for talk is over"

"No extension unless valid reason"

The crowd cheered when he was talking about the border.

Zubeneschamali

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

5. I can't see the Brexit Party or UKIP making any serious inroads into the Tory vote

UKIP are history, but the polling shows that IF Brexit does not happen in October, the Brexit Party takes something like 10% from the Tories in a subsequent election.

By my reckoning, there were 67 seats where the Tories won by less than a 10% margin, with 8 going to the LDs and the rest to Labour.

[Edit: this is not my prediction, just the result of applying a 10% bite out of the tory vote globally to all the 2107 results. Other things will also have changed since then]

Headshot

Xavier Bettel is really laying it into Brexit

Go wan Luxembourg PM