Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Peter Bone on Sky News:



That is the nub of the issue. The backstop is simply a door opener, which to be fair to the EU they foresaw and therefore agreed with the UK government that the extension would not be used for any renogiation.

The UK has, just like the December 2017 agreement, gone back on its promise yet they are supposed to take seriously when the new PM says that we should just trust them on the backstop issue!

Don't forget, they are 'standing by to negotiate in good faith'.

Looking forward to them negotiating with US, Trump pulled out of visiting Denmark because their PM slapped down his idea of them selling Greenland to the US.

trellheim

“I think the backstop makes it impossible, but if of course, you’re going to reopen the withdrawal agreement then you can reopen everything and see if we can get a proper deal.”

any attempt to seize control of the narrative you see.

Seth Brundle

Slightly off topic but Carrie Symonds has been refused a US visa for previously travelling to Somaliland...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1168209/Boris-Johnson-latest-news-Carrie-Symonds-brexit-no-deal-US-visa-rejected-donald-trump

Water John

Saw that, Tom Newton Dunn suspected that info was leaked by Johnson advisors in No 10.

CelticRambler

Probably pointless asking for a reply, but I'll try anyway. If most of your family voted for Brexit to "take back control of our borders" ...

Berserker wrote: »

Originally Posted by Leroy42
"We need to take back control of our borders". You remember that don't you. Was, and continues to be said by Brexiteers. How is that the EU's fault?

I remember it well. It's one of the reasons why most of my family voted for Brexit.

... how do they expect the government to control their borders if they don't build suitable infrastructure on the border?

Berserker wrote: »

The UK has said that it will not build a hard border on the island of Ireland. Case closed on that front.

Professor Moriarty

A poll released today has the Tories at 42%and Labour at 28%. Corbyn.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A poll released today has the Tories at 42%and Labour at 28%. Corbyn.

Many will try and blame this solely on the medias bias against him, which is deffinitely part of it but without a doubt none of the garbage they throw at him would be able to stick so easily if he wasn't so damn indecisive and constantly waiting to see which way the wind was blowing on every issue

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A poll released today has the Tories at 42%and Labour at 28%. Corbyn.

But Brexit Party are down to 5%

No matter which way these polls divide the numbers between the two, they are always sharing the same 45%-47% or so!

prawnsambo

Laois_Man wrote: »

But Brexit Party are down to 5%

No matter which way these polls divide the numbers between the two, they are always sharing the same 45%-47% or so!

Not exactly. Comparison with last poll shows a big jump for the Tories that's not refllected in a corresponding drop for the BP.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

But Brexit Party are down to 5%

No matter which way these polls divide the numbers between the two, they are always sharing the same 45%-47% or so!

Cameron got a majority with 37% so they would do very well with 42%

road_high

Peregrinus wrote: »

I'm not sure that the British government has said that. They have said rather lesser things.

For example, in his letter yesterday to Tusk, Johnson says:

"This government will not put in place infrastructure, checks, or controls at the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland."

This only refers to what is done actually at the border. It's nothing like a commitment not to put in place a hard border since, obviously, the border can be hardened by infrastructure, checks and controls not physically located at the border. And of course it can be hardened by the imposition of tariffs on cross-border trade, something Johnson's letter fails entirely to mention.

Plus, please note, even this watered-down statement only refers to what "this government" will do. "This government" is not likely to last very long, especially if there is a no-deal Brexit. Johnson isn't making any commitment to legislate this commitment; it's just a policy which will be pursued while "this government" endures.

The truth is that the UK government does intend to do things which will give rise to a hard border. We know this if only because, if they had no intention of doing anything which would harden the border, they would accept the backstop obligations, since those obligations would not constrain them from doing anything they wanted to do.


If the UK unilaterally terminates the arrangements which currently avoid a hard border, and unilaterally refuses to enter into the replacement arrangements it has negotiated for the same purpose, then, yes, there will be hard border, and the EU will expect Ireland to do what Member States on the external border of the EU have to do. Ireland will not refuse; we are not going to sacrifice our place in the single market in the interest of the Brexiter project.

J Mysterio wrote: »

It's a huge strain on relations and will probably get worse yet.
I'm not anticipating the return of No Dogs, No Irish signs, but casual discrimination might well make a come back.

Irish people are of course defending Ireland and criticizing the UK on social media etc., many in the UK are taking umbrage at this.

In a No Deal scenario, relations will be extremely strained and would be as low as has been since... what? Independence?

It's a long way from the sort of good vibes and convivial spirit we had when Cameron apologized for Bloody Sunday and the Queen had her nice little visit.

And all 100% brought about by the English themselves. Let them rant and rave I really couldn’t give a hoot - they’re continuously damaging their own reputation really with this rhetoric. Who wants to deal with a racist, unreliable partner? Ireland needs to keep looking outward strengthening our economic, social
and political ties to the outside world and our friends in Europe who are genuine.

quokula

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Cameron got a majority with 37% so they would do very well with 42%

If a general election gets called, the media will be forced to cover Labour's actual policies and give them air time, and voters will be forced to actually think about the realities of the manifestos and what impact each party's positions would have on their lives.

In which case, much like the last general election, the result will be very different to the polling predicting a Tory landslide.

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

If a general election gets called, the media will be forced to cover Labour's actual policies and give them air time, and voters will be forced to actually think about the realities of the manifestos and what impact each party's positions would have on their lives.

In which case, much like the last general election, the result will be very different to the polling predicting a Tory landslide.

Much as I'd like to think that would be the case, the onrushing brexit train will drown everything else out. Those headlights will be mesmerising to all concerned.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not exactly. Comparison with last poll shows a big jump for the Tories that's not refllected in a corresponding drop for the BP.

I find those numbers hard to believe. Tories look way too high compared to all other recent polls.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A poll released today has the Tories at 42%and Labour at 28%. Corbyn.

That seems like a crazy swing.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1164108955339120641?s=21

I’m not sure Corbyn as a leader can be blamed as he was also leader last time. Looks like Brexit voters have deserted labour though. The rest of the swing to the tories is from the Brexit party and UKIP.

funkey_monkey

Is this percentage split consistent with the other pollsters?

quokula

prawnsambo wrote: »

Much as I'd like to think that would be the case, the onrushing brexit train will drown everything else out. Those headlights will be mesmerising to all concerned.

Remember this?



It's literally the exact same situation repeated, they've got a new Tory leader ranting on about No Deal, getting a bump in the polls, then when an election happens and there's actual focus on real policies, people start to think "hey what about the degradation of the NHS? Or education? Or the rise in crime? Or all my local community facilities that have been closing down?"

prawnsambo

I would consider YouGov a better indicator tbh.

This is their latest.

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

Remember this?

It's literally the exact same situation repeated, they've got a new Tory leader ranting on about No Deal, getting a bump in the polls, then when an election happens and there's actual focus on real policies, people start to think "hey what about the degradation of the NHS? Or education? Or the rise in crime? Or all my local community facilities that have been closing down?"

Yes, I do. And the difference between then and now is? Yes, now brexit isn't a far off issue with negotiations and agreements yet to be completed. And of course Labour didn't actually 'win' that election, although they gained 30 seats.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's no easy route to an election victory for Johnson; the issue is whether before 31 Oct or after is the better of two not very good prospects.

I see your point that Johnson might like a No Deal Brexit immediately followed by an election, but there are several obstacles in his way. Parliament is one, but perhaps more serious are all the folks in the City of London who know that No Deal is a catastrophe and have been assuming up to now that that means it won't happen.

If Boris calls an election for No Deal Day + 1, these people will finally have to accept that No Deal is going to happen, and they will have several weeks, the length of the GE campaign, to act.

Sterling crashes hard, capital flight, Bank of England emergency powers, chaos in the markets... the pressure on Johnson to stop the ongoing disaster by requesting an A50 extension will be irresistible.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

It actually makes sense that Brexit and UKIP will trend towards 0% if the cons are going ahead with Brexit.

swampgas

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I see your point that Johnson might like a No Deal Brexit immediately followed by an election, but there are several obstacles in his way. Parliament is one, but perhaps more serious are all the folks in the City of London who know that No Deal is a catastrophe and have been assuming up to now that that means it won't happen.

If Boris calls an election for No Deal Day + 1, these people will finally have to accept that No Deal is going to happen, and they will have several weeks, the length of the GE campaign, to act.

Sterling crashes hard, capital flight, Bank of England emergency powers, chaos in the markets... the pressure on Johnson to stop the ongoing disaster by requesting an A50 extension will be irresistible.

Unfortunately I fear the pressure will be resistable. Given past performance, it's conceivable that Johnson and his team will double down on the brinkmanship and just insist that the EU cut them some slack - and hope they blink first. Dangerous times.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I see your point that Johnson might like a No Deal Brexit immediately followed by an election, but there are several obstacles in his way. Parliament is one, but perhaps more serious are all the folks in the City of London who know that No Deal is a catastrophe and have been assuming up to now that that means it won't happen.

If Boris calls an election for No Deal Day + 1, these people will finally have to accept that No Deal is going to happen, and they will have several weeks, the length of the GE campaign, to act.

Sterling crashes hard, capital flight, Bank of England emergency powers, chaos in the markets... the pressure on Johnson to stop the ongoing disaster by requesting an A50 extension will be irresistible.

Exactly what I was saying with my Schroedinger's brexit analogy. The minute the date is set, the state of the cat (brexit) is officially known. The background economic hum will become an all-consuming roar.

serfboard

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

all the folks in the City of London ... know that No Deal is a catastrophe and have been assuming up to now that that means it won't happen.

If Boris calls an election for No Deal Day + 1, these people will finally have to accept that No Deal is going to happen, and they will have several weeks, the length of the GE campaign, to act.

Sterling crashes hard, capital flight, Bank of England emergency powers, chaos in the markets... the pressure on Johnson to stop the ongoing disaster by requesting an A50 extension will be irresistible.

This is why I thought that the referendum wouldn't be passed - that these people would unleash a proper "Project Fear" and frighten the voters into voting No. Of course, the original referendum didn't envisage no deal, and that, combined with complacency, combined with the other "Project Fear" (fear of immigrants) contributed to the vote passing.

Now that no-deal really is coming down the tracks, I too would expect the City of London people, plus the manufacturing sector (plenty of northerers there), plus the farmers, to galvanise to stop it.

quokula

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yes, I do. And the difference between then and now is? Yes, now brexit isn't a far off issue with negotiations and agreements yet to be completed. And of course Labour didn't actually 'win' that election, although they gained 30 seats.

In hindsight it's easy to say that, but prior to the campaigning, Brexit was considered the utterly dominant and indeed only issue at that time, just as it is now. Then the election came along and Corbyn was the only leader who wanted to offer solutions to real, tangible things that affected people's lives, and got a big bounce from it. I think we'd see the same again.

serfboard

quokula wrote: »

Corbyn was the only leader who wanted to offer solutions to real, tangible things that affected people's lives, and got a big bounce from it.

The polls before the last election were so spectacularly wrong because they under-polled young people who turned out in large numbers to vote Labour.

Young people this time might be more likely to vote Green - to save the environment for themselves, and to unequivocally stay in the EU.

BluePlanet

J Mysterio wrote: »

Obviously that is/ would be the argument.

We are trying to put forward a hypothesis as to what Johnson/ the UK could conceivably be at though. Something not making any sense has not hindered Brexiteers in any way in many years.

'We in the UK won't accept Backstop proposals if Ireland won't do something backstoppy.'

BoJo is trolling.
But there is a sliver of something in here, whether he fully realizes it or not.
If the BackStop has a democratic deficit, then obviously so does this kite.

So the puzzle remains: how to solve this democratic deficit?
We already have a forum for this.

Why not hold 2 referendums on the same day.
1 in IRE, 1 in NI just like the GFA.

Question put to the people:
1-Customs Align with the EU?
2-Customs Align with the UK?

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

In hindsight it's easy to say that, but prior to the campaigning, Brexit was considered the utterly dominant and indeed only issue at that time, just as it is now. Then the election came along and Corbyn was the only leader who wanted to offer solutions to real, tangible things that affected people's lives, and got a big bounce from it. I think we'd see the same again.

My response could equally accuse you of colouring your opinion with hindsight. I haven't denied that Corbyn's manifesto resonated with voters. But saying that brexit was front and centre during that election isn't really relevant since both main parties were saying exactly the same thing about it in their manifestos; that they'd honour the result of the referendum. And nobody was talking about hard brexit as a realistic option. At best it was a catchphrase to underpin getting a good deal. And there won't be a long run up to this one. It'll be short and sweet and Johnson is already out of the traps and it's showing in the opinion polls. Maybe that will change closer to the date, but I wouldn't put money on Corbyn winning the next election. I would be very surprised in fact if Labour don't lose seats.

johnnyskeleton

BluePlanet wrote: »

If the BackStop has a democratic deficit, then obviously so does this kite.

Except the backstop doesnt have a democratic deficit. Its only temporary and conditional i.e. it kicks in if no other solution can be found, until a solution can be found. It also does no more than keep things as they are until the solution is found, and the majority of the people of Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU.

CelticRambler

serfboard wrote: »

Now that no-deal really is coming down the tracks, I too would expect the City of London people, plus the manufacturing sector (plenty of northerers there), plus the farmers, to galvanise to stop it.

Galvanise around who or what?

Besides, we've all seen the interviews with "northerners" and "farmers" and others, who proudly voted in favour of Brexit even though they thought (or know now that) it would be bad for themselves and their business. As for the "City of London people" - well, there's a killing to be made on a falling pound. They were quite happy to force sterling out of the ERM; why wouldn't they enjoy a good Brexit-made run on the pound?

Nope: the tea-leaves on my plate of chicken entrails are all over the place, which convinces me that a 2019 election - before or after Halloween - will see the most diverse group of MPs ever to sit in Westminster, and no two parties having the numbers and sufficient shared ideology to form a strong and stable coalition. The 2020s in the UK will be like Italy in the 90s.